Mariners pen: 3.83 ERA
Royals pen: 5.02 ERA

Mariners relievers gave up 25 runs in Felix’s starts
Royals relievers gave up 44 runs in Zack’s starts

Zack’s blown leads in 2009:

May 21 – left in the 7th with a 3-2 lead, lost 8-3
June 11 – left in the 8th with a 2-1 lead, lost 4-3
July 18 – left in the 8th with a 2-1 lead, lost 4-2
July 29 – left in the 7th with a 3-2 lead, lost 7-3

Also:
May 9 – complete game 1-0 loss – only run scored on a misplay in RF by Jose Guillen
July 3 – Zack gives up just two ER in 6 IP, two runs score on an error, and the Royals score no runs in support
August 14 – left in the 8th with a 0-0 tie, lost 1-0 September 5 – Zack gives up just one unearned run over eight innings, Royals lose 2-1 in eleven innings
September 11 – Zack gives up just one run over seven innings, Royals lose 2-1 in twelve innings

Felix’s blown leads in 2009:

May 14 – left in the 8th with a 2-0 lead, lost 3-2
July 3 – left in the 8th with a 4-3 lead, won 7-6
August 18 – left in the 8th with a 3-1 lead, lost 5-3

Also:
May 30 – left in the 7th down 1-0 giving up an unearned run in 7 IP, Mariners come back to win 4-3 in the 10th
June 5 – left in the 8th, tied 1-1, Mariners lose 2-1
June 21 – left in the 8th down 2-1, Mariners win 3-2
August 12 – left in the 8th of a 0-0 game, Mariners win 1-0 in 12 innings
September 8 – left in the 8th down 2-1, Mariners lose 3-2 in 10 innings

What is the relevance of how the rest of the team performed when a given SP started? Shouldn’t the SP be judged by his own performance?

but this is just sad

I mean, if he were saying he thinks Felix is better going forward, I wouldn’t agree, but I could at least understand it… but he seems to be saying Felix was better last year

I am the crazy one?

and old “Rob and Rany on the Royals” during Greinke’s initial good run (I think) where either Rob or Rany cites James saying he didn’t think Greinke was going to be all that great?

BJ missed it on this one.

Felix pitched about 9 more innings and a lower BB/9, but Zack had a better, ERA, tRA, FIP, xFIP, K/9, K/BB, one of the worst defenses in baseball (Felix had the best), a less pitcher-friendly park…
’
If we’re going to get into stupid reasons, let’s just go to WPA for 2009:

Felix: 3.26
Zack: 6.07

How about “clutch”

Felix: -0.16
Zack: +0.70

Was Bill holding up three fingers when he said this? What were his pants like? Did Kevin Keitzmann come up?

those 24 runs constitute a 20% difference, which is big:

20% is the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 hitter
20% is the difference between a .300 OBP and a .360 OBP
20% is the difference between a .400 SLG and a .480 SLG
.700 to .840 OPS (Elvis Andrus to Matt Kemp)

…a team sometimes gets more complacent behind a really good starter and hence might score fewer runs for him. This would favor Greinke over Hernandez, I think, in that Greinke’s team had a lousy offense but might’ve still gotten complacent when he started. Sigh.

Then again, I’ve also heard the argument that a team might get energized for their top starter—-putting more effort into the game. They might also play confidently and hence “looser,” which sometimes contributes to offensive outbursts.

From the starter’s perspective, I’ve heard many times that they throw with more confidence—-i.e. more inside pitches—-when they have a lead. They move faster and therefore expend less energy.

Overall, I’d say the psychological factors go in favor of the starter who performed better on a team that scores less. That starter overcomes more.

And I agree that “only” 24 runs is a misnomer. That’s a big difference—-both materially and psychologically for a starter. – TL

just a lil bit

that’s unacceptably moronic

I was trying to flag it and it would let me because it was already gone.