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A Look At Mike Aviles

I love Mike Aviles. He's probably my favorite Royal, for whatever that's worth. He's the kind of late blooming, little acclaimed player that stat guys and bloggers latch onto, and I'm no different. At the moment, despite returning from a serious injury and uneven playing time, Aviles is hitting .388/.388/.513. No, that .388 batting average is not going to last, and yes, I'd like to see him take his first walk. Nevertheless, my fanboy side feels like this is very good news, confirming that 2008's breakout season was legitimate. That's probably not actually true, but it is what I want to believe.

  • If anything, Aviles's hot start has bought him time. I dont' really think the organization believes in him with any real gusto, and it isn't obvious where he plays, not with beloved options like Getz and Betancourt around. Nevertheless, if there's one org. that sees a high batting average and buys in, its this one. Starting .388 has introduced another data point after 2009's poor/injured entry.
  • Aviles has never been a huge walks guy. His BB% in 2008 was only 4.1%, and his numbers in the minors weren't much higher. Then again, if you were Aviles right now, playing for this team, would you be patient? Mike is playing for his baseball life, and can probably notice (at some level) that walks don't get you noticed as much as singles do. He's trying to prove he's healthy and capable of hitting. I can get that.
  • Two homers in his first 49 PAs is a good start, but moving forward, I'd like to see Aviles show a little more doubles power, given that the singles are going to drop off. At the moment, he's sporting a high LD%, which might help.
  • With his current numbers banked, ZIPS projects Aviles to end up with a .298/.323/.428 line. To tell the truth, that's not super great for a middle infielder, but it is a line you can certainly take. Again, the OBP is going to be an issue unless Mike hits .330.
  • Seriously though, damn this roster.

Comment 78 comments  |  2 recs  | 

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good post

go mike!

Sad he is even forced to prove himself worthy of playing time AGAIN.

You would think hitting .325 as a rookie shortstop with 11? HR would pretty much guarantee your place is held while you recover from an injury.

Especially since he egged the faces of the powers that be by being successful the first time around. I guess they are still convinced that was just a fluke and there is no way he could do it again.

here’s some more egg

~~~Damn, I wish i had a clever signature

by who am i? on May 17, 2010 2:51 PM EDT reply actions  

"With his current numbers banked, ZIPS projects Aviles to end up with a .298/.323/.428 line."

Only 13 middle infielders in Royals history have posted a .750 OPS or better.

One of course was Mike Aviles in 2008.

Cookie Rojas 1971 – .763
Frank White 1982 – .788
UL Washington 1982 – .750
Frank White 1984 – .756
Frank White 1986 – .787
Keith Lockhart 1995 – .833
Jay Bell 1997 – .829
Jose Offerman 1997 – .753
Jose Offerman 1998 – .841
Angel Berroa 2003 – .789
Mark Grudzielanek 2007 – .772
Mike Aviles 2008 – .833
Alberto Callaspo 2009 – .813

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 17, 2010 2:52 PM EDT reply actions  

"Only 13"

I just got really depressed…again.

by scobes on May 17, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

techincally not 13 players

13 seasons……

Aviles fighting for a job, with the 2nd best out of basically 80 seasons ?

~~~Damn, I wish i had a clever signature

by who am i? on May 17, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

ugh

thanks for pointing that out

by scobes on May 17, 2010 3:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

always glad to help :)

~~~Damn, I wish i had a clever signature

by who am i? on May 17, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

I give it 4-6 weeks

before Ned sits Yuni down in favor of Aviles near every day.

He made a big to-do in his pre-game press conference about loving players that perform ABOVE their talent level, and that work to achieve everything the earn, as opposed to having things handed to them. When he was asked a follow up question if there was anybody on the current 25 man roster that fit that bill, he produced 2 names, without pause. Aviles & Maier.

He said that was how Podsednik got his initial break when he managed Milwaukee…There was a kid named Alex Sanchez, that was the Brewers reigning Rookie of the Year that was the incumbent in CF…Ned didn’t like his work ethic, so after like 2 weeks, he replaced him with Pods.

I fully expect a month to 6 weeks of stuff very similar to Trey. Playing JoGui, Yuni, Pods & Ankiel (when healthy) too much. When it becomes apparent that the team isn’t going to compete in 2010 (assuming we don’t rattle off a 15-5 stretch over 20 games or something silly to give the illusion of competitiveness) we will see those guys jettisoned in favor of the younger crew

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on May 17, 2010 3:02 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Agree

"This guy here is DEAD!"
"Cross him OFF then!"

by Casper01 on May 17, 2010 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

Really?
When he was asked a follow up question if there was anybody on the current 25 man roster that fit that bill, he produced 2 names, without pause. Aviles & Maier.

He just rose about 33 percentage points in the polls in this precinct.

I am now channeling Will McDonald's optimism.

by jonfmorse on May 17, 2010 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Maybe I'm Looking

Too hard for good signs, but I have a lot better feeling about Yost than I had about Trey since the first half of ’08.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on May 17, 2010 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

except

Dayton won’t let that happen. He needs to prevent egg on his own face.

New body. Same soul.

by kabrink on May 21, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Believe it!

I did within a couple months of Aviles arriving on the scene. I even had my nephew get his gloved signed by Mike before a game, and he was gracious enough to do so.

by stlJeff on May 17, 2010 3:10 PM EDT reply actions  

when you're 29

and you’re trying to get to the end of your second year… then there’s a good reason to get a fire under your ass

one difference between Baird and Moore where Baird was right involves drafting low profile college Seniors. Moore could be avoiding the signing of expensive old guys if he had some 26 year olds whose ML careers won’t last long in the first place.

A huge percentage of baseball players don’t last past 3 years. Baseball is a high turnover form of employment. And ultimately, people who are likable have to be told that they’re gone.

While Mike Aviles probably won’t be in the majors by 2015, he’s making the most of his opportunities and we should try to draft low-profile guys who seem to make the most of their opportunities. (The Org might want to invest in some intelligence agency tactics to learn as much as possible for these decisions)

Talented players who don’t try enough might get too many chances, but dudes who make the most of what they have possess a lot of value.

You could probably find a lot of players with Aviles’ talent, but what makes Aviles so good is his drive. Unfortunately for scouting, they haven’t figured out a good test for baseball drive.

I went to the Plaza and said "this is where the parade will be held when Dayton Moore gets fired"

by BHWick on May 17, 2010 3:10 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

I can understand what Moore tried to do

but he might have been well served trying to diversify the farm system as well… some older/less sexy but useful prospects might have helped the last few years, and might have allowed Greinke to play on a winning team as a royal

instead, we’ll have Moose and Hos up and contributing just in time for Greinke, DDJ, Gordon and Butler to all be gone

by Freneau on May 17, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

I really hate drafting HS kids when you're only first beginning to do an "honest" rebuild...

…because you get what Will just described: Our “premier” players (Greinke, Butler) will likely be leaving or already gone by the time the HS kids develop to the point of being called up. Then THEY’RE gone by the time the NEXT batch of HS kids arrive, and the cycle just keeps repeating itself. Draft some college kids for a while, Dayton! My God, you don’t even have to have read Moneyball to understand that (and we know he likely hasn’t read Moneyball…or “The Book”…or anything by Bill James…or FanGraphs…okay, I’m just rambling now, sorry…)

"This guy here is DEAD!"
"Cross him OFF then!"

by Casper01 on May 17, 2010 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think this post can be stressed enough.

If you look back at Royals history, this description applies to some key parts of Royal championship teams: Tom Poquette. U.L. Washington. Darryl Motley. Buddy Black. Pat Sheridan. Onix Concepcion.

None of these guys were great, but they were aging minor-leaguers who we had hanging around in the system and who filled in holes we needed filled. Of course, it’s easier to use guys like this to “fill holes” when the surface around those holes consists of George Bretts and Frank Whites and Hal McRaes and John Mayberrys and Darrell Porters and Amos Otises and Al Cowenses and over a decade’s worth of great pitching staffs, but that’s not the point. The point is that you don’t have to have great prospects all the way from 1-9 in the lineup.

Oh, and Dan Quisenberry technically belongs on that list too, but he doesn’t exactly fit because he had the unmitigated gall to be good for a decade.

I am now channeling Will McDonald's optimism.

by jonfmorse on May 17, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

unmitigated gall to be good for a decade.

Yeah, who needs a guy like that

New body. Same soul.

by kabrink on May 21, 2010 5:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

We'll see what happens

A .318 wOBA going forward (ZiPS RoS) isn’t good, but it’s decent for an average-fielding SS or good-fielding 2B.

Super-small sample issues qualifications noted, things worth watching:

  • Despite the lack of walks so far this season, Aviles is swinging at less pitches out of the zone than in either his miracles 2008 or disaster 2009.
  • He’s making insanely frequent contact so far (92.7%)
  • He’s actually swinhing at less than half the pitches he sees.
  • His batted-ball profile so far this season resembles 2008 more than 2009. A .395 BABIP is clearly way beyond what almost anyone is capable of, but he’s making quality contact on balls in play
  • I doubt he’s an 11/2% HR/FB guy, and both his homers this season have been just enoughs. Most players are around 30% for that, as was Aviles in 2008.
  • I won’t bother with platoon splits this season so far, but has big ones for his career line.

Again, Aviles doesn’t need to keep this up to be useful. Indeed, while I doubt he’s really even a league average offensive player (true talent), if he’s anywhere close to being an average defensive shortstop, that’s an above-average player.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on May 17, 2010 3:25 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Nice analysis, Matt - thanks!

"This guy here is DEAD!"
"Cross him OFF then!"

by Casper01 on May 17, 2010 3:35 PM EDT up reply actions  

this is good to know

thanks

- .... .- - .----. ... / .-- .... .- - / ... .... . / ... .- .. -..

by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 17, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

Is there a quick and dirty stat in the works

that incorporates a batters LD% with his BABIP? It seems Aviles expected BABIP should be higher than normal since, like in 2008, he gets quite a few hard hit balls out of his contact. Which makes his 92% contact even more impressive to me.

I know he’s not crushing the ball near enough to where .395 is sustainable but it would be kind of nice if there was an xBABIP or something we could reference for these players on crazy fast or slow small samples.

by lionsden on May 17, 2010 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

it actually came out years ago

the quick and dirty expected BABIP = LD rate + .120. For Aviles to date, his expected BABIP would be .222 +.120 = .342.

There are better calculations that take into account a batter’s full batted ball profile, and BABIP will vary by player skill (fast guys should do better than their expected BABIP), so the + .120 method works as a ballpark estimate rather than anything precise.

by Gopherballs on May 17, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh awesome, thanks for that

Probably something I should have found with better fangraphs reading, but I appreciate the explanation. Just an estimate is exactly what I was looking for. Something to differentiate how much falling back to earth should be expected between Aviles and Kendall’s hot starts.

by lionsden on May 17, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

? from leftfield

If you reach on an error, doesn’t that count towards OBP? His OBP and BA are the same despite reaching on an error the other night!

by 102win on May 17, 2010 3:49 PM EDT reply actions  

That still counts as getting on base

In terms of OBA.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 17, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think ROE counts as "getting on base" for OBA

But I could be wrong.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on May 17, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

I believe you are right

I think under the official scorer’s rules, the ROE counts as both an at-bat and a plate appearance so it counts against both BA and OBA.

by Gopherballs on May 17, 2010 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Being pedantic about it

“Plate appearance” is an irrelevancy in this regard, as “plate appearance” isn’t technically part of the OBP formula. A sac bunt is a plate appearance, but doesn’t get factored in at all.

I am now channeling Will McDonald's optimism.

by jonfmorse on May 17, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

ROE does not count toward OBP.

The technical definition of OBP is (H+BB+HBP) / (AB+BB+HBP+SF). You’re charged with an AB for a ROE, so it actually counts against you.

I am now channeling Will McDonald's optimism.

by jonfmorse on May 17, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

What

Can someone define OBP?

by 102win on May 17, 2010 3:55 PM EDT reply actions  

?

Are you sure.. I thought it was

H + BB + HBP + Reached on error
___________________________

PA – SF

by 102win on May 17, 2010 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

Technically

PA – SF is the same as AB + BB + HBP + SF

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on May 17, 2010 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wasn’t there a situation where TPJ had an OBP lower than his BA at one point?

I think that occurred because he was thrown out trying to stretch a 1B into a 2B…

The formulas being bandied around (as right as they are at first glance) don’t account for that, albeit rare, occurrence…

BOOM! ROASTED!

by GoBabies!! on May 17, 2010 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions  

I don't think

Getting thrown out trying to take an extra base matters! What about reached on an error?? Anybody..Buehler?

by 102win on May 17, 2010 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

Sorry

I meant the reached on an error?? Do we all really not know, kind of odd. We throw these numbers out and don’t know what they are…..We should all work in the budget office for the federal government.

by 102win on May 17, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

LOL

"This guy here is DEAD!"
"Cross him OFF then!"

by Casper01 on May 17, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

And knowing is half the battle

God that was a terrible movie – almost ruined my childhood memories of the cartoon.

"This guy here is DEAD!"
"Cross him OFF then!"

by Casper01 on May 17, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions  

That's because it doesn't count

He got on base. Getting thrown out at 2B is a baserunning “error”, not a failure to reach base.

And TPJ’s OBP being lower than his BA was a result of sacrifices combined with no walks.

I am now channeling Will McDonald's optimism.

by jonfmorse on May 17, 2010 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

Remind me...

…sacrifice bunts count as an official AB, but sacrifice flies do not…yes? Pretty sure that’s right …

"This guy here is DEAD!"
"Cross him OFF then!"

by Casper01 on May 17, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Other way around.

The logic is basically that sac bunt does not count as an AB because the hitter is deliberately giving himself up, whereas on a sac fly the hitter is presumably swinging away normally.

In fact, they shouldn’t even call the sac fly a sacrifice at all; it confuses the issue. It’s no more a “sacrifice” than the result of a routine ground-ball fielder’s choice is.

I am now channeling Will McDonald's optimism.

by jonfmorse on May 17, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

Actually, you didn't

I had a brain fart. A sac fly is not an AB either.

I am now channeling Will McDonald's optimism.

by jonfmorse on May 17, 2010 5:22 PM EDT up reply actions  

It is awesome

But oneday, someone is going to go all Pujols/Lidge on it.

by kcbottom9th on May 17, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

Shame on your for harboring such thoughts!

But yeah, you’re probably right. Best guess? Miguel Cabrera will be the one to rename it, ala, Major League 2.

"This guy here is DEAD!"
"Cross him OFF then!"

by Casper01 on May 17, 2010 4:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

Personal Aviles story - why I love the guy

Mike became one of my favorite players after the 2008 season, as I am one who relentlessly pulls for the underdog, and I gained an additional reason soon thereafter. When he was playing in Puerto Rico that winter, my girlfriend at the time, who was living there at the time, happened to go to one of his games. When she heard my excitement that she was watching him play, she waited for him in the parking lot after the game, but didn’t have anything for him to sign. He went back into the clubhouse, which required him getting someone to unlock it, and got a ball and signed it for me.

by AJaha25 on May 17, 2010 5:41 PM EDT reply actions  

I generally like Mike

but I am getting very concerned about his BCP being too high.

~~~Damn, I wish i had a clever signature

by who am i? on May 17, 2010 7:25 PM EDT reply actions  

If he actually gets to play for a while (i.e. more than a year and change)

I wonder if his walk rate would go up a decent amount. I seem to remember that the umpire’s strike zone is cavernous for him whereas merely mediocre veterans like Ankiel get the benefit of the doubt much more often. Then again, perhaps that’s one of the leading reasons why walk rates go up as you get older- sure, you might be getting better judgement as a veteran but even free swinging JoGui can luck into more walks when they only call half as many strikes on him as someone like Mike Aviles

by sterlingice on May 18, 2010 10:08 AM EDT reply actions  

Walk rates usually go up as players get older

But Aviles never walked much in the minors, either

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on May 18, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Seems to me he's locked up through 2014.

thanks to time in Omaha which should prevent him from accumulating a full six years on the 25-man before the end of 2013.

He’d become arb-eligible following 2011, unless he’s a super-two after this year.

I am now channeling Will McDonald's optimism.

by jonfmorse on May 18, 2010 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions  

Aviles story

A few weeks after Aviles got called up in 2009, I went to a game with my father and younger brothers. My youngest brother (10 at the time) loves hanging around the parking lot before and after games to try to get autographs. Mike was walking to his car with presumably his girlfriend, and was about to get in and drive off, but my brother yelled, “Hey Mike, we’re from Omaha! Great game.”

Aviles hopped out of his car, jogged over to the fence where my brother was and signed his baseball and said thanks for supporting him in Omaha.

I thought that was really classy.

by Tubmin on May 18, 2010 1:34 PM EDT reply actions  

With Any Luck

Mike will wind up a utility player on a good Royals team in the near future. He should start at MIF for the next two years, then we should hope someone beats him out of the job. After that, he could be super Sporqie.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on May 18, 2010 2:00 PM EDT reply actions  

Aviles shouldn't be a starter

because he just doesn't look like a SS is supposed to look.

New body. Same soul.

by kabrink on May 21, 2010 5:20 PM EDT reply actions  

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