Royals Review Prospect Pulse: May
by nwroyal on May 6, 2010 12:01 AM EDT
in Kansas City Royals Minor Leagues
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It's been six long months but the Prospect Pulse is back--which means we can over analyze a month's worth of data and come up with irrational conclusions. Our top prospects started off pretty well but there was scuffling from some of the lower ranked prospects. I'm also going to include a poll question each month--this month is about Derrick Robinson.
I put this list together before the Rosa trade, so I put Rey Navarro in Rosa's spot. I would have ranked Navarro a little lower (around #20) but didn't want to redo my spreadsheet. That reflects my feelings on the deal--not crazy about it but its not a horrible deal. Small loss for the Royals---which if we grade on a curve compared to other deals in recent history equals a small win. Navarro so far this year has upped his walk rate and been unlucky on balls in play--but he is going from the hitter friendly California league to the Carolina league.
I also wrote this before the latest bad start from Tim Melville--worried about this kid. After this last outing, I would probably drop him another 5 slots or so. He's been beyond bad this year--hopefully he'll fix whatever needs fixin' soon.
For hitters, the stats listed are avg/obp/slg. For pitchers I list: k/9---bb/9---FIP.
| Rank | Name | Last Month | April stats | YTD | Comment |
| 1 | Mike Montgomery--LHP--AA | 1 | 11.9/1.4/1.34 | Has yet to be challenged in his pro career. | |
| 2 | Eric Hosmer--1B--HighA | 3 | 421/500/618 | Making last year a distant memory | |
| 3 | Aaron Crow--RHP--AA | 2 | 5.1/3.1/5.36 | A little inconsistent and would like to see more K's. | |
| 4 | Wil Myers--C--LowA | 4 | 232/293/439 | Started off a little slow but has been heating up. Has also been unlucky. | |
| 5 | Mike Moustakas--3B--AA | 5 | 324/427/735 | Made an impression in the week he's been back | |
| 6 | John Lamb--LHP--LowA | 10 | 10.1/5.6/3.75 | Off to a great start | |
| 7 | Noel Arguelles--LHP--DL | 6 | Not sure when we will get to see him | ||
| 8 | Tim Melville--RHP--HighA | 7 | 8.5/8.5/5.47 | Rough first month, let's hope May brings better things. Needs to find command. | |
| 9 | Kelvin Herrera--RHP--LowA | 18 | 10/5.4/3.71 | Love this kid, healthy and off to a great start | |
| 10 | Kila Kaaihue--1B--AAA | 13 | 306/444/611 | Perhaps 2009 was the fluke and 2008 was the real deal. | |
| 11 | Derrick Robinson--CF--AA | 25 | 329/427/471 | Starting to believe as he is continuing his strong finish from last year. | |
| 12 | Johnny Giavotella--2B--AA | 15 | 324/427/392 | Believe in Johnny G! | |
| 13 | David Lough--OF--AAA | 10 | 250/289/345 | Rough start, lack of plate discipline is a problem. | |
| 14 | Chris Dwyer--LHP--HighA | 11 | 9.2/7.2/4.82 | It's all about control and consistency for Dwyer right now | |
| 15 | Dan Duffy--LHP--N/A | 6 | Greg Schaum seems to think he will be back--I'm holding on to hope. | ||
| 16 | Tyler Sample--RHP--LowA | 16 | 7.1/8.0/4.61 | Fighting the strike zone again after showing good control last year. | |
| 17 | Jordan Parraz--OF--AAA | 12 | 156/202/273 | Was last year a fluke? | |
| 18 | Rey Navarro--SS--HighA |
20 | 228/292/316 | Moving from hitters league to pitchers league |
|
| 19 | Blake Wood--RHP--AAA | 22 | 5.7/3.3/3.48 | So-so start but hard to believe he's not better than a couple of guys in our big league bullpen |
|
| 20 | Luis Coleman--RHP--AA | 16 | 5.2/3.5/5.94 | So-so start after amazing pro debut last year | |
| 21 | Carlos Fortuna--RHP-EXST | 18 | Thought he might get assignment to Burlington--but it look like Idaho Falls in June | ||
| 22 | Cheslor Cuthbert--3B--EXST | 19 | Look for him in Arizona this summer. | ||
| 23 | Yowil Espinal--SS--EXST | 20 | Another guy I'd love to see in full season ball. | ||
| 24 | Manuel Pina--C--AA | 43 | 283/375/472 | Started off hot last year for the Rangers before tailing off--interested to see how he does this year. | |
| 25 | Patrick Keating--RHP--HighA | 28 | 13.1/4.1/4.32 | Continues to have an amazing K rate--needs to drop that BB rate. | |
| 26 | Tim Smith--OF--AA | 27 | 333/375/467 | Had some injuries, hit well in limited ABs. | |
| 27 | Salvador Perez--C--HighA | 31 | 286/321/347 | A sleeper worth keeping an eye on. | |
| 28 | Edgar Osuna--LHP--AA | NR | 7.7/0.7/3.63 | Great control keeps him competitive. Iffy fastball is a question mark. | |
| 29 | Clint Robinson--1B--AA | NR | 275/405/435 | Are the on base abilities for real? Intriguing. | |
| 30 | Chris Hayes--RHP--AAA | 29 | 0.0/0.0/3.66 | Phantom injury put him on DL. Waits as Royals bullpen burns. | |
| 31 | Brandon Sisk--LHP--AA | 33 | 9.0/4.5/5.52 | Another bullpen arm, struggling early | |
| 32 | Mario Santiago--RHP--AA | NR | 6.0/2.4/2.79 | Building on his impressive winter league performance. | |
| 33 | Buddy Baumann--RHP--HighA | NR | 13.2/4.9/1.96 | This guy has a big arm in a relatively small body | |
| 34 | Eric Basurto--RHP-HighA | 11.1/1.2/1.45 | little old but love the Ks vs. BB | ||
| 35 | Blaine Hardy--RHP--AA | NR | 4.5/1.1/2.79 | Not the greatest stuff but results are impressive | |
| 36 | Rowdy Hardy--LHP--AA | 57 | 5.9/0.0/2.12 | The other half of the Hardy boys is doing well | |
| 37 | Hilton Richardson--CF--LowA | 21 | 224/274/379 | Was afraid this might happen--OK power but can't get on base | |
| 38 | Crawford Simmons--LHP--EXST | 32 | We'll see him in June | ||
| 39 | Keaton Hayenga--RHP--EXST | 26 | Wonder if we see him in LowA if someone gets hurt | ||
| 40 | Jeff Bianchi--SS--DL | 9 | Tough guy to rank--he's down here for safe keeping until 2011 when he's hopefully healthy | ||
| 41 | Greg Holland--RHP--AAA | 30 | 8.0/2.0/2.54 | Gets a little lost in the shuffle but doing well at AAA | |
| 42 | Alex Llanos--CF--EXST | 35 | Interested to see if the progress on the bat is for real | ||
| 43 | Jason Taylor--3B--HighA | 40 | 224/260/403 | Bad start but heated up at the end of the month | |
| 44 | Barry Bowden--RHP--HighA | 58 | 12.9/4.7/3.89 | Another bullpen arm with a huge K rate | |
| 45 | Jose Bonilla--C--LowA | 37 | 200/349/229 | Falling behind some of the other catchers in the system | |
| 46 | Nick Van Stratten--OF--AA | 53 | 284/324/403 | Seems like he's been around forever. | |
| 47 | Everett Teaford--LHP--AA | NR | 8.7/1.9/3.53 | Had done alright with the move to AA | |
| 48 | Malcolm Culver--3B--EXST | 36 | Another guy I'm surprised didn't find his way on to a full season roster--which isn't exactly encouraging. | ||
| 49 | Jarrod Dyson--CF--DL | 45 | Just a month ago, there was a lot of talk about Dyson and Robinson was somewhat forgotten. | ||
| 50 | Gerard Hall--2B--LowA | NR | 270/400/405 | Pickup who is showing skills at Low-A |
Player of the Month: Mike Montgomery. His numbers were amazing, he breezed through High-A (his finals Wilmington numbers--combined with last year: 76.2ip 52h 0hr 16w 79k, ERA under 2, WHIP under 1. He had the best minor league pitching performance that BA's JJ Cooper had ever seen in person. He's now in the mix for 3rd best pitching prospect in baseball (Strasburg and Chapman at the top) and he's probably the best pitching prospect the Royals have had since Zack. After a rained out 1.2ip, he'll make his AA debut that counts later this week.
Poll Question: Derrick Robinson's OPS in 2007 was 597, in 2008 it was 638 and late last season it was in the mid 500s. He tweaked his stance a little and his OPS over last month+ of the season was over 800. Now one month into AA he's at 898 thanks to increasing his walk rate, increasing his power and an high BABIP.
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Great stuff
look forward to these every month as it gives me hope that maybe few of these guys can turn things around in KC
hope duffy returns
he was one of my favorites. i didn’t read what schaum wrote — what reasons did he cite for a potential return?
batter nine you sucky
Sickels is not as optimistic
He has stated several times that he doesn’t expect to see Duffy ever again in uniform.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on May 3, 2010 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Duffy
I am probably going to have an article on this in the next 24 hours…I think it should give more insight into his story….
I hope
I think that Derrick will have to hit well all season to be regarded as a legit prospect.
If he can he is the type of athlete this organization has been in serious need of for quite some time.
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
i think you're right
i really wish i could get on board the robinson-train, and i’m hoping he’s on the carlos beltran career trajectory, but i just don’t see it happening. for one thing, beltran actually showed an ability to hit homeruns during his “lean” years in the minor leagues.
derrick’s skill set seems to be entirely speed-based, and his early season numbers are boosted entirely by his ability to hit triples. it reminds me in some ways of TPJ’s quick start in 2007 on the parent club. granted, robinson’s also shown the ability this year to at least draw walks, so perhaps he’s not entirely a lost cause yet. i’ll cross my fingers
batter nine you sucky
The most encouraging part of the Derrick Robinson story is
that the improvement in his numbers can be linked to a change in his batting stance. There wasn’t just a day when he magically “got it”. He recognized a mechanical flaw in his swing and made a change. I hope he can keep it up. My guess would be that he will have some problems with the breaking ball at the next level however.
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
Sometimes players improve
He’s only 22. Drafted as an ‘athelete’, he was expected to be a project. He hasn’t shown any ability to hit in years 1-4 tho, so it’ll take more than a month to prove that he’s turned the corner.
He's never going to be Beltran
Doesn’t have the power—but if he can get on base, have enough pop to keep pitchers honest, play very good defense, and steal bases at a high success rate—then he can be a valuable player. The last two haven’t been much of an issue and the first two have improved over his last 200 minor league ABs but he definitely needs to show that he can do it over a full season.
What's his upside?
Michael Bourn? Scottie Pods in his prime?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
those would be my guesses
it’s possible he could develop enough power to hit double-digit homers annually, which would probably put his upside at johnny damon-levels (think first two years with the Red Sox, not his time in KC).
not completely out of the realm of possibilities but definitely improbable, at least based on what he’s shown so far
batter nine you sucky
Not All Of
It.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on May 3, 2010 5:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Denard Span
scary similar minor league paths. Span has a little thicker body and thus a bit more power, but their similar type of raw athletes at the time of the draft.
baseball rules.
another one
http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/L/kenny-lofton.shtml
Lofton wasn’t a big prospect as an amateur (17th round). Power gradually emerged as he got closer to his prime. Not sure if Robinson would ever hit for that much power but it’s a possible outcome.
baseball rules.
I seem to recall
The Royals tossing around a lot of Lofton comparisons when talking about D-Rob.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I think there is still some teeth-gnashing
In the organization for having passed up a Kenny Lofton for Brent Mayne trade back in the day.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Lofton is the best case scenario
Span works—but I think Robinson has less power (as you mentioned with Lofton) and more speed.
Jacoby Ellsbury with a better glove
But the best comp (already mentioned) is Michael Bourn—which is nothing to sneeze at—-dude was at 4.3 wins on fangraphs
Agreed
I hadn’t even scrolled down to see your entry when I saw the comp question above and immediately thought of Span.
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on May 3, 2010 2:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Buddy Baumann!
Let's just trust the process.
by trusttheprocess on May 3, 2010 11:48 AM EDT reply actions
Robinson's .424 BABIP (versus 18% line drive rate) kind of sticks out
Speedy guys who hit the ball on the ground often can post high BABIP, but even in a best case scenario, it is going to fall something like 75 points over time (which will drop the OBA and SLG too).
He is not at the point where his rates start stabilizing, but the walk rate increasing and the strike out rate staying the same are encouraging in the short term. He does not profile as a great contact hitter, so the walk rate will be key.
Let’s see where he is a few months down the line, but this could be a nice development.
what is Richardson doing so low?
Move him up 30 spots. He’s 20, he’s an outfielder, and he’s got tools.
baseball rules.
which 20 year old toolsy prospect are you talking about?
as for Richardson—you don’t really think he should be#7-10 range, do you? Richardson is 21 and I can see a case for moving him up 10 spots but not much higher until he shows something.
TWSS
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on May 3, 2010 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Loved the list and..
…the narrative, but chuckled heartily in agreement over this: “Which means we can over analyze a month’s worth of data and come up with irrational conclusions.” Amen. – TL
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
I voted 'on the fence', but i'm a believer.
Not quite ready to say the position is covered for the next decade by Kenny Lofton Jr., but if he can play good D and be an OK hitter, then he could easily be a long-term starter. A la MITCH, he doesn’t have to hit HRs to be a positive addition.
by SagehenMacGyver47 on May 3, 2010 1:49 PM EDT reply actions
Yet once Ankiel's healthy,
MITCH is buried again.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
love it
we need our high-round picks to pan out, but also some lower-round guys to surprise.
"He once had an awkward moment, just to see how it felt...he lives vicariously...through himself- He is the most interesting man in the world"
by Home Run Tony Cogan on May 3, 2010 1:50 PM EDT reply actions
I love this stuff
But it just doesn’t matter. When older guys here leave, DMGM will simply sign more overpriced retreads. Oh we will see his first round picks, at least. But the others, particularly the ones that predate him, will either be traded for marginal prospects or blocked by an overpriced retread until they are post prime free agents.
Stay Thirsty, My friends!
how many prospects in the system "predate" DM?
None of the top ones. Derrick Robinson is the kind of player he’s apparently been looking for in a CF for a long time, so he’ll get a shot if he’s for real.
baseball rules.
The only reason I get excited about the farm system
is that hopefully these guys will be around when we get a new GM. But I definitely share the fear that Kila and Gordon are going to sold off cheap.
Thinking about a new GM
is nice, but unrealistic. Glass has been at the head of this team since Ewing Kaufman died, and the official owner for over 10 years. He has hired exactly 1 General Manager. Robinson was always going to step down when the ownership situation was resolved and Glass just promoted Baird from assistant GM. We want change because we care. Glass does not care.
I am equally pessimistic about a new manager, because to fire Trey, DMGM would have to admit he was wrong-something he has trouble doing.
Forgive the pessimism, but the trade of Rosa and demotion of Gordon has me in a funk about this team and it’s future. I hope I am wrong.
Stay Thirsty, My friends!
sorry to all who missed the Burlington Bees play on MLB Network today
Myers made an impression. Crushed a double to left-center gap and had a single. Also struck out and popped up twice.
There’s a plus arm, then there’s a howitzer behind the plate. Myers has a fuggin howitzer. I was stunned by his throw to catch a guy stealing. And it was right on the money. Had the guy out by a lot.
baseball rules.
I don't trust any offensive prospect whose primary skill
is not hitting. To me, a speedy offensive prospect with no stick is the equivalent of a junkballer in AA with decent numbers.
Don't be dissin' Rowdy and Disco
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on May 3, 2010 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn't that the question?
Can he hit or not? If he’s Adrian Ortiz (talk about a waste of a draft pick)—then he’s not worth talking about. But if there is a chance that his OPS is 750ish or above, then I think he’s somebody to get excited about.
A question about the question
I was thinking of doing one of these poll questions with the list each month. My intention was to spark discussion but, for this month at least, Derrick Robinson has dominated the thread. I don’t mind the discussion but it kind of overshadows talk about other prospects. Should I do a poll in a separate post at a separate time or keep them together?
Keep them together for now
It is nice having the discussion on the state of the prospects in one thread. If the poll player continues to dominate to the point of killing all other discussion, you can awlays make that change later.
Robinson might have dominated the conversation just because (1) there has not been much discussion about him previously, unlike the very top prospects who seem to generate their own fanshot after every decent game and (2) the minor league season is only a month old, so performances to date are not going be very meaningful — Manny Pina with an 808 OPS after 50 AB is not going to generate much talk, but maybe after 250 AB, it might.
I'd separate them
Put the polls in a separate fanpost, and just do a link from the main fanpost.
I’d like to have one thread of discussion on the list and a different one debating the poll responses.
My $0.02
Why don’t we have a sign on the keyboard?
"I think a tactical error might have been committed by the manager of the Royals"
Re: Navarro
Heard Rany today talk that he liked the deal. But from what I hear, he is an all glove, no hit shortstop. The Royals aren’t exactly SS University, so I am on the fence. But if Rosa isn’t good enough to make this bullpen, then I don’t see him making any major league team. Of course, Royals don’t have a good recent track record of trading relief pitchers for position players. I guess my stance would be that Rosa hardly makes a dent in the majors, and Navarro becomes a utility player at best. So if DM is still around, he’ll get 4/40 in 2015.
Stuck following the Royals since 1976.
D Rob
I’m guessing at his peak, D Rob will be a better Centerfielder than any other CF we’ve had since Beltran. With that said, I dont care how weak his hitting is as long as he can be on par as a leadoff hitter, and steal a ton of bases. Plus at that point in time we may have some meat in the middle of the lineup, and it would be awesome to have a speedster to help create havoc on the bases. I’m interested to hear people’s accounts from seeing him play this year, whether or not he looks legit.
If he's so weak at hitting
it doesn’t really matter how fast he is. Unless you like Willy Tavares.
The interesting part from BA's hot sheet from last week about Robinson
was that the Royals wanted him to give up switch hitting. It was Robinson’s idea to narrow his stance last August which has led to the improved offense since then. So in other words the Royals really had nothing to with his improvement. Which makes sense.
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