A bold idea to really jumpstart the Royals rebuild
by loyal2sdad on Jul 26, 2010 1:30 PM EDT
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I've been thinking of this for a while - there are only 3 assets the Royals can really trade that will actually provide the type of prospect haul to substantially increase the odds that the current bumper crop growing in the Royals minors will, after being supplemented by these trades, be so overwhelming that they could possibly render Moore's poor ML evaluations moot. Here we go:
Step 1: Greinke, Soria, Butler are the 3 assets. Keep Greinke and Soria, trade Butler. Butler should produce a nice haul of 3 or 4 prospects, with at least 1 (if not 2) Grade A or A-
Step 2: Bring Kila up to play 1B for the rest of 2010 and all of 2011. After he rakes, trade him for a similar haul of 3 or 4 prospects. By this time, Hosmer will be ready for 1B (2012)
Step 3: Use some of the savings from Butler's arb year savings to extend Greinke for another 2-3 years (thru 2014 or 2015)
With the wave of pitching prospects, all we need is for one of them to turn into another #1 like Greinke, then you have the 1-2 pitching punch that seems to characterize championship clubs. The rest of the rotation could easily be well above the rest of baseball's 3 thru 5 guys. Soria still manning the closer role. Offense led by Moose and Hosmer, with Myers somewhere in the lineup, Colon and Giavatella revamping the MI.
It is painful to say trade Butler - but Moore needs to do something ballsy. Hosmer looks like a LH version of Butler, but with better plate discipline and much better athleticism. Easily could project to be a better player than Butler (and I LIKE Butler...)
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I dont know if I could live without Billy's radio commercials
Not sure that Billy, who isn’t exactly an elite 1B, would net us as much as may be though. Kila would certainly not get as much, as he is older by quite a bit (or will be next year).
Trading Billy would save us money, and would pave the way for Clint Robinson (!!!!!), but I’m not sure we’d get value from trading the current face of our team.
The gamble is
that Butler is moved now, and that allows Kila to play. Gamble being that Kila hits the ground running, with OBP of about 390 and SLG of about 475 from now until the end of 2011. Considering he would then be 27, and would be non-arb for another 2 years, with 5 more years before FA, his value would actually be fine.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
I think Billy is the player you might get the least for
and yet may have the largest upside. If he finds his power stroke, he could easily start hitting 35+ homers per year. Some of those doubles have to convert right?
That's why he is tradeable
I certainly think Butler could find a power stroke, to some extent. Probably has 30 HR potential, anyway.
I’m just suggesting what good rebuilding teams do – identify which minor leaguers are about to supplant an existing regular, and move that regular while his value is high. Butler’s value is high right now precisely because he is still only 24 and many can see he could project to develop 30 HR power.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
In that case, we have so many pitchers, Greinke and Soria should be tradeable too
Likely we’ll have at least 1 ace come out of what we have, and the failures we can try in the bullpen.
Greinke is not likely to want to sign an extension
If he sees our best players being dealt off.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Greinke is under contract
and the Royals would have plenty of time to take positive steps forward in re-signing him, long term.
The Royals don’t need Butler as much as they need Soria and Greinke.
Soria and Greinke are more of a foundation.
Butler has several potential replacements already in place.
I would argue that Butler for more pitching or a top end OF prospect would serve the Royals better for the 2012 target.
That's a valid argument, Retro
But remember, he is signed thru 2012 – and many of the current bumper crop should be here for that season, and the team could easily be over 500 that year, making an extension quite possible
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
The problem is
that the Royals will have to start working on an extension either before or during the 2012 season. If it doesn’t look like Zack will stick around for any reasonable amount of money, then they’ll have to trade him off by the deadline in 2012. I doubt that the Royals will have shown enough substantive success (i.e. wins and losses) by then to the point that it convinces Zack to stay.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 26, 2010 2:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Remember, everyone
the key to my plan is to allow Kila enough playing time to prove he is a legit ML firstbaseman, thus able to produce even more assets for the team via another trade.
The pressing issue is Kila needs to do this in time to make room for Hosmer, who is coming FAST, IMHO, and arguably could be the real hitting stud we have been waiting for (better than Butler)
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
Although I think it's clear that Butler won't net us a "haul"
The plan to allocate cash Zack is a great one. Still, you could DFA Guillen and do the same thing for Kila without trading Butler. And you can save money by promoting within rather than offering all these rinky-dink FA deals.
Yeah
While I like Kila, he is not the type of player for whom a team should move better players to make room. Most of the projection systems only project him as 1.5 to 2.5 WAR player, and the younger Butler is already better than that. Kila certainly deserves a shot, but as Dudunca said, the Royals can do that by cutting ties with Guillen and letting Kila DH the rest of this season and next year.
Agreed on Kila,
Also, how much would it cost to extend Zack? He’ll get 13.5 per for the remainder of his contract, and if he’ll extend at 17 per, it will not be hard to come up with that kind of money. You’re only lacking 3.5 mil. That’s the cost of Rick Ankiel. 20 per? We got that coming off the books in relievers this year.
And I know other guys are getting raises too, but, if you want to, you can find the cash.
$20 million per year based on what other top pitchers have got for their free agent years
CC got $23 million. Halladay, Verlander, and Felix all got around $20 million.
Butler is only under club control for one more year than Greinke. Theoretically, a team could afford to pay Greinke market value and keep Butler, but that team would need a GM who is good at spending money. The current Royals GM is not.
Not really the question
While moving Butler gives Kila the 1B spot for now, the main purpose, as L2D pointed out, is to clear 1B for Hosmer—both Butler (now) and Kila (soon) are turned for other prospects. Kila’s trade value over the next 1 1/2 years goes up if he shows he’s a capable MLB 1B rather than just a DH even if the bat does play.
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Jul 26, 2010 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions
1B is already clear for Hosmer, as DH is open
When he is ready, Butler moves to DH. The same thing can be accomplished by just jettisoning Guillen, playing Kila at DH with some games switching with Butler at 1B until Hosmer is ready, and then moving Butler to DH (where he likely will end up anyway). No one is going to trade for Kila’s glove — his bat will set his trade value. And teams already have years and years of scouting reports on his defense in the minors.
Trading a better player to see if a lesser player can marginally improve his trade value is a bad idea.
by Gopherballs on Jul 27, 2010 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
In a vacuum, sure
And it’s not “just” to see if Kila can improve his trade value, but to maximize the value of three players who will be trying to fill two roster spots. The depth at the position would make the loss of Butler tolerable for a good return, and the right return would make the dropoff in talent from Billy to Kila a non-issue. If you can get an outfield prospect who winds up hitting like Billy but, you know, plays the outfield, means a net positive and thus, not a bad idea. I don’t know if Billy is worth such a player and I wouldn’t trade him just anything, but if he was, its a gain: Hosmer takes first, Kila is the DH, and the OF who hits as well as Billy plays RF, thus replacing Mitch Maier. While maybe just a fantasy, that’s a trade worth making.
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Jul 29, 2010 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I think Zack should go first.
Zack will not sign an extension because he knows that the Yankees, RSox, and several teams are just waiting to offer him more money than he could imagine. We need to trade him now for four or five top of line prospects. Would SF trade Posey and a couple of others for him? How about Baltimore and a Weiters deal? The time is now to sell and make our minor league system even stronger. I agree with Dun that we should dump Guillen and bring K. up to DH for the rest of the season. That probably won’t happen now because of G’s injured hammy.
Zack won't sign in NY, Boston or with the Cubs.
Too much pressure. You’ll be competing against Atlanta, Tampa and maybe the Angels. If we treat him right (and I don’t know that we have), he’ll stay here.
Well, you're probably right.
But it’s possible that you could resign him and he’d be a very valuable part of a winning team, not that we plan to win anything ever.
I've thought that Tampa
would be a great fit for Butler at this trade deadline. They are looking for a right handed bat, and they are on a budget. I’d try to get Hellickson out of Butler. Maybe it doesn’t work but maybe it does.
Why would he fit for Tampa?: Butler can DH for Tampa this year, is a minimum salary player (at least for this year), and also helps them in that he could be their 1B long term. Tampa is facing both Carlos Pena and Carl Crawford becoming free agents this year and no way to retain both of them. Between them they make over $20m. For that same salary and without increasing payroll, they could retain Crawford and have Butler at 1B next year.
Why would KC do this?: Kila/Clint/Hosmer are there to play 1B for the next few years and it would give you a true #2 behind Zack. Imagine filling Monty, Lamb, etc behind those 2 in the coming years.
Butler doesn’t fit with too many teams though due to his lack of position, but he could be a fit in Tampa. Maybe it’s dreaming, but I’d give it a shot with some of the names that Tampa is looking at for their post season run, and budget this year.
To be fair
Butler’s defense at 1B has been right about average this year.
That deal certainly does make sense. I imagine we could get one of their other young starters instead if they interested us more.
As Someone Recently
Noted, Butler does all the little things wrong at 1B. Thinking positively, this could mean he’ll improve if he applies himself.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 26, 2010 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Im just going off the defensive metrics
Which rate him about (or slightly above) average this year, which is an improvement from the past.
I concede that it is a bit odd to make a SP the centerpiece of your contention plans,
Most teams would opt to build around a stud SS or stud CF, or stud C. Just think that, given Moore’s constant chant about pitching and defense, this might be the way he wants to build it.
After all, Greinke produced about the same WAR as Pujols last year, right? I get that he won’t do that every year – but he might consistently produce about the same war as a position player ranked, say 10th or so in all of MLB. In addition, he is past the injury nexis, and as I recall, ranks very low in injury risk according to most experts who analyze mechanics.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
1st two div titles in 91 and 92...before maddux.
We have met the enemy, and he is us.
by Royal Kingdom on Jul 26, 2010 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
I like your idea
I’m not sure Kila has to supplant Billy in order for it to work, though. I mean, we don’t really have a DH, right? Seems like a better role for him to slip into (or Butler to slip into, with Kila at 1B)
batter nine you sucky
There's Plenty Of
Room for both to play 1B/DH when Hoagy’s gone. That is, if we don’t wind up with Frenchy. Then all bets are off.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 26, 2010 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions
No need for a closer on this team
I would keep Butler and Greinke. Soria has to go. We have a great farm system at the moment, but we have holes to fill. I try to land a C Prospect and a CF guy. I still look at moving DeJesus in the off season for the right deal.
I will AGAIN post my beloved trade plan (just hoping that Dayton will log in). The Three Team Deal:
We lose Soria, Guillen and Farnesworth
Yankees lose CF Gardner, C Jesus Montero, RHP David Phelps, RHP Ivan Nova, 2B Jimmy Paredes and Joba Chamberlain.
Phillies lose: Jason Werth and RHP Austin Hyatt.
We get CF Gardner, C Jesus Montero, RHP David Phelps, RHP Ivan Nova, RHP Austin Hyatt and 2B Jimmy Paredes
Yanks Get Soria, Guillen and Werth. Engrave their name or the trophy for 2010 now!!
Phillies get Farnsworth and Joba Chamberlain
For the rest of 2010 and into 2011:
CF Gardner
2B Aviles (we need to know about him)
1B/DH Butler
DH/1b Kila (we need to know)
3B Betemit
RF Gordon (we need to know)
LF Pods
C Kendal
SS Betancourt
1-Greinke
2-O’Sullivan
3-Chen (Replace with Meche after dl)
4-Phelps
5- Bannister (Replace with Hoechaver)
Move Davies to long relief. Call up B. Hardy, let he and Tejada fight it out for closing
A better team today and a much better team in the future.
The Yankees have absolutely no need for Guillen
See Thames, Marcus. His inclusion in any trade with them would subtract, rather than add, value.
And I find your expected return for Soria, Guillen, and Farnsworth to be as optimistic as a land that is solely inhabited by puppy dogs, rainbows, and ice cream. I salute your enthusiasm and specificity, however.
P.S. Why is Brandon Belt not involved in this trade?
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 26, 2010 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
It
Would be good to have Guillen and Thames. Spot starts in the OF for Thames with Guillen Dhing. Guillen does not suck!!!
To sell to a Yankee, you have to think like a Yankee and stop thinking like a Royal. The only part of this deal that is iffy is Joba and the Phillies return, but Werth has had a off year and is a rental player- so they are not going to rope the moon with Werth.
Not to argue with you, but
So is Farnsworth, who is part of the Phillies return. In what capacity has Werth had an off year? His numbers (sans HR) are all as good or better. He’s already hit more doubles than he did all of last year. Do you mean on defense? I haven’t heard that.
Well
HR’s,RBI’s and SB’s all down a lot. Truth is he is a rental that will likely end up in New York next season anyway. They want Dom Brown up and playing and they need relief help. May be a stretch, may need a prospect going back to Philly, but this trade makes a lot of sense for all teams.
Ok, that's true
Counting stats are down. I still wouldn’t call it a “down year”. And yes, it would be a rental, but you’re just not going to get Werth for another, less valuable, rental and a guy that really IS having a down year.
Anyway, I gotta know, what does it mean “to think like a Yankee”?
What is it going to be?
This is an example Yankee thinking………
http://www.truveo.com/search?query=Deion Jerry Jones Commercial&flv=1#Deion%20Jerry%20Jones%20Commercial%20
Rivera or Soria??
Both!!!!
Neither of those teams would take that deal
"The bowler's Holding, the batsman's Willey" - Unfortunate cricket commentator
I didn't say Guillen sucks
I said that he offers almost nothing for the Yankees. Thames and Guillen are both RH hitters, with bad-to-horrible OF defense, with no discernable difference in splits against RH/LH pitching, and who both have almost idential career lines. Not even the Yankees are interested in taking up roster spots and payroll for identical players.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 26, 2010 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions
No
Nick Johnson is nothing. Guillen is something!! Royal thinking
If Johnson is healthy, he's a helluva lot more
than Guillen. Johnson’s career line is .270/.401/.443. (.370 wOBA) Plus, he’s a left-handed batter.
Granted, Johnson’s health always seems to be an issue, but there are other, better, pure hitters (i.e. DH-types) available that I have to think NY would rather have. For example, Adam LaRoche, Adam Dunn, etc.
I have no idea what “Royal thinking” means. The way you are applying it to my posts, it seems to mean “having common sense when it comes to player acquisitions.”
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 26, 2010 6:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Royal thinking vs. Yankee thinking
It is simple if you think about it. While we all have been less than happy with our Guillen return, a team like the Yanks would see Guillen differently. We signed Guillen to play RF everyday and hit 30 bombs a year. They would “take” Guillen to fix a short term problem. There was hope that Guillen would be one of our top players. The Yankees might see him as there 15-20th best guy that they only need for a few months.
Also, The Yankees have the luxury of trading off prospects. Their prospects get blocked by the countless FA signings of all the elite players. What would they care if they moved a guy like AAA RHP David Phelps. Just when will he break into that rotation?? The Royals would never trade a high level prospect, that is not what small market teams do.
All I really mean is don’t say the Yankees wouldn’t do something, because the Royals wouldn’t do it!!!
That's what I've been asking from the beginning:
Why would the Yankees want to give up anything of value for Jose Guillen, who is a player that they already have…except cheaper? What is the “short term problem” that Guillen would allegedly solve? And why would he be a better solution to this mystery problem than one of the other available guys that I mentioned?
And sure, they can better afford to pawn off their prospects than other teams can, but that doesn’t mean they need or want to give up prospects for Guillen when they could make a deal for LaRoche, or Dunn, or another LH bat.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 26, 2010 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Rec'd for this. Just awesome.
Royal thinking vs. Yankee thinking
It is simple if you think about it.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
The Phillies would trade Werth
and get nothing but two crappy relievers. You know their GM isn’t Dayton Moore, right?
you know who their GM is, right?
that team would be hilariously bad if he hadn’t inherited an awesome team.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
Bold Idea
Grienke to Philly for: Dominic Brown, Anthony Gose, Trevor May, Sebastian Valle
Soria to NYY for: Jesus Montero, Zack McAllister, Ivan Nova, Corban Joseph
Butler to Tampa for: Desmond Jennings
That was fun
After tonight's 6 run outburst in the 1st against Greinke
that asking price is probably too high. We’d be lucky to get Francoeur for him now.
as much as i'd hate to do it
i almost think you’ve got to pull off at least one of these deals…next year has the potential to be an absolute trainwreck of a season if you look at our roster and what’s coming back:
C Kendall
1B Butler
2B Aviles/Getz
SS Yunitard
3B Betemit
LF Gordon
CF Maier
RF DeJesus
DH Kaaihue
and here’s where it getz really scary:
SP candidates:
Greinke
Hooch (hurt)
Meche (hurt)
Bannister (sucks)
Davies (sucks)
Chen (sucks)
Lerew (sucks balls)
O’Sullivan (???-who knows)
Bullpen:
TBD Jetsam
TBD Flotsam
Tejeda
Coleman
Hughes/Wood/TBD LOOGY
Soria
still NO rookies of note (Kaaihue doesn’t really count IMO)…several players still a year or two off IF they continue progressing, and then who knows if/when they will contribute meaningfully to the team?
BOOM YOSTED!
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Jul 26, 2010 11:18 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Unless the wheels come off in Omaha
Moose is at 3B by June or maybe even breaking camp with the big team; I don’t think Moore is that worried about 6-7 years from now, he’s playing for 2-3 tops, so he may not try to game Moose’s clock by waiting.
Banny (whom we love) and Davies (whome we don’t) have to go. They’re the kind of guys who will make too much money in arb. for the return they give (Davies already does). The back of the rotation has got to be O’Sullivan types (cheap team control guys), especially if saving cash to re-extend Zack.
Even with the injury, if DDJ can still be a class B FA, I don’t think Dayton exercises the option. Plus, I’m almost as certain Pods is getting resigned, especially if Ned returns. They absolutely love that guy.
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Jul 26, 2010 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Gotta trade Soria.
And after tonight, I’ve given up hope for the next two years. Gotta trade Grienke too… between the two, you end up with 4 stud prospects. That’s 4 possible MLB starters and a few in between prospects. It gives us the best chance.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
I say we throw all our money at Cliff Lee
And then watch the Yankees offer more
OT: What ever happened to loyal2theroyals?
I find it interesting that you based your name off of hers and then she never posts anything. The reference in missing.
maybe she's like me
I’m so damn sick of our owner/GM tandem that I had to go on sabbatical from the Royals again. I’ve been very scarce this year both on this board as well as a game viewer. Groan. It is so frustrating being a fan of this team. I got excited again for a few years there only to be kicked in the head again.
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