Royals Starting Pitching Swing and Miss Rates
by Jeff Zimmerman on May 27, 2010 12:43 AM EDT
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I decided to look at the swing and miss rates for the Royals starters since it is around the quarter point of the season. There has been some attention to the value of swing and miss rates, but I mainly just love seeing which pitches cause the big old whiff. Here is how the starters are doing so far in 2010 (league average has been around 19%):
| Name | Number of Swing and Misses | Total Swings | pitch_type | % of Swings That Miss |
| Meche Gil | 8 | 33 | CH | 24% |
| Meche Gil | 7 | 61 | CU | 11% |
| Meche Gil | 1 | 17 | FC | 6% |
| Meche Gil | 13 | 158 | FF | 8% |
| Meche Gil | 5 | 42 | SL | 12% |
| 34 | 311 | Total = | 11% | |
| Greinke Zack | 7 | 47 | CH | 15% |
| Greinke Zack | 3 | 32 | CU | 9% |
| Greinke Zack | 15 | 152 | FF | 10% |
| Greinke Zack | 15 | 59 | SL | 25% |
| 40 | 290 | Total = | 14% | |
| Davies Kyle | 21 | 62 | CH | 34% |
| Davies Kyle | 4 | 26 | CU | 15% |
| Davies Kyle | 12 | 42 | FC | 29% |
| Davies Kyle | 10 | 128 | FF | 8% |
| Davies Kyle | 3 | 23 | SL | 13% |
| 50 | 281 | Total = | 18% | |
| Bannister Brian | 16 | 62 | CH | 26% |
| Bannister Brian | 10 | 27 | CU | 37% |
| Bannister Brian | 12 | 80 | FC | 15% |
| Bannister Brian | 21 | 151 | FF | 14% |
| Bannister Brian | 1 | 4 | SL | 25% |
| 60 | 324 | Total = | 19% | |
| Hochevar Luke | 4 | 24 | CH | 17% |
| Hochevar Luke | 5 | 27 | CU | 19% |
| Hochevar Luke | 16 | 56 | FC | 29% |
| Hochevar Luke | 13 | 112 | FF | 12% |
| Hochevar Luke | 4 | 13 | FS | 31% |
| Hochevar Luke | 11 | 90 | SI | 12% |
| Hochevar Luke | 16 | 46 | SL | 35% |
| 69 | 368 | Total = | 19% |
Here are the codes for the various pitch types:
FA Fastball
FF 4-seam Fastball
FT 2-seam Fastball
FC Cut Fastball
FS Split-finger Fastball
SI Sinker
SL Slider
CU Curveball
CH Change-up
Here is how they did from 2007 to 2009:
| Name | Pitch type | % Miss |
| Brian Bannister | FF | 11% |
| Brian Bannister | CU | 22% |
| Brian Bannister | CH | 23% |
| Brian Bannister | FC | 10% |
| Brian Bannister | SL | 13% |
| Brian Bannister | FA | 12% |
| Gil Meche | FC | 18% |
| Gil Meche | SL | 16% |
| Gil Meche | CH | 31% |
| Gil Meche | FF | 13% |
| Gil Meche | CU | 23% |
| Gil Meche | FA | 15% |
| Kyle Davies | CU | 26% |
| Kyle Davies | SL | 30% |
| Kyle Davies | FF | 10% |
| Kyle Davies | CH | 29% |
| Kyle Davies | FA | 12% |
| Luke Hochever | CH | 17% |
| Luke Hochever | SI | 14% |
| Luke Hochever | CU | 22% |
| Luke Hochever | FF | 11% |
| Luke Hochever | SL | 33% |
| Luke Hochever | FA | 9% |
| Zack Greinke | CH | 28% |
| Zack Greinke | CU | 27% |
| Zack Greinke | SL | 40% |
| Zack Greinke | FF | 11% |
| Zack Greinke | FA | 15% |
I don't have too much analysis, except that Greinke's slider went from one of the hardest pitches to hit last season in all of baseball, to below average this season.
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his k rate is down big time
just looking at fangraphs and from watching his starts, his fastball is definitely not the same pitch it was last year – missing some velocity. with that, his slider hasn’t been nearly as good, and he has not had nearly the same command of it either. makes me wonder if his arm is just a bit hung over from the large number of innings he piled up last year… either that, or he actively tried to change what type of pitcher he is in anticipation of the league changing their approach
by slayor on May 25, 2010 4:14 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Who is this Miss Rates and why no pic?
Jamie Bluma was on 810 this morning and said that word has gotten around the league that his slider is not in the strike zone. So hitters are laying off it this year as opposed to swinging and missing. He also said that Zack looked to have gotten lazy/picked up a bad habit on mechanics and was not driving his shoulder.
None the less, I don’t think we need to start freaking out. He’s pitched really well so far, save a game or two.
Don't Stop Believing!
by KC Chris on May 25, 2010 9:51 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
They said the same thing after the last game...
and I had also read that somewhere else. So, I think the slider thing may be true.
"I DARE you to make less sense."
no royal starter has missed a start this season
and we haven’t had that many off-days or rain outs
I’d love to see greinke miss a turn
Even if this turns out to be a down year for Zack, I don't think that means we should freak out
Even great players have down years. And I don’t think this year is or will be a genuinely bad one. Just not an amazing 2009-like season. And, of course, the remaining 2/3 of the season could well be considerably better than first 1/3 of the season.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 25, 2010 9:49 AM EDT up reply actions
I think
it’s just the regression he was due for. Instead of the 2009 Greinke, we will get the 2008 Greinke. A good Greinke, but nowhere near last seasons.
Yeah, we all knew there would be some regression
Really hoped not, but there’s no way to keep last season going. I was just hoping he’d still be considerably better than his 07-08, but it seems like he’s sort of in the middle. I don’t have the stats pulled up, but just from listening it seems like batters are letting the slider go and waiting for a fastball, curve, or changeup to rip. They’ve learned not to swing at that slider, so that affects his stats.
"You'll never make it to the bigs with fungus on your shower shoes."
by MinnesotaRoyal on May 25, 2010 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
He needs to throw more strikes
Might be an obvious argument but players will start swinging more at his slider if he can get a better Strike/Ball ratio. As nasty of a pitch it is, no one is gonna bite on it unless they are trying to protect against a pitchers count. It would be interesting to see how many of these pitches were in the vacinity of the strike zone and how many were balls to chase.
How about Sorias?
Soria totals are just too small, I will probably do some relievers near the All-Star Game
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on May 25, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
And if he had an even remotely competent shortstop
He gets through 4 with only 2-3 runs given up…and we’re still worried about a pitcher with a sub 3 ERA.
This makes me really marvel at just how good he was last season, that as a very good pitcher this year he just looks like he’s lost so much.
Good stuff as always, Jeff
One question: if Greinke’s slider is still at 25% (down a lot from 40% in the previous years), and if league average is 19%, his slider is still above average, right?
The even bigger drops in his change and curve would also cause concern, as those would be the secondary pitches he would throw mostly to left-handed hitters.
interesting
in 2008, he actually had practicallyl no xFIP platoon split, and his FIP was much better vs. LHP. In 2009, he dominated lefties. In 2010, while his xFIP is still pretty even, LHH are getting the better of him, and his 2010 FIP split is fairly big (for Greinke).
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by Matt Klaassen on May 25, 2010 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, sorry I was looking at his overall numbers.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on May 25, 2010 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions
This is great stuff Jeff
thanks
- .... .- - .----. ... / .-- .... .- - / ... .... . / ... .- .. -..
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on May 25, 2010 2:55 PM EDT reply actions
It looks like
Greinke is making a concerted effort to incorporate his change up more and his slider less than in past seasons – probably in response to the hitters simply taking his slider regardless of the situation.
Small sample caveats aside – it appears that all the work Zack put in on his changeup are still a work in progess, as he has a smaller swing and miss % on changeups than everybody else on the staff. (Assume this translates to actual batted ball results as well?)
Bottom line – this season is a lost cause anyway – I don’t mind Greinke using it to improve his arsenal, because I think he will eventually perfect the changeup and thus become a more effective pitcher going forward.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
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