Aaaaand it's that time again--Looking to 2011
by kcdc1 on May 6, 2010 1:18 AM EDT
Email
PrintWell, this team sucks, it's weirdly really old and unexciting, and even Greinke isn't as fun to watch because the team refuses to give him any help. In short, it's clear even at the start of May that this season is every bit as lost as we thought it would be. So instead of banging our heads against the wall about management continuing to defy common sense again and again, let's take a chance to talk about how 2011 looks like it might shake out.
The way I see it, that "wave of talent" that management has been promising us for years is due to begin arriving at the start of next season. Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer look like absolute studs once again. Montgomery has laughed his way through High-A and looks to begin dominating AA this week. Derrick Robinson has been considered a potential gold glove caliber defender in center field for years, and looks like he might have finally turned a corner with the bat. Ka'aiahue has been killing the ball like it's 2008. Giavotella has been hitting well, and Crow and Arguelles are expected to spend short time in the minor leagues. Even Osuna has pitched well after lackluster performance in previous years, and has been described by the coaching staff as a left-handed Soria. (Although it's worth noting that they did offer him back to the Braves for $25,000 following that description.) All of these players have a shot to be on the opening day 2011 roster.
On top of this likely talent infusion, a LOT of money should be coming off the books that could be reinvested to improve the team. Guillen, Farnsworth, Cruz, Podsednik, Ankiel, and Bloomquist's contracts all expire at the end of this season. Depending how the OF prospects play this year, (Robinson, Moustakas and Gordon defensively) DeJesus's option may also be declined, freeing up additional money. I haven't run the numbers, but that sounds like about $23M freed up. I believe Meche also enters the final year of his contract, freeing up $12M more starting in 2012 that could be used for multi-year contracts. Some of that will go to paying our current players more (I'd imagine Greinke, Soria and DeJesus and arb-eligible players will be due for signficant raises) but payroll was down this year already, and you have to figure DM will be handed at least $15-20M to improve the MLB roster if they feel that it's time to make a push.
So with that, let's look at what our dream 2011 roster would look like and how it might fare.
Without FA's:
1B/DH Butler and Ka'aihue
2B Getz
SS Aviles
3B Callaspo
RF Moustakas
CF Robinson
LF Gordon
C Kendall
BN Giavotella, Maier, Pena
SP's Greinke, Montgomery, Bannister, Hochevar, Crow?
RP's Soria, Arguelles, Wood, Osuna?
That roster looks pretty solid assuming all of those prospects play reasonably close to their expectations, but they won't, and we have $20M to spend to bolster the team anyway. Where we spend that depends how the rest of the year plays out, but the first spot I'd look to improve would be catcher. If there isn't a good match at catcher (or if you really insist on keeping Kendall), I'd look for a good fit in the OF or at SS. It would also make a world of difference if we could add just one reliable bullpen arm to complement Soria and a talented, but inexperienced unit.
What do we think? Could this team contend next year?
147 comments
|
1 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I say yes
Start printing the fliers for the plaza parade now.
Gordon still in AAA?
Seems like he’d be the preference over Kila, especially b/c he can fill in at 3B (and maybe LF/RF).
by SagehenMacGyver47 on May 4, 2010 3:08 PM EDT reply actions
whoops, forgot to throw Gordon in there
By the time this offseason rolls around, if Robinson, Moustakas and Gordon all look like they’ll be capable infielders in 2011, I might decline DeJesus’s option. Alternatively, if Moustakas is kept at 3B instead, I think you keep DeJesus and look to trade Callaspo.
I started writing about why some of these guys shouldn't/won't be up
then realized that wasn’t the point. I think they could be decent IF they adjusted quickly. IF we assume they play even remotely close to what they’re doing at their individual levels this year, then it could be competitive in the Central. That being said, I would be more optimistic about 2012 than 2011 because of the additional development time.
Contend next year with a roster filled with guys in AA this year
Although our farm system gives me hope for the future and although I want us to start playing younger guys to see what we’ve got … this would be one of the youngest teams in the Majors, maybe the yongest team of the last several years. It’s a huge jump from AA to MLB, and if we really decided to go with a full-fledged youth movement like this, I think 2011 could be pretty ugly in the standings.
Of course, I’d much prefer young, developing and ugly to the current old, gritty and ugly.
"I think a tactical error might have been committed by the manager of the Royals"
The changes between the proposed 2011 lineup and our current lineup are:
Kila replaces Guillen at DH (improvement)
Gordon replaces DeJesus in LF (question mark—likely small step down)
Robinson replaces Ankiel in CF (if Robinson sucks, Maier steps in, so this will either be an improvement or a wash)
Moustakas replaces the Podfather (improvement)
Montgomery and Crow replace Meche and Davies (big improvements)
Even if these rookies play like rookies, the players they’re replacing are bad enough that rookies with potential would be substantial improvements from day 1. The current team construction should net around 70-75 wins. The young guys can only help. Throw in $20M of free agent value and a couple of the young guys being surprisingly successful in their rookie years, and I think you might have something exciting.
Meche is under contract for $12 million in 2011
That contract is not going away anytime soon.
Yeah, but if his arm is toast
he’s not going to be in the rotation.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
Which is why I said the contract is not going away anytime soon
There is no savings from Meche’s contract even if he does not pitch for the Royals.
I guess I just don't see
any mention of Meche’s contract in the message you were replying to. It just suggests that Montgomery or Crow will replace him the rotation next year.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
the free agent money
the team does not come close to $20 million to spend without losing Meche’s contract.
And that is ignoring the separate issue in that with the amount of money owed to Meche, like Guillen, the Royals are going to keep playing him as long as he is physically able to do so.
FA money- 6 players and 25.5 million saved
Guillen 12m, Farns 4.5 m, Cruz 3m, Pods, Ankiel and Bloom 6m equals 25.5 million
You forgot the raises everyone else gets, which eat up most of that $25.5 million
Greinke ($6+ million), Soria ($1 m), Betancourt ($1 m), and Kendall ($1.5 m) are already under contract for raises, and with the Cruz buyout ($500K), the first $10 million is gone. Pods, Ankiel, and Farnsworth get buyouts too, so there goes another $1.1 million. DDJ gets a $1.3 million raise if his option is renewed as expected (or a $500K buyout). Raises in arbitration for Butler, Callaspo, Hochevar, and Bannister will take care of another $10 million or so.
There is no way the team has $20 million to spend on free agents.
His contract will be on the 2011 books
but it’s relevant for FA signings since any good FA we’d pick up would be paid in 2012 and beyond. Since almost all contracts are somewhat backloaded, it will be an important consideration as the Royals expore the FA market this offseason.
the free agent still has to be paid in 2011
he is not going to agree to defer 95% of his salary
Right, but management has to budget multiple years into the future
If they didn’t have Meche’s contract coming off the books after 2011, they would have to choose between multi-year FA additions or having the money to hold onto Greinke/Soria. The Meche money gives them more flexibility.
it does not really help 2011
Right now, the Royals are only going to have about the same $8 million or so to spend on free agents for 2011 as 2010. There is no way they are going to get your “$20M of free agent value” for 2011 with only $8 million down.
Where do you get this $8M figure?
RoyalsRetro ran the numbers—the 2011 payroll is projected to be near $60M if we add no FA’s. With a new, taxpayer-funded ballpark and a fan-friendly rookie-laden team to boost ticket sales and TV revenue, it would be a shame if payroll was any lower than $75M to start 2011, especially if the team looks like it could keep pace in the AL Central.
The real world
Retro’s list was of an incomplete roster and, as he acknowledged, he took the low estimates on the arbitration figures, which will not all happen. A major league roster is 25 players, plus a team will end up using more than just 25 guys during the year. The Royals have already used 31 or 32 players so far this year, and last year’s team used 41 players. The team has to pay guys on the DL, their replacements, and at least portions (if not all) of the salaries of the guys who get released or sent back to the minors. Adding this up, you get another $5-$6 million in salaries to the $60 million Retro found. The team’s payroll this year is in the $70-$74 million range (including everybody, not just the current 25-man roster), and there is no real reason to expect an increase in revenue — the economy is bad, attendance is down so far this year, and the broadcast revenue will not go up until the next contracts.
With salary commitments around $65-$66, and payroll around $70-$74 million, that leaves about $8 million for free agents (or about the same that was available this offseason).
That should be enough to resign Kyle Farnsworth and Jose Guillen
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on May 5, 2010 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
Also reality
Retro’s list was 60M for 23 players. Compared to our opening day payroll of 70M this year, I think payroll should go up to at least 75M next year. The economy will have bounced back, the new, lucrative ballpark is taxpayer funded, and the team will draw more fan interest and ticket sales. Also, I suspect that Glass has been holding back on the cash because he didn’t think an extra 5 million would make the Royals competitive. Remember, in the last few years, the Royals tried to sign Kuroda and Hudson, which would have placed them well over the 70M threshold we’re looking at right now. The revenue is there to add payroll.
If you spend that 15M on 2 players, you’ve got a 25 man opening day payroll of $75M. Yes, there will be a couple M more that we’ll have to pay some depth guys at AAA which places our base closer to 62-64M, but if we include that, then we’re looking at 74M this year, which, adding the 5M that I think we should expect, puts us at 79M.
Drawing more interest and ticket sales?
Being there on the 1st Sunday of the year against the Red Sox showed that wasn’t happening this year.
I’ve been to four games up to this point and none have been close to full.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball. I’ll tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring.
Not this year, next year
The team this year is hopeless, old and boring. The only draw is Greinke. If you bring up a couple hyped-up rookies and add a marquee free agent, more fans will come out.
Maybe the same unicorns and fairies
that will magically turn Moustakas, Robinson, and the rest of the AA players into good major league players in less than a year can also convince the other 10-12 players the Royals will use next year to play for free, and then help the marketing department find a way to increase attendance by 15%.
by Gopherballs on May 5, 2010 1:19 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Unnecessary sarcasm
This post was about best-case scenario. It wasn’t supposed to predict what WILL happen.
In reality, the Royals really do have 15M to spend if they should choose to, and they really do have some prospects who will likely be ready to contribute next year. It’s unlikely that they’ll be stars right away, but it seems reasonable to expect that Moustakas and Crow will be at least 1 WAR players next year, with upside to be much better. Add in 15M of free agents, improvement from our 28 and younger crowd, and we likely have a .500 team with a little upside.
There is no way the Royals have $15 million to spend
at least without wishcasting that the arbitration-eligible players will collectively get millions less than what they should, that the Royals will only pay salaries on a total of 25 players next year, and that the team finds an extra $5-$10 million to spend under the seat cushions.
FWIW, my payroll breakdowns for 2010 and 2011 (est.) is posted
My 2011 est. payroll is $72M (including exercising DeJesus’s option, but none of the otheres). That covers 21 players (including Crow and Arguelles, as they have major league contracts).
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 5, 2010 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Realistic?
Doubt we’ll come to an agreement, but let’s try a more realistic projection instead of the one I’d laid out in the original post as an admitted fantasy.
First, let’s clear up the ‘25-man payroll’ vs ‘course of the season payroll’ issue. We need to make an apples-to-apples comparison. I agree that the latter is the more important consideration for the budget since it incorporates more of the actual costs, but we have better numbers for the opening day payrolls, so let’s assume the additional costs (depth, call-ups, etc) are going to be roughly constant year-to-year, and simply use opening day payrolls as our basis for comparison.
This year’s opening day payroll was a touch over 70M, down slightly from last year’s nearly 71M. If memory serves, the Royals offered about 5M to Hudson which would have pushed the 2009 opening day payroll to 75M-ish. This seems like pretty solid evidence that if ownership is on-board with the team’s chances, they will sign off on opening-day 25-man roster payroll exceeding 75M. They’ve shown us that the revenue is there.
With no FA’s added, the Royals can field a roster of 23 players that will likely cost slightly over 60M depending on arb results.
So if you say payroll cannot exceed 71M next year, they have roughly 7-12M to spend. If you think payroll will increase (we don’t know, but I think it’s likely), then they have more than that. An opening day payroll of 80M might be unrealistic, but I think our expectation should in the neighborhood of 75M. If ownership has a choice to field a competitive team while still maintaining a profit, it would be highly disappointing to see them choose not to.
I’ve never been one to fantasize about impossible trades or FA acquisitions. I just see an opening day payroll of 75M as entirely realistic since they’ve previously shown us that they have the resources to support it. With a payroll of 75M, they have ~15M to spend this offseason.
Two more considerations—I’ve mentioned the Meche factor allowing backloading of FA contracts. It’s pretty typical to see a FA earn more in the later years of his contract. A contract that pays 10M in its first year will often average 12M over its full length. Secondly, if Moustakas looks like he’ll be ready to step in at 3B next year, you should trade Callaspo this offseason. With Gordon manning one corner outfield spot and Maier/Robinson in center, this leaves you an extra 2-3M to sign an impact bat in the other corner outfield position. Now for an opening day payroll projection that could happen if management chose to play their cards as such.
Using Retro’s post:
1B Butler – arbitration ($4-6 million)
1B Kaaihue $400
2B Getz $500
SS Aviles $500
3B Moustakas $400
RF Free Agent $15,000 in 2011
CF Maier $500
LF Gordon – arbitration ($2-3 million)
C Kendall – $3,750
BN Robinson ($400), Pena ($500), Betancourt ($4,000 of which Seattle pays $1,000)
SP’s Greinke ($13,500), Bannister ($4-5 million), Hochevar ($2-4 million), Crow ($1,000), Meche ($12,000)
RP’s Soria ($4,000), Arguelles ($1,200), Wood ($400), Osuna ($400), Hughes ($500), 3 RP’s from Royals system (3 x $400 = $1,500)
Buyouts – Cruz, Farnsy, DeJesus, Ankiel (all $500k). Podsednik ($100)
=$73,750 to $79,750 low to high end depending on arb figures
Is this the best way to spend resources? Maybe not, but management will have the option of fielding this team next year for about $76M. On the surface, it looks like a team that would have a shot in the AL Central.
Are you saying $15M for a free agent?
Have you seen my fanpost on the payoll? Do you disagree with my numbers? Even if the payroll commitments with arb. estimates is only $70M, that leaves very little room for FA’s. Certainly no where near $15M.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 5, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Ignore
Just saw your post in the payroll thread.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 5, 2010 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Glass: Dayton, you idiot, you’ve spend so much money on Mike Lowell that there’s no money left to pay the guys in AAA and AA.
Dayton: I’ve got a plan!
Glass: Good, because even minor league players won’t player for free.
Dayton: Doh!
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on May 5, 2010 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
Robinson, Moose and Gio
All probably start 2011 in the minors. It would take a pretty big year for any of them to skip AAA and begin next year immediately in the big leagues. They’re all fairly young, so I don’t see the rush. More likely you see the Royals sign some nominal vet as a placeholder until those guys are ready.
That’s probably a pretty lousy team for 2011, but the hope is that those rookies start to mesh with some of the other young players, and you start to see some real development and maybe by 2012 or 2013 the team is ready to compete.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Well, yes to an extent
I agree completely on Gio. Although he was drafted as an advanced college bat, he’s pretty unlikely to start 2011 on the MLB roster. I think Robinson and Moose might be different stories tho. The club has been very high on Robinson for a long time, often citing him as one of their top prospects in interviews, leaving the rest of us scratching our heads. If he hits .290 this year, walks as much as he strikes out, and steals 60 bases (all of which he COULD do assuming his start is for real-ish), he’ll be just a strong ST away from forcing the club’s hand. Moustakas has also been climbing the minor league ladder somewhat slower than expected for a top pick, so given his insane start to the year, it would be unsurprising to see him spend some time in AAA this year and be primed for a quick move to the MLB club in 2011.
I can see Robinson cracking the roster in 2011
But I think they will ease him in as a 4th OF/pinch runner, not a full-time starter. They’ll definitely bring in a vet/retain Pods to “compete for a job.”
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Since Aviles and Kila have starting spots
I assume this scenario includes Dayton Moore having been fired in the off-season, which be the most positive development imaginable.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
I know
I’ve tempted to believe DM’s recent quotes about looking at Kila as the team’s primary 1B/DH complement with Butler, but then I remember, he has slider bat-speed.
Still, if Kila OPS’s .900+ this year (he will) in AAA, it would be beyond stupid to waste money on signing an established DH when you could get infinitely better return on investment by putting that money into a catcher, outfielder or shortstop. I continue to expect common sense to eventually prevail, even after being proven wrong time and again.
You're not high on Lough?
I would expect him to fill an OF position next year. Most of the AA guys will not be ready.
I would go with this
Lough plays good defense out there, from what I hear, and while his bat isn’t always great for a corner outfielder (which is what I think he’ll end up being even though he’s played lots of CF), I think he could at least be a bench player.
by MinnesotaRoyal on May 4, 2010 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Gordon is likely to lock down one of the corner outfield spots
Leaving the other to one of Lough, DeJesus, Moustakas, Callaspo or a FA. This ‘2011 could be exciting thread’ only works if we assume Moustakas continues mashing his way onto the 2011 team, so we’ve got to put Moustakas either in RF or at 3B. If we pencil in Moustakas at 3B, trading Callaspo and declining DeJesus’s option makes room for Lough in the starting outfield. It could happen. Also, if Maier is the starting CF, that opens up a bench spot for Lough as the 4th outfielder.
At present, I don’t see Lough as good enough to start on a playoff team, so I’d prefer to see Moustakas, Callaspo, Robinson and Maier force him back to Omaha, but he’d be a nice piece if any one of them is out of the MLB picture to start the year. He looks more MLB-ready, but with less upside.
At present, I don’t see Lough as good enough to start on a playoff team
Luckily we don’t have a playoff team.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
2012
That will be the year the Royals go to the World Series. Mark it down. I have a tremendous track record here.
I moved away from Georgia in 1990. In 1991 the Braves went to the World Series.
I moved away from Florida in 2007. In 2008 the Rays went to the World Series.
I’ll be moving away from here in 2011. In 2012 … you get the picture.
And conveniently, the world will end that December, which is a fitting worldwide reaction.
The significant problems we have cannot be solved at the same level of thinking with which we created them. -- Albert Einstein
by The Ol' Perfesser on May 4, 2010 3:57 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Isn't that when the world is supposed to end?
The Kansas City Royals; Successfully failing since 1986
not until December, so we're good.
She said "are you stupid or just apathetic?"
I said "I don't know and I don't care"
by Royal Kingdom on May 4, 2010 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Got that covered
see the last sentence.
The significant problems we have cannot be solved at the same level of thinking with which we created them. -- Albert Einstein
by The Ol' Perfesser on May 4, 2010 5:43 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't think any of those prospects will be ready in 2011
Maybe for a cup of coffe, but likely nothing more. That is unless Moore gets panicky and rushes one or more of them to the majors. But I don’t think they’ll be ready.
Some might be ready in 2012, but it is rare for even players that eventually become very good to be good in their rookie season.
So we might have some hope for these guys to make a real impact in 2013. But unless the Royals have a new GM who can put talented players around them, this team has no hope, period.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2010 4:03 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Beat me to it
Even if you ignore the unrealistic promotion timetables, it is not reasonable to expect the prospects to immediately contribute at the major league level. Billy Butler is the one developmental success story in the Moore era, and it took Butler until his third year in the majors to establish himself. Gordon (who put up wacky numbers for a whole year at AA, not just three weeks) and Hochevar are still waiting to do so. Even going back to Greinke, he followed up his promising rookie year with a terrible second year (and that was before his leave of absence).
By 2013, Greinke and Soria are already free agents, so much of the new wave will simply be replacing the current good players.
by Gopherballs on May 4, 2010 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Great post
Not to mention half these guys will bust. And I don’t say that as a pessimistic Royals fan, that’s just a fact of life – most teams have a large percentage of their prospects bust.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
It would be a massive triumph if only half of them bust
Prospects fail. Success is the exception to the rule.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Above are reasons why you forget the present
and buy some more elite prospects to fill in around your current crop of AA and high A guys using your deep pockets of currency (Greinke and Soria).
She said "are you stupid or just apathetic?"
I said "I don't know and I don't care"
by Royal Kingdom on May 4, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Yup
It’s hard to say that the Royals should trade Greinke, Soria, Bannister, Meche, DeJesus and more, but that’s what the Royals should do. They aren’t close.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2010 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you could make a good argument for Moose
Maybe Crow and Montgomery as well, but I might go with midseason call-ups for one or both of them unless they both really lock down AA.
Arguelles, Robinson, Giavotella, and to a lesser extent Osuna will take more time. Arguelles isn’t even in a league yet.
I agree, though, that 2011 is not optimistic at all. I can see 2012, but for some of them to really contribute it may be 2013.
by MinnesotaRoyal on May 4, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions
At the very least, Kila will be 'ready'
Crow and Arguelles have MLB contracts and are very likely to be MLB contributors in 2011. Pitchers don’t do that badly as rookies, and only have to do better than Meche and/or Davies to be improvements.
Montgomery won’t likely be ready to start 2011, but will hopefully join the rotation early in the year. He will hopefully have a year of dominating AA and maybe some late-season AAA under his belt.
As for Moustakas, Robinson, and Giatovella, yes, they’re unlikely to be awesome in 2011, but they don’t have to be for the team to be good. Remember, the team will have the resources to add quality free agents this offseason.
Remember, the team will have the resources to add quality free agents this offseason.
We all know that is very different from actually adding quality free agents, but I get your point. I just suspend belief until GMDM actually has a good overall offseason.
by MinnesotaRoyal on May 4, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions
GMDM did have a good offseason
…in 2006:
Traded Burgos for Bannister, got Soria in the Rule 5, and signed Octavio Dotel and Gil Meche. That’s actually not a bad offseason.
He also made a series of moves that weren’t particularly good, but also weren’t too significant: bought LaRue’s contract, Sisco for Gload, Keppinger for Haltiwanger, and Cordier for TPJ. (I certainly don’t “like” those moves, but still, we needed a C and SS and he got both very nearly for free, so what can you honestly expect. Gload was the fly in the ointment, I suppose).
Still, in 2006, I was not alone in thinking this guy might know what he’s doing.
What quality free agents have we ever signed?
Even if we offer top dollar, that is no guarantee that players will want to come here.
Also, I don’t think we’ll have $20 million to play with next year. I thought someone did the rundown and when you factor in the significant raises due to Soria and Greinke, we have like $5-6 million to play with, if we keep payroll the same as we had this year.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
And then there’s the chance that the Royals pick up the options on guys like Ankiel and Podsednik. It could happen. And that could use up ALL of the FA money right there.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2010 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions
There will be about the same amount of money available next year as was available this year
Raises for Greinke ($6+ million), Butler (first year arb), and Hochevar (second year arb) take care of the $12 million savings from Guillen’s expiring contract. Raises to Soria ($1 m), Betancourt ($1 m), Kendall ($1.5 m), and the Cruz buyout ($500K) take care of the $4 million Farnsworth savings. Meche makes the same next year. Callaspo’s raise (first year arb) takes care of the $1.7 million Bloomquist savings and then some. The team then owes raises to whatever collection of Gordon (second year arb), DDJ ($1.3 million raise or $500K option buyout), Davies (third year arb), and Bannister (third year arb) return.
Greinke will get a $6M boost
Soria a $1M boost
Guillen+Farsnworth+Cruz+Bloomquist+Ankiel+Pods+DeJesus get paid 12+4.5+3.25+1.7+2.75+1.75+5.5= $31.45M.
Even assuming generous arb boosts, the team has a lot of money to throw at free agents this offseason. If Glass believes the team might contend, that number will go up.
I plan on doing a post soon breaking down the payroll, including 2011 numbers with arb. estimates. That should give us a better idea of what kind of money the Royals will have to work with. But I think you need to prepare yourself for the number to be relatively small.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2010 4:23 PM EDT up reply actions
That'll help clear things up
Meche’s $12M also comes of the books in 2012 which will be a significant factor for any big FA signing since good FA’s get multiple year contracts.
Thumbnail sketch
(in thousands)
1B Butler – arbitration ($4-6 million)
1B Kaaihue $400
2B Getz $500
SS Aviles $500
3B Callaspo – arbitration ($2-3 million)
RF Moustakas $400
CF Robinson $400
LF Gordon – arbitration ($2-3 million)
C Kendall – $3,750
BN Giavotella ($400), Maier ($500), Pena ($500), Betancourt ($4,000 of which Seattle pays $1,000)
SP’s Greinke ($13,500), Montgomery ($400), Bannister ($4-5 million), Hochevar ($2-4 million), Crow ($1,000), Meche ($12,000)
RP’s Soria ($4,000), Arguelles ($1,200), Wood ($400), Osuna ($400)
Buyouts – Cruz, Farnsy, DeJesus, Ankiel (all $500k). Podsednik ($100)
=$59,350
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
To be clear
I chose the smaller number in all the arbitration estimates.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
plus a $1 million for the two other roster spots
(actually it is more than that, because call ups to replace guys on the DL get at least the minimum for their time in the majors).
And here are 2011 free agents
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/09/2011-mlb-free-agents.html
I don’t know what impact free agents we would target .
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I'm going to guess
Craig Counsell
Mike Lowell
Jose Contreras
Proven track records. Full of competitivenessity.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2010 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Lowell is going to happen
The only hope is that Sabean outbids Moore.
Don't count out the Astros
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on May 4, 2010 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Pedro Felix won't be 35 forever
and there’s a chance he may never have a .300 wOBA again
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on May 4, 2010 5:02 PM EDT up reply actions
In wich case, the Royals would just sign Feliz instead.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Naw
The Astros are going to go all Carlos Lee over Jorge Cantu.
And he's in the 18-11 portion of 2010 right now
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on May 4, 2010 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Jose Reyes?
Carl Crawford, Jason Kubel? Matt Thornton?
I don’t follow other teams closely at all, but they all seem like they’d be good additions for the right price.
Not likely to want to come here
We have trouble attracting the Rick Ankiels of the world to come here.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Players go where they get paid
And like I’ve been trying to say, adding guys like Reyes or Crawford to the 2011 roster would make the Royals a much more viable team.
I think we are the exception
Players have been offered more money by us only to turn us down. Ivan Rodriguez, Orlando Hudson, etc. And those guys didn’t even have many suitors. Guys like Jose Reyes, Jason Kubel, Carl Crawford are all going to have many suitors. There is zero reason for them to come to KC unless we offer a ridiculous amount of money more than anyone else, and we cannot afford to do that, nor should we.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Hmm...
I hope not other teams hear about Reyes and Crawford, if they fly under the radar, the Royals might totally be in!
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on May 4, 2010 9:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't really get this
Why, exactly, do we think that the Royals can’t outbid other teams for the top FA’s next year? Do we not think that the Royals could sustain an $80M payroll in a year that they’d be in a playoff chase?
When have we ever outbid other teams for top FAs?
When has any small market franchise?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Meche, to an extent
He wasn’t a top FA, but he was certainly an attractive FA that other teams were interested in.
The Twins ponied up and paid market value for Mauer.
Typically, small market teams don’t have the money to drop $15+ million per year on a FA. The Royals haven’t….ever, but this offseason, they would seem to have the option. Better to spend the money on one good player than 5 crappy players. (Yes, I know our organization much prefers the five crappy player option.)
Meche's only real suitors
Were the Cubs and Jays.
Mauer was never a free agent.
I don’t even think its wise for a small market team to invest that kind of money in a player. If Crawford fizzles, you’ve hamstrung your club for years.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Crawford is going to get
$20M+/season, at least, at worst, $15M
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on May 5, 2010 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions
I say sign Crawford
Shift Moose to 3B, trade Callaspo for SS/C prospects, and sign the youngest, best bullpen arm you can find/afford.
Batting order:
Crawford LF
Gordon RF
Butler 1B
Ka’aihue DH
Moustakas 3B
Aviles SS
Getz 2B
Kendall C
Robinson CF
Not terrible offensively, average defensive infield, and a great defensive outfield. You’d want to alternate L/R in the batting order, which I clearly didn’t.
Crawford is a pipe-dream
Its likely going to take $14-18 million per for 5-6 years to sign Crawford. And the Yanks have a definite need for him, so you need to not only outbid them, but outbid them by a lot because NY is such an attractive place to play. Not to mention all the other teams that will be after him. No way the Royals plunk down that kind of change for a player.
DeJesus is honestly your best bet. He’s worth more than $6 million and he can still be the very solid leadoff hitter you need him to be.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
With a roster set at $60M right now, we have $14-18M to spend
With a half-way decent team boosting ticket sales, the Royals can easily be profitable with a payroll at or above $80M. Wasn’t payroll near $80M a couple years ago?
Payroll has never been at $80 million
Even if they boosted it to $80 million, we’re not going to be players for Crawford. We’re talking about investing $75 million or so. The Royals aren’t going to take that kind of investment, especially after Jose Guillen and Gil Meche burned them.
And why would he come here?
Aside from a brief period in the mid-90s when Ewing Kauffman was desperate to win a title, we have never been players for marquee free agents. It just ain’t going to happen.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
We'll have to see how the market shakes out for Crawford
but the money is there to add a marquee free agent. We’ll have to see how some key players perform the rest of this year, but come fall, if Moustakas looks likely to make an impact next year, the Royals will have no excuse not to push payroll at least north of $75M. If Crawford costs 120M over 6 years, you pass, but if he can be had at $16M per, I’d certainly consider it.
Wow
Crawford is probably going to get something like Matt Holliday money
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on May 4, 2010 9:15 PM EDT up reply actions
At $20M per, you pass
but we’ll have the money to be in the market.
You can believe what you want to believe
I will bet any amount of money Carl Crawford does not sign with the Royals, nor do they even offer him a contract.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Yes to all of that, and I think he’ll end up signing for an amount greater than all of the FA’s the Royals sign this coming offseason combined.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2010 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, it's unlikely that the Royals will sign Crawford
or any particular FA, but the point isn’t that the Royals will have Crawford next year and that they will therefore be awesome. The point is that they have $10-20 million to throw at FA’s this offseason, and in combination with some solid rookie contributions, this should make for a much improved Royals squad next year.
The point is that they have $10-20 million to throw at FA’s this offseason, and in combination with some solid rookie contributions, this should make for a much improved Royals squad next year.
And I think Retro and I dispute those factual assertions/predictions. First, I don’t think they’ll have that much money unless Glass is willing to significantly increase payroll (and we’re very skeptical of that). Second, even if the Royals had that kind of money to spend, given that Dayton Moore is spending it, I don’t think we can say that the Royals should be much improved next year, even with rookie contributions. They could, but they probably won’t.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 5, 2010 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Yes, I meant shift from the line-up at the top of the post
Not in reality, where he’s always been a 3B
True
I failed to address Kila. He’s ready now. I don’t know for sure that he’d succeed in the majors (you never know for any prospect), but he’s as ready for the majors as he’s ever going to be.
Crow and Arguelles have MLB contracts and are very likely to be MLB contributors in 2011
I don’t know. Crow might, but I doubt for a full season. Arguelles will only be called up when he’s ready (IMO). And he pretends to be young. And he certainly has little professional experience. If he doesn’t dominate at at least the high-A level this year, I don’t know if I’d expect him to be in the majors in 2011.
Montgomery won’t likely be ready to start 2011, but will hopefully join the rotation early in the year
You’re assuming a lot. This would require him pitching extremely well in AA this season. I hope he will too, but I don’t know if I’d predict or assume that just yet.
As for Moustakas, Robinson, and Giatovella, yes, they’re unlikely to be awesome in 2011, but they don’t have to be for the team to be good. Remember, the team will have the resources to add quality free agents this offseason.
I’m not just saying that they wouldn’t be awesome in the majors in 2011. I’m saying that they won’t be remotely ready for major league play next season. And from what I’ve read, with contract raises and arbitration raises, the Royals won’t have much money left to spend on FA’s.
Also, why would we think it is even reasonable to hope that Dayton Moore would acquire “quality free agents.” In his tenure, that has been very rare for DM.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2010 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: Arguelles
Based entirely off interview quotes, scouting reports, and the fact that he has an MLB contract, my gut tells me the club will pull a Hochevar with Arguelles and promote him weirdly quickly even if his minor league numbers are less than stellar. It’ll be really tough to get a sense of where he’s at until he starts pitching with an affiliate. Until then, I’m guessing he’ll be a fast mover, but that’s all it is—a guess.
Adding just Kila, Crow and a surprisingly good rookie debut from Moustakas
along with a big FA signing makes this team much much better than it currently is. The odds aren’t THAT long.
Long odds
Looks like it would take a lot of unlikelihoods for the Royals to be competitive in 2011
1. Kila on the roster (doesn’t look like Moore is at all interested in that)
2. Crow makes the Royals and is good in his rookie season (unlikely)
3. Moose makes the Royals and is good in his rookie season (unlikely)
4. Moore signs one or more good, big FA’s (extremely unlikely)
I have a better chance of winning the Powerball lottery. Ok, that’s an exaggeration, but small one.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Moore has made it sound like he'd like Kila in KC next year
But, of course, take everything Moore says with a grain of salt.
At least that would be one of those that happens.
by MinnesotaRoyal on May 4, 2010 4:39 PM EDT up reply actions
And to clarify #1
In order for Kila to make a positive impact, he’d have to a) be on the roster, b) get a lot of playing time, and c) perform well in his rookie season. Given the nature of Dayton Moore, Trey Hillman and rookie seasons, those are three big mountains to climb.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions
What if we assume competent GM-ing?
Yes, I know that’s not a safe assumption, particularly around here, but just for fun, let’s go with it.
1. Kila is on the roster and is at least decent (likely—75%)
2. Crow makes the Royals and is good (better than Kyle Davies) in his rookie season (likely—75%)
3. Moose makes the Royals and is good in his rookie season (unlikely—35%)
4. Competent GM signs one or more good, big FA’s (assuming competence, nearly certain, 100%)
Given these numbers, it’s a 20% chance that all of them happen. Does it take all of them happening for the Royals to be contenders? What about surprises from other prospects? Unexpected improvement from Getz, Butler, Gordon, et al?
Maybe 20% if the Royals had a competent GM and manager
…who would make sure that the right players were on the roster, bring in the right FA’s, and play the right players. So that is an interesting thought experiment. But then applying it to the Royals with their current management…that number goes way, way down.
But are those four things enough to make the Royals contender? I guess it depends on what “decent” means for Kila, how much “better than Davies” Crow would be, and how good those FA’s are.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not sure what it would take for Kila to get a fair shake
It’s not like this season is the first time he’s done something like this. If Moore liked him, he’d already be up.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on May 4, 2010 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I think so too. Moore and his people have decided that he doesn’t have major league tools. And for Moore, that’s the end of it.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2010 5:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Is there any more fitting three word phrase for current Royals management
than “major league tools?”
Yes, I know exactly how original and clever that is.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on May 4, 2010 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Zing!
well crafted
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2010 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions
Also
I’m not totally sold on Kila, either. I know that isn’t widespread, I absolutely do think he should have gotten an extended look in 2009 at the latest. Let’s see him against major league pitching for a while, see if he’s for real or not. Maybe he is, maybe he isn’t, but blah blah blah I know many many people have said this kind of stuff before it just drives me nuts.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on May 4, 2010 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I feel the same way
I don’t have a good idea of how he’d perform in the majors. But when you have that kind of performance record in the majors, unless you’re blocked by genuinely good players, for the love of god give him a shot. If he proves he can’t hack it in the majors, then move on.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2010 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions
It's just like with Gordon
like Neyer said, (with Gordon at 3B and Kila at Dh/1B): assuming they’re healthy, put t hem at those spots, and just tell t hem “you’re my 3B & DH/1B for the rest of the season,” and run them out there full-time. It’s do or die time — not for the players, but for the organization. Sort of.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on May 4, 2010 5:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Now that's a process
I know we have talked about this before, but Kila has such a weird profile. At first blush, he looks like another three true outcome player with a low batting average/high OBP/good SLG. But relatively speaking, he does not strike out much. Rather, he just does not get many hits that are not home runs. There are few major leaguers with that kind of profile — the best one I could find is Luke Scott, but even then you have to swap out some batting average for walks. I am unsure whether Kila’s skill set plays in the majors, but it would be fun to find out.
I'd place 'decent' for Kila as an above average wOBA
Maybe a touch higher since he’ll be a 1B/DH. Given sufficient playing time, I think he’s pretty likely to clear that bar.
As for Crow, all I know is that between Crow, Arguelles, Montgomery and Osuna along with Greinke, Meche, Bannister, Hochevar and Davies, our rotation should be pretty strong next year. There have to be 5 guys between those 9 that can be solid contributors in 2011.
Maybe a touch higher since he’ll be a 1B/DH. Given sufficient playing time, I think he’s pretty likely to clear that bar.
Boy I really don’t know if that is true. His projections (based on the major league equivalents of what he’s been donig) didn’t have him hitting that well, if I remember correctly.
As for Crow, all I know is that between Crow, Arguelles, Montgomery and Osuna along with Greinke, Meche, Bannister, Hochevar and Davies, our rotation should be pretty strong next year. There have to be 5 guys between those 9 that can be solid contributors in 2011.
The rotation could be ok next year, similar to what it is this year.
Greinke - should ace it up as usual
Meche - who knows what’s going on with him now, much less when he’s a year older
Bannister - probably a decent 3/4
Hochevar - still a big question mark
Davies - still a big question mark
Crow/Arguelles/Montgomery/Osuna - given that this would be their rookie seasons and none of them has much professional experience (except for Osuna and his mediocre minor league track record), I don’t think it is likely that any of them would solid contributors. Maybe one if the Royals get lucky.
Mostly what I see is Greinke (great), Bannister (solid) and a bunch of question marks. Given the nature of those seven question marks, I don’t think we can assume that three of them will emerge to be solid MLB starters in 2011. In general, I think the rotation would probably perform similar to how it has been in 2010. I’d be surprised if it were significantly better.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2010 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions
It's way too early to make a good guess, but let's do it anyway
Where do you see the Royals record falling next season?
My gut says mid-70's
Because I don’t think that there will be a lot of money to upgrade the team, and because I think Moore will replace departing players with more Ankiels, Podsedniks, Guillens, Farnsworths, Betancourt’s, etc. I don’t think I’m simply knee-jerk negative about Moore, but I think the best predictor of his future performance is his past performance. And there’s been a lot more bad than good.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 5, 2010 9:13 AM EDT up reply actions
I'll take 81
At a minimum, they have $10M to spend before they hit their current 70M threshold, and Meche’s contract ending one year later gives them some flexibility to backload contracts a bit. I think they’ll boost payroll over 70M tho. I think some talented rookies will knock off some of the dead weight on the current roster, and we’ll see continued gradual improvements from Butler, Gordon, Getz, Callaspo and Hochevar. The team will be significantly improved next year.
I'd take that bet
I’ll take the under for any amount.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 5, 2010 11:10 AM EDT up reply actions
DANSSTOAD
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on May 5, 2010 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions
I have a very exciting life
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on May 5, 2010 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
And don't get my criticisms wrong
I think it would be wonderful if the Royals let some of these younger guys play. I’m just not optimistic this would be a competitive team at all in the near future. It will take awhile for these guys to become impact players.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
And the sad thing is that by the time these young guys could become impact players, the Royals will have likely lost the current impact players.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 4, 2010 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions
Better sooner than later
We might as well be breaking out “when is the ideal time to trade Greinke” debates
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on May 4, 2010 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions
Admittedly
it would be an act of compassion.
The significant problems we have cannot be solved at the same level of thinking with which we created them. -- Albert Einstein
by The Ol' Perfesser on May 4, 2010 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah... but I wonder if his value is so high
that he might be “untradable” for a fair return.
But, yeah, the sooner the better.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on May 4, 2010 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions
does he really provide much value to the Royals right now?
I guess 95 losses is better than 101…
She said "are you stupid or just apathetic?"
I said "I don't know and I don't care"
by Royal Kingdom on May 4, 2010 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions
I know it's not likely that the Royals will be contenders next season
That’s not really the point. The point is that there are real prospects who have a real chance to make an impact with the club as soon as next year, and that if they beat the odds and surprise us, the Royals COULD be genuinely competitive for once. It’s not about WILL, it’s about COULD. I know ‘could’ isn’t exciting for a lot of people, but for the Royals, who have been completely hopeless for nearly a decade, I think it’s worth talking about.
Honestly, next year, I think the most likely scenario next year is that we’ll be watching a team scratching for .500 with a couple exciting rookies on the team. There’s a chance, tho, that the team could be more.
Having youth
At least gives you hope at upside, unlike the veterans we already know the value or lack thereof.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Any chance we could get Crawford
for something like $90m/five years, or is that a pipe dream?
He’s the only name on that list of FAs that really jumped out at me. Of course, we could re-sign Doug Mienkewicz, since we need a Pole to appeal to this country’s large Polish-American community.
POD WILL EXPLOD!!!!1!!
That might be enough to get him
I don’t really know how much he’ll cost, but $18M per year for five years sounds reasonable. He might end up getting less. But I think it is a pipe dream to think that the Royals will have that much money to spend. Even if Moore had $18M to work with, he prefers to spread the money he spends out to several cheap players, rather than pool that money on one impact player.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 5, 2010 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions
$80M/5 is the lowest I would guess Crawford will get
For 5 year, I suspect it will be more like 90M, and he might get 6 or 7 years.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on May 5, 2010 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Somebody’s cranky and carrying a grudge. Don’t worry; you’ll get over it.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 6, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Ok, maybe you won’t get over it. ;)
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on May 6, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Royals Review
Related FanShots on Royals Review
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Big League Stew - MLB - Yahoo! Sports
- College player makes impossible over the fence catch to save tournament game (Video)
- Security!: Camden Yards guard collides with Royals’ Mike Moustakas
- The Juice: Nelson Cruz matches career high eight RBIs, Pujols stays hot in Seattle
- Benches clear at Fenway as Red Sox-Rays rivalry heats up
- Keeping good company: Albert Pujols becomes fourth-youngest player to hit 450 home runs
