History is Written by the Conqueror: Another Look at Ned Yost

Ned Yost was fired as manager of the Milwaukee Brewers on September 15, 2008.  His firing was the result of the Brewers sliding into a tailspin, falling eight games behind the Cubs; the criticisms leveled upon him were that he was misusing the bullpen, mishandling the lineup, mishandling the bench, and generally losing the team.

But there's another story to be told here, and it's one we should take into account.

It should be noted that when Ned Yost was fired, the Brewers were sixteen games over .500.  They'd won 83 games with 12 to play; heck, the Royals have only won 83 games in an entire season twice since 1989.  The division race had already been lost; the concern of Brewers management at that point was staving off the Phillies or Mets for the Wild Card (which was a valid concern).  Even more to the point, the 83 wins Milwaukee had amassed by the date of Yost's firing equalled their win total from 2007... indeed, Ned Yost was fired in the middle of his most successful year as the manager of the Brewers.  In terms of winning percentage, the Brewers' record on the day Yost was fired was their best record since 1982.  You know, the last time they'd ever won anything.

But the story was that the Brewers had collapsed down the stretch to give away the division.  That wasn't really true, though.  Yes, they'd dropped three games in the standings to the Cubs over the previous two weeks in the midst of a horrible 4-15 skid.  That's not good, especially not in the thick of September, but even great teams will have stretches that bad on occasion.  It just happened to occur at a time when ESPN was paying attention to every game they played.

The perception some people have that they'd pissed away a commanding position, though, is false.  The Cubs had a seven-game lead on the Brewers back at the beginning of June.  Milwaukee had chipped away heroically at that lead to pull into a tie on July 26... but they never did actually take sole possession of first place.  Have you heard anyone talking about how Yost got his team to sack up and catch Chicago in June and July?  No, I haven't either, at least not since July of 2008.

The Brewers immediately had a short losing streak, giving up a handful of games in the standings by the end of the month.  Both teams played out of their minds in August.  By the end of the month, despite the Brewers going 20-7 for the month, they were still four and a half back because Chicago had gone 20-8.  At the end of the line for Yost, the reality was that Milwaukee had gained three games on Chicago over the course of three and a half months.

Also forgotten is that the one reason Milwaukee was in a panic was that CC Sabathia had gone two weeks without recording a victory.  (Sound familiar?)  But the Brewers had actually WON both of Sabathia's September starts before Yost was fired.  In the first of those two starts, on September 5, Yost probably erred in leaving the game to Eric Gagne, who blew the save before the rest of the bullpen shut down the Padres until the Brewers could score again.  On September 10, it was the Brewers bullpen who bailed Sabathia out, as he was in line for the loss.

And then Dale Sveum, given seventeen opportunities to manage the Brewers after September 15, led them to a record of 8-9, including the playoff loss to Philadelphia (and two Sabathia losses).  There's potentially an argument that Yost's player usage had left Sveum with a bunch of tired arms and demoralized troops, but let's be honest here: Yost got fired for winning 53% of his games, and got replaced by a guy who lost 53% of his games.

Also lost in the story: Yost had been in Milwaukee for almost seven years.  When he took over, the Brewers were... bad.  Granted, the front office deserves credit for player acquisition during this span, but even now Yost is still credited with developing those young players.  Now, let's look at the situation we now find Ned Yost stepping into: taking over a bad team, with talent in the pipeline.

We can't point at the Bill Hall fiasco and scream about it; I only need to offer two words in response, and those two words are "Mark" and "Teahen".  Besides, it's not like Bill Hall is a future Hall of Famer.  In fact, the Brewers weren't an exceptionally great team in terms of talent.  Take a look at their roster in 2007-2008.  The team was a mixture of washed-up veterans and promising young players (well, okay, Mike Cameron wasn't "washed up", but you get the point).  More importantly, Yost guided the team over the hump.

Is he the answer?  No, probably not.  I am not hailing Ned Yost as an unappreciated genius.  But I do believe that there are immediate expected benefits from Yost's presence.  The first and most obvious benefit is that Ned Yost has what might be referred to as a vehement disbelief in two things which Trey Hillman has fervently espoused, much to our collective chagrin:  Ned Yost does not rely on the sacrifice bunt, and Ned Yost tries to avoid sending runners unless the percentages for success are high.

He may not be the manager we want when it's time for this team to be seriously thinking about the joys of the post-season and making plans to close down the Plaza for an afternoon; despite my reasoning above, it's absolutely certain that we CAN say that we don't know if he can handle the pressure of a race.  He was starting to melt down on a personal level before he got sacked, after all.  But he may actually be the guy capable of forming this team into something the next guy can actually work with.  I'm actually optimistic, and it's for reasons other than "Ned Yost is not Trey Hillman".

One last little detail which I find amusing: Sveum wasn't retained as the manager in Milwaukee after the playoff loss.  He was instead replaced by Ken Macha, who of course had been moderately successful out in Oakland.

After having been over .500, cumulatively, for four straight years under Yost, the Brewers finished under .500 last year, and they're not much better than us this year, even though we did them a favor and let them upgrade at catcher.  Something to think about.