Angels - Royals Series Preview: Don't Believe The Hype

by Freneau on Jul 2, 2010 6:00 AM EDT in Kansas City Royals News

Pitching Matchups:

Kyle Davies	Joe Saunders
Bruce Chen	Ervin Santana
Anthony Lerew	Joel Pineiro

A selection of stats on the Angel Starters we'll see:

	K/9	BB/9	GB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	xFIP
Joe Saunders	4.60	3.93	42.6%	.293	4.88	5.12	5.29
Ervin Santana	7.84	2.64	33.4%	.322	3.92	4.26	4.23
Joel Pineiro	5.87	2.16	54.4%	.302	4.23	3.95	3.88

According to the data on Stat Corner, the Royal bullpen has a tRa of 5.20, while the Angels' pen is at 4.72. That means the Angel bullpen, on the whole, has been better.

The Angels are 5th in the AL in runs per game, at 4.78. Of course, we'll hear all weekend that this is because they steal bases and hit and run and bunt and do the little things. The Angels hit more than a homer a game in June, and they're 5th in the league in that category. The Angels run a little, but their 55 team steals aren't particularly notable. They've been caught stealing 27 times, which is pretty bad. I know we're not supposed to let reality get in the way of the narrative, but when Ryan's going on and on about Angel-ball this weekend, just look at their lineup: they consistently play station to station players like Juan Rivera, Bobby Abreu, Dek Matsui, and Mike Napoli.

(These numbers are from before Friday night's game, by the way.)

wOBA	Name	Pos	PAs	Avg	OBP	SLG	BABIP
.374	Kevin Frandsen	3B	105	.340	.390	.443	.355
.369	Torii Hunter	OF	317	.290	.366	.507	.316
.359	Mike Napoli	1B/C	258	.252	.329	.496	.314
.348	Bobby Abreu	OF	344	.267	.360	.419	.317
.335	Hideki Matsui	DH	297	.259	.337	.422	.301
.316	Maicer Izturis	3B	118	.233	.322	.369	.247
.315	Erick Aybar	SS	312	.275	.337	.361	.325
.312	Juan Rivera	OF	258	.239	.302	.423	.249
	Scrappy Erstadson	b	u	n	t	s

Defensively, UZR has rated the Angels fairly harshly. Again, if you just look at the names on the roster, this wouldn't surprise you. However thanks to a Supreme Court decision in 2001, we're not allowed to talk about anything relating to the Twins or Angels objectively. So just lie back and listen to how awesome they are defensively.

	Pos	UZR
Wood	3B	3.4
Izturis	3B	2.0
Napoli	1B	-0.3
Aybar	SS	-0.9
Rivera	OF	-1.3
Hunter	OF	-2.0
Frandsen	3B	-4.2
Abreu	OF	-7.1
Kendrick	2B	-2.2

The fat dude who got injured (not listed) celebrating a home run was apparently one of their better defenders.

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Comments

I would like to see us do well this weekend

I’m tired of getting beat up by the AL West.

by Cookierojasaurus on Jul 2, 2010 6:29 AM EDT reply actions

Stat Corner says Guillén has the third highest wOBA

on the team, below only Billy and DDJ. That seems wacky to me.

"The bowler's Holding, the batsman's Willey" - Unfortunate cricket commentator

by Juancho on Jul 2, 2010 8:25 AM EDT reply actions

Scale of Bad Hitting

wOBA says Getz is the suckiest of all sucky Royals with at least 75 PA (so we can get Bloomy in).

Getz .298
Yuni .301
Kendall .304
Bloomy .305
Maier .311
Pods .318

According to bRAA, which takes sucky playing time into account:

Yuni -8.0
Kendall -7.6
Pods -4.5
Maier -4.0
Getz -3.5
Bloomy -2.0

There’s no denying it: the stats say that Yuni and Kendall clearly outsuck Pods, but that if Getz and Bloomy were given the opportunity to demonstrate their full suckitude, they might oversuck even Yuni. Maier gets a suckery discount due to his defensive ability.

"The bowler's Holding, the batsman's Willey" - Unfortunate cricket commentator

by Juancho on Jul 2, 2010 8:41 AM EDT reply actions

I'm really hoping

we can shut down abreu

seriously, though i fully expect a sweep this weekend, this is a team that we’ve had trouble with for quite some time, and the pitching matchups don’t look to favor us at all. but, we shall se.

BOOM YOSTED!

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jul 2, 2010 9:35 AM EDT reply actions

e

BOOM YOSTED!

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jul 2, 2010 9:35 AM EDT reply actions

What is a criteria to let go of him?

Just like Thompson?

by Yamfun Cheng Kamfun on Jul 2, 2010 9:49 AM EDT reply actions

I'd take their fat dude who got hurt on the HR trot

Morales is the Cuban we need in our infield.

by Fernando Vina School of Linguistics on Jul 2, 2010 11:03 AM EDT reply actions

Brazil is self-destructing right now

This is a pathetic display. The Dutch are blowing them out.

"The bowler's Holding, the batsman's Willey" - Unfortunate cricket commentator

by Juancho on Jul 2, 2010 11:36 AM EDT reply actions

LA has the semblence of a top team, ergo:

The Royals will either choke and get swept or semi-choke and lose 2 of 3 close games. That is the way it works. Whenever the Royals play in semi-pressure situations (i.e., against good teams and/or in phases when they are less than 10 games out of contention), they lose games because they are star struck. Look it up.

"Shot by my own men."

by StonewallPDS on Jul 2, 2010 11:49 AM EDT reply actions

Instead

I remember Royals performing well when they are supposed to be more likely to lose.
e.g. v.s. Reds, Strasburg, WSox

by Yamfun Cheng Kamfun on Jul 2, 2010 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions

ah, but they are currently only 9 games out

So that means they will lose about 7 of 9 on this road trip.

"Shot by my own men."

by StonewallPDS on Jul 2, 2010 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions

Stuff I want to add....

The Royals are 8th in runs scored and average 4.49 runs a game. So for all the talk we’re likely to hear about the Angels “playing the game the right way”, its only gotten them an extra .29 runs a game this year. Also, they’ve allowed exactly the same amount of runs as the Royals (386) so far. OK, I admit that the Angels have played 2 more games, but it’s not like their pitching staff has done that much better than ours.

In addition (hope I’m not pre-empting anyone else’s post), the 2nd game of the series will be the Royals’ 81st game of the year. So, we’ll (already/finally???) be at the season’s halfway point. Our recent records after 81 games are:

2004 – 29-52
2005 – 26-55
2006 – 27-54
2007 – 34-47
2008 – 37-44
2009 – 35-46
2010 – 34-45 (through 79 games)

Some of the names have changed from 2007 to now, but the results are very similar.

Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau

by aHorseWithNoName on Jul 2, 2010 12:37 PM EDT reply actions

After further review...

We’re actually tied for 7th in runs scored with Toronto, and the Jays have played 1 more game (so our average runs scored is actually a touch higher).

Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau

by aHorseWithNoName on Jul 2, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions

This is depressing as hell.

2004 – 29-52
2005 – 26-55
2006 – 27-54
2007 – 34-47
2008 – 37-44
2009 – 35-46
2010 – 34-45 (through 79 games)

by Black and Gold on Jul 2, 2010 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions

I know

After the initial “bump” from 06 to 07, the Process has largely been spinning its wheels – at least at the Major League level. I’m all for patience, but we’ve been watching the same show for 4 years now (different actors but same plotline).

I guess the silver lining is that we haven’t gotten any worse? That’s probably more like tin foil lining….

Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau

by aHorseWithNoName on Jul 2, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions