Royals Complete One Of The Most College-Heavy Drafts Of All Time

9 high schoolers, 8 SEC players

50/50??

You can’t just file it away as desperation, because Dayton knows like the rest of us that the overwhelming majority of these guys won’t sniff AAA, let alone KC.

Maybe it is simply a case of signing the cheapest possible filler because they really didn’t rate anybody out there from HS.

but they quit after 40 rounds, so I think they got like 4 extra picks with draft comp. So 35 of 44? including Dallas Braden

From what looked like a good philosophy to what looks like a bad philosophy. And if the reason for the change was to add the finally complementary pieces to the 2012/13 team(s), then this draft philosophy was beyond stupid.

they took the players they liked. just as they’ve done in previous years.

Supposedly, this year’s draft was one of the thinnest in year in terms of high school talent. What that actually means, I don’t know. I thought the philosophy behind the later rounds is to find under the radar guys who you can develop rather than just finding the best talent out there, but what do I know.

Second, it is possible that given the supposed weakness of this year’s draft, the Royals made a decision to focus more of their financial resources on international signings. I’m hoping this is the case.

Third, we can’t rule out the possibility that Glass is closing his pocketbook. It’s unlikely but entirely possible.

the 1993 draft went for 91 rounds (with the Padres and Marlins going all the way to the end). The 1994 draft went for 98 rounds (with the Astros making the only pick of the 88th through 98th rounds). The Marlins went for 87 rounds in 1995. The 1996 draft went for 100 rounds with the Rays and Yankees alternating picks from rounds 84 to 97 and the Yankees making 3 more picks. The 1997 draft went for 92 rounds with the Rays making the only pick from rounds 71 to 92.

The 50 round draft started in 1998.

Better facilities than rookie and A ball
choosing where you play rather than risking ending up in Burlington, IA
co-eds!

I’d need to listen again to hear if DM really said he drafted a good mix of HS and college while on Wright this afternoon

The facts are a guy has to worry about his job. It doesn’t matter if it’s you me or GMDM. He is banking on the 2012 guys to make him a longterm GM.

I like the Top 5 guys we got while I would substitute Eibner for someone else he is a highly talented athlete who at least has a fall back option if he can’t stop striking out.

Colon is solid and considering I was a Grant Green advocate last season I can’t complain about that pick at all especially in weak draft class. Grandal was a loser in my mind and I spotted Colon at the start of the year thinking he wouldn’t be worth the fourth pick but the way it settled out no one was especially worth it so he sounds as good as anyone.

Chapman is a hard throwing lefty that should move quickly along the same line as Louis Coleman. It would be nice to have guys towards the backend of the pen so Monty, Greinke, Lamb, etc can earn some wins and Chapman along with Coleman, Wood and Soria could possibly make for a strong bullpen. Mayo was surprised Chapman hung until the 4th Rd.

As for Antonio and Adam these are similar to the types the Royals have picked in the past. Adam is right along the lines of that Tim Melville, Mike Montgomery or Danny Duffy talent. Getting the #54 or 76 talent depending on who you go with in the 5th round is impressive no matter how you shake it. As for Antonio KC must have really liked him to spot him in the 3rd round.

After 5 rd guys are a crapshoot anyway so I don’t mind taking college guys who have less upside but present some possibilities.

“The Royals took a slew of college players without rolling the dice on any real tough signs, and the upside of this draft class seems limited to me.”

i’ve heard moore on more than one occasion say on petro’s show that he prefers college players to HS players…this could also support the shift noted by nwroyal above, b/c IIRC this is when Ladnier was fired.

still, this many college players, while it doesn’t send up a red flag, is of note b/c of the POSSIBILITY that Glass has reined in the pursestrings. it also could be the “get everybody here for one window of contention” possibility that NY offered. either one of these would not be good.

i’ll reserve judgment for now but it is certainly an odd data point.

 (Bozeman, MT): Hi Jim, thanks so much for the chat! A lot of people are banging on the Royals for picking a “need” in drafting Christian Colon at #4, but people aren’t talking about the possibility that with so little perceived value separating #s 4-20 or so that picking a need enhances a player’s value. Do you see it that way?

Jim Callis: I think that’s unfair. This draft had a clear top three (Harper, Taillon, Machado) and then a muddle. The Royals had interest in Sale and Grandal but didn’t like the price tags. Colon is a very good player. At worst, he’s a decent regular shortstop, and that’s at worst. Very good pure hitter who wills himself to win. I love that guy.

Chuck (Wichita): Do you like Brett Eibner better as a pitcher or outfielder?

Jim Callis: I think it’s pretty close. He wants to hit, and I’d send him out as a hitter because I think it’s easier to make him a pitcher later rather than try to make him a hitter after he tries pitching first. He added a good deal of polish both ways this year, nice progress.

Here’s the way I see it. Dayton Moore came here and wanted to build a foundation. Teams that have a foundation in place don’t have to gamble as much on the draft. Instead, they can fill needs with several players and wait to see who turns out the best. If not one is a clear cut best, they can afford to wait for the next year or the year after. I think GMDM is comfortable with his minor league system. That’s why we saw what we saw this year.

He took a few wild card players including Eibner and the NY SS kid. I think if Eibner goes pitching only, he’ll be at least a number 3 starter in the bigs. And that’s what I want to see him do. He also took a lot of kids that were college starting pitchers. If we hit a HR on a few of those guys, this draft is just fine. We took speedy OFers and a lot of athletic SSs who will move off the position. We also took a few catchers but no one of real superior makeup.

There are a few reasons to load your system up with NCAA arms. Competition (you laugh) and experience. Like I said, if we hit on a few of those arms, we’ll be fine.

The HS guys we took are flyers. The 5th rounder was supposed to be 2nd/3rd round and a million dollar arm. Those are the gambles. And they could pay off huge or be nothing at all.

Like I said, I think Dayton is comfortable with where the Minors are and he is promoting competition and adding experience to see who does the best. They know a lot of those kids won’t ever make it, but the two or three that do will be worth it.

1. It could be a factor of the level of minor leagues that needs to be bolstered for the next year or two.

2. It could be their desire to shorten the time from draft day to Moorean primes.

From my perspective, it’s pretty clear what they were doing in the draft: drafting a ton of players who are likely to be closer to the bigs in the hopes that some of them will join the 2011/2012 wave. This regime clearly believes in the Wave theory of bringing up talent together. My guess is next year they go high school again to start building the second wave. I don’t like this approach, I’d much rather have the constant pipeline—keep adding young’uns and have a steady stream of graduates. This is what Petro was griping about on the show following the draft. He called the Wave strategy the “Marlins strategy” versus, what, the Tampa strategy?

I get trying to fill needs, but changing your strategy for an entire draft to fit the Wave philosophy doesn’t sound to me like it will work. But we’re gonna find out fairly soon.

This is a massive change in philosophy, and, as NYRoyal pointed out earlier, it’s not for the better. Sacrificing upside, even in a “weak” draft, seems short sighted for a front office whose primary (and almost only) redeeming quality is the building and development of the farm system. Here’s a bunch of random thoughts and responses (sorry if it repeats some stuff):

1) This draft creates a considerable developmental hole in the system for the middle of the decade. One of the best things Moore has done so far is build a system where there is now quality at every level, which would provide as regular a source for good MLB players every year. The upside is so low for college guys and the time for them to improve so short that they just cannot provide as many quality prospects that a balance of HS and college players would.

2) College guys are quickly dismissed as prospects unless they make the majors in a short period of time. Many of the recent “Breakout Discussions” on minor leaguers have been dismissive of college draftees because they are now “too old” to be prospects, but part of the problem is that the organization has treated them developmentally in Moore’s “it takes 6-10 years to become a good major league player” mentality. When all you have in one draft is college guys that can’t start higher because you have other prospects ahead of them, they will languish even if they had the talent to move faster. Keeping a steady supply of HS kids and internationals to keep the AZL team as a real developmental team to leave space in the higher levels for promising college talent is vital for a team like the Royals who are putting all of their eggs in the homegrown talent basket. When all of your draftees are college guys, the only place for most of them to go is the rookie leagues.

3) The money thing is a false issue. Moore has a budget for the draft each year, it’s not a piggy bank. Money “saved” this year is not extra money available next. If it’s still around at the end of the year, it’s profit for the organization. If that is reinvested in next year’s budget, it still gets split up over everything from draft picks to grass seed to Dayton’s salary. There’s no need to save a draft budget any year.

4) “It’s harder to sign college kids in lower rounds because their college scholarships are more valuable” is simply not true. It’s industry standard that one perk these kids get for passing on college now is that the team will pay for their college tuition when their done playing baseball, regardless of how well they did, which is not a tremendous amount of money for a baseball team to handle.

5) “It was a weak draft.” So? You pick a HS kid in the second round who may only be as good as the fifth round HS guy you got in 2008. That was John Lamb, one of the ten best prospects in the system. Drafting a John Lamb in the second round doesn’t seem so bad. In a vacuum, the kid may not be worth the round, but context says that he is. Eibner may have upside, but Yordy Cabrera, Griffin Murphy, or Cartier Goodrum (2nd round HS guys taken after the Royals’ pick) likely have more. That’s the promise of upside: it more than likely will not pan out, but it may, and if it does, you get a star instead of a bench player.

6) Of all the things Dayton does wrong, the drafts in 2007 and 2008 (and 2009 to a lesser extent as there was a college lean to at least the top rounds) suggested that the high upside oriented draft was the one thing he did right. Here’s the BA Preseason Top 10 Prospects for the Royals:
1. Mike Montgomery, lhp
2. Aaron Crow, rhp
3. Wil Myers, c
4. Mike Moustakas, 3b
5. Eric Hosmer, 1b
6. Tim Melville, rhp
7. John Lamb, lhp
8. Danny Duffy, lhp
9. Chris Dwyer, lhp
10. David Lough, of
Seven of those ten were high schoolers taken in one of Dayton’s draft, and most of their stock has risen since then. Were there certainly college players available at each of those picks that were worth taking, but the risk of the HS players has been worth the reward so far. To change philosophy now when the original philosophy seems to be working so well definitely puts some fire with the smoke to the "Moore is playing for the short term payoff to save his job and not the long term health of the franchise. And that is incredibly disappointing.