Regarding Johnny Giavotella
by MinnesotaRoyal on Jul 29, 2010 12:25 PM EDT
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PrintIf you've been keeping up with the minor league stats and news lately, you've seen that NWA 2B Johnny Giavotella has been on an absolute tear. Essentially since Moose left for Omaha, Johnny G has been crushing the ball, capped by a 4-5, 1 2B, 1 HR performance last night against the Tulsa Drillers. After that game, his line climbed to a nice .306/.380/.422. I took some time and dug up the stats on Johnny G to see how they've changed over the year and created this recent push.
Johnny just turned 23 on July 10 and was drafted in the second round in 2008 out of the University of New Orleans. His ranking as a Royal prospect took a bit of a dive this year, but with the talent emerging around him, it's easy to understand.
The easiest place to look to dig into his progression as a AA hitter is at his monthly splits. Johnny started the year off strong by hitting .324/.427/.392 in April. It was clear that he wasn't a power hitter, but he had a nice average and OBP going for him. In May and June, his numbers dropped to .254/.301/.342 and .284/.389/.389, respectively, before he took off with his July line of .365/.420/.514. He has similar splits to Moose, with roughly a .05/.07/.09 stat advantage at home.
Johnny's been helped out by some good fortune and some strong hitting lately, as his BABIP has been a staggering .403 in July. What's apparent, however, is that something has changed in the way Johnny's hitting the ball lately. His GB%, LD%, and FB% month-to-month have been:
April: 58.8 GB%; 23.5 LD%; 17.6 FB%; 3 GIDP
May: 51.5 GB%; 19.4 LD%; 29.1 FB%; 8 GIDP
June: 35.6 GB%; 24.1 LD%; 39.1 FB%; 2 GIDP
July: 36.4 GB%; 24.2 LD%; 39.4 FB%; 0 GIDP
It's instantly apparent that Johnny altered his hitting strategy about a quarter or a third of the way through the season. The drop in GB% resulted in a jump in flyballs, which partially explains why he's hit three times as many home runs in his last 7 games than in the rest of the season so far. It's also helped him to hit into fewer (or no) GIDPs, which helps the team as a whole. I know, small sample sizes are great and all, but it gives you an idea of how he's changing his hitting. The drop in LD% in May could potentially also correspond with the drop in his stat line, though I don't have the data to back that up.
Interesting point to note: Johnny is hitting just .172 on fly balls, which is understandable, and .213 on grounders. His line drives are the key part of his batting game, as he hits .795 and slugs .973 on them.
While Johnny is hitting more home runs lately via his increased fly ball rate, the most important factor in his hitting is the roughly constant line drive percentage he's putting up. Last year (in Wilmington) he had a 47.2 GB%, 17.4 LD%, and 35.0 FB%, leaving him with a .262/.352/.382 line in almost 500 ABs. In '08 (with Burlington Bees), those numbers were 45.5, 16.3, and 37.8, which gave him a .303/.360/.427 line. The jump in LD% this year has instantly added a jolt to his game and offseason work must have helped him to hit the ball more squarely to take advantage of these rips.
Though he may never be a superstar, Johnny Giavotella has really progressed in his hitting lately. I won't go into defense, but he seems to be neither good nor horrible with +3 runs in 2008 and -3 runs in 2009 at Burlington and Wilmington, respectively.
Stats from MinorLeagueSplits.com
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I really wanted to vote average 2B w/ KC
but I think there’s a much better chance that he tops out as a 4A player. Reports have suggested that he’s below average defensively which means (1) he’ll have to hit his way onto the club, and (2) if his bat isn’t quite good enough to make him a starter, he won’t be able to carve out a utility role since he can’t play SS. He doesn’t have much power, so he’s really going to have to maintain a high OBP to stick with an MLB team. There’s a chance he does just that tho, so he’s not a bad prospect.
by kcdc1 on Jul 29, 2010 1:04 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I voted average 2B
But that may be optimistic. I agree with a lot of this.
sounds about right
the defense will the key, unless he somehow adds power. I think BA’s handbook comment was pretty down on the defense, along the line of that Giavotella could not afford to lose another step.
Esteban German 2.0?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 30, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Good post
I view Giavotella’s upside as Mike Aviles with better plate discipline, but capable or reaching the majors sooner.
That’s not a bad player, if, as kcdc1 says, he maintains enough of his OBP. Have also heard the same thoughts/concerns about his defense; totally agree that he needs to be able to start to have ML value, as MI utility guys are expected to be at least avg defensively at both SS and 2B.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
I think he's going to be better than Mike Aviles
even if Giavotella doesn’t hit .300. He can hit .270-.280 with the little more pop that he has and I will take that over Mike any day. It just seems that Mike rarely hits it squarely so he ends up with a lot of pop ups. Also, I don’t care what Ryan and Frank say, Aviles bailing out really early affects his offense. I mean, how is anybody going to hit a home run by stepping in the bucket, thereby making a pitch down the middle into an outside pitch that you have to reach for?
- "But Frank, that's the worst shortstop in the league."
- "That's what they keep tellin' me."
Seitzer doesn't believe it either
He’s just trying to protect a player as a coach should and take the blame when he fails. Let the guy play and then take the blame, push the success to the player…
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
Of course,
Mike hits for average, so I’m not surprised if nobody is saying anything to him.
- "But Frank, that's the worst shortstop in the league."
- "That's what they keep tellin' me."
you can tell they are working on it...
but it seems as though Aviles forgets everything when he gets to games. Much like a younger player.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
Yeah, a little too late to be doing that.
- "But Frank, that's the worst shortstop in the league."
- "That's what they keep tellin' me."
I hate to be a contrarian (hehe), but I think your poll missed a good possibility
Decent MLB utility infielder. I’m talking about the kind of guy who is in the majors for many years, but is rarely a regular, and spends the vast majority of his time as a utility IFer, probable for several MLB teams.
The immoderate moderator
Yeah, I realized this after the fact
But people had started voting, so I didn’t want to add another choice.
"Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."
by MinnesotaRoyal on Jul 29, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
I feel like the second option is pretty close to that
Just mix the wording up a bit
But there is a huge difference bettween "average MLB 2B" and "utility IFer"
If average means a 2.0 WAR (and it should), then that is a pretty big achievement. Certainly few Royals manage that. And continuing to play at that level is an even bigger deal. On the other hand being a utility IFer for a number of years is a much, much lower achievement, often meaning the player is little better than replacement level.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jul 29, 2010 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Can he play shortstop though?
You usually have to play passable SS to be labeled a “utility infielder” and from what I understand he struggles at 2B.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Jul 30, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
Willie Bloomquist?
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
Something like that
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jul 29, 2010 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
I've Seen Nothing
To indicate he can play OF (and precious little to indicate Bloomers can, for that matter), but as a UIF who can break .700 OPS he’d be useful until he gets older and more expensive. But, yes, Bloomers is probably not a bad comparison. I’d just hope his offense will be a little better.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 29, 2010 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Agree with NYRoyal...
I voted for number 3, but I think he’ll play a long time in the majors while rarely being a starter. He pretty clearly has the makeup that managers/teams love, so if he can add some positional versatility, then he should be a very useful bench piece.
by billexgordler on Jul 30, 2010 1:26 AM EDT up reply actions
Best news:
There is reasonable chance he could become a ML starter – and he ranks behind MANY current prospects in the system (Hell, he has become almost an afterthought, really). Yet another indication of the strength of the minor league system right now.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
That FB%
seems like it got a little high without the LD% going much higher. That’s a concern for a guy who doesn’t have much pop. But as far as we know, he’s figuring it out and getting loft on the ball will ultimately work out. It’s not hurting his contact rates apparently, so good news.
- "But Frank, that's the worst shortstop in the league."
- "That's what they keep tellin' me."
Giavotella or Bianchi?
Who do you guys prefer?
Giavotella
He’s got grit. Just kidding. He seems to stay healthy.
- "But Frank, that's the worst shortstop in the league."
- "That's what they keep tellin' me."
Giavotella
Healthier. Had this year’s injury not happened, I think I would have taken Bianchi. He has more power and better defense.
We Probably Don't
Have room for both in KC. I’d be happy if one of them replaced Lucas in a year or two. If either or both become legit MIF starters I’ll be ecstatic.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 29, 2010 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
bianchi has much higher upside imo
but he is always hurt. i think they both could trade roster spots a few times over their option years, see if either can stick
I like the bat
And think it will be good enough to be a league average 2B. But I think it is fairly common ground that his glove won’t be, which is going to hurt him.
He’ll be a solid bench guy I suspect.
I disagree sort of.
His glove could get a lot better. I remember Ian Kinsler was once a notorious terrible 2B, but I really don’t hear much about that now. In fact, I think Giavotella could end up being a poor man’s Kinsler.
- "But Frank, that's the worst shortstop in the league."
- "That's what they keep tellin' me."
i like it.
(now let’s trade JoGui)
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
Just Take Him
For a ride in the country.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 29, 2010 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Possibly to get some cannoli?
"Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."
by MinnesotaRoyal on Jul 29, 2010 2:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I Meant Hoagy
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 29, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I know
The Godfather.
"Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."
by MinnesotaRoyal on Jul 29, 2010 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions
Scott Podsednik sleeps with the fishes
"The bowler's Holding, the batsman's Willey" - Unfortunate cricket commentator
People don't talk much about Ryan Braun's terrible fielding anymore either
Mostly because they’re too busy gushing over his hitting. If you hit like an All-Star, crappy defense is quickly forgotten in most circles. If Little Italy hits like Kinsler, I bet you won’t hear too much about him booting grounders.
by Soria's Unibrow on Jul 29, 2010 2:01 PM EDT up reply actions
Well, and Braun was moved to LF
Away from 3B, where he originally came up (sounds familiar…). Most of that reason was to hide his defense so his bat could shine.
"Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."
by MinnesotaRoyal on Jul 29, 2010 2:32 PM EDT up reply actions
You can hide it
But it’s still there. Bad defense is bad defense.
Now, obviusly Braun’s bat more than makes up for his deficiencies with the glove and so he remains a very good player. I’m not sure Gio will have the same ability to hit his way past a bad glove.
I Don't Recall
Him being sent to AAA to make the move, either. He’s a pretty good defensive LF, IIRC.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 29, 2010 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Every game that I've seen he's been fairly respectable
Not fielding hot-shot grounders and liners really helps.
"Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."
by MinnesotaRoyal on Jul 29, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Worm Burners Are
The worst.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 29, 2010 3:07 PM EDT up reply actions
He hit a lot of bombs in college
He’ll find some power after a while. It’ll develop. I think he’ll be a solid starter and I’ve thought that from the time we drafted him. I’m more positive on guys though most of the time…
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
i think i was about the only one who hated the pick at the time...
and i still just dont see it
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jul 29, 2010 7:14 PM EDT up reply actions
I voted conservative
for the “Lifer” at Omaha choice. I hope that he’s an average 2B, but I can also see him as “injury insurance” for whoever we have starting in the Majors – someone that we can bring up to fill in for a couple of weeks without killing us (at least offensively).
Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau
by aHorseWithNoName on Jul 29, 2010 1:41 PM EDT reply actions
I was thinking Ed Lucas was that guy.
- "But Frank, that's the worst shortstop in the league."
- "That's what they keep tellin' me."
And today - Lucas might be
But in the future, that could be Giavotella. Lucas is already 28 (born in 1982). Johnny G is 5 years younger.
Tension is the enemy. - Charlie Lau
by aHorseWithNoName on Jul 29, 2010 1:53 PM EDT up reply actions
If the chips fall his way
he might be the next Bloomers.
Don't Fuccop Succop
by chicks_love_chiefs on Jul 29, 2010 1:43 PM EDT reply actions
Let's hope we don't see a FA to fill that role.
In fact, being a utility guy might be a nice way to get their feet wet.
- "But Frank, that's the worst shortstop in the league."
- "That's what they keep tellin' me."
I don't think he's anything like Bloomquist
except maybe that neither of them have a whole lot of value at the ML level (hopefully Giavotella does). The most HR Bloomy hit in a minor league season is 6, followed by 3, 2, and 0. Giavotella has hit 4, 6, and 4. Bloomquist’s skill was his athleticism and his jack-of-all-trades versatility. Giavotella is going to have to play 2B or DH, so he’ll need to make his name as a hitter.
'The Writers Junction'
in Santa Monica, CA
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 29, 2010 4:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe he can learn 3B and LF
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 30, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Just beat me to it
I was looking for one before and couldn’t find it. Thanks for the link.
"Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."
by MinnesotaRoyal on Jul 29, 2010 2:00 PM EDT up reply actions
I have noticed what Johnny G is up to lately...
…in large part because I’m checking Naturals box scores in anticipation of a trip to see them in Springfield on Saturday. The top of the order of D-Rob, Johnny G and the Hos has been producing nicely of late. Also, Orlando seems to be getting it done, and Romak is off to a good start in that lineup.
Maybe I’ll have some pics or video when I get back on Monday.
On a related note: does anyone know what the chances are that Duffy, Lamb and/or Montgomery will be on the roster and on the mound on Saturday?
You'll have to manually check on what the rotation looks like.
Duffy and Lamb should be on the roster, for sure. Monty, I don’t know exactly. You could try checking the NWA twitter feed.
- "But Frank, that's the worst shortstop in the league."
- "That's what they keep tellin' me."
Monty won't be on the roster
I think you have a good shot at seeing Lamb this weekend, but I have no idea what Duffy’s schedule is. He might throw Sunday. I’d peg Lamb for Friday or Saturday, just off the top of my head.
"Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."
by MinnesotaRoyal on Jul 29, 2010 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I Can't Wait
For all these prospects to wash out. It’s just how I roll.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
there's no in between
it’s either starter at 2B or AAA guy.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
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