2010 Player Projections - Luke Hochevar
by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 4, 2010 6:20 PM EST
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Let's look at another player projection this Spring Training. Luke Hochevar gets the nod today and thanks to Fangraphs.com for the data.
| Standard Projections | |||||||||||||
| Season | Type | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO |
| 2010 | Bill James | 7 | 12 | 4.95 | 29 | 29 | 171 | 191 | 23 | 58 | 121 | ||
| 2010 | CHONE | 7 | 11 | 4.81 | 28 | 28 | 161 | 181 | 93 | 86 | 21 | 55 | 108 |
| 2010 | Marcel | 7 | 12 | 5.25 | 144 | 158 | 95 | 84 | 19 | 50 | 102 | ||
| 2010 | All Fans (70) | 9 | 11 | 4.74 | 29 | 28 | 166 | 218 | 94 | 87 | 20 | 50 | 127 |
| 2010 | Other Fans (54) | 9 | 11 | 4.76 | 29 | 28 | 164 | 218 | 94 | 87 | 20 | 50 | 125 |
| 2010 | Team Fans (16) | 11 | 11 | 4.69 | 28 | 28 | 172 | 225 | 97 | 90 | 21 | 52 | 134 |
| Advanced Projections | |||||||||
| Season | Type | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | HR/9 | AVG | WHIP | BABIP | FIP |
| 2010 | Bill James | 6.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.21 | 0.284 | 1.46 | 0.317 | 4.66 |
| 2010 | CHONE | 6.0 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.17 | 0.285 | 1.47 | 0.316 | 4.61 |
| 2010 | Marcel | 6.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.19 | 0.280 | 1.44 | 0.314 | 4.69 |
| 2010 | All Fans (70) | 6.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.08 | 0.318 | 1.61 | 0.367 | 4.13 |
| 2010 | Other Fans (54) | 6.9 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.10 | 0.320 | 1.63 | 0.370 | 4.17 |
| 2010 | Team Fans (16) | 7.0 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.10 | 0.317 | 1.61 | 0.368 | 4.12 |
| Value Projections | |||||||
| Season | Type | Starting | Start-IP | Relieving | Relief-IP | RAR | WAR |
| 2010 | All Fans (70) | 25.3 | 165 | 0.1 | 1 | 25.3 | 2.6 |
| 2010 | Other Fans (54) | 24.3 | 163 | 0.1 | 1 | 24.4 | 2.5 |
| 2010 | Team Fans (16) | 26.4 | 172 | 26.4 | 2.7 |
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Comments
I really wanted to run a caption contest with article's image.
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yeah, what's the deal?
i can’t figure out what’s going on in that photo.
by 9il on Mar 4, 2010 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
you can read if you scroll over image that he is making some back handed throw to 1st
No wonder Billy had so many error at first
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 4, 2010 1:28 PM EST up reply actions
Fearless projection
4.25 ERA, 1.300 WHIP, 60 BB, 150 K.
I'm An Agnostic
Where Slim is concerned. Same sounds like the upside to me.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
I'm surprised they have his FIP lower than his ERA
Aren’t sinker pitchers supposed to outperform their FIP since they get more ground balls which FIP doesn’t account for? On the other hand, Luke’s not especially adept at preventing HRs….
I said about the same. 4.6 ERA is my prediction, but that feels a little optimistic.
They are supposed to if the infield behind him can handle a routine grounder
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 4, 2010 12:59 AM EST up reply actions
It's The Grounders
They didn’t get to that killed his stats.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 4, 2010 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
No pitchers are really adept at preventing home runs
they’re just adept at preventing flyballs. Hochevar did have a bit of bad luck with HR/FB last season, but it’s a bit disturbing that his GB/FB ratio has been trending less favorably each season.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 4, 2010 1:17 AM EST up reply actions
I don't really buy that pitchers can't limit HR's
for example, Greinke intentionally pitches to allow more flyballs at home where it’s tough to hit it out of the park, and goes for grounders at smaller parks. Because he’s giving up more of his flies in bigger parks, his HR/FB ratio should be better than most.
Also, I’m inclined to say he’s awesome and it’s hard to hit HR’s against him, but I don’t have the stats for it.
Does he really give up more flies at the K
than on the road?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
yes, actually
not sure if it’s intentional, a park effect, or random variation, but he does according to FanGraphs split pages
But while FB rate is (home/road spltis aside) under a pitchers control, HR/FB isn’t, at least not nearly to the same extent
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 4, 2010 12:28 PM EST up reply actions
HR/FB is defintiely a skill
It’s pretty ridiculous to say that it isn’t. The only reason that it doesn’t appear to be on a a season by season level is because there are only going to be ~300 fly balls allowed by a 200 inning pitch each year. To get it on the same scale as K/PA you would have to have like 5 seasons worth of data.
So I take you think xFIP is useless?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 8, 2010 11:51 AM EST up reply actions
No
Because HR/FB does have a lot of luck in it, and it’s better to regress it 100% to the mean than 0% to the mean. And xFIP predicts ERA in year N + 1 very well because of this.
However, I do dislike the concept of xFIP regressing certain things 100% (HR/FB, Linear Weights on BIP, timing) and the rest 0% (K, BB, FB%). In reality their is a gradience of luck to skill ratio in each of those outcomes, and I think that xFIP perpetuates the idea of “luck” stats.
I feel the same way
it seems like he’s due for some positive regression, but, yeah…
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 4, 2010 1:19 AM EST up reply actions
Nice to see you hanging around Mike.
You can keep in check with my Pitch FX work
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 4, 2010 1:00 AM EST up reply actions
Thanks, Jeff
This is what I do when I’m too restless to sleep. :) That, and being on Twitter is keeping me more in touch with what people are writing.
speaking of Royals pitchers, Mike
does Bannister still throw that weird 88 mph fastball that he did in 2007 or did he scrap that for ground balls?
Hochevar, reasons for optimism
- 4.34 xFIP in 2009
- 4.20 SIERA (new BP stat) in 2009
- 80 strikeouts over his last 85 innings in 2009
- Major league low strand rate among pitchers with 100+ IP in 2009.
- Inflated .330 BABIP, normal range is .290-.300.
- His K/BB rose from 1.53 to 2.30 from 08 to 09
- His K/9 rose from 5.02 to 6.67 from 08 to 09
by rdf8585 on Mar 4, 2010 2:10 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
hochevar has nasty stuff
i don’t really think he gets enough credit… when I watch this guy pitch I see a potential #1 starter, not many pitchers have the array of pitches he has (power four seamer, great two seamer, plus curveball, above average slider)….
In his last 13 starts in 2009, he allowed opposing hitters a .326/.386/.556 line. Watching him pitch, with his stuff, it’s literally just a matter of time in my mind before he’s at worst, a solid #3-4 starter. When I watched Luke pitch last season, I really saw a guy who looked like he was searching for his place in the baseball universe. It might sound dumb, but I’m not sure Luke Hochevar knew last year what kind of a pitcher he was trying to be.
Some of the interviews I’ve heard with him validate this… Royals say be a groundball pitcher, but… why? We saw him do the groundball thing in that 80pitch CG SHO, but then he went power pitcher on the rangers in that 13k game when he was throwing a ridiculous curveball. He really needs to sit down, figure out what the game plan is, and then focus on his best 3-4 pitches.
I think this is the season he starts putting it all together. A lot of this is just going to involve knowing when to go for the strikeout, what pitches to throw with guys on base, having a better defense behind him, and just having that additional confidence that comes from having spent the majority of a full season in the big leagues.
31GS, 195IP, 200H, 174SO, 60BB, ?? ERA
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I kinda disagree, I think
I don’t think Luke’s problem is not knowing what type of pitcher he is. I think his problem is that he is trying to just be one type of pitcher but doesn’t have the control or mental toughness for it.
I think he needs to take a look at Zacks game, how he uses one set of pitches and speeds for starting an inning and a diffrent set of pitches and speeds for important situations.
I think ideally Luke should start with his sinker until a couple of guys get on or someone gets in scoring position, then switch to his power curve. Basically allowing himself to be both a groundball and power pitcher.
Of course a big part of that is going to be McClure getting him to believe he can do it.
I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT
I absolutely agree
Hochevar has really good stuff. To me, the elephant in the room is how much was he tipping his pitches? I might be alone on this but he seem to get ahead of a lot of hitters, and then he was unable to get them out. He would get up with two strikes and then hitters would watch a nasty slider just miss off the outside corner or the curve just drop out of the zone as it they new it was coming and knew it would be a strike. Then when Luke was forced to bring those pitches back over the strike zone or throw a fastball to try and avoid a walk, they’d hit it.
I might be over stating all of that (I didn’t watch every game he picked) but I really remember seeing that a lot. If a lot of that was due to tipping his pitches and that is fixed, it could be a real break out year for him.
On the other hand, maybe his stuff isn’t as good as I think it is and he is just hittable.
Blind optimism
No real reason to believe he’s gonna bust out, but wishing seems acceptable at this point.
That seems like a more appropriate name.
by CentralChamps20?? on Mar 4, 2010 9:37 AM EST reply actions
I have no doubt
He’ll be better than he was last year. But is that the same as better than the projection, which I would call “busting out”?
That seems like a more appropriate name.
by CentralChamps20?? on Mar 5, 2010 2:05 PM EST up reply actions
I have to vote better
Because with 2 outs last year, Hochevar was awful. I can’t remember how many innings he let get out of control with two outs.
I would say that he improves that this year. That will lead to lower runs allowed numbers and hits allowed numbers. He seemed to make some strides towards the end of the year and that leaves me optimistic!
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
I'd vote better
but I’m afraid he’ll go through another entire season tipping his pitches.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
slightly better
and it looks like the fans’ ratings generally agree
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "[my most important sabermetric stats are] runs scored and runs driven in"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 4, 2010 2:40 PM EST reply actions
I can't see it
He’ll have a 15-K performance in there, but I don’t get how he gets the ERA under 5.00.
Murphy was an optimist.
by The Ol' Perfesser on Mar 4, 2010 10:36 PM EST reply actions
Yu-Bet Becoming An
Astronaut would be a start.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 4, 2010 11:55 PM EST up reply actions
In space
no one has lateral movement.
Murphy was an optimist.
by The Ol' Perfesser on Mar 5, 2010 1:22 PM EST up reply actions
I will jump with joy if Luke has 32 healthy starts.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
If this kid can put it together and follow Zack's lead
We should be looking at a 3.81 ERA
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