Royal Pitchers Under Ned Yost: Starters Bad, Relievers Good
by Freneau on Jul 7, 2010 2:51 PM EDT
in Kansas City Royals News
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PrintHeading into this series, I was under the impression that the pitching had improved under Yost, and that that was why the Royals were winning. However, that is, at best, only partially true. Since Yost took over, the Royals are 6th in the AL in runs scored (a tick above league average with the team's number 3&4 hitters both very hot, lets all go absolutely insane over this!) and tied for 7th in runs allowed. Basically, that's the definition of a mediocre, .500 baseball team.
So, here are the ERAs for the guys under Yost. I feel a little bad just giving raw ERAs like this, but until Fangraphs gets a game log function as awesome as B-Refs, this is going to have to do. ERA sucks as a predictive tool going forward, but it's not 100% awful as a quick and dirty snapshot of what happened. It doesn't tell us if a pitcher really "deserved" to allow those runs, but, especially for starters, it's a passable tool to look at general trends. There are more numbers to look at, but I don't have time to get all of them just right now.
Starters under Yost:
| ERA | IP | |
| Greinke | 4.48 | 66 |
| Bannister | 5.63 | 56 |
| Davies | 5.98 | 49 |
| Hochevar | 4.35 | 41 |
| Chen | 3.32 | 43 |
| Lerew | 5.24 | 22 |
So, I fully expect all the Yostheads who will rave about what he's gotten out of Chen and the bullpen guys to also be worried that he "can't reach Greinke and the starters." Right? I mean, if we're going to assume causation with one set of meaningless data, we might as well do so with another. Should we consider trading Greinke since Yost is so obviously a part of the team's future????? The numbers don't lie, SOMETHING IS GOING ON.
And now, the Relievers under Yost:
| ERA | IP | |
| Texeira | 1.93 | 14 |
| Marte | 3.71 | 17 |
| Wood | 4.71 | 21 |
| Hughes | 3.46 | 13 |
| Farnsworth | 1.29 | 21 |
| Tejeda | 0.96 | 18.2 |
| Soria | 1.37 | 19.2 |
Obviously, the bullpen has been better. Is that Yost? Or just something that happened? There's been considerable talk that Yost has stabilized the bullpen with more defined roles, and that the players have responded to this. Supposedly, a big example of this is Farnsworth, who is either more stabilized now or being given more important innings. Here's his game log under Yost: I defy you to find a clear pattern. You can pick any aspect of the situation: inning, team winning or losing, number of innings, ANYTHING.
To me, the big change comes down to this: Tejeda has been good rather than terrible (which had happened before, which was why he had us all excited heading into this season) and Farnsworth has been good rather than terrible. Farnsworth was good for long stretches of last season as well. Although I've introduced these numbers of my own volition, looking at reliever ERAs over small samples is pretty risky given how there's so much weirdness in how their runs can be credited. The fact is, the bullpen has pitched well, as a group, under Yost. I just return to the central question of WHY. Other than Texeira, these aren't even new guys: they're random Royals we've had floating around for years in most cases. We've heard a lot that Yost is being more stable in his roles, but I'm not sure I believe that. We're now doing the same thing with Hillman (who I didnt like) that we did with Baird, creating an alternative history that is totally exaggerated. Hillman loved him some stable bullpen roles, guys. That's why we had nearly a year of Jamey Wright as the 8th inning guy. Hillman was a bad manager, but it wasn't crazy town with him running the bullpen: it was a two year fight just to get him to use Soria in the 9th.
What do you see?
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Look at the ERAs of the bullpen guys who were gone when Yost started
(or gone shortly thereafter). Plus, Marte pitched only one game under Hillman, and Blake Wood pitched only two.
The same goes for Gil Meche.
The last three bullpen spots
(except Farnsy, Soria, Hughes, and Tejeda) have been turned over more than once since the start of the season, and this has resulted in a major improvement. Texiera has been a very good pickup. Farnsy has been pitching surprisingly well. They use him as a sixth-seventh inning setup man, and never let him pitch with runners on. Tejeda started out terrible and then began pitching very well.
Hawaii is an incredible ethnic smashup, and a good few Portuguese showed up there at one time or another, which is where we get Mr. Texiera’s Hawaiian first name and Portuguese surname.
"The bowler's Holding, the batsman's Willey" - Unfortunate cricket commentator
I was reading somewhere this morning
that the big change of the Ned era was that he had the pitchers throwing off mounds in their side sessions instead of off flat ground so they’re less prone to leave pitches up in the zone. I’m not sure this is a genius move so much as common sense, which only highlights the WTF-ness of Trey’s tenure.
by swing and a miss on Jul 7, 2010 3:22 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Maybe it speaks to Hillman's micromanagement
over the wishes of his coaching staff. I would think left to his own devices, McClure would have required throwing off the mound.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 7, 2010 4:27 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd read something about that I could have swore Yost said they were always going to throw off mounds
but I’ve seen pitchers throwing on the side in the outfield at least twice before games since reading it.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Greinke and the Starters are a great band, but you have to see them live to fully appreciate them.
by Soria's Unibrow on Jul 7, 2010 3:23 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
The difference is that
Dayton Moore was very quick to discard bad relievers this season. He stocked up on cheap pitchers in the off-season and went through a month or so of weeding the garden. Mendoza bad? Gone, bring up Rupe. Rupe bad? Gone, bring up Bullington. Lather, rinse repeat. He didn’t do that last year.
End result: by the time patience with Trey ran out, the bullpen was pretty decent.
Chaim Mattis Keller New York City's # 1 Royals fan!
And I actually really like this strategy
Reliever usage varies so great from year to year, its best to go cheap and use April as a way to weed out the crap.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
of course
the reason relievers vary in performance (different fro true talent) from year-to-year is that we only get a small sample of their performance each season, so they are harder to project.
So getting rid of a reliever based on one month’s assorted appearances is just worsening the problem — one month doesn’t tell you much anything of use about any player, much less a reliever. He a reliever genuinely sucks in APril, he genuinely sucked before then, so probably shouldn’t be on the roster to begin with.
After all, we’re glad Tejeda didn’t get turfed after his 6.93 xFIP in April, right?
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jul 7, 2010 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes
I would prefer a pitcher-evaluation-approach in which the ball-suckers would be identified as soon as possible. Ideally before any such ball-suckers are actually signed, but hopefully at least by the end of spring training.
"Now…put that in your [BLEEP]ing pipe and smoke it." -Hal McRae
"I was doing this when BJ was in his father's nutsack." -Renzo Gracie
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jul 7, 2010 4:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Isn't that to some extent a minus for hillman.
Its one thing for GMDM to acquire Ramon Colon as a bullpen candidate. Its another for Hillman to anoint him the set-up man coming out of spring training. We don’t know how good Yost is at picking talent from bullpen candidates, but we have some information about Hillman not being the best judge of that talent.
Yeah, you got me
I was one of those calling for Tejeda’s head after his awful April, and he’s turned it around.
One thing is that the relievers who were defenestrated after a few bad outings most likely had been mediocre pitchers throughout their careers, so they’ve got a larger sample size than just this season with the Royals. Rupe has a 6.5 ERA in twelve innings? Better get rid of him, since last year it was 8.3. Or whatever.
"The bowler's Holding, the batsman's Willey" - Unfortunate cricket commentator
I dont think this tells us anything different than the batters yeterday
You either believe the manager has some control over the team or you dont
or, more accurately
you either the managers should get credit for good things (only good things of course) or you don’t
the word managers
can also be replaced with “Jason Kendall”
As in, if a pitcher wins a couple of games in a row, it’s because of his great chemistry with Jason Kendall, but if he loses a couple of games in a row, that’s on the pitcher only.
by swing and a miss on Jul 7, 2010 3:52 PM EDT up reply actions
LeFebvre
loves to point out how good pitches hit exactly where Kendall had his glove. As if Kendall has some secret knowledge of where good places to throw pitches are and the pitcher’s success is a direct result of how well Kendall determines the target.
re: the overreacting
It’s cracking me up hard how some of the negative nellies around here are criticizing anyone who might be overreacting with a bit of modest optimism. So hyperbole is ok as long as it’s negative and sarcastic, but if it’s positive and hopeful/naive then gtfo?
Overreacting: You were for it before you were against it.
Nothing against optimism, but I think RR is just asking
if Yost has caused this team to start playing +.500 ball, what exactly has he done? Why would we believe that the team was a .400 team before he started coaching but a .500 team after?
Would you like to follow me on Twitter, Facebook, or my blog...well you can't.
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 7, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
You must be banned
Not for criticizing the cynical nature of our top posters, but for using the word “nellies”. That’ just wrong.
It's all ball bearings these days!
by CentralChamps20?? on Jul 7, 2010 5:42 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
You dumb bastard...
It’s not a schooner… it’s a sailboat.
by wentToARoyalsGameBeforeRR on Jul 7, 2010 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions
No, He's In
Red Lobster.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jul 7, 2010 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Now when Farnsworth pitches the balls stop at the warning track instead of going out
answer: whatever god trey was praying to, that’s the one that definitely doesn’t exist
by Official Arrowhead Pride Parade on Jul 7, 2010 4:09 PM EDT reply actions
I don't see how those pictures add up to spell
“Jason Kendall playing every day and batting 2nd”
Would you like to follow me on Twitter, Facebook, or my blog...well you can't.
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jul 7, 2010 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions
That's where you are wrong
studs fag
Don't Fuccop Succop
by chicks_love_chiefs on Jul 7, 2010 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions
’sWhat is this
What are the starters ERA under Hillman? Davies and Bannister were just as bad under Hillman. Meche had an ERA at 10. Hochevar’s ERA was worse under Hillman
I don’t see what point is. Yost was responsible for Chen from all the information I read on the internet. Bullington was Moore’s choice but Yost decided to convert Chen into a full time starter.
Not that it matters. We have a decent rotation under Hillman or Yost. Its our offense which is better because Betemit has been given more time and Dejesus, Butler, Guillen, Getz, Aviles are hitting better now
And What has Ned done
To make them hit better. What has he done to make the pitchers better?
That is all Will is asking. What is materially different? Or are we all just content to lazily say it is some something that can’t be identified and just be happy with it?
If you don't subscribe to the theory that a coach makes players play better
Even if its making them more comfortable, having a better relationship with them. The best example is Carlos Delgado who was worse than a replacement player under Randolph in 2008 and was the 2nd best hitter in the NL under Manuel that same year. It was like night and day. But even if you argue that is total crap and it was 100% the player’s ability and 0% coaching.
The manager decides who plays or not. Yost has decided Betemit and Chen should play more and almost fulltime. Betemit has been our 2nd best hitter behind Butler the past few weeks. Chen has been our 2nd best pitcher behind Greinke the last few weeks.
So you ask what has Ned done. He played these two players. Hillman didn’t. You can’t tell me that Hillman would have started Chen, because he put him in the bullpen and was never given a chance to be a starter. He was sent to Omaha. You can’t tell met hat Hillman would have started Betemit almost every day. He wasn’t even selected to be on his team to open the season. He was also sent to Omaha.
The emergence of these two players occurred under Yost. He gets the credit. They didn’t perform under Hillman because he never gave them a chance to perform. That is Hillman’s fault for not maximizing the ability of his ball club
by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 7, 2010 4:55 PM EDT up reply actions
So we also should give Yost negative credit for players who have struggled under him
So here’s your 100% credit for Chen and Betemit that you so desire.
By that thinking, he’s also absolutely ruined Alberto Callaspo, done nothing for Davies and made Bannister and Greinke worse.
There's no difference with Greinke really
Davies and Bannister sucked before and they still suck. Look at Davies and Bannisters 08 and 09 seasons. They are not good, under Yost, under Hillman, under the sun, they are just not good.
Callaspo has struggled but he’s also been hurt. However, Betemit has been much better than Callaspo, and by playing instead the Royals are better. So its makes ZERO difference if he’s ruined Callaspo (who i think will bounce back a little when he gets healthy anyway)
So far its a net positive. You can say A B and C happened under Yost. Some players played better and others didn’t. Obviously overall the Royals have been better so that is why we need to give Yost credit
by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 7, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
lol oops my mistake
Bannister is actually good under the sun, he’s horrible under the moon and stars*
by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 7, 2010 5:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Correct me if I'm wrong
but didn’t Chen get some starts last year?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Not sure what you think about the whole Delgado thing
It was well documented in the media their dislike for each other and disagreements injuries They were not even on speaking terms weeks leading up to Randolphs dismissal:
SNY Mets analyst Ron Darling today told WFAN that former manager Willie Randolph and first baseman Carlos Delgado were not communicating before Randolph was fired.
His pre All Star OPS = .783
His post All Star OPS = .992
But thats just a coincidence too right?
by GobbleforCyoung on Jul 7, 2010 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions
We prefer Yostafarians
But seriously, two days of The Inquiry into Ned Yost? It feels like election time and we’re trying to force a scandal upon someone who hasn’t yet banged an intern or killed a hooker.
Place witty signature here.
I think Beatrix Potter said it best when she stated:
“All outward forms of baseball management are almost useless and are the causes of endless strife. . . . Believe there is a great power silently working all things for good, behave yourself and never mind the rest.”
Place witty signature here.
Here's what is sad. Will says:
“Since Yost took over, the Royals are 6th in the AL in runs scored (a tick above league average with the team’s number 3&4 hitters both very hot, lets all go absolutely insane over this!) and tied for 7th in runs allowed. Basically, that’s the definition of a mediocre, .500 baseball team.”
And my first thought is: FINALLY!!!
Yah, .500 is parade worthy for the Royals.
Go Royals!
But isn't a .500 team
exceeding the expectations for this team? Wouldn’t we consider a .500 finish a successful season and a solid indication that the team is moving towards contention in the next few years? Why are we acting like this would be a bad thing?
I hate to say it, but Dayton Moore was right, some people have critical spirits and want to see him fail.
Too bad
I was up for a good Internet pissing contest
by Black and Gold on Jul 7, 2010 9:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Personally, I'm more scared that it's simply smoke and mirrors
yet the front office will believe it and think they’re buyers.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
going .500 over a month and a half isnt really proof of anything
we’re excited and over analyzing the royal “surge” as if they had actually gone on a big winning streak or were actually sorta in the race, they havent and they arent
Going .500 over a month and a half
with Scotty Pods, the Big Yunit, and Kendadderall as one-third of your starting lineup is quite a feat, especially if your utility man is Bloomquist and your right fielder is Shaky Guillén (who is hitting, though not $12 million worth).
"The bowler's Holding, the batsman's Willey" - Unfortunate cricket commentator
Can we blame Hillman:
for Meche’s injury? Ramon Colon making the team out of spring training as the set-up man? (maybe debates in and of themselves) Ramon Colon’s stats this year may be a small sample size, but a lost year of Meche isn’t.
If so we can quantify a negative for Hillman in terms of WAR. Until Yost does something quantifiable as bad, he is better.
I agree
Also, I still have an old Albuquerque Dukes t-shirt that I still wear. And their old stadium was Albuquerque Sports Stadium which, of course, everyone called the ASS.
by Black and Gold on Jul 7, 2010 9:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Hillman sucked. Yost is better.
Any exploration beyond that is just gross overindulgence.
Place witty signature here.
To anyone
The gray sarcasm font thing. How do you do it exactly? I know @ is involved but not 100% sure.
by James Kannengieser on Jul 7, 2010 7:51 PM EDT reply actions
Or just use "
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Jul 7, 2010 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions
@just like this@
you should overuse it like I do
Don't Fuccop Succop
by chicks_love_chiefs on Jul 7, 2010 7:53 PM EDT reply actions
Damn late starts
Make the nights crawl. I’m at the office and have to actually work just to keep myself distracted.
Place witty signature here.
100% agree, Will
In all the recent YostPosts, I’ve been writing that the turn-around under Yost is essentially bullpen improvement due to Tejeda bouncing back and DM finally getting the right players on the team, random variance, and maybe a little boost of confidence that comes with having a fresh start again with the new manager.
I think Yost deserves some credit for saying the right things and seemingly managing personalities better, and maybe that’s created a somewhat better atmosphere around the clubhouse, but the Yost’s game-management has been nearly identical to Hillman’s. Which is fine—if you can keep the clubhouse in order, help the young players to reach their potential, and keep the team focused, we can live with some funky batting orders and some old school bullpen management.
Basically, I like Yost so far. I think he’s done a good job. I don’t think he’s accomplished some sort of magic to turn an awful team into a good team. I think he’s merely taken a slightly below average team and has them playing like a slightly below average team. Which is a big improvement from what Trey did.
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