The Balboni Watch?
by Tito42 on Jun 1, 2010 3:51 PM EDT
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PrintLike it or not, Jose Guillen has played in all 52 games this season and is "on pace" to hit and 34 HR and 103 RBI after nearly a third of the season. There are major doubts that Guillen will keep this pace up. ZIPS(RoS) projects a more reasonable finish of 23 HR and 80 RBI for JoGui.
If we were to suspend skepticism and advanced statistics for a moment and Guillen makes a run at 36 HR, should we celebrate what might be the best power output by a Royals hitter since Jermaine Dye cranked out 33 HR and 118 RBI? Or would Guillen holding the Royals single-season HR title be your worst nightmare, like Larry Johnson holding the Chiefs' rushing title?
Taking a look at the challengers to Balboni's record since 1985:
| Player (Age) | Season | HR @ 52 Games | HR @ 162 Games | Prev. Player High |
| D. Tartabull (24) | 1987 | 8 | 34 | 25 |
| Bo Jackson (26) | 1989 | 12 | 32 | 25 |
| Gary Gaetti (36) | 1995 | 15 | 35 | 34 |
| Chili Davis (37) | 1997 | 6 | 30 | 29 |
| Dean Palmer (29) | 1998 | 12 | 34 | 38 |
| Jermaine Dye (26) | 2000 | 14 | 33 | 27 |
| Jose Guillen (34) | 2010 | 11 | ? | 31* |
So Jose Guillen wouldn't be the oldest to challenge the Balboni mark. Tartabull and Davis had fewer through 52 games yet still hit 30 HR on the season. Dean Palmer is the only other Royal besides JoGui to have hit at least 30 HR in a prior season (*Note: Guillen's 31 in 2003 were split between Oakland and Cincinatti).
Is the fact that there were 4 challengers between '95 and '00 a testament to the front office valuing HR hitters more than the current regime, or a reflection of the steroid era (without pointing any fingers at the 4 on the list and noting that Grimsley wasn't on the roster until '01)?
JoGui's career splits would lend to the assumption that his power numbers will cool off as the season grinds on:
| Split | G | PA | HR |
| April/March | 253 | 949 | 34 |
| May | 317 | 1253 | 42 |
| June | 273 | 1078 | 40 |
| July | 229 | 891 | 32 |
| August | 240 | 959 | 33 |
| Sept/Oct | 242 | 928 | 25 |
With all of that said, I can't help but think if anyone other than Jose Guillen had hit 11 HR at this point in the season, the most optimistic of us might dream of someone finally breaking Balboni's record. As it is, most of us hope he can keep it up just long enough to be traded for a prospect. Any prospect.
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He will tweet something about Yost
and get benched then released shortly before breaking the record, which wont break my heart!
Are we the team to beat in 2010? I sure think so! Go Chiefs.
by jrcnc on Jun 1, 2010 4:01 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Bob Hamelin
24 HR through 115 games in 1994. That’s on pace for 34 if they keep playing!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I can't believe that cells/spreadsheets are still so hard to format on SBN, but here's his monthly above/below AVG for HR per PA based on the numbers you posted
Split HR/PA % Above AVG
Ap/Mar.. 0.036 0.002 5.4%
May……. 0.034 (0.000) -1.4%
June….. 0.037 0.003 9.1%
July……. 0.036 0.002 5.6%
August. 0.034 0.000 1.2%
Sept/Oct 0.027 (0.007) -20.8%
AVG……. 0.034
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by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jun 1, 2010 4:16 PM EDT reply actions
June/July is his best time
Says he likes the “hot weather” months, iirc.
August and beyond, the wear-and-tear (plus cooler weather?) seem to bog him down.
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by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jun 1, 2010 4:17 PM EDT up reply actions
in his favor, he should get less worn down and less likely to be injured being just a DH.
In the against column he doesnt have Mike Jacobs “protecting” him this year
~~~Damn, I wish i had a clever signature
that's true
the DH thing may be balanced out by the “getting older” thing, but it certainly must help.
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by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jun 2, 2010 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions
what about Mark Quinn?
didn’t he have like 12 the first week then retired with 13 or something?
~~~Damn, I wish i had a clever signature
wow...my brain just froze up after hearing the name Mark Quinn. That name had fallen into the back of my mind. I will have nightmares now.
It all happens here. the royals came to play and so did you. more to do than you can shake a foam finger at.
by Clearly Ambiguous on Jun 1, 2010 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
He had 9 in the first 23 games
…in 2001. He finished that season with 17 HR and had 20 HR in 2000.
For his brief career, he actually hit .282/.324/.481 over 1,166 PAs with an OPS+ of 101, 45 HR, 167 RBI, and 17 SB. Finished with a career WAR of +3.0.
Jose's May numbers make it pretty likely that he's not going to make it to the deadline without a DL stint
a lot of red flags there
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nah
Guillen’s inability to reach outside pitches tells you that he’s still banged up and it’s only a matter of time before one of his swings is too much for him to handle.
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo (follow me, because reloading my twitter page 40 times a day is kind of creepy)
It would be cool if he can hit 25+ homeruns
It would be a change for once. As long as he can OPS .825 I’ll be happy with him as the DH most of the year…especially if Gordon plays RF then Kila, Guillen and Butler can rotate between DH/1B with regular days off
There are a lot of things that are embarrassing about the Royals, but this "record" always takes the cake in my mind
Balboni’s record has been around for so long that it shouldn’t matter anymore…but are you kidding me?
Seriously.
It’s ridiculous that no Royal has hit more than 36 HR’s. We can blame the park until we are blue in the face, but it’s still embarrassing.
I really hope Kila breaks it. That would be ironic.
Waiting for April.
a different team
in Japan
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo (follow me, because reloading my twitter page 40 times a day is kind of creepy)
Wouldn't be ironic if he never came close to breaking it
since we all expect him to get promoted and be a good player
It would mean Moore was right. Impossible!
by GobbleforCyoung on Jun 1, 2010 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
No it wouldn't
The point is that Moore never gave him the chance and continually blocked him with guys like Ross Gload and Mike Jacobs. Guys that were proven to be mediocre, when we don’t know all that much about Kila, and he would have been cheaper. That’s what I blame Moore for, Kila could completely bomb, and I would still believe the correct choice would have been to play Kila over Gload and Jacobs. Jacobs cost us Leo Nunez, isn’t that reason enough to believe that DM was wrong on this issue?
"We can blame the park..."
Part of the reason that Balboni’s record is so embarrassing is precisely because the K is not a terribly bad hitter’s park (as opposed to, say, Seattle’s Safeco or San Diego’s Petco). In fact, the K used to be an even better hitters park when the left and right center fences were brought closer to home plate.
It's hard to compare across eras
so while Petco and Safeco are low HR parks, they also exist in a more generous run environment.
And while it’s true that Kauffman was a bit of a hitters park in the 1980s, having a higher-than-average run-scoring environment does not necessarily mean that it more of a HR park. The factors I use on my computer (from a guy who goes by terpsfan) are pretty standard. 1985 kaufman is almost completely for run scoring, but is .89 for HRs — very difficult.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jun 1, 2010 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions
Was going to say the same thing.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
All for it
I hope he does challenge 36 HR’s because hopefully that means the Royals are winning, I don’t really care for individual records I care about W’s and L’s
Four comments:
1) I will root AGAINST Guillen beating Balboni’s record – despite it being an absurdly low record that survived the steroid era, the moving in of the fences at the K, etc. I simply DO NOT want Guillen to hold the record.
2) Beltran was on his way to breaking it the year he was traded – I believe he ended up hitting a combined 41 (?) homers that season between KC and HTN.
3) Another team record I want broken is 7 RBIs in one game. Numerous holders of that team record now – but it’s one name that has me wanting it broken. Jerry Grote. For you younger posters – think Kendall, but with perhaps more grit and less actual batting talent. I thought for sure Bo Jackson was gonna do it the time he had 3 HRs and 7 RBIs thru 5 innings in NY – but he got hurt diving for a ball in the OF. Damon once had 7 RBIs in a game in Seattle with at least 2 ABs left – but couldn’t get another. I’m sure I’m forgetting other near-misses
4) Need to adjust Guillen’s HR pace to account for 9 interleague games in NL parks, where he is unlikely to get more than 5 or 6 ABs as a pinch hitter. I really don’t see them playing him in RF again – as his legs reportedly nearly fell off the one game they tried that this season
4)
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
by loyal2sdad on Jun 1, 2010 4:51 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Beltran had 38 in 2004
I suspect HRs were easier to hit in Houston that season, but I’m not sure.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 1, 2010 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Um maybe subconsciously you are talking about the 7 RBI record because your boy also holds that record
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=280607110
I remember watching Guillen destroy the Yankees. I live in NY so it was right on prime time. I remember David Cone and Michael Kay were like, “Damn, everyone was laughing at the Royals for this signing, but if Guillen plays like this all year he’ll be one of the biggest bargains in free agency!”
by GobbleforCyoung on Jun 1, 2010 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
LOL - could be!
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
Interesting topic, BTW
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
I still love watching the old highlights with Balboni. He looked like his name was Balboni. Bald, big, awkward with a mustache...nice.
I want this record broken badly as well. I really don’t expect this to be Jose, however.
I would think it will be Gordon or Moose that takes over this record. And…neither on our roster. Love being a Royals fan!
It all happens here. the royals came to play and so did you. more to do than you can shake a foam finger at.
by Clearly Ambiguous on Jun 1, 2010 5:41 PM EDT reply actions
I remember the good old days
When Mike Jacobs was a no-doubter to break the record before the season even began.
after opening day
Yuni was on pace to obliterate it!
~~~if there is one thing i absolutely know for sure its... ummmm uhhh.... uhhh
nevermind
he could still surprise you!
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 2, 2010 10:09 AM EDT up reply actions
A Balboni story
This occured after his Royals days, when he was playing out the end of his career with the Yankees.
After a game at the K on a Saturday night, a bunch of my fellow vendors and I went to Fuddrucker’s on Noland Road for a bite to eat. Balboni was seated in the corner, eating dinner with his wife (I think he still made his home in KC even after leaving the Royals). The entire time we were there, not a single patron recognized him or went over to get an autograph, etc.
I think that sums up who he was perfectly. Truly a “meat and potatoes”, regular guy, taking his wife to a very ordinary restaurant after work. Not even recognized in the town where he was a significant part of their only championship.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
nice
I like stories that portray athletes as regular people. Tis the way it should be
by GobbleforCyoung on Jun 2, 2010 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
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