Quick Piece on Crow over at FanGraphs

Hulet seems like he just casually "checked in" on Crow by going back and looking at his stats so far. I'll be the first one to say they aren't pretty, but hardly a reason to panic. Besides that, it's still way too early. One thing of note though, he's got a GB rate of 70%. He's also given up 6 HRs off of a 16% HR/BIA so that seems a little unlucky.

What do you guys feel about his start so far?

about 2 years ago AtTheWall 17 comments 1 recs |

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I feel a lot like I did with Hochevar

Part of me says, oh he’ll figure it out with more time. The stuff is there, the results will follow.

The other part of me says, we just made a mistake drafting another college pitcher out of the Indy League. I can’t wait for him to be promoted mid-season, throw a shutout that gets us overly excited, and sandwich that in between 5 or 6 awful outings resuling in a 6.00 ERA.

Waiting for April.

by DC Royal on May 13, 2010 11:45 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Going back before the draft

one area of concern with Crow was his changeup — he had the good sinking fastball/slider combo, but the reports noted that his changeup needed work (and was one of the reasons some questioned whether he would ultimately end up as a reliever). The changeup is key because it gives him a pitch to throw opposite-handed hitters. His chances of success as a starter drop significantly if left-handed hitters knock him around. This, of course, has been one of Hochevar’s main problems.

Hopefully, the organization is making Crow throw lots of changeups in an effort to develop it. If so, that scenario may help explain his performance so far. Does anyone know if the organization is doing something like this?

by Gopherballs on May 13, 2010 12:30 PM EDT reply actions

good point. i haven't heard anything about that

just looking at minor league splits, you can see that he’s rocked a 77% GB rate against 72 lefty batters. Of course we’re looking at an even smaller sample size, but his platoon split isn’t that drastic so far.

by AtTheWall on May 13, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions

Crow is actually running a reverse platoon split

4.92 FIP v. LHB, 5.52 FIP v. RHB. This would be a very good thing if both splits were not so poor.

by Gopherballs on May 13, 2010 1:38 PM EDT up reply actions

why is the changeup necessary for opposite hitting batters?

Not disputing your reasoning, just looking for clarification. I’ve heard this before and always assumed it to be true, but I’ve never really heard the explanation why a RHP needs a good changeup to get LH batters out, or vice versa….just always seemed like it was one of the accepted universal truths.

Follow me on twitter.com/MizzouCus

by MizzouCus on May 13, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions

It generally tails to the pitcher's arm-side

and away from opposite-handed hitters. So it leaves an outside pitch that can work well, whereas a slider/curve will come inside (unless it’s thrown backdoor, which is not a very popular pitch for some reason). The changeup can be useful against same-handed hitters, but if the pitcher misses, it’s going to be an inside, slow pitch that may also get left up in the zone.

by SagehenMacGyver47 on May 13, 2010 1:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Yes

Pitches that move away from a batter are more difficult to hit with solid contact. Changeups tend to move away from opposite-handed batters, much like sliders do against same-handed hitters. That is why (quality) changeups are generally effective against opposite-handed hitters, and (quality) sliders are effective against same-handed hitters. Changeups thrown to same-handed hitters (and sliders thrown to opposite-handed hitters) generally move toward the batter and effectively “speed up” the batter’s swing, making them ineffective.

Curveballs that tend more toward 12-6 than a slurve can also be effective against opposite-handed hitters because the pitch moves minimally toward opposite-handed batter. Some pitchers also can use a good splitter or cut fastball as a second pitch against opposite-handed hitters.

Here is a decent article from the Hardball Times on changeups by Josh Kalk, one of the leaders in analyzing pitch f/x data. His whole series on the anatomy of different pitches is a good read.

by Gopherballs on May 13, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions

that's interesting about the 12-6 curve, I hadn't thought of it like that before

I also wonder if it’s easier for same-handed hitters to pick up the change out of the pitcher’s hand/arm movement, but that’s just an idea—I don’t have any basis for that. I think the changeup could be used against same-handed hitters more as a pitch that starts outside and drifts back, especially if the pitcher’s ahead in the count.

by SagehenMacGyver47 on May 13, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Very true

but it’s also a pitch that if it doesn’t get far enough out ends up over the heart of the plate and is 80 mph. Bad combination.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by Warden11 on May 13, 2010 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions

It's going to take time to work him into pitching shape

The guy was in the Indy Leagues last year and has had some time off, so this will be an adjustment period for him. I was impressed with his starts in ST, but I would say that there are some adjustments in his motion or something that the team is working on, leading him to take more time to really flesh out his overall ability.

Like Gopher said, it could be the changeup and the ST method of throwing more changeups regardless of the outcome just to try to work out the kinks so that he’ll be completely ready when he hits the bigs.

by MinnesotaRoyal on May 13, 2010 12:34 PM EDT reply actions

1. You're right it is too early

2. The Queefs can screw up anyone

3. The Queefs can screw up any draft pick

The only measure of true success in the NFL is the Vince Lombardi trophy. Anything less is a rationalization.

by sm7600 on May 13, 2010 12:38 PM EDT reply actions

Keep it up

I'm sure the nickname will catch on eventually

She said "are you stupid or just apathetic?"
I said "I don't know and I don't care"

by Royal Kingdom on May 13, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

we really can't evaluate Crow until AT LEAST 2016

I hate this critical spirit I keep seeing

by Freneau on May 13, 2010 12:45 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Most Royals fans expected him to get to KC too soon

Even “advanced” college prospects can take some time to make it to the majors. Have patience. Will he pan out? You never know with any prospect. Certainly the fact that he hasn’t dominated in 1 1/2 months of pro ball doesn’t tell us much, except that he certainly isn’t ready for the majors yet.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on May 13, 2010 1:15 PM EDT reply actions