Dayton's Free Agents vs. Free Talent

A much discussed concept in sabermetric circles is the concept of freely available talent. The vice of many General Managers is the willingness to pay millions of dollars for production that could be matched by freely available talent - players acquired off waivers, minor league free agency, or through the Rule 5 draft.

I wanted to take a look at how Dayton has fare through both strategies. You would expect the free agents to have the upper hand on quality, with the advantage of freely available talent being quantity.

For purposes of this exercise, I defined "freely available talent" as anyone that was acquired off waivers, minor league free agency, the Rule 5 draft, or inconsequential trades. Value is listed in Wins Above Replacement (WAR).

"Grit ain't free man."

2007 Free Agents
Gil Meche 4.4
John Bale 1.0.
David Riske 0.4
Octavio Dotel 0.2
Total: 6.0

Total cost: $16,200,000

2007 Freely Available Talent
Joakim Soria 2.4
Tony Pena 1.3
John Thomson 0.3
Brandon Duckworth 0.3
Jason Smith –0.1
Luke Hudson –0.2
Neal Musser –0.2
Todd Wellemyer –0.4
Total: 3.4

Remember these halcyon days when everything Dayton touched turned to gold? The Gil Meche deal,
roundly mocked by the stats community, was looking like a steal. Dayton was praised for assembling a
good pen combined with free agent vets and freely available talent including the biggest feather in his cap–
Joakim Soria.

2008 Free Agents
Gil Meche 5.0
Miguel Olivo 1.1
Brett Tomko 0.6
John Bale 0.6
Ron Mahay 0.5
Jose Guillen –0.1
Yasuhika Yabuta –0.1
Total: 7.6

Total cost: $36,500,000

2008 Freely Available Talent
Joakim Soria 1.6
Brandon Duckworth 0.5
Robinson Tejada 0.5
Horacio Ramirez 0.4
Jeff Fulchino 0.0
Josh Newman –0.1
Kip Wells –0.1
Jason Smith –0.1
Hideo Nomo –0.3
Tony Pena –1.7
Total: 0.7

The freely available talent is completely carried by Soria, as Dayton pretty much brought in only stiffs to fill out the roster and Tony Pena cratered. Free agent Jose Guillen was underwhelming despite his RBI total, but Gil continued to shine and lower cost free agents like Mugiel Olivo and Ron Mahay played well.

2009 Free Agents
Miguel Olivo 2.0
Gil Meche 1.5
Kyle Farnsworth 0.7
Willie Bloomquist 0.0
Juan Cruz 0.0
Yasuhika Yabuta –0.1
Doug Waechter –0.1
Ron Mahay –0.3
Jose Guillen –1.8

Total: 1.9

Total Cost: $42,100,000

2009 Freely Available Talent
Joakim Soria 1.8
Robinson Tejada 1.3
Sidney Ponson 0.7
Brayan Pena 0.4
Bruce Chen 0.1
Jamey Wright 0.1
Roman Colon –0.1
Ryan Freel –0.2
Anthony Lerew –0.2
Victor Marte –0.2
Josh Anderson –0.3
Tug Hulett –0.4
Luis Hernandez –0.4
Tony Pena –0.9
Total: 1.7

The free agents took a huge hit with Meche getting hurt, Farnsy sucking and Guillen almost dying. Meanwhile, Robinson Tejada turned out to be a gem, Sidney Ponson was much better than anyone expected and Brayan Pena was allowed to play once in awhile, with good results. The case for keeping money away from Dayton was getting much stronger.

2010 Free Agents
Jose Guillen 1.3
Scott Podsednik 0.6
Jason Kendall 0.5
Kyle Farnsworth 0.5
Rick Ankiel –0.1
Gil Meche –0.2
Willie Bloomquist –0.4
Total: 2.2

Total cost (half-season): $18,000,000

2010 Freely Available Talent
Wilson Betimet 1.0
Joakim Soria 0.9
Robinson Tejada 0.8
Bruce Chen 0.6
Kanekoa Texeira 0.1
Josh Rupe 0.0
Brayan Pena –0.2
Brad Thompson –0.2
Bryan Bullington –0.2
Anthony Lerew –0.3
John Parrish –0.4
Victor Marte –0.5
Luis Mendoza –0.6
Total: 1.0

Dayton’s eye for freely available talent was rejuvenated as pickups like Bruce Chen, Kanekoa Texeiera and Wilson Betimet looked brilliant. Meanwhile, the free agents didn’t horribly suck, but they didn’t do much other than serve as placeholders. Oh, and they showed the kids how to play the game "the right way."

To conclude, I think Dayton has an eye for freely available talent, and should probably utilize the strategy more often. I don't think his free agent strategy of 2010 - lower cost bargains that can start - is not a bad strategy provided that you don't have cheaper in-house options (which he did). Its also interesting to note that nearly all of the freely available talent that were useful at all were pitchers - either suggesting it is harder to find useful hitters on the cheap or that Dayton didn't give such players an opportunity in Kansas City. So perhaps Dayton should stick to cheapish free agent hitters like Miguel Olivo and Scott Podsednik, and leave the pitching staff to cycle through freely available talent looking for the next Robinson Tejeda.