FanPost

Royals Outlook: now, medium, and long term

There's been much debate lately about the Royal's future.  Is it bright?  Is "The Process" working or is this all just another tease?  I thought I'd put the question to some of the site's best contributors.

Site contributors who participated: jonfmorse, nyroyal, matt klaassen, jeff zimmerman, nwroyal

If you were left out and feel that you shouldn't have been I apologize for the slight.  I basically went through the most rec'd posts of all time and contacted the authors (if there was a public email address).  Not everyone had the time to reply.  Now let's get on with it...

 

Baseball Prospectus's Postseason Odds (on 5/28) report simulates the remainder of the season and currently  gives the Royals a 4.48% chance of making the playoffs this year.  Instead it predicts that they'll finish in 4th place and win 76 games.  Would you take the over or the under on the win total?

  • Over
  • Under - jonfmorse, nyroyal, matt klaassen, jeff zimmerman, nwroyal

 

Keith Law ranked the Royal's farm system #9 overall and prospects like Mike Moustakous, Mike Montgomery, Aaron Crow, Kila Ka'aihue and others could start arriving as soon as the 2011 season.  Dayton Moore recently opined that a prospect needs about 3 years of Major League experience to reach peak performance.  Which of the following do you think is the best finish in this time period (2011 - 2013)?

  • Royals make the playoffs
  • Royals eliminated from contention in September
  • Royals finish above .500 - nyroyal, matt klaassen, nwroyal
  • Royals win 70 - 80 games - jonfmorse, jeff zimmerman
  • Royals win less than 70 games

Seasons 2014 - 2020 figure to be the career peaks of the prospects who are currently in the organization.  What do you think the Royals best season from these years will be?

  • Royals make the playoffs - matt klaassen, jeff zimmerman, nwroyal
  • Royals eliminated from contention in September
  • Royals finish above .500 - jonfmorse, nyroyal, 
  • Royals win 70 - 80 games
  • Royals win less than 70 games 

 

The Royals have invested as heavily, if not more so, than any other team in their farm system in the past 3 years trying to follow the model of other successful small market farm systems like the Minnesota Twins and the Tampa Bay Rays.  How long do you think the Royals will maintain this advantage over the other teams in their division?

  • It's already over, 2010 was the last year. - matt klaassen
  • When home grown players begin to reach arbitration and free agency.
  • When Glass is satisfied with the team's success he will stop investing. - 
  • Never, Glass now understands that a continuous flow of amatuer talent is the only way for the Royals to be successful. - jonfmorse, nyroyal, jeff zimmerman, nwroyal

 

Player acquisition from outside the organization has been a critical part of the Minnesota (Nathan, Liriano, Hardy) and Tampa Bay (Bartlett, Garza, Pena, Howell etc.) successes.  Dayton Moore has made some terrible trades and signed some terrible free-agents that have made us all think that he's incapable of differentiating good players from bad.  What's the likeliest outcome for the Royals and Dayton Moore?

  • He's fired before he has a chance to trade our homegrown talent for magic beans. - matt klaassen
  • He learn's from his mistakes and has better talent to trade with.  He successfully fills the roster holes.
  • Player development produces enough talent that he doesn't have many holes to fill and has enough talent in the pipe to replace what he wastes. - jonfmorse, nwroyal
  • He trades our cheap home-grown talent for expensive or soon to be expensive replacement level players (or worse). - nyroyal, jeff zimmerman

 

When's the next year that you think the Royals will make the playoffs?

  • 2011 - 2013
  • 2014 - jonfmorse, nwroyal
  • 2015
  • 2016 - matt klaassen
  • 2017 - jeff zimmerman 
  • 2018 
  • 2019
  • 2020 or later - nyroyal

 

To summarize the results: there's consensus that the Royals won't see success this year and see only minor improvement until the current set of prospects hit their stride as major league players.  Then there's some expectation of a playoff appearance in the middle part of this decade.  The organization is expected to keep focusing on building a strong farm system, but there's disagreement about whether Dayton will know what to do with that (or if he'll even be around).

This FanPost was written by a member of the Royals Review community. It does not necessarily reflect the views of the editors and writers of this site.

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