40-Man Roster/Rule 5 Decisions, 2010 Edition

Dutton's brief article about Greg Holland coming up mentioned his being eligible for the Rule 5 draft this year if not on the 40-man roster.  This reminded me that I wanted to do a FanPost on this issue a couple of months ago and just forgot.  The college guys selection in 2007, aka GMDM Year 1, are all Rule 5 eligible this winter, so they have to be added to the 40-man to be protected.  Now that Holland's up and his contract's been purchased, I'd assume he'd have to be DFAed to get off the 40-man, so there's no need to look at him.  Here's a look at those other draftees (there may also be international guys and other guys acquired from other teams, but I'm just too lazy to do that much work, so I'm only messing with the Royals draftees--if anyone has information about those other guys, throw it in in the comments or do another FanPost):

With Holland up, the Royals only have 4 2007 college draftees left in the system who would be Rule 5 eligible.  The first two are pretty easy:

Adrian Ortiz (5th round, OF):  light hitting but allegedly fast fielder out of Pepperdine, he's still still in Wilmington, having played there all this year after splitting time in Burlington, IA and Wilmington the last two years.  He lives and dies by batting average:  his career line is .292/.322/.362/.684.  Last year was dreadful for him, which dragged his BA under .300, which he's hit above every other season, including this one, which has put his OPS over .700 every year but last.  Strikes out about 4 times as often as he walks.  His speed doesn't really seem to translate to the basepaths: he has stolen 97 bases in his career but has also been thrown out 47 times.  A 67% success rate means he's giving away outs instead of creating runs with his base stealing.  He apparently has learned some grit, though:  he has almost doubled his career high in Sacrifice Bunts this year.  And he's playing far more in the corners than CF this year.  There's no need to protect him--no one's gonna put him on a major league roster.

Ryan Eigsti (15th round, C):  drafted out of the Missouri Valley (Bradley) made me an early fan, but has not excited, as he simply cannot hit.  Career line is .209/.307/.313/.620.  Prior to this year, he has thrown out baserunners at a nice clip:  37% career and 43% last year.  He's current on the NWA roster but has been injured most of the year.  If they Royals want him back again, I don't think they need to worry.  He looks as if he's a good organizational soldier type as opposed to prospect and does not need to be protected.

With those two out of the way, the conversation gets interesting:

David Lough (11th round, OF):  after a breakout 2009 (.325/.370/.496/.866 split between Wilmington and NWA), many of us had dreams of a callup sometime this year to take his place in the Royals starting OF.  All he had to do was keep hitting in Omaha just like he had the year before.  Well, he didn't.  His 2010 line of .254/.318/.418/.736 has eliminated a lot of the buzz on Lough.  But the scouting types apparently still like his bat, and his struggles appear BA related (he's actually walked a little more this year than last and his HR are comparable, although his doubles are down a lot this year, and thus so are his power numbers).  It's possible he's been very unlucky (which would be good news) or it's possible his LD% is down (which would be bad news); I have no idea where to find this out.  With the down year, he may not be that attractive to other teams, but that could be a risk.  It all depends if this year or last year is the outlier.  He's may not be not more than a MITCH at the major league level, but hey, there's a lot of guys on the 40-man that aren't as good as a MITCH.  I'd protect him.

Clint Robinson (25th round, 1B/DH):  they were drafted the same year, but Robinson was already a year older than Lough, so, while no one argues that Lough is too old to be a prospect, everyone says Robinson, now 25, is too old.  The Royals have slow-played him in the system, making him do a full year at every level, although all he's done is hit at every level.  His career line=.299/.365/.517/.882.  Those stats have been appropriate for the leagues he's played in: for the hitter friendly, .981 OPS in Idaho Falls and .971 in NWA this year, .806 and .819 in the Midwest and Caroline Leagues, respectively.  As best as I can tell, Robinson and Will Myers are the only Royals farmhands who have had a .800+ OPS at every stop along the way (and Robinson's been playing twice as long).  The problem?  The Royals can't get Micah Kila Ka'aihue (who knew?) into the lineup as it is, and even if they do, Kila, Billy and Hosmer will have to Rochambeau for two roster spots.  Thus, as the fourth-best 1B in the organization, he's simply blocked, as his bat is quite good, but not great.  While his bat may not play big enough to justify a major league 1B/DH spot and his lack of another position does not justify a bench spot, if you squint, you could see a Jack Cust type.  That type has value, if not to the Royals, eventually to someone else.  I'd protect him and let him DH in Omaha and spell Hosmer at 1B next year.