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So, Let's Talk About Miguel Olivo

I was never a huge Miguel Olivo fan. He's the kind of player that always looks better in someone else's uniform, which, I suppose unfortunately for us, is now the case. On the outside, you see the home runs, on the inside, you watch a player who gets to 0-2 with two bad swings seemingly every... single... time.

Initially it looked like the Royals made a wise, financially motivated, decision letting Olivo walk. Then they went out and signed Jason Kendall for more money than Olivo is making with the Rockies. Classic Royals. There is no progress. Ever.

Olivo is making just $2 million this season, with a club option for 2011 (that will probably vest) for $2.5 million. Kendall is making $2.25 million this year, and will earn $3.75 million next season.


G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2010 - Miguel Olivo 30 106 16 29 3 0 8 20 11 27 2 1 .274 .336 .528



G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2010 - Jason Kendall 40 144 9 41 7 0 0 7 12 16 3 2 .285 .348 .333

 

What the hell, man? Where is the .280 OBP guy we had to deal with? Not fair!

Star-divide

Olivo's OBP is an astounding .336. By comparison, that's like a normal player posting a .450 OBP. Olivo has never been over .300 for a season, and he's on pace to absolutely shatter his previous career high in walks, which is... wait for it... 20. Of course, he's in the National League now, but he's hit in the number 6 spot most of the season, so it isn't like he's getting a ton of "the pitcher's on deck" walks.

I don't think Olivo will sustain his current OBP, but I do think he'll post a new career high, probably somewhere around .315. His current OBP isn't really batting average driven, and as you can see above, in less playing time, he's walked nearly as much as St. Kendall, who has OBP as his only skill. Perhaps something has clicked for Olivo.

The Royals were probably right not to employ both Olivo and Buck, however it increasingly looks like they whiffed when it came to letting them both go, only to bring in an older, more expensive Jason Kendall. Then again, the Royals are allowing 0.13 runs per game fewer this season (which I'm sure has nothing to do with the glut of cold games early or better defense in the outfield), so we now know how to account for the Kendall's work with the pitching staff.

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He is on course

To obliterate his career high in walks (currently 20 in 04)

by kcbottom9th on May 21, 2010 3:16 PM EDT reply actions  

well

its catcher… so… unclear

by Freneau on May 21, 2010 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions  

without doing the numbers

Olivo’s on his usual breakneck pace for wild pitches and passed balls.

As for the running game, Olivo’s +7 runs so far according to plus/minus; Kendall is -2.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on May 21, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

here is no progress. Ever.

Process over Progress

I think that's what the plaque on Dayton's wall reads

The Kansas City Royals; Successfully failing since 1986

by labbadabba on May 21, 2010 3:19 PM EDT reply actions  

I also heard...

that Olivo has improved his blocking at the plate. I don’t remember the source, though.

I think letting Buck walk was a mistake, and I thought so when they did it. Here were/are my reasons:

1) Pena isn’t going to start for this team. It just wasn’t going to happen.
2) There weren’t any FA that we were likely to go after that were any good.
3) Catcher wasn’t a pressing need.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on May 21, 2010 3:19 PM EDT reply actions  

Olivo, Coors Field, 2010: 22 for 52, 6 HR, 3 Doubles, 423/439/827
Olivo, on the Road, 2010: 7 for 54, 2 HR, 130/242/241

C’mon Will, 7 paragraphs and no sign that you checked the home/road splits? Coors Field might have a humidor, but it’s still a huge field at a high elevation, making good hitters out of anybody (Neifi Neftali Perez).

Olivo’s home numbers will likely fall, his road numbers will improve, the fall will surpass the improvement. Olivo was gonna outhit Kendall no matter what, but he’s helped by the fact that he plays in Denver.

And to complete the story

Jason Kendall, Kauffman Stadium, 2010: 13 for 54, 2 doubles, 241/359/278
Jason Kendall, on the Road, 2010: 28 for 90, 3 doubles, 311/340/367

I went to the Plaza and said "this is where the parade will be held when Dayton Moore gets fired"

by BHWick on May 21, 2010 3:24 PM EDT reply actions  

and of course

that almost all hitters hit better at home than on the road, except in extreme pitchers parks

and that Coors isn’t that extreme

and that it still counts

and that even park-adjusted, Olivo has still been way better

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on May 21, 2010 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions  

it's a fun quirk

to have your OBP 16 points above the average in Coors, and 112 points above the average on the road.

Olivo’s batting philosophy might involve “swing” at home and “just get on” on the road.

Over a full year, it’d be interesting to see if Olivo keeps looking at strikes (that percentage is down) or if he slumps and just reverts to what he was before. He’s making contact on 70% of pitches he swings at (up from 64% as a Royal). He has swung at under 50% of pitches as a Rockie (compared to 59% as a Royal)

Another point to look at, Olivo’s walkrate with the bases empty. He’s still good with the bases empty and bad with runners on

Still.. Miguel Olivo has to love a ballpark where sliders are less effective and you have to throw fastballs

I went to the Plaza and said "this is where the parade will be held when Dayton Moore gets fired"

by BHWick on May 21, 2010 3:40 PM EDT up reply actions  

that last part has something to it

imagine… a baseball team that actually understands what sort of hitters might play better in their own part (even if they have to bury Alex Gordon Chris Iannetta in order to find out.

An organization that relies on scouting… and actually has good scouts!

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on May 21, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

park adjusted batting runs above average

Kendall -2.5, 159 PA
Olivo +3.3, 119 PA
Buck +7.1, 122 PA

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on May 21, 2010 3:26 PM EDT reply actions  

It Doesn't Help

That teams start running on Kendall during the national anthem.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on May 21, 2010 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions  

john buck died in 2007

I don’t know who this other guys is

by Freneau on May 21, 2010 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

OBP+ of 96 so far in 2010

as long as the formula is OBP/lgOBP (park adjusted)

OPB .336 lg OBP .351

by SagehenMacGyver47 on May 21, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

The only thing I would take is Olivo’s power. Olivio strikes out around 25% of the time which means he can’t on a consistant basis move runners by hitting to the right side, you sure as hell can’t hit and run with the guy, he let’s more balls get to the backstop then I have ever seen.

by Mostate44 on May 21, 2010 3:34 PM EDT reply actions  

how many failed hit and runs do we try with kendall?

I swear we’re having at least one botched H&R every other game

by Freneau on May 21, 2010 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

Didn’t Kendall get thrown out a few nights ago with DeJesus at the plate?

by Mostate44 on May 21, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

yes

and or missed a sign

by Freneau on May 21, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions  

Hit and runs suck anyway

Just let the guys hit, instead of micromanaging and fucking things up.

by kcbottom9th on May 21, 2010 3:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

wOBA (or the same thing, park-adjusted linear weights)

show Olivo to be more valuable on offense this season. Period.

Of course, Buck is better than either of them.

There’s no OBP vs. SLG mystery any more.

Read this on wOBA

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on May 21, 2010 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm willing to bet that

Olivo has a lousy series, but that he hits a HR this weekend. Off of Zack Greinke

I went to the Plaza and said "this is where the parade will be held when Dayton Moore gets fired"

by BHWick on May 21, 2010 3:43 PM EDT reply actions  

I think he'll swing really hard...

but I predict that the ball will get past him.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on May 21, 2010 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions  

He'll signal the pitch to Zack

and Zack will throw it.

She said "are you stupid or just apathetic?"
I said "I don't know and I don't care"

by Royal Kingdom on May 21, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

He’ll try to hold a mound conference with Zack during the AB to call for the fastball down the middle

I went to the Plaza and said "this is where the parade will be held when Dayton Moore gets fired"

by BHWick on May 21, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions  

I think you need of these with John Buck as well

The other thing interesting is the games played / ABs of the 3. Kendall is by far and away the leader because other teams understand the value of giving the catcher days off.

Unless I'm wrong...
My Twitter feed

by Top Ramen on May 21, 2010 3:59 PM EDT reply actions  

other teams understand the value of giving the catcher days off

Only because their catchers don’t have Kendall’s bat. How can you NOT put that kind of production in the lineup every day?

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on May 21, 2010 4:03 PM EDT up reply actions  

In the Royals defense,

it’s not like they have a backup catcher.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on May 21, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

true

and carrying one pitcher allows us extra bullpen flexibility

by Freneau on May 21, 2010 5:53 PM EDT up reply actions  

and the Royals should just find some way to dump Brayan Pena

considering that it seems like they have 0 confidence in him to amass any playing time. They should just bring back Mizerock, considering he can do the same thing and the org would have the same confidence in him.

PS, Yost never started Kendall 151 times. He only started him 139 times in 150 games. Slightly lower percentage

I went to the Plaza and said "this is where the parade will be held when Dayton Moore gets fired"

by BHWick on May 21, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Olivo is also holding the running game in check

I know – all stolen bases are not entirely the fault of the catcher. The pitchers have to try to hold runners close, then get the ball to the plate quickly. On the other end of the play, the middle infielders have to catch the ball and apply the tag. Still here are the numbers, including Buck’s (note: I looked these up on my lunch break, so I don’t guarantee that they are correct).

Kendall – 346.1 innings – 0 PB – 45 SB allowed – 16 CS (that seems high?)
Olivo – 262.0 innings – 2 PB – 11 SB allowed – 13 CS
Buck – 271.1 innings – 0 PB – 24 SB allowed – 3 CS (ouch)

I also threw in passed balls as you can see. Since “PB” is a somewhat objective scorer’s decision, I should include wild pitches – in theory, a “good” catcher should be able to “prevent” WP like a good 1st baseman can save throwing errors. Here are the number of wild pitches thrown by each team (I didn’t have time to break this down by catcher):

KCR – 15 WP
COL – 19 WP
TOR – 24 WP (13 by Ricky Romero!)

Obviously, most of our WP will have happened when Kendall was catching.

Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau

by aHorseWithNoName on May 21, 2010 4:21 PM EDT reply actions  

and...

by “objective” I meant “subjective”. I hate it when I get those two mixed up.

Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau

by aHorseWithNoName on May 21, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

can't see Romero keeping that pace up

If he pitches 178 innings, he would have 37 wild pitches on that pace.

the most since 1889, where Mark Baldwin had 83 wild pitches in 513 2/3 IP

Juan Guzman had 26 wild pitches in 1993.

And Buck has only caught for 8 of those 13 wild pitches.

I went to the Plaza and said "this is where the parade will be held when Dayton Moore gets fired"

by BHWick on May 21, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions  

The catching numbers further broken down

Kendall – 346.1 innings – 61 SB attempts = 1.59 attempts per 9 innings

Olivo – 262.0 innings – 24 SB attempts = 0.82 attempts per 9 innings

Buck – 271.1 innings – 27 SB attempts = 0.90 attempts per 9 innings

So despite Buck’s noodle arm, runners go much more often against Kendall. It also always struck me as odd how despite the CS ratio difference between Buck/Olivo, their attempts against were always in the same ballpark.

Unless I'm wrong...
My Twitter feed

by Top Ramen on May 21, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

right

and that’d be about 1.17 successful steals per 9 innings for Kendall.

Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau

by aHorseWithNoName on May 21, 2010 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

I've noticed this watching the games.

It feels like I’m watching 80’s baseball with Kendall back there.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.

by Warden11 on May 22, 2010 12:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Reincarnated my catcher defense spreadsheet for 2010

I know that it was

universally

appreciated

Without getting into every detail, here are the number I have so far for 2010. Remember, these are crude, don’t (can’t) take pitchers into account, it’s a small sample. Etc. It takes into account stolen bases/caught stealing (excluding pitcher pickoffs, wild pitches and passed balls, throwing errors, and fielding errors, and is based on runs above/below average.There are 78 catcher in the current rankings. I’ve rounded it to one decimal place, although it really isn’t even that precise.

Overall:

  1. Yaider Molina, +5.3 runs
  2. Miguel Olivo: 2.5 runs (4.4 steals, already =1.3 pitch blocking, a bit below on errors)
  3. Jason Kendall: -0.1 runs. What a master.
  4. John Buck: -2.9 runs, avoids errors, but yeah, he gets run on. But notice that it’s a 3 run difference between Kendall and Buck… and the offense difference is about 10 runs so far in Buck’s favor.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on May 21, 2010 5:08 PM EDT reply actions  

Hmmmm

Stupid SBNation formatting

That’s Tiadier Molina number 1 overall

Miguel Olivo number SIX overall (that won’t last)

Jason Kendall number forty-one overall

and John Buck Number seventy-four overall

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on May 21, 2010 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

Wait

Is it Yaider or Tiadier? Just when you think you’ve got all the Molinas memorized, they go and spawn a new one down at the cloning plant.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on May 21, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

argh -- YADIER

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on May 21, 2010 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

Tormenting you about typos

has become my new favorite hobby. It’s all in good fun, though. Great info, as always…even if it’s about a new Mystery Molina.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on May 21, 2010 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions  

Still haven't figured out the run adjustment for

LEADERSHIP and MENTORING, though…have you?

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on May 21, 2010 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

I thought Olivo's name

Was “Miggy”.

"Shot by my own men."

by StonewallPDS on May 21, 2010 6:10 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

How is he in the community?

Didn’t he adopt like 11 unfortunate kids from his neighborhood?

"A life is not important except in the impact it has on other lives."
Jackie Robinson

Follow me with the Rays grounds crew at-
twitter.com/TripleCrown59

by walkoff59 on May 21, 2010 6:58 PM EDT reply actions  

I heard that Joe Mauer guy is pretty good

But he doesn’t catch every day. I can only assume Minnesota didn’t get the memo that catchers should and much catch 150+ games, or that Kendall is just much better than him.

by scobes on May 21, 2010 7:21 PM EDT reply actions  

wanna drive a Minnesota fan nuts?

Through age 26:

Player A: .327/.408/.483

Player B: .314/.402/.458

Player A is Joe Mauer.

Player B?

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on May 21, 2010 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions  

Pfft.

That guy is never on the field (though age 26). I mean he only played 78 games in his age-25 season.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on May 21, 2010 9:00 PM EDT up reply actions  

He'll get injured playing catcher all time time...

and he’ll always be on the IR. You’ll never see him catch in a game past age 28 or 29

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on May 21, 2010 9:01 PM EDT up reply actions  

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