Royals Top Prospects: ETA to Majors

by kcdc1 on Jul 20, 2010 12:11 PM EDT

The MLB team is still boring.

With Moustakas, Hosmer, Montgomery, Lamb, Dwyer and Myers, the Royals have 6 players that are consensus Top 50 prospects (and if each has a second half that resembles their first half, they could easily all wind up in the Top 25). Though even elite prospects sometimes fail, each of these players is more likely than not to contribute at the MLB level. With these 6 elite prospects leading the farm system and considerable depth following, it's safe to say that younger Royals teams are ahead. The wins may or may not ever come around, but a younger team should at least be more fun to follow.

So when might this crop of younger talent reshape the MLB team, and what sort of contribution should we expect from them in their early years? Here are some guesses (in order of arrival):

Moustakas: Debuts with the MLB club in June 2011 after his service time is sufficiently gamed. Shows little patience early in his careeer, resulting in few walks, but compensates for the lack of walks with excellent bat speed that suppresses his strike out numbers. Low strikeout totals allow him to hit for good average given his power stroke. Will display 15-20 HR power for his first couple years, but could improve on those totals if he's able to become more patient at the plate.

Rookie line: .270/.315/.440

Montgomery: Finishes 2010 healthy and starts 2011 in AAA. Gets a lot of press in Spring Training and rumors suggest he may start the season in the Majors. Heads to AAA to game his service time till June. Finds immediate success when he is called up, striking out 6.5 batters per 9 innings while walking only 3. In 200 professional innings to date, Monty's given up a grand total of 4 HRs. He'll continue to enjoy (reduced) success at the MLB level in limiting HRs, and will finish 2011 as the Royals most promising rookie.

Rookie line: 6.5 K/9, 3 BB/9, 4.0 FIP

Hosmer: Begins 2011 in Omaha with AAA club and earns promotion to Kansas City in August 2011a couple months ahead of his 22nd birthday. Hosmer shows natural patience at the plate, and despite having a slightly longer swing is able to keep his strikeout numbers relatively low with excellent bat control and hitting to all fields. Will have natural power, but won't match Moustakas's HR totals initially. Will combine patience with line-drive stroke and limited strikeouts to both hit for good average and churn out high walk rates. Could show Billy Butler-like development at the plate.

Rookie line: .280/.340/.440

Dwyer: Finishes 2010 with the AA club and begins 2011 in Omaha. Continues to improve command and earns call-up in September of 2011. Moore decides the time is right to make a run in 2012, and calls up Dwyer from AAA when the schedule necessitates a 5th starter rather than gaming service time. Piles up strikeouts in his rookie season with heat from the left side, but is less successful than teammate Montgomery in limiting walks.

Rookie line: 6.5 K/9, 4 BB/9, 4.5 FIP

Lamb: Earns late-season promotion to AA in 2010, and spends the greater half of 2011 in NWA before being promoted to AAA. Begins 2012 in Omaha, and reaches the Majors in July when injury or underperformance opens a spot for him in the starting rotation, conveniently gaming his service time. Lamb enjoys young-Greinke-esque success in his rookie season with promising strikeout numbers but even better walk prevention.

Rookie line: 6.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 4.3 FIP

Myers: Finishes 2010 in High-A. Sticking at catcher delays his advancement through the system, and he spends all of 2011 in AA despite having the best bat in the system. Begins 2012 in AAA, and earns call-up to the MLB team in August as the team tries to stay in the playoff hunt. Bat is immediately a great asset at the catching position, and he shows good power and plate discipline upon arrival owing to his slowed advancement through the minor leagues.

Rookie line: .275/.330/.440

Whew, that took a while.....I wouldn't count on any of those things to happen.....Anyway, it's more fun to think about than Pods's caught stealing numbers piling up. When do you think these players will hit the MLB scene and what kind of numbers do you think they'll put up when they arrive?

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If Hosmer's promoted in August 2011

Where are Butler and Kila?

by kcdc1 on Jul 20, 2010 12:22 PM EDT reply actions

Here's the thing

once Hosmer’s ready, Kila sort of doesn’t matter. I love the guy, and I wish he’d been given a chance… but the Kila problem isn’t that anyone thinks Kila’s a long-term answer. It’s that he’s a better option NOW than one we’re using NOW.

I am now channeling Will McDonald's optimism.

by jonfmorse on Jul 21, 2010 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions

and if Kila is brought up and does hit NOW

then if Hosmer’s ready in 2012, Kila might actually have some trade value if there isn’t a place for him to play.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Jul 21, 2010 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions

Agreed

I’m feeling increasingly confident that some team will agree to take Guillen off our hands and pay a little bit of his salary. He projects to be a league average hitter the rest of the way, and his defense in the OF hasn’t been nearly as bad as in past years. He’s worth a couple million dollars and a fringe prospect to a contender with a hole at DH or OF. Moore needs to get this done soon in order to start evaluating Kila’s MLB value. There really is a bit of a rush on the evaluation now that Kila’s would-be replacement is already raking in AA.

by kcdc1 on Jul 21, 2010 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions

I wish I had your optimism.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jul 21, 2010 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions

Guillen's line in the month of July is

.256/.319/.371 for an OPS of .691. Unfortunately, as I have just shown, this information is freely available to other baseball teams.

Guillen is highly unlikely to be going anywhere, except to the DL for a mysterious, general malady once the waiver trade deadline has passed.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 21, 2010 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions

A 20 sample isn't particularly meaningful

ZiPS has him hitting .269/.327/.435 the rest of the season which would make him a league average hitter. His UZR so far this year is actually in positive territory, and while 3 months of UZR isn’t particularly meaningful, it’s at least consistent with a general opinion that he’s playing better defense in the OF this year. He seems like he’s a below average defender in a corner outfield spot rather than the historically bad defender he was with his leg injuries and weight problems in the last two years. A league average bat with below average defense in a corner outfield spot isn’t exactly a hot commodity, but he can make some team better and he can be had cheaply, so I think it’ll happen.

by kcdc1 on Jul 21, 2010 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Contenders aren't looking for

a “league average hitter” with not “historically bad” defense in a corner OF spot. I’m very curious as to which team, exactly, would be made better by adding Guillen (over other available players at the same position).

I’d love to see Jose gone, but I’d put the odds of another team offering anything of value for him at less than 5%.

"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae

"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie

by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 21, 2010 9:37 PM EDT up reply actions

I believe the Giants and Padres have been linked

And no, they won’t offer anything of value. They’ll pick up $2M of his remaining $6M salary and send us a fringe prospect.

by kcdc1 on Jul 21, 2010 9:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Guillen won't be moved until August

after he clears waivers… and even then its a coin toss as to whether anyone will take him… Maybe Kenny Williams in his infinite wisdom will take him on after losing out on Dunn/Fielder…

by billski8 on Jul 21, 2010 11:29 PM EDT up reply actions

Getting something back would be best

But maybe some dumb team will try to block the waivers by claiming him?

by AxDxMx on Jul 25, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions

I really don't think that's the general opinion...more of a front office talking point trying to convince teams he can play out there.

it’s at least consistent with a general opinion that he’s playing better defense in the OF this year

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jul 21, 2010 11:34 PM EDT up reply actions

No, I've read and heard in multiple places

as well as seen with my own eyes that he’s moving better this year in the OF this year than he was in the last 2 years. Remember, the last 2 years he was dealing with weight problems as well as playing through serious leg injuries. I’m not saying he’s a plus defender now. He’s presently below average. He just couldn’t run at all the last two years and now he can run slowly. If your team is in contention, but doesn’t have a bat at all in a corner outfield spot (Padres), and doesn’t want to give up much in the way of prospects or money (Padres), Guillen could be an answer. We’ll see what happens, but I think Royals fans have been hating on Guillen for so long that they can’t fully see that he’s been an okay player this year, and that if you take his ridiculous contract out of the picture (which a trade would do because the Royals would pick up most of the tab), he’s an asset.

by kcdc1 on Jul 22, 2010 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions

And they're all linked back to front office/Yost quotes.

He’s been flat out awful out there in his few innings.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jul 22, 2010 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions

And I don't want to turn this into a can Jose play defense or not thread.

But it has been blatantly obvious that the dude can’t move or play the field.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jul 22, 2010 9:23 AM EDT up reply actions

No.....they really aren't

I don’t know why you’re insisting that relatively healthy thinner Jose Guillen can’t run faster than legless fat Jose Guillen…..

Guillen’s UZR last year was -17.6. This year it’s +1.4. The samples are small, so the confidence intervals around those numbers will be very large, but that’s a 20-point swing. He’s not the same defender this year that he was last year. Does someone know how to work out standard deviation for UZR with X sample size? I’m guessing that even with the tiny sample sizes we have, the numbers will say with 90% certainty that he’s playing better defense this year.

by kcdc1 on Jul 22, 2010 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions

Because I've seen at least 4 plays this year that should have been made

easily but Guillen didn’t come close to making them. Maybe that’s falling into the “I trust my eyes” too much but compared to 50ish innings of UZR, I’ll go with my eyes.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jul 22, 2010 10:23 AM EDT up reply actions

Ok, 147 innings.

hasn’t been better than -5 in the last 3 years in right field. I’ll trust my eyes that tell me he can’t play the field still.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jul 22, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions

You understand that I'm not saying he's a good defender, right?

Just that he’s not the statue that he was last year?

by kcdc1 on Jul 22, 2010 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions

Right. And I'm just pointing out that he's still a statue compared to the average right fielder

so his trade value as a fielder is still negative.

Hopefully I’m wrong.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jul 22, 2010 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions

Well, duh.

My point was that the comment I was responding to sort of implied “where are we going to play all three of these guys at the same time?” It’s a null question; once Hosmer’s ready, Kila’s expendable. Of course it would be nice if he actually had some value to someone else at that point…

I am now channeling Will McDonald's optimism.

by jonfmorse on Jul 22, 2010 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions

can't really say anything is wrong, but it is fun to speculate

If I had to guess, Moustakas will get a chance at the opening day roster in 2011 if he can do well (but probably won’t do as well in AAA as he did in AA). He probably will start in AAA and earn a call-up due to injury or to game the service time system. June seems reasonable. As for his numbers, I expect him to be Guillen-ish to begin with, but with more power. Probably a .260/.310/.480 line, but with potential to become more patient.

Hosmer’s position complicates matters. The Royals indicate that Ka’aihue is part of their plans at some point, but haven’t ever shown it. Presumably, Guillen is blocking him, and Kila will come up after a Guillen trade this season or after the season when his contract is up (barring a dumb Dayton decision to re-sign Guillen). Kila would then get 2011 and 2012 to show his stuff. If he falters, Hosmer has his job. Another possibility is to dangle Kila to teams in need of some pop or a 1B after he debuts in 2011. Hosmer would then be ready or not blocked. September 2011 or sometime in 2012 seem like his likely dates. I see him as somewhere between Lyle Overbay and Colby Rasmus as a hitter. Uses all fields, great patience, and displays big power at times but is content to hit for doubles and average. I see a .300/.375/.460 line for him at his peak, but because of the long swing may take a little longer to get there.

Montgomery’s injury this year has really slowed down his progress, but he may get a chance at the tail end of 2011, provided he succeeds in AAA and doesn’t have more injuries. He should succeed when he arrives. If not in 2011, certainly in 2012.

Dwyer will probably finish this year in AA as you say, and will probably need a full year, maybe more in AAA. His stuff is not as awesome as that of Montgomery or Lamb, but he has some of the instincts and command that are needed. I’d guess 2012 at the earliest for Dwyer. I also suspect he may be in for a rude awakening when he gets to the majors as far as his stuff is concerned.

Lamb is shooting through the system this year and will probably stay in AA for the rest of this season. He will start next year in AA or AAA based on his success in spring training, but should continue his trek, to a potential September call up in 2011 and a certain full debut in 2012.

As for Myers, I think you nailed it (if he stays at catcher). If the Royals like Manny Pina’s defense as much as they’ve discussed, and his hitting continues to progress (he’s had a good year in AA and is off to a good start in AAA), he may hold down the catcher spot ahead of Myers, perhaps leading to a position change due to his defense. If that happens, Myers may be up by the end of 2011 as an outfielder or in 2012. Otherwise, I think it is late 2012 or even 2013 before Myers sees the big leagues. His hitting will be ready whenever he gets that call. I’m guessing .280/.375/.450 at his peak, with some adjustment time for his power to develop.

Love the post. Good topic.

Todd Haley's kids know more swear words than I do.

by kcisbetterthanstlateverything on Jul 20, 2010 12:28 PM EDT reply actions

I believe Dwyer actually has the best velocity of the 3 lefties

but also has the shakiest control. My sense is that Monty and Lamb project as #1/2 starters-type while Dwyer projects as a #3-type.

by kcdc1 on Jul 20, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Optimistic View but sounds good

Myers seems to move pretty quickly… I think it all depends on how he takes to catching and if he needs a position change…

It will be interesting to see how prospects netted at the deadline and Colon work into the mix.

I think the important thing to do is to continue to invest in the farm system every year and not just be satisfied with seeing what this “Golden Generation” can do together… That way when Butler’s arbitration years come up we have options in the minors if he decides to walk… I hope Greinke stays a lifetime Royal personally

by billski8 on Jul 20, 2010 12:31 PM EDT reply actions

I like it.

That’s probably an optimistic vision, but I don’t think it is overly optimistic.

by AxDxMx on Jul 20, 2010 12:46 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah, it's definitely optimistic

Out of the 6, one will get injured, one will suck, a couple will be decent but won’t live up to the hype, and we might get one or two marquee players.

Still, I think all of the projections are solid possibilities.

by kcdc1 on Jul 20, 2010 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions

It sure is fun to dream...

A few objections: I doubt that Lamb will best Greinke’s BB rate. Greinke’s BB rate in his age-19 year at A+/AA was 1.2/9 while Lamb’s BB rate in his age-19 year at A-/A+ is 2.8/9.

I’m under the impression that Dwyer’s stuff is quite good. Maybe even better than Lamb’s.

At least a couple of these guys will take steps backwards during the next two seasons. Of course, trying to guess which of them struggle would be, well, a guess. Even if each of these guys is 80% likely to succeed there’s only a 25% likelihood that they all succeed.

by billexgordler on Jul 20, 2010 12:58 PM EDT reply actions

Greinke's BB/9 was 1.61 in his rookie year

I don’t have Lamb coming close to that.

Also, Greinke was a different pitcher during his first couple professional seasons than he is now. He didn’t throw as hard, he didn’t strike out as many, and he walked very very few.

by kcdc1 on Jul 20, 2010 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Ah...

So you were saying that Lamb improves his own BB/9, not that he improves on Young-Greinke’s BB/9. Got it. Yeah, I’ll agree with that..

by billexgordler on Jul 20, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions

Oh, I see the confusion

I meant Lamb will show walk prevention that’s even better than his strikeout numbers. I could make it less confusing, but I’m sleepy.

by kcdc1 on Jul 20, 2010 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions

We're in contention in 2012?

YES!

by Dadunca on Jul 20, 2010 12:59 PM EDT reply actions

I think we should...

resign DeJesus and keep Soria while we are at it. I just hope Ka’aihue is the real deal and Myers becomes ready by the start of 2012.

Starting Rotation: Greinke, Montgomery, Crow, Hoeceaver, Lamb
MR: Dwyer, Duffy, Tejeda, Wood, Melville, (player from Callaspo trade)
CL: Soria
Lineup…
1. DeJesus (LF)
2. Hosmer (RF)
3. Butler (DH)
4. Mustakis (3B)
5. Ka’aihue (1B)
6. Myers (CA)
7. Aviles (2B)
8. Colon (SS)
9. Lough (CF)

Depth: Pina, Betemit, Giavotella, D Robbinson

*Of course all of these guys are bound to come out of the minors as instant stars and there is absolutely nothing that could go wrong with this plan.

by I_Bleed_Red. on Jul 20, 2010 1:59 PM EDT reply actions

no big deal, but just so you know how to spell the names correctly

Luke Hochevar
Mike Moustakas

The Alex Gordon era - www.number4thesmirk.com

by CollininCalifornia on Jul 20, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah...

sorry, that was lazy on my part.

by I_Bleed_Red. on Jul 20, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions

good post

but, since this IS the royals and these are still prospects, at least one guy and maybe two will get hurt, one or two will suck, one will be a solid major leaguer and one will be a star…in short, not enough to fill out a competitive major league roster.

there are still holes at 2B, SS, CF, C and at least 3 rotation spots:

C TBD
1B Butler
2B TBD/Aviles
SS TBD
3B Stocky/Bert
LF Gordon
CF TBD
RF Hosmer?
DH Kaaihue/Hosmer/TBD

SP Greinke
SP Monty/Lamb
SP Lamb/Dwyer/Hochevar/TBD
SP Hochevar/Dwyer/TBD
SP TBD

we’ve got to hope that at least one or two guys who are currently in the minors bring us a pleasant surprise, maybe Manny Pina, Lough, Parraz, Robinson, Crow, Bianchi, Gio…we’ve also got to make a smart trade or two and add in a couple of free agents…there’s still a LONG way to go.

BOOM YOSTED!

by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jul 21, 2010 12:03 AM EDT reply actions

My guess

Is that you can fill in C. Colon at SS. I imagine he’ll spend all of this year in Wilmington and all of next year at NWA, and if he has done well at NWA, the starting SS job will probably be his to lose in 2012 ST (unless he turns out to be a complete butcher at SS in the minors, or the Royals exercise Yuni’s option, which I sadly kind of expect to happen).

by DarthYoshi on Jul 21, 2010 7:00 AM EDT up reply actions

See my comment above:

“Yeah, it’s definitely optimistic.

Out of the 6, one will get injured, one will suck, a couple will be decent but won’t live up to the hype, and we might get one or two marquee players."

by kcdc1 on Jul 21, 2010 7:52 AM EDT up reply actions