White Sox Sneak, Or Streak, Into First Place At The Break

by Freneau on Jul 12, 2010 12:02 AM EDT in Kansas City Royals News

The AL Central at the All-Star Break:

AL Central Standings

	W	L	PCT	GB	STRK
Chicago	49	38	.563	0	Won 8
Detroit	48	38	.558	0.5	Lost 1
Minnesota	46	42	.522	3.5	Won 1
Kansas City	39	49	.443	10.5	Lost 3
Cleveland	34	54	.386	15.5	Lost 2

(updated 7.11.2010 at 11:26 PM EDT)

Quietly, our little division has become fascinating.

The White Sox were 22-29 at one point, and I don't even know if that was their low point. They were simply a miserable team for basically two full months. Thanks to two long winning streaks, and some little bits of good play mixed in,the White Sox have gone 27-9 in their last 36 games. If you like drama, this is a fantastic development: a three-team race would be tremendous, and the White Sox are fun to have around. This looks like one of the easier teams to upgrade via trade and Kenny Williams tends to be aggressive. Stay tuned.
The Tigers lost first place, but should nevertheless be thrilled with their first half. To me, they seem like the White Sox: there's a lot of variability in their roster, and you can imagine seasons in which they win 78 games or 94 games. Detroit has won with a solid offense (5th in the AL) and a mediocre pitching staff (8th) that seems to be just barely surviving. They also share with the White Sox an odd mix of just about done players (Damon, Guillen, Ordonez) supported by a younger wave of some usefulness (Boesch, Scherzer, Porcello and Jackson a bit). The Tigers also have Miguel Cabrera amidst a career season, perhaps the best season of any player in the division.
Minnesota has been bland for two months now, but really, they're still in good shape. After starting 19-9, the Twins have gone 27-33, despite doing all the little things and playing the game the right way. On something vague like "base talent" or somesuch, the Twins are probably the best team in the division, but the division isn't going to be handed to them. The Twins are 5th in runs allowed (in the AL) and 6th in runs scored. Mediocrity across the board, which could be seen as a strength, has also sapped away some of the effectiveness of their pitching staff. In a stunning development, both Mauer and Morneau have missed time with injuries in the first half. Amazing!
Then we come to our Royals. 39-49. I think we've all seen worse.
The Indians are still in last. Can you imagine if anybody had picked them to win the division?

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So much for Gardy's allegedly magical means of getting his teams to play above their talent

PythagenPat standings:

1 MIN 48-40 (.543)
2 CHA 47-40 (.537)
3 DET 44-42 (.513)
4 KCA 39-49 (.446)
5 CLE 36-52 (.507)

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 12, 2010 12:27 AM EDT reply actions

but if the Twins had Yost . . .

by Gopherballs on Jul 12, 2010 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions

they have at least 60 wins

at least

by Freneau on Jul 12, 2010 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions

For The Season?

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jul 12, 2010 12:40 AM EDT up reply actions

The Hllman firing really threw them for a loop

I think they were going to wait for September, and if they were still behind, they were planning on firing Gardy and picking up Yost for his masterful handling of final dashes for the post-season.

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 12, 2010 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions

Will and others have done a good job of pointing it out, but the " little things" for the Twins is especially hilarious this year. It’s rather insulting to their players, too. Why can’t people jsut say, “You know Morneau and Liriano are having f—ing unbelievable seasons.” No, they give credit to the dude who looks like, well, everyone knows what Gardy looks like.

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 12, 2010 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions

I guess this contradicts what I said above

but if i was a twins fan, I would have to be a little worried

I dont see any obvious ways their current group is going to get better, unless Mauer explodes

by Freneau on Jul 12, 2010 12:34 AM EDT up reply actions

Well, for what it's worth

ZiPS and CHONE still see Mauer as an offensive monster going forward this season

but really, without getting into “projection” stuff, and assume that their run differential is how they’ll “really” play going forward, they should be right in it, if randomness evens out.

Detroit has not only been lucky in terms of run differential, but they have a number of players due for regression. Cabrera is awesome, but this pace is insane even for him. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Brennan Boesch doesn’t end the season with a .423 wOBA. Their rotation might be in a bit of trouble.

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 12, 2010 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions

I think, in retrospect, everyone was a little too high on the twins

I feel like there was some kind of consensus that they’d reached a new level heading into this season, when maybe that was making too much of the side moves that they made

I don’t think they can win 90 games

by Freneau on Jul 12, 2010 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions

I had them at mid-high 80s, and I stand by that

I do think that the White Sox and Detroit are going to play worse in the second half, though, for various reasons. We’ll see. I’m glad this rememinded me that I’ve been meaning to write my “Not Good Enough, Joe” post for a while.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score.

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 12, 2010 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions

yea

but now the problem for the twins is its going to be harder to win the division by default, b/c they’ll have to fend off two teams

speaking of subtly disappointing players… Heyward’s numbers are good, but… I know he’s young…

.251/.366 /.455

Cameron’s Greatest Young Rookie Ever post at FG jinxed him

by Freneau on Jul 12, 2010 1:22 AM EDT up reply actions

Mitch On Steroids

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jul 12, 2010 2:41 AM EDT up reply actions

so

he’ll be Alex Gordon’d soon by the Cult of the Batting Average?

Honestly, Batting Average is just another percentage, it’s about how often you get on and how far you go, and I’d hope that idea spreads a bit.

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by BHWick on Jul 12, 2010 3:19 AM EDT up reply actions

#1Rook?

But seriously… an .821 OPS with a .204 ISO at 20 in the majors is pretty f—ing impressive. Billy Butler.

Dude’s almost a year younger than Moose.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score.

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 12, 2010 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Will, don't discount

that they let him play with a bad thumb for about a month before finally putting him on the DL.

Of course, we can’t know this for sure – but surely that impacted his performance some?

"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009

"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876

by loyal2sdad on Jul 13, 2010 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

Oh, Gardy

He always amused me. Those were the days.

"You'll never make it to the bigs with fungus on your shower shoes."

by MinnesotaRoyal on Jul 12, 2010 9:07 AM EDT up reply actions

also...

Joe Mauer has an OPS under .800

just sayin

by Freneau on Jul 12, 2010 12:31 AM EDT reply actions

his new contract doesn't start until next season

so he really isn’t being paid to put up +40 offensive seasons until then. It’s cool.

(yes, just gave away a motif for an upcoming post)

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 12, 2010 12:33 AM EDT up reply actions

and I've heard NOTHING about it

in part because dude was still chugging along with a .300 BA (mainstream) and a .380 or .390 OBP for awhile (saber). he’s still over .360 which is great OBP for a catcher, but…

by Freneau on Jul 12, 2010 12:36 AM EDT up reply actions

Mauer Is No

Longer merely a catcher; he is a centaur riding a unicorn towing endless rainbows behind him. No pressure.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jul 12, 2010 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions

what a terrible prediction!

Cleveland lol

You might as well have picked the Royals if you were serious about it.

So about this sweep. I wouldn’t go overboard the Rangers acquired Lee, he pitched and they got swept by the worst team in baseball if you didn’t notice AT HOME.

That’s bad

by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 12, 2010 12:57 AM EDT reply actions

I don't usually put too much weight into home/road splits in the pros

But Lee has something over a 7 ERA at Arlington in his career. I’ll be curious to see what he does on the road now to see if it’s a product of his location or his new team.

"You'll never make it to the bigs with fungus on your shower shoes."

by MinnesotaRoyal on Jul 12, 2010 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Not as good obviously

Safeco is like a planet its so big

by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 12, 2010 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know, 10.5 back

and being thoroughly outclassed by a merely average roster, I think we’re still in this! First 11 days after the break, and we’re in first. Mark it down.

by scobes on Jul 12, 2010 1:23 AM EDT reply actions

I dunno man

it might take at least 12-13 games to do so

the white sox or Twins could steal a game or two

by Freneau on Jul 12, 2010 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions

OSWALT NOW

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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 12, 2010 9:00 AM EDT up reply actions

nah

We can just throw 36 million at Meche to suck it up his last 3 years of that contract

Its so funny Moore used to hang his hat on that!!!!!! What a fucking idiot

by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 12, 2010 2:27 PM EDT up reply actions

other team can win games too?

that throws a serious wrench in my Process

by scobes on Jul 12, 2010 1:26 AM EDT reply actions

I've got a bad feeling that this could be a very rough second half for the Royals.

If the team’s batting average falls down just a little bit, they’re going to struggle mightily to score runs. They’re still not walking at all (2nd to last) and middle of the pack slugging. I hope the last series wasn’t a preview of what is coming.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jul 12, 2010 8:01 AM EDT reply actions