Looking Wistfully At Seattle And Jack Zduriencik
by Freneau on Apr 26, 2010 2:37 PM EDT
in Kansas City Royals News
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PrintI'll run a traditionally nonsensical Battle of Grass Creek post at some point during this series. It's always special when these two teams get together, as we all know. Really quickly however, I just wanted to get something serious out there:
I'm jealous of what Seattle has and what we missed out on.
When Seattle hired Jack Zduriencik in October 2008, he arguably took over a worse situation than what Dayton Moore inherited. At the very least, they were comparably horrible. No one credible said, "Bavasi left the organization in good hands." Perhaps the Royals that Dayton inherited had greater organizational deficiencies, but we also need to acknowledge that, here in 2010, many of the team's best players are still Baird holdovers.
Zduriencik wasn't a sexy hire, and he wasn't really embraced by the blogosphere/stat-leaning crowd. Contrast that with Dayton Moore, who was a sexy hire in 2006, and who was embraced by just about anyone. I don't mean this arrogantly, but seriously, I think I was the most negative person out there in the first year or so. Even amongst the statheads, the consensus was generally, "well, he's not going to do it our way, but you have to respect the old-school bonafides he has." Rany wrote the Royals chapter in BP 2007 and in general it was incredibly positive regarding the new administration.
Dayton Moore was seen as the best traditional GM candidate out there, dripping with legitimacy coming from the (over-rated, but whatever) Atlanta system. Although Moore threw some people off in some interviews with OBP talk and the rest, but he sent a clear message with the hiring of Trey Hillman, who had found success in the more Angels-than-the-Angels small-ball heaven of Japan.
Unfortunately, Moore has turned out to be a bad old-school GM. He's revealed himself to be stubborn, close-minded, bad with budgets, and many other things. I find it personally annoying that he's anti-stats, but if he was good/great at what he was supposed to be, I could handle it.
Now look at Zduriencik. He has a traditional scouting/player development background, yet he's realized that he can augment scouting with other information. Contrast that to the Royals, who just keeping going further and further away from anything that wasn't around in 1980. Jack Z. setup an entire analytics department, Moore hired a stat guy who wasn't even a stat guy at all, the mysterious Jin Wong. Seattle has shown that you don't have to hire a 32 year old to be forward looking. If anything, the Jack Z experience is ideal: you probably still don't want a pure stats guy as the face of your franchise in the current media environment. Zduriencik is going to be acceptable to the former players on MLB Network and Baseball Tonight.
And the tragedy of it is, where we are now, the advanced stats are on defense, which fits right in with a traditional, 1960s-generation-based, love of low-scoring games, and all the rest. But Dayton just can't adjust, adapt, or change.
Now, who knows what the future holds in Seattle, and if Zduriencik's scouting program doesn't also contribute, they won't win. Nevertheless, they're way ahead of us, who appear to have bad to mediocre scouting and nothing augmenting it.
Here's what saddens me: the Royals did what everyone told them to do, they hired what everyone thought was the best guy available and they promised to open up their wallet up and down the organization, and it did not work out. Oh well, Gil Meche was a great signing for like the first two and a half years of his contract.
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Have to admit I've pulled back on the Jack Z. love a fair bit
I still think he’s done some great things, but I’ll admit to being overly enthusiastic for a guy early on, and some of the decisionmaking this spring has been…. um… unexpected.
But, yeah, having said that: envy
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
yes, its possible he's been overhyped
but I love his future going forward: he’s established a track record in scouting /pd (way more than Moore had, if you consider how the late ‘00 Brewers were build and did versus the late ’00 Braves) but he’s also showing that he’s going other tools to work with
if he wants to burn the last 3 spots on the roster with chemistry bringing garbage… so be it
Griffey/Sweeney/Garko decision is the obvious one
What are the other ones? It is hard to believe anyone is running Griffey and Sweeney out at DH, but that is the easiest position to fix, as they can always flip a live arm for Luke Scott or whomever. Outside of that and maybe catcher, it gets hard to find a spot where they are not going to get at least roughly league average production for that position (factoring in defense).
It's compounded into a lot of weird decisions
If Bradley is the LF, then Griffey/Sweeney/Garko is a mess. IT’s two wasted roster spots, they cut a guy whose defense apparently won’t play at DH, but who is at worst one win better than Griffey + Sweeney with the bat… You can easily sign a decent DH for the Griffey/Sweeney situation.
If Bradley is the DH, then Griffey/Sweeney are even more of a mess and a waste, and in any case, they sent down Langerhans again in favor of Byrnes, which isn’t the end of the world (personally, i think Langerhans is far better, but whatever)….
Now, that’s the questionable one, but the thing is, they’ve spent a bunch of prospects (of varying quality) trying to WIN NOW. They have Bradley for two years. They have Cliff Lee through this year. They emptied a lot of their prospects for 1.5 WAR stopgaps like Jack Wilson (and there was no back up plan for his inevitable injury), acquiring Lee, and spending on Figgins, who isn’t going to get any better. So why are the screwing around with the DH/LF situation? We keep talking about how it’s “easy to fill,” and yet they’ve got TWO sub-replacement scrubs filling the “easy spot to fill.” They could have Garko for nothing, Jack Cust could have been had for less than Griffey is making (no, he’s not great, but again, he’s better than Griffey/Sweeney), heck, Ryan Langerhans at DH might hit as well or better than Griffey…
Oh. and why is Rob Johnson in the major leagues? If they don’t think Moore is ready to be the main guy could have signed Gregg Zaun for…. wait for it… less than they gave Griffey.
All the moves they’ve made have merely made them competitive in the AL West. Frankly, they’re going to need an extra dose of luck to win it. Sure, it’s just a couple move, but if they’re so obvious and easy, why are they just messing around, when they’ve gone all in?
Look, I think they’ve done a good job, but as I said before the season, while I like their moves, they weren’t as good as last season’s record, I’m still not sure they are after their improvements… Oakland can bring up Chris Carter, MIchael Taylor, and Jack Cust (once they come to their senses). Who can Seattle bring up? Matt Tuiasaklsdfk;lasjedfpo?
If you’re going to go all in, go all in. Don’t screw around with a sub-replacement platoon DH and Rob Johnson. Jack Z.’s done a good job, but those are Dayton Moore-esque moves, quite frankly (Gload/Sweeney/LaRue).
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Apr 26, 2010 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, but it is still an easy fix
Don’t get me wrong. The aging veteran platoon DH was a horrible idea — I guess they were wishcasting for a Frank Thomas-like last hurrah. But that seems to be the only major blunder, and there is still plenty of time to fix the situation. It is only 20 games into the year, and they should be smart enough to recognize a problem. If this was June 30, and no move had been made, it would be a different story.
In the short term, they can dump (or DL) Sweeney, call up Langerhans to platoon in LF with Byrnes, play Bradley mostly at DH, and relegate Griffey to pinch-hitting for the catcher or Wilson late in games. In the next few weeks, the teams going nowhere will start making players available, and Seattle would have some flexibility in picking up a corner OF or a 1B/DH-type or maybe even a catcher like Ryan Doumit (who can play spot duty at 1B or OF). Unless they try to trade for a star (which they don’t have to), a trade will not cost anyone they would miss. Seattle did not exactly empty its farm system with the Lee or Wilson/Snell deals — other than Aumont (who might end up a reliever) and Clement (who will not end up a catcher), can you name any of the other players involved (without looking them up)? If Griffey does not start hitting, he hits the DL with general soreness and gets activated when rosters expand in September.
That might still not be enough to win the west, but should keep them in contention.
I agree that it's not a huge deal
I just don’t get the skimping on the DH/catcher issues when they are trying to contend. No, I don’t know much about the prospects they gave up other than Clement and Aumont (and although they got Wilson back, Clement’s another guy they could use at DH right now), other than Dave Cameron thought they gave up a bit much for Wilson/Snell.
There’s no reasonable reason for a team doing all these moves to even waste time with one of Griffey/Sweeney, let alone both. That’s all.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Apr 27, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
"but he sent a clear message with the hiring of Trey Hillman, who had found success in the more Angels-than-the-Angels small-ball heaven of Japan."
Yea, but I remember in doing background on managerial candidates, Hillman talked about playing for the big inning and denounced small-ball, but said when he went to Japan, he had to change his philosophy because of the personnel he had.
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/sb20090531j2.html
One big bone of contention was, not surprisingly, the sacrifice bunt, which the Nippon Ham cognoscenti wanted him to use every time a runner reached first with none or one out to gain the psychological advantage of an early, though minuscule lead — all important in Japan. Hillman, for his part, thought the sacrifice bunt was a pointless exercise, a waste of an out. ’Twas far, far better, in his view, to play for the hit, the walk, the home run and the big inning.
News photo
Lessons learned: Trey Hillman’s willingness to adjust his baseball philosophy helped him find success in Japan. He is now in his second season as manager of the Kansas City Royals. AP PHOTO
“I got the psychology part,” said Hillman, "So I did what I could to at least try and get a run in the first inning, even though, at that time, we were too pitching poor to play for one run. But to me it was still a crutch.
I don’t think his problem is that he likes small ball, his problem is that he thinks bad teams need to employ small ball, when bad teams are probably the ones that should employ small ball the least.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I also wonder
How much influence Dayton has on his managerial strategy.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I think managers are mostly unimportant
but they do show us what an org values
and with trey, I think it was that he was young, had the japan thing, and maybe a personal connection between him and moore
It might be faux pas to bring this up, but
I really think Trey’s, um, lets call it “faith” probably had something to do with the hire. I’ve actually read interviews where Moore says it was an area in which they found common ground during the interview process. Truly terrifying to think of an interview between a GM and potential manager going there.
"We're on a mission from God"
There’s a photoshop opportunity.
<img src=""We’re on a mission from God""/>
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I'm glad someone else mentioned it
but yea, I think that had to have played a role
Hillman was obviously someone Moore wanted, as he kinda went out of his way to bring him here
WWTLD?
(What would Tony LaRussa Do?)
Perhaps Hillman isn’t as stupid as we think – but the fact that he admits that he changed his strategy just to get “buy in” from the Japanese culturists, to me, is an indication that I don’t want him managing my team! I want a guy with the courage of his convictions, not some guy willing to kiss ass to keep management happy.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
its a judgement call
there are some attractive qualities to the hillman story: he’s an underdog, he had to go to Japan to get a shot, he’s relatively adaptable
I don’t get too hung up on managers anymore, Hillman annoys me at times, but I think anyone would. When I think about, say, the Pirates, its obvious manager is like 20th on their list of problems.
totally agree
getting worked up about a manager on a team of bad players is such a time waster
by I need more Esteban on Apr 26, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
I disagree. See his leverage quote from last week.
Perhaps Hillman isn’t as stupid as we think
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
I think we are really jumping the gun in comparing the two
Jack Z’s done a lot of things right, but he’s had some head scratchers.
4 yrs $36 mm for Chone Figgins was questionable at best. Platooning Griffey and Sweeney at DH makes as little sense as trotting out Betancourt at SS every day
Also, how fair is it to judge Moore considering that his draft exploits have not had sufficient time to bear fruit? If we throw out 2006 (questionable), then 2007 should only begin to pan out beginning next year.
Not trying to defend Moore here, just playing devil’s advocate.
Waiting for April.
I hear what you're saying
Although 2007 isn’t look all that great right now. Moose has power, but also major flaws. The only other decent prospect is David Lough, who looks like a tweener. Greg Holland might make a nice pen arm. And if Danny Duffy returns, he could join this list.
2008 looks a lot better, but of course, those players are further away.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I thought the figgins deal was too rich myself
then I realized he actually made himself a good offensive player
from 07-09 he’s hit .301/.386/.382 with good defense and like an ability to play a bazillion positions
True, but Figgins was given this deal when was 32 years old
He should be entering his decline phase now, and by the time that his contract runs up the chances of him being thoroughly washed up are higher than the chances that he is still a productive player. One element of his game – speed – is sure to decline over the next few years.
It’s also incorrect to assume that Figgins value comes from playing a ton of positions. He hasn’t been a versatile player on the diamond since 2006, really. In 2008-2009 he started and finished games at 3B pretty much exclusively (259 games out of 274 played, for 94.5%). And he’s only logged 12 games in the outfield from 2007-present.
And the Mariners show no sign of playing him anywhere other than 2B. He’s started and finished every game there so far.
You could resonably argue that Figgins is nothing more than a much older Alberto Callaspo at this point – undersized, high BA and OBP player with the ability to play 2B and 3B. Figgins may have more speed and better defense at this point, but Callaspo probably has a better bat since he can actually hit for power and strikes out less. Is that worth paying a guaranteed $36 million to over the next four years? I vote no.
Waiting for April.
Alberto Callaspo, career wins above replacement:
3.5
Chone Figgins, 2009 Wins Above replacement: 6.1
He won’t do that again, but Figgins also put up a higher wOBA in 2009 than Callaspo. Callaspo’s the better hitter, but Figgins does everything else better. Figgins is much older, of course, but Callaspo isn’t exactly the kind of player that’s going to age well. Let’s also not go nuts about Callaspo’s power — he might his more than 15 home runs some year, but, um…
Figgins versatility isn’t a big deal, 2B/3B transitions aren’t usually that difficult, and Figgins was tremendous at 3B, and has been pretty good going back to 2B so far.
The deal for Figgins is an average deal, given how the market worked out, but the Mariners filled a hole they needed to fill.
I won’t spend more time on this, since I know you’re arguing for the sake of discussion: obviously, Jack Z. isn’t perfect, but Dayton Moore has proven over and over again that he’s simply not cut out to be a GM, which is why when he eventually loses this job, he’ll never have another shot again.
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by Matt Klaassen on Apr 26, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Figgins signed early
and Jack Z. got him right at where the market eventually settled.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Apr 26, 2010 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm a Jack Z fan - but gotta say that time will tell
Judging just by articles I’ve read about him, I like him because he believes that the more input you have on a decision, the more likely you are to get it right. In his position, this means he values the opinions of his scouts and traditional “baseball men”, but also values the input from his analytical department.
Time will tell if those articles were merely lip service – but I am still waiting to hear something similar to this from Moore. I’ve got a feeling he’s gonna be fired before any of us hear anything of the kind.
Small ball - that was a good plan in 1910, not 2010. Thanks, Dayton.
its not what you say, its what you do
and their moves have clearly reflected that
the thing I like is how their roster makes sense and reflects a plan, even the stupid parts (Griffey, Sweeney) still reflect a coherent plan
unlike with the royals, where for years we’ve had no clue what they’re trying to do
agree completely with you, Will
Moore has been very good at creating “talking points”, but that’s all they have been – B.S. talking points with no real action to back them up
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
Now is when his job starts getting a little harder.
Seattle was a mess in some ways and he dealt with them pretty good. Now the gains are going to be much less and hard to get. I see him wanting to make a move just for sake of doing something, which might hurt them.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
yea
look back at Moore’s first two years
its easy to be the new guy, its easy to shed bad players, and in some ways, those first two years of acquisitions are easy, as you have your stored up information and ideas that you are ready to act on now that you can. it’s like if I got hired to, say, run a restaraunt. for like a month, I’d probably be great at it… then when I ran out of my 5 ideas and the situation kept changing around me, I’d be in trouble
the other thing is, its 10X (ok, not based on anything specific, but just roll with it) easier to get from 60 to 80 wins than it is to get from 80 to 90
"easier to go from 60 to 80 wins than..."
In theory only, Will.
Sincerely,
Dayton
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
and P.S.
I mean “in theory” because we will never get to find out.
/Still Dayton
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Apr 26, 2010 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I'll generally agree with this statement
its 10X (ok, not based on anything specific, but just roll with it) easier to get from 60 to 80 wins
And yet, four years into the Dayton Moore Regime, 80 wins still feels SO far away. If it takes 5-6 years (at least) for him to get to the first step, then the second step must be at least 20 years off.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 26, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
There IS an 8 in there, I guess
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Apr 26, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
We'dve Won 100
If not for injuries
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Apr 26, 2010 5:56 PM EDT up reply actions
How is Jack Z so far at developing their stock of minor league talent?
Do ratings for their system look good? Because to be successful in KC you need the proper tools for ML decision making but also an assembly line of young talent a la Minnesota. (Not that we’re sure we have either of those right now with GMDM)
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Apr 26, 2010 6:14 PM EDT reply actions
He's only had one draft with Seattle
but his tenure with Milwaukee produced an impressive assembly line of young talent (Fielder, Braun, Weeks, Hardy, Gallardo, etc.). He was the first non-GM to win Baseball America’s Executive of the Year Award based on what he did in Milwaukee.
HOpefully for Seattle he can do it again
since he traded most everyone for 2010’s potential run to 84 wins
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Apr 26, 2010 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Here's a funny thought:
If GMDM were fired tomorrow, would another organization hire him as GM?
.
.
.
Sad, isn’t it?
For what it’s worth, I think a fair few of us should get together and propose to offer our services to the Royals.
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I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
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by Matt Klaassen on Apr 27, 2010 7:23 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I do think he would be hired as Director of Scouting or minor league operations pretty quickly
I think he’s still well regarded in that field.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
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