2010 Player Projections - Jason Kendall

by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 5, 2010 8:00 PM EST

It's time for the new veteran to get his turn. How will Jason do this year:

Standard Projections
Season	Type	G	PA	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	IBB	SO	SB	CS	AVG
2010	Bill James	128	446	104	82	19	1	2	37		44	5	3	0.254
2010	CHONE	132	518	115	91	21	1	2	36		53	5	3	0.245
2010	Marcel		522	110	82	22	2	4	42	4	57	6	3	0.239
2010	All Fans (45)	121	473	106	83	19	2	2	40	5	50	5	1	0.245
2010	Other Fans (37)	124	486	108	85	19	2	2	42	6	51	5	1	0.243
2010	Team Fans (8)	104	409	92	69	19	2	2	32	4	43	5	1	0.244

Advanced Projections
Season	Type	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP	wRC	wOBA
2010	Bill James	8.3%	10.8%	0.338	0.320	0.658	0.281	38.4	0.288
2010	CHONE	6.9%	11.3%	0.315	0.306	0.621	0.272	42.9	0.284
2010	Marcel	8.0%	12.4%	0.315	0.321	0.636	0.263	44.2	0.286
2010	All Fans (45)	8.5%	11.5%	0.325	0.312	0.638	0.271	42.5	0.290
2010	Other Fans (37)	8.6%	11.5%	0.325	0.310	0.634	0.267	42.9	0.288
2010	Team Fans (8)	7.8%	11.4%	0.319	0.320	0.639	0.272	36.4	0.289

Value Projections
Season	Type	Batting	Fielding	Replacement	Positional	RAR	WAR	Dollars
2010	All Fans (45)	-15.7	-0.4	15.8	9.3	9.1	0.9	$4.10
2010	Other Fans (37)	-16.9	-0.2	16.2	9.6	8.8	0.9	$3.90
2010	Team Fans (8)	-13.9	-1.3	13.6	8	6.4	0.6	$2.90

Poll

How will Jason Kendall do compared to his CHONE projection of: 132 games, 518 PA, 2 HR, 0.245/0.315/0.306, 0.284 wOBA, 0.9 WAR

Better

92 votes

Same

146 votes

Worse

123 votes

361 votes | Poll has closed

Tweet Comment 23 comments | 0 recs |

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Comments

Gotta love when a player's OBP is to be higher than their SLG

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 5, 2010 8:13 PM EST reply actions

It worked for Richie Ashburn

For his career he was .308/.396/.382 for his career, and from 1954-1962, did it every season (.305/.410/.376).

58 career WAR (Rally shows he’s a lefit HOFer), and it’s not all his (excellent) defense, several ~6 WAR seasons 1954-

You, Mr. Kendall, are no Richie Ashburn

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Mar 5, 2010 8:27 PM EST up reply actions

Ashburn Was Well

Respected, a perhaps too rare incidence of true talent showing through in non-tradetional ways.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Mar 6, 2010 10:27 PM EST up reply actions

.306 SLG

I’m pretty certain you can get more power from letting balls bounce off a wet cardboard cutout stood on the plate.

by kcbottom9th on Mar 5, 2010 8:23 PM EST reply actions

I voted better

because I’m hoping he gets injured which in the Royals case would be the best scenario and a 36 yo catchers body eventually has to breakdown.

I don't know how to put this but I'm kind of a big deal.

by kcscoliny on Mar 5, 2010 8:35 PM EST reply actions

i ll say it again

dude has made $77 million playing baseball

incredible

by Freneau on Mar 5, 2010 9:32 PM EST reply actions

He was really good for about 10 years

most of 1997-2006 he was god, with 5-6 legitimatelly great years

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Mar 5, 2010 9:40 PM EST up reply actions

"good" not "god"

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Mar 5, 2010 9:40 PM EST up reply actions

Not sure why this is a shock.

A guy that was good a position that isn’t overflowing with talent makes a lot of money. Unfortunately, he was good in 2003.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by Warden11 on Mar 6, 2010 1:46 AM EST up reply actions

a question

how is he above replacement value? Because he’s a catcher or because he’s supposed to be a decent defender? Those don’t look like plus numbers. Thanks

Obviously, you are not a golfer.

by Kyled85 on Mar 5, 2010 10:07 PM EST reply actions

It's because he is catcher

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Mar 5, 2010 10:10 PM EST up reply actions

right

but are replacement level players not separated by position?

Obviously, you are not a golfer.

by Kyled85 on Mar 6, 2010 12:03 AM EST up reply actions

replacement level by definition, is usually around 22.5 runs below average per 700 PA. Let’s say Kendall is around -25 runs/700 PA (assume aveage defense for simplicity)., but we also give him a +12.5/700 adjustment for playing catcher. Per 700 PA, then, he’d be 10 runs above replacement level.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Mar 6, 2010 1:33 AM EST up reply actions

ok

but wouldn’t the theoretical replacement level player also get the +12.5/700 for being a catcher, if indeed he were to replace Kendall? I understand why it’s meant to be broadbased for any position, I’d just like to be able to single it out to catcher in this instance. Is that possible Matt?

Obviously, you are not a golfer.

by Kyled85 on Mar 6, 2010 12:46 PM EST up reply actions

I'm a bit confused as to whether we're on the same page

but, yeah, a replacement level player is a guy who is ~20 runs below average after positiion adjustment, fielding, and offense.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Mar 6, 2010 1:24 PM EST up reply actions

ok

Thanks. I’m squared away now.

Obviously, you are not a golfer.

by Kyled85 on Mar 6, 2010 5:42 PM EST up reply actions

Kendall Projections

Assuming 500 healthy PA (although hopefully Pena hits too well to not play back there some)
445 AB
107 H (.240)
55 BB (.324 OBP)
60 K
50 R
20 2B
1 3B
2 HR (.303 SLG)
40 RBI
6 SB: 2 CS

by stlfan on Mar 6, 2010 12:30 AM EST reply actions

Before I read any comments, I had to vote worse

because of the .9 WAR.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by Warden11 on Mar 6, 2010 1:45 AM EST reply actions

I went better

Because I think he’ll hit 3 homers!

Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.

by 306008 on Mar 6, 2010 12:16 PM EST reply actions

seeing him do worse should be fun

by Freneau on Mar 6, 2010 1:40 PM EST reply actions

doing better will surely cause suffering

by Salty on Mar 7, 2010 9:59 AM EST up reply actions

Seeing Him Bat

Second will make it that much better.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Mar 7, 2010 2:41 PM EST up reply actions

This guy is a terrible player now

Any forecast for him would be grim. I’m hoping he breaks a 600 OPS. Or a bone in his finger so he can’t play. Batting him second would be unbelievably stupid, since as we know, the second batter gets the second most PAs.

The only sensible lineup for KC starts with DeJesus, Callaspo, and Butler. These guys are good enough to play on real professional teams.

It's pronounced Poo-ZHOLS in Catalan.

by Juancho on Mar 7, 2010 5:31 PM EST reply actions