Baseball Prospectus Ranks Royal Farm System 10th Best in Baseball, 3rd Best in AL Central
by Freneau on Mar 9, 2010 1:15 PM EST
in Kansas City Royals Minor Leagues
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PrintGood news/bad news.
The full organizational rankings from Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus are out today, and our Royals check in at number 10. When we talked about the state of the system awhile back, some speculated that the Royals might snag a high rating from BP/Goldstein, who was pretty high on the system in his early evaluations.
That didn't quite happen. However, 10th isn't a horrible ranking either.
10. Kansas City Royals
Last Year’s Ranking: 16
Why They Are Here: Because they know how to draft, at least after the first round. Some might even classify them as trailblazers when it comes to small-market teams spending big money in the later rounds, as it's still the best bargain in baseball. The Royals have tons of impressive young pitchers, most of them with true starter profiles.
Where They Will Be Next Year: It should be up, and maybe significantly so. They pick fourth overall, will likely lose nobody from their current list, and there are still plenty of scouts who think disappointing elite-level picks Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer have plenty of upside.
For what its worth, the rest of the AL Central shakes out like this:
- Cleveland - 3rd overall
- Minnesota - 6th overall
- Royals - 10th overall
- Tigers - 14th overall
- White Sox - 27th overall
Bit of a bummer seeing the Royals still behind Minnesota and still well behind Cleveland. And being that close to the Tigers isn't super awesome either.
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In 5 more years,
we should be right in the thick of things.
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"will likely lose nobody from their current list"
This reasoning is one of the problems with the rankings lists — the Royals overall system does not really get any better, just other teams have more guys who no longer meet the arbitrary definition of “prospect” even though they are still with their teams. A list of teams with overall talent with less than 3 years of MLB service time would be more meaningful.
The 4th overall pick and improvement from Moustakas or Hosmer, however, should legitimately improve the system (although a move from 3B to OF would likely be a big hit to Moustakas’s value going forward).
I disagree.
The prospects still have to show something during the year. Otherwise, the ranking will go down. As can be seen with Moose and Hosmer, the analysts are happy to drop people down if they falter (though they hesitate to remove them completely). The system should be better next year because the same prospects from the previous year should be there and be better than they were before.
But that is not what Goldstein is talking about
He is talking about changes in the ranking based on the arbitrary factor of whether a player loses his “prospect” eligibility (which means the 130 AB/50 IP threshhold that BA adopted years ago). Cleveland’s system as a whole is not any worse if Carlos Santana gets 135 ABs this year instead of 125, even though Cleveland’s prospect ranking would go down because Santana would lose his eligibility as a “prospect” for Goldstein’s list. That has nothing to do with how the players perform duing the year.
And whether the player shows something applies equally to those who lose their prospect eligibility and those who keep it.
eh
You have to set the cut-off somewhere. Rankings based on players who don’t have significant if any MLB experience means something different than rankings based on players who have up to 3 years of MLB experience. It’s pretty easy for a fan to learn about players who are already in the Majors by, you know, turning on the TV or checking out their stats, so I’ll take the ranking systems that exclude players who no longer have rookie eligibility.
I get what you are saying, but this is the system ranking, not the individual ranking
If the reason you look at prospect lists is to get an idea about a tearm’s future, looking beyond the under 130 AB/50 IP club is significantly more meaningful. The rookie threshhold is pretty easy to make, and a lot of guys do not immediately stick upon reaching 130 ABs or 50 IP, so you end up with a lot of the best players in the minors no longer getting coverage as prospects. If you are looking big picture, the view gets skewed quickly.
Take the Orioles for an example. Their list of “prospects” is not particularly impressive, but if you add Weiters, Jones, Tillman, Pie, and Reimold to the picture, you have one the better collections of young talent in baseball and a better idea of how that team will do in the coming years.
It would be nice if there was some sort of "ML ready" rankings
AA + AAA + 0-2 players.
Unless I'm wrong...
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Don't worry about Moustakas
I read that he really slimmed down in the offseason, he’s the best something of his something
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by Matt Klaassen on Mar 9, 2010 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
. . . in the history of something other
I look forward to the fun next winter when after Moustakas has a pretty good season and switches to RF, BA still drops him three slots on its Top 100 list.
But they also really put stock into being close the majors
Really, that is the thing hurting the Royals. We have tons of good prospects, but they are still young (especially with the international players). So, they hedge the bets on some busts.
We could have the same farm system, and if the top guys are putting up numbers in AAA, then we will probably pass Minnesota. I would take our entire farm over theirs right now from the upside perspective. We have A LOT that project as ML average talent. Not so many “stars,” but we could put an entire baseball team together of ML projectable average talent (or better) in our minors system.
by bas on Mar 9, 2010 6:39 PM EST up reply actions
Again, that's not what Goldstein or I was talking about
Top guys succeeding at AAA is a reason for legitimate improvement of the system — the fact that none of the top prospects will lose their eligibility as a “prospect” does not in anyway improve the system, even if it improves the ranking.
In any event, it is highly unlikely that anyone from his Top 10 will make AAA this year (outside of maybe Crow).
hard to read the word "trailblazer"
in regards to something positive the royals are doing
brings a tear to my eye
The Royals have done a good job with later round picks
like Myers, Melville, Hayenga, etc. With the lack of a real slotting system, KC is playing the draft like they should – over pay for talent like a Crawford Simmons. What do they have to lose? Dropping $150-500K on a potential prospect isn’t big money for an MLB team. I’d rather have KC spend it on young talents who could develop than waste it in other pursuits.
The Royals lack of upper minor league talent is still the effect of the weak system in the mid 2000s and also going for top HS picks with Moustakas and Hosmer. It is going to take longer with a kid is 18 years old than a 22 year old. Crow is likely to begin in AA in his first full year. Moustakas is getting to AA after several years in the system.
this is good to see...
however this is the MINIMUM level of acceptability with regards to rankings, from my perspective. with all of DM’s other mistakes, this is the area where he really has to shine if we’re going to become a contender…i would expect a top 5 ranking at this time next year. that would mean that many of our prospects have really taken a step forward, and we bag some real talent in this year’s draft. if we’re any lower than that, i think DM has to be given a failing grade.
"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Mar 9, 2010 11:02 PM EST reply actions
With as high as the Royals draft picks have been you could take an internet mock draft
and throw a dart at the Best Players Available and probably come away with similar drafts to DM. The part that is actually good is the later round guys that have fallen that we aren’t shying away from because of money concerns. It’s nice to see, and I hope we have another crop of them this year. But you are right, he’s sort of just doing the minimum right now, he needs to hit a pick out of the park, and who knows maybe he already has, they just need a little more time to develop.
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