Defending the Indefensible: Kyle Farnsworth
Before people start calling for my head, let’s get this out of the way: Royals GM Dayton Moore’s decision to sign Kyle Farnsworth prior to the 2009 season to a 2 year, $9 million contract was, in a word, stupid. (Or Moore-onic, your choice.) When you’re operating on a very limited free agent budget, and you have glaring holes at several positions, the last thing you should do is spend 40% of your available funds on a relief pitcher coming off of one of the worst seasons of his career. (The second to last thing you should do is sign Willie Bloomquist. Ever.)
So, just so we’re straight – this post is not intended to justify or excuse Dayton’s disastrous personnel moves in the winter/spring 2009. What it is intended to do, however, is look at Farnsworth, from a performance perspective, in an objective light.
Contract terms aside, was the decision to bring in Farnsworth a good one?
At the conclusion of the 2008 season, the Royals had several apparent weaknesses: the catching options were anemic, there were giant problems in the outfield, the 1B/DH positions were missing either a DH or a 1B, depending on where Butler ended up, and only about half of the rotation looked to be above replacement level.
The bullpen, though, was in the best shape it had been in years, having just posted one of the lowest collective ERAs in the American League. A pair of ill-advised trades in which the team lost Leo Nunez and Ramon Ramirez, however, left Moore in what could best be described as a state of panic. The bullpen, once a source of pride, was now in shambles. What’s a man to do?
If that man is Dayton Moore, the answer is to bring in the beleaguered, yet hard-throwing, Kyle Farnsworth in a reckless attempt to salvage the season. This was the same Kyle Farnsworth who hadn’t posted a positive WAR in three years.
Royals fans expected Farnsworth to fail, and he certainly delivered right out of the gate. He was singlehandedly responsible for the Royals losing the first game of the season, having served up a meatball to Jim Thome that resulted in a game winning 3-run homerun. He went on to allow an additional four runs in his next four appearances (in only 2.1 innings pitched!) The fans’ ire was officially drawn.
A strange thing happened after that point, however. While he became more and more of a pariah among the Royals’ faithful, his pitching improved to a point where his 2009 season was probably the best he’d had in four or five years, and among the best in his career.
As depressing as it may sound, Farnsworth’s performance was probably the third best on the team, behind Soria and Greinke. Look at the numbers:
|
11.72 |
2.72 |
4.31 |
0.85 |
2.21 |
|||
|
9.50 |
2.00 |
4.75 |
0.43 |
2.16 |
|||
|
10.13 |
3.38 |
3.00 |
0.72 |
4.58 |
The walks allowed could have been a bit better, but it was still respectable. Most importantly, he managed the second lowest homerun percentage in his career (after his 2005 campaign, which was also his best season.)
Here’s how Kyle stacked up relative to his fellow Royals.
|
Stat |
Team Ranking* |
|
|
K/9 |
3 |
|
|
BB/9 |
6 |
|
|
HR/9 |
3 |
|
|
K:BB |
3 |
|
|
*out of 23 pitchers, minimum 1 inning pitched |
||
Despite comparing favorably to an all-star and a Cy Young winner in the above categories, Farnsworth had a pretty pedestrian ERA. The reason: Kyle had an obscenely high batting average on balls in play of .387. In fact, it was one of the worst ten BABIP in the league. (Two other Royals actually made the list ahead of him: Yabuta and Dinardo.)
Ironically, in a season in which Farnsworth increased his ground ball rate to 45.8%, it ended up hurting him. That’s how bad the infield defense was last year. (Dinardo, coincidentally, had the highest GB% on the team at 57%, so his BABIP of .428 is less surprising. Greinke and Soria insulated themselves a bit by giving up a higher than average fly ball percentage. Yabuta just sucked.)
Take away the horrible defense behind him, and you’re left with FIP of 3.10, just behind Joakim (2.74) and Zack (2.33).
So why the hatred toward Kyle?
- Fans had a hard time getting over the horrid introduction to Farnsy
- Farnsworth cost way too much
- Farnsworth was really, really bad when it counted (he averaged 10.50 BB/9 during medium or high leverage situations). Of course that was only over 7 innings, and he really wasn’t allowed the opportunity to pitch in those types of situations after the first month.
- He missed a month due to injury
Or at least that’s how it all appeared to the casual observer. I must admit that I didn’t have the fortune/misfortune of seeing too many games live last year due to time differences. As such, it’s entirely possible that I missed the fact that Farnsworth came down with a case of The Grimsley’s; in which he allowed an endless parade of inherited runners to score, something which doesn’t necessarily present itself in the stat sheet.
I guess this all means I’m willing to give Kyle a second chance. I’m actually kind of intrigued by the thought of him becoming a starter, even though I doubt it will happen, and even though I doubt it would really work out that well. But if he’s able to throw 70-80 innings again this year, and put up the same kind of rate stats as in 2009, then he can definitely be an asset to the team, especially now that the infield defense looks like it may have improved. And maybe… just maybe… he might justify his 2010 contract.
Once he gets traded.
3 recs |
57 comments
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Comments
If used correctly kyle can be useful, now if only the Royal's leadership knew how to leverage him correctly.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 4, 2010 9:21 AM EST reply actions
There once was a pitcher named Farns
Who meant not to do his team any harm
But he got so much pay
That there just was no way
That his signing was worth half a darn.
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
by Juancho on Mar 4, 2010 9:23 AM EST reply actions 4 recs
When it was rumored that the Royals were considering signing Farnsworth
…I said that I’d be fine with it up to 1 year, $1M. I didn’t mind him him being on the team (and still don’t) for the right price. He’s not awful. He’s just not very good, and thus not worth much money, especially when relievers of his quality are always pretty easy to find for not much money.
The immoderate moderator
Kiko Calero doesn't have a job yet
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 4, 2010 9:37 AM EST up reply actions
That Dayton Moore always surprises!
Jorge Julio just got signed for $950K + $950K in incentives. I think that’s a fair comp as far as overall perhaps over the last few years. I wouldn’t expect Farnsworth to make a lot more than that.
I bet he does. Not that I think he deserves it, just that I bet other GMs overvalue him. "Our scouts say he throws so hard! If only we could get our pitching coach to work with him, we could straighten him out!"
http://www.royalsreview.com/2008/12/4/680291/kyle-farnsworth-that-s-the
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
"we could straighten him out"
isn’t that the problem, that his fastball is too straight?
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
I have my doubts about Kyle Farnsworth
but you were right about Mike Jacobs, so what do I know?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 4, 2010 9:39 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
A lot of those stats for Kyle were obtained in meaningless innings
When the heat was on, he melted.
Bases Empty: .560 OPS against
Men On: .917 OPS
RISP: .861 OPS
So basically, with men on base, everyone that batted against Farnsworth was better than Billy FREAKIN Butler (.853 OPS).
Are you saying he's not clutch?
Which brings up the serious question, is there such a thing as a “clutch pitching” skill?
The immoderate moderator
Not really, but those are pretty ridiculous splits.
I think a lot of that might have come from entering the game with runners on. He may have felt some added pressure.
Farnsy allowed 9 inherited runners to score out of 21
but he started the year 5 out of 7. So I’m probably a little biased, because I probably watched him blow those games. And his other 4 came in a 2 week stretch in late August/early September.
We have to take into account at least two things. First, on average, batters hit better with runners on base, therefore pitchers are going to have higher OPS against with runners on base than with nobody on. Second, when you get into situational splits for a guy who pitched 37.3 innings, we’re talking about some pretty small sample sizes.
The immoderate moderator
You are correct.
37 IP is itself pretty small. I don’t see how any of the stats above are meaningful between comparing Soria, Farnsy, Greinke, especially when the point of the whole thing is that Farnsy wasn’t that bad, but he had less IP than either of them.
Another thing to keep in mind is that batters reach base more often against bad pitchers
So even if there were no change at all in pitcher performance with runners on base, pitcher stats with runners on base would look worse.
+++++
I hope that’s clear. But if not. Imagine that the entire pitching universe consisted of only two types of pitchers. One type never allows any runners at all. The other type has an OPS against of 0.800 at all times, no matter whether there are runners on base or not.
If each type of pitcher faces the same number of batters, the average OPS against will be 0.400. But the OPS with runners on base will be 0.800. It would be totally incorrect to infer from that statistic that pitchers do worse when there are runners on base.
by Steve Nelson on Mar 4, 2010 11:37 AM EST up reply actions
Reasons for better hitting with runners on base?
1) Pitcher throwing more strikes with men on?
2) Less breaking pitches to keep runners on base?
3) No windup=less velocity and more time to see the ball?
4) No windup=less deception and more ability to see the ball?
5) Pitcher (needlessly) distracted with the baserunner?
That seems like a more appropriate name.
by CentralChamps20?? on Mar 5, 2010 3:09 PM EST up reply actions
all of those things could be possible factors
especially the windup/stretch, but also include that there are some “freebies” with runners on in the form of sac flies/bunts.
it’s also important to remember that worse pitchers allow more baserunners, so they also pitch to more batters with runners on, with the potential to skew the relationship between the two stats.
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "[my most important sabermetric stats are] runs scored and runs driven in"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 5, 2010 3:35 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure, but I know pitchers that just can't handle having people on base.
Also some pitchers have problems going from the stretch vice windup.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 4, 2010 10:02 AM EST up reply actions
Does Farnsy pitch from the windup?
I can’t recall.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Mar 4, 2010 10:34 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I don't know that I'd refer to it as "clutch pitching" per se
But there is a fundamental difference in pitching approach in what we deem “clutch” situations and in what we don’t. That difference: pitching from the stretch as opposed to a full wind-up. That’s a mechanical change which in and of itself results in a qualitative difference in performance for most pitchers. And what type of pitchers would we expect, subjectively, to experience the largest dropoff between the two deliveries?
“Who are ‘guys who throw the ball really hard’?, Alex.”
This space for rent.
But many (perhaps most) relievers pitch exclusively from the stretch
Does Farnsworth ever pitch from the windup? And if so, does he actually pitch worse from the stretch? Does he lose velocity?
The immoderate moderator
He's pretty wound up here

You sometimes learn something everyday.
"We couldn't beat the Chiefs, but we damn near killed their horse."
-- Madden
I don't believe in "clutch"
…but if I did, I would say that Kyle Farnsworth is actually a clutch pitcher. Here were your numbers:
Bases Empty: .560 OPS against
Men On: .917 OPS
RISP: .861 OPS
Others have pointed out that 37.1 innings is a small sample size. So, look at a bigger sample… adding the other 735 innings that Farns has pitched, you get this:
Bases Empty: .748 OPS against
Men On: .754 OPS
RISP: .786 OPS
The pattern in your sample simply disappears.
Also, you didn’t really look at the number that frustrated so many Royals fans this year… his “late and close” split. In 2009, opposing batters OPS’d a whopping 1.249 in the 7th or later with the game on the line. But, for his career, he’s actually BETTER in that circumstance than in any other, holding opponents to an OPS of .738 (as opposed to a total career OPS against of .751). And, keep in mind that those career numbers INCLUDE 2009. A year ago, that late and close number was even lower.
In other words, if you do believe in clutch, then on April 9, 2009, with a one-run lead in the 8th, Kyle Farnsworth out of the ’pen actually made perfect sense (Ponder that one, all you believers in clutch).
by kcemigre on Mar 4, 2010 12:37 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Tatersworth vs Thome
Is more automatic than clutch.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 4, 2010 12:40 PM EST up reply actions
I don't believe in a "clutch " skill either, but there are clutch performances
FanGraphs records this in terms of win probability
For his career, Farnsworth’s “clutch” score is -0.85 wins
For 2009, it was a whopping -2.31
And keep in mind that overall, he faced below-average leverage situations over the season
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 4, 2010 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
That's quite a difference...
…but so long as we’re not talking about a skill, then we’re only measuring noise, right?
That's what I thought I'd seen.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
Don't believe in clutch, I believe in crappy pitchers, crapping their pants
I think “clutch” comes from the fact that when I line up a 10 foot putt with a win on the line, I can’t make it because I get too nervous. I look bad all the time on 10 foot putts. Guys that aren’t nervous or can control it seem to be “clutch”. It works that way in baseball too. Though I wouldn’t call the skill clutch, more like, “performs normally under pressure”.
One big problem I have with “true talent” level, is that, at least to me, it always seems like it should be in flux. Like maybe there is some kind of ceiling your talent can get to, but as you work harder and harder to reach it, you can only approach it asymptotically. Throw in player aging and skill decline, and you are never looking at the same player from game to game. So in effect, trying to measure any part of the player’s game beyond the stats he shows you is just as useless as trying to measure the position and spin of an electron. That doesn’t mean useful information can’t be had, it just means you’ll never know all the information. In short, Farnsy’s career splits are useless as he’s not the same player he was then. You are averaging together all the talent levels he’s ever had. Something for the last 3-5 years would be far more appropriate, the problem with that, is the sample size is still small. There’s just no way to win this game.
So, by your definition of clutch we know this...
George Brett: Non-Clutch
Everyone Else: isn’t telling.
by kcemigre on Mar 4, 2010 2:16 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Actually, in all seriousness...
I totally understand what you’re saying about electrons, but in a conversation like this, “true talent” is a purely theoretical construct, and the construct is useful.
So, if the data fluctuates wildly, there are two possible explanations… either the “true talent” is fluctuating wildly, or the data isn’t measuring something that we should be calling a “talent” in the first place. I tend to believe the latter. And, from a practical perspective, it doesn’t matter whether I’m right or not, since the data isn’t predictive in any case.
And, on the topic of Farnsworth, even if we assume that we’re measuring some sort of “choke” attribute, rather than a “clutch” skill… the overall data going into the 2009 season would have said that Farnsworth doesn’t choke.
by kcemigre on Mar 4, 2010 2:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Well said
Especially:
So, if the data fluctuates wildly, there are two possible explanations… either the "true talent" is fluctuating wildly, or the data isn’t measuring something that we should be calling a "talent" in the first place. I tend to believe the latter. And, from a practical perspective, it doesn’t matter whether I’m right or not, since the data isn’t predictive in any case.
I would also say that in addition to the data not be predictive, it also isn’t very descriptive. While it does tell us how players performed in various situations, it doesn’t tell us if the player choked, or if he was nervous or if varying performances under different circumstances were just the product of luck, randomness, etc.
And, with regard to Farnsworth (who I don’t like on any level), it would be odd that he wasn’t a “nervous choker” throughout his career and then suddenly he got extremely nervous with runners on in 2009 and started choking.
The immoderate moderator
I'd be plenty nervous pitching with the Royals defense behind me.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
Farnsworth has always given up homers at an above average pace
1.3 HR/9 career line, .7 last year. Do we think that’s luck, park factor, or an actual improvement?
I also think part of the reason he looked better last year after his horrendous beginning was because he faced some pretty crappy competition so Trey could get his confidence back up. I’d be interested to know some kind of offensive line from all batters Farnsy faced, matched against his actual line.
For most of his career, I'd say it's his problem
but it is because he’s been a flyball pitcher for most of his career. More flyballs = more homeruns. Now, as far as HR/FB rate goes, much research has shown that how many of the fllyballs go out (adjusting for park, of course) is up to the hitter, not the pitcher
There might be a bit of hope — Farnsworth did have a very favorable GB/FB ratio last season, and he did add a cutter or something like that to induce them. We’ll see.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 4, 2010 11:34 PM EST up reply actions
WPA?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
Kyle Farnsworth is my favorite pitcher
just because i actually stayed glued to the game when he is pitching, just so i can actually say to everyone at work the next day “yes i saw them blow it out their a$$es last night.”
Regardless of who the Chiefs pick at #5 overall, Whitlock will call it the worst pick in the history of the Chiefs. Heres to hoping that #5 pick runs Whitlock out of town.....
by jrcnc on Mar 4, 2010 12:07 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Nope
Can’t agree. Farnsworth is jinxed. If you give him a six run lead or bring him in when the game is already lost, he’s just fine. Put him out there when the game is on the line and it’s like a guaranteed clusterfuck. The man is a box on the bullpen, a pox I say!
Really?
Three spaces after punctuation? Really?
That is all I have to contribute.
- W. Bloomquist homered to deep center
- P. Earth explodes
better 3 than 1,
if you ask me.
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "[my most important sabermetric stats are] runs scored and runs driven in"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 5, 2010 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah
I don’t like the “one space” rule that came up sometime in the late 80s/early 90s. Two spaces seems to be the most logical. Why the one-space? It’s easier for me to skim something, for instances, if there is an easily identifiable difference between a comma and a period.
That said, I always thought it was weird that, if you’re putting two spaces after a period, that you would do the same after a colon.
I'm a one-space guy myself
It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.
I think the one-space tendency came about (like so many flawed puntuation rules) from
newsprint. Newspapers (and magazines, etc.) trying to limit the number of characters to minimize the space taken by any given article.
Zapp Brannigan/Dayton Moore quote of the day: "[my most important sabermetric stats are] runs scored and runs driven in"
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Mar 5, 2010 3:36 PM EST up reply actions
I always thought the two-space rule came about because of typewriters.
Typewriters use one em per keystroke, including periods. If only one space was left after a period at the end of a sentence, there would be about the same space between sentences as there was between many words. By using two spaces after to start a sentence, typewritten text became much easier to read.
With non-proportional fonts the reason that extra space was added in the first place no longer exists. With the period butting right against the space assigned to the last letter of the sentence, followed by a full em space, the eye easily perceives the end of a sentence.
Better from wind up than stretch
May be true of Farnsworth, definitely true of Hochevar. I would contend he has big innings because he can’t pitch out of the stretch.
One of the things he supposedly was working on in the minors was getting quicker to the plate with men on base. Whatever they have done to improve that has failed him miserably at getting outs.
by Tarnished Crown on Mar 5, 2010 12:54 PM EST reply actions
I Believe This
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Mar 5, 2010 6:23 PM EST up reply actions
I can't believe we're debating the merits of Kyle Farnsworth
but then again, we are Royals fans
"This looks like it could be gravy."
-Carl the Groundskeeper, Caddyshack

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