Mauer Contract
Does anyone else think the Twins overpaid for Mauer big time? I guess they probably had to, but this looks huge to me.
almost 2 years ago
Freneau
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Not a single negative Twins comment
Sometimes the best way to convince someone he is wrong is to let him have his way. --- Red O'Donnell
by averagegatsby on Mar 21, 2010 9:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe...
But there wasn’t a single voice of concern.
Sometimes the best way to convince someone he is wrong is to let him have his way. --- Red O'Donnell
by averagegatsby on Mar 22, 2010 1:32 PM EDT up reply actions
That is
what the excess in the contract is paying for, so to speak. Not saying it’s smart or stupid, just what it is…
Murphy was an optimist.
by The Ol' Perfesser on Mar 22, 2010 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Of course the writers think he would have gone for 200-250 million
for 10 years on the open market. I sort of have my doubts on that. For one thing, there will be another data point on him after this year, lets see if he can be the MVP again before we proclaim him the second best postion player going forward. I don’t see the point in the Twins signing him after what was likely his career year and paying market price.
Go Royals!
There is a full no-trade clause...
But that doesn’t mean that Mauer couldn’t waive it right?
Sometimes the best way to convince someone he is wrong is to let him have his way. --- Red O'Donnell
by averagegatsby on Mar 23, 2010 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Pinstripes
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 23, 2010 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions
Chump change.
You’d have to be a chump to pay it. Seems excessive, potentially crippling to a small market team.
You think Jose Guillen's contract was a noose around payroll's neck?
Wait til years 4, 5, and 6, when Mauer can no longer play catcher, and his bat starts to falter. Years 7 and 8, the Twins fans will be going nuts over this. Way too much money, I think Mauer probably couldn’t have done better than this on the open market, but who knows. 8 years at $23M per, isn’t terrible. It’s the length of the contract that is on a guy that’s injury prone already.
and the catcher thing is a catch-22
it makes him more valuable… but also promises to age him quickly… so do you shift him to 1b/dh? lot less valuable
Yes, he will need to average aboutg 6 WAR/yr for it to work.
Let me go see what The Book blog is saying.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
Is averaging 6 WAR per year over 8 years even possible?
I suppose it probably is… if he doesn’t get hurt. 28 years old to start 2011.
7.3, 7.3, 6.8, 6.3, 5.7, 5.2, 4.7, 4.7 would be averaging 6.
$23M will likely be worth less as the contract comes to a close too. So let’s say 5% inflation on salaries, so $3.5M per WAR this year. $3.675 next year, 3.86, 4.05, 4.25, 4.47, 4.70, 4.92, and 5.17 in the final year. So assuming a straight line $23M per year, Mauer needs to produce a total of about 42.5 WAR, or 5.31 WAR per year.
I’ve changed my mind. I think this gamble is worth the risk and actually think the Twins may have gotten off with a slight hometown discount, or the contract just looked so big it didn’t seem like a discount to Mauer. I’m sure the Twins took out a hefty insurance policy as part of this as well. If Mauer is injured and loses a season, or significant time (half year), they’d probably receive a payout of a portion of Mauer’s salary. Gotta hedge your bets a bit.
Plus, they get the added bonus of a big signing to bump attendance for their new stadium. Gonna be hard to get people to go to the ballpark to watch them play baseball in the snow. Though after Saturday, I’m not so sure the Royals are safe here in KC this year.
Am I the only one here who thinks evaluating a contract based on a player's WAR is not accurate?
I understand wanting to verify that you are getting value for the money, but there are imperative unaccounted-for variables. Mauer will help fill the stands. It’s a big contract, but if they let him go they might lose a lot of money in the long run. It’s not just about his performance on the field, but the revenue he creates.
Basically, they have gambled big on Mauer (but even this “gamble” is a misnomer because their payroll is not necessarily constant by any means). Mauer is worth far more in terms of fan support in Minnesota than he would have been anywhere else. This is a situation small market teams are going to be forced into though. The Twins needed to re-sign him, and they had to do so at or around the market rate.
how much is he going to help fill the stands in 5 years?
or 4 or 3?
people get used to things
and if Mauer should, gasp, get injured, he’ll get the same response sweeney got: resentment and anger
I agree its a great PR jump for now, but also kinda mitgated by the new park anyway
That's a hell of a lot of risk for the Twins
Eight years is a long time and catchers can break down. If bad knees/back/etc. eventually move him from regular catching duties, there’s no way he’d be able to maintain the high production necessary to warrant that kind of money.
The immoderate moderator
What would he have made on the open market?
I think the effect he probably has off the field attendance and such it’s probably about as fair as it was gonna get. Seems high but the Twins definitely didn’t have the upperhand in this one
I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.
this definitely wasn't much of a hometown discount
though it will be reported as such, if anything it was a hometown overpay
Thats the cost of all that Pauer
Sometimes the best way to convince someone he is wrong is to let him have his way. --- Red O'Donnell
by averagegatsby on Mar 21, 2010 9:34 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
The Only Way
This contract makes sense is if he’s an AS catcher for the length of the deal. I don’t think so.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
Yah, that is what I am thinking too, looks like a really bad deal for the Twins.
With insurance and opportunity costs, this is for over 25 million a year for years 2-9 of Joe Mauer. If he is a 3 WAR player over that time its about a 100 million dollar loss for the Twins. It could likely make the Jose Guillen deal look good.
Go Royals!
So You're Saying
There’s a chance?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 21, 2010 10:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Yah, and I guess the 8 million loss of draft picks for the 2011 draft as well.
So this year they are effectively paying him 22 million instead of 6 million if they had decided to let him walk.
Go Royals!
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