Place to ask (potentially) stupid questions.

There’s a lot of info there. If you have any other questions or would like any clarification or explanation, just ask and someone can probably answer you.

We can all learn from each other here about stats, tools, rules, terminology and more. And I think just about everyone is cool with someone who doesn’t know about something just asking so they can learn. Frankly, we all have a lot to learn.

LOVE IT!

honsetly, there’s no reason to use OPS+ anymore — wRC+ is the same concept part adjusted, except with the proper weights for each events (and customized for each season), and includes SB/CS.

Pitch f/x will tell you for each pitch the exact velocity, degree and direction of movement of that pitch. It also has an algorithm which can identify from this data what type of pitch it was (fastball, curveball, etc.). From this you can develop all kinds of information about what kind of pitch a pitcher throws in a given situation, where he throws it, etc.

1. You are experiencing the early stages of paranoid schizophrenia. You should enjoy it for a little while, but get some meds for it before the musical notes turn into a voice telling you to kill the mailman.

2. Of course she can, but only if she really wants to.

1. RoyalsReview is camping out in your attic and is playing music as someone approaches your house. It was my idea. What would you prefer to hear as someone is approaching? We will think about changing it.

2. Sure but why would she/he? Then if she/he did, she/he could increase their strength to then be able to lift it. It’s a vicious cycle that I would think God would identify and stay out of it. Kinda like the revolving door at SS for the Royals. It’s a vicious cycle.

that was like the only paper I did well on in my philo 101 class

SIERA. And it has tested pretty well so far against FIP, xFIP, and tRA. I wouldn’t say that it is clearly superior to xFIP or tRA, but I think it is up in their level. Well, that’s my preliminary opinion so far. I haven’t had much experience with it yet.

WAR also uses a superior system for positional adjustments (I think Clay has acknowledged these problems as well — I know he fixed his too-low replacement level, not sure about positional adjustments)

Now, you may not agree wit hthe precise WAR positional adjustments, but using a standard one for each position based both on statistical comparison and common sense beats the WARP system, which, like VORP, uses a percentage of hitting based on each position. But these leads to logical weirdness — in the 1950s, for exampe, you’ll get some seasons where the average CF outhits the average LF. Does that mean it was easier to “replace” at CF than an LF in the 1950s? No. We know that pretty much any CF will be better in LF, but not vice-versa, and that’s as true in 1957 as it is today.

Marcel – This is a simple regression model using — I think — just the last three years of a player’s stats. That kind of regression is the basis of pretty much all of the projection systems. But they all add to it, so Marcel is basically inferior to all of them. I think Tom Tango developed it, but recognizes it is a very simple tool, not a great projection system. It is named after Ross’s monkey on “Friends,” because it is the projection system so simple to put together a monkey could do it.

Bill James – No one knows what the hell this thing is. From what I’ve read, Bill James just sold his name to somebody to use on their projection system. I don’t think anyone knows how they come up with their projection. And I don’t think it has a good track record for accuracy.

PECOTA – Some say it relies too much on “player types” and using the development/decline curves of those types of players. Others think that CHONE, ZiPS and others are inferior to PECOTA because they don’t recognize the different career progression curves of different types of players.

Oliver – I think this was new last year. From what I read about what goes into it, it is CHONE-lite, or ZiPS-lite. It’s not bad, but I don’t think it is as good as the top-tier projection systems.

I think in recent years ZiPS and CHONE have the best track records. I think I read that CHONE performed best in 2009.

Marcel — simple weighted regression model, very basic age adjustments, not separate component curves, park or league adjustments, anything. Is no more but a baseline system, and that’s all it is meant to be, a “minimum competency test.” for other system. And yet, even the system that beat it only do so by a bit.

CHONE — at the moment, probably the “industry standard” of public projection system. No comparables stuff, either, as far as I know, just really well-researched component aging curves, MLEs, park-and-league adjustments, etc.

ZIPS — uses comparables, has been as good as CHONE some recent years, althougn not always. Very good, though.

Bill James — lives off the name. Too hitter-optimistic.

PECOTA — used to be the standard, has fallen apart the last couple years. Got roundly beaten by CHONE at least as far back as 2008, maybe 2007, don’t remember — Matt Schwartz ,who now writes for BP (hmmm…) showed that. Failed to beat Marcel in 2009. At least it’s freely accessible and open-source…

CAIRO — underrated system by SG from replacement level Yankee Weblog. Does quite well, beats Marcel, actually I think SG’s overall standing projections “won” last season according to VegasWatch, coudl be wrong

Thoughts on Oliver? — It will be nteresting. Beat Marcel in 2009. Brian is super-smart, and the MLEs use a different method, that, in principle, should be better, but we’ll see

Until somebody smart tells me otherwise, CHONE is the best, with ZiPS, CAIRO, and maybe Oliver right behind. It’s pretty close, though. Tango once put it the best by saying “If any system is the best, it’s CHONE.”

I can’t wait to how DAYTON matches up.

“Guy who gets released by the Braves in March.”