Do The Royals Have Anything In Bryan Bullington?
by Freneau on Aug 16, 2010 12:48 PM EDT
in Kansas City Royals News
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PrintBryan Bullington has pitched surprisingly well in his two starts with the Royals this season, so, we might as well get our typical blog on and talk about it.
Here's the basic Bullington 2010 dossier:
Major League Starts: 14 IP, 1.93 ERA, 4 BBs, 9 Ks, .189 BABIP
Major League Relief Work: 7 IP, 5.14 ERA, 7 BBs, 1 HBP, 4 Ks
Minor League Numbers: 102 IP, 2.82 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9
Here's what Bullington has working in his favor:
- A good ERA in the minors, with most of those innings coming as a starter.
- Two good starts in the Major Leagues.
- A 13% LD rate in the Majors this year.
- A decent ground-baller pedigree.
Here's what Bullington had working against him:
- Unimpressive strikeout rates at AAA.
- A small sample of really bad relief work. However his numbers are so bad, you could almost make a sports pysch case that he just wasn't comfortable out there. Hence the wildness. Despite the fact he's had a lot of bullpen work in the last few years.
- Clearly, nearly all of his success in his two glorious starts has come from simply not allowing any hits. He's done well to limit the walks, but it's not like he's Cliff Lee either.
I don't think any serious fan believes Bullington can post a sub 2.00 ERA as a starter in the Major Leagues. Almost no one can do that, even the very best pitchers. Really, the question is, can Bullington exist in that 3.75-4.75 range that would make him functional. (I don't like using ERA as the dominant stat, but for a quick and dirty measurement of what happened, it's not terrible. It's a bad stat for predicting future ERAs, but if you can understand that a pitcher can have a lucky ERA, but isn't going to sustain one, it's ok for our purposes.)
Bullington has in his favor his age (29) and whatever projectibles and physical tools once made him a top pick. Moreover, because of injuries, ineffectiveness, and his spending time with multiple organizations, he hasn't pitched that much in his 20s. Between 2007-2009 he bounced around, did some random bullpen time, and saved his arm. (Unless he played winter ball or something.) I guess you can put that in his favor. His 102 minor league innings this season is his most since 2008, and he's a decent bet to set a career high in total IP this year.
The thing that stands out about Bullington's minor league numbers, when you first look at them, is that they really aren't bad. They're not spectacular, but they aren't awful either.
ERA-wise, he's been decent at the AAA level. Bullington's thrown 528 AAA innings, and has a 3.90 ERA at that level. Nevertheless, his K/9 is at 6.7 and his walks are in the mid-2s. Bullington is relatively polished and probably a smart and composed minor league pitcher at this point, but even at AAA he's not missing enough bats.
For what it's worth, ZIPS projects Bullington to post a 4.85 ERA the rest of the way. That's not great, but it is considerably better than what is projected from Kyle Davies (5.28) and Brian Bannister (5.73). I don't know if I fully trust those numbers, but they do suggest that Bullington might not be a terrible option for the Royals for the rest of the season.
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Eh why not?
We already know what Bannister is, and pretty much know what Davies is.
I guess I can clarify
yes, I suppose he can hold down a spot for the rest of the year, and he may be an OK #5 starter candidate for the minimum salary for next year…I know this, I’m done with Bannister. I still think you keep Davies because of the age, ability to eat innings, and better stuff, but even then, there’s probably a spot or two open for next year…you’ve got a potential rotation of Greinke, Davies, Chen, Bullington, and O’Sullivan. Blech.
BOOM YOSTED!
by Home Run Tony Cogan on Aug 16, 2010 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Throw in Hoch next year
And it looks a bit more managable
Plus maybe Montgomery if DM feels frisky
The pretty much part
means that I think he may have some potential
Bannister, not so much
you beat me by about five minutes on my rotation post
Todd Haley's kids know more swear words than I do.
by kcisbetterthanstlateverything on Aug 16, 2010 12:57 PM EDT reply actions
Might as well keep him for the league minimum
He can’t be any worse the the guys we’re running out there now, and if he is we cut him no harm done.
Nothing to lose by running him out there for another 10 or so starts the rest of the year
If they insist that Banny is coming back, and that they don’t want to move anybody out of the current rotation – then I’d even be fine with going to a 6 man rotation to end the year.
What difference does it make? The remainder of this season should be about trying to answer questions about existing talent.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
The problem seems to be...
that you have Greinke (#1 starter), then Hochevar (maybe #3, probably #4), and then a bunch of # 5 starters. We need a number 2 guy… which is where Monty might come in. Or please God no, DM will sign a free agent like Ryan Rowland-Smith.
Personally
I’d rather see him than Davies…I’m not a Davies hater, but the guy has control issues. He’s had control issues for 3 years and his stuff isn’t good enough to be an effective MLB starter w/ said issues.
I’m not saying dump Davies, but I’m getting on the ‘use Davies like Tejada’ bandwagon
BOOM! ROASTED!
I'm all for getting him some innings the rest of the way out
We need some fillers until our currency starts to make it to the majors. I’d like to get him a few more starts and just see what he does. Plus, making the league min is never a bad thing.
for when I'm too lazy to come here, http://twitter.com/AtTheWall
He's making me have flashbacks to two years ago
When Davies turned it on in September and was a great starter for us. Unfortunately, this only means bad things for his future. Ultimately, I see him as a Bruce Chen type of guy with less possibility in the ‘pen, as we’ve seen.
"Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."
What needs to happen here
Hopefully, when Montgomery, Lamb, Duffy, et al get called up, one or two of those guys immediately starts pitching like Hellickson has for TB this year.
Seriously, as if TB needed any more pitching options. We can’t even identify who should be our #2, #3, or #4 – and already having 5 guys better than our 2nd best, they call up a kid who immediately looks like a #2.
I’d say the rich get richer – but in this case it’s the poor getting richer. Here’s hoping Moore’s system can produce like that.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
Davies
I don’t think they would ever gamble on a pitcher with this poor command, but once the Royals do give up on Davies, I could see him going to Minnesota and suddenly blossoming into a sub 4 ERA guy or something. Don’t know how they do it (and we can’t) – but Minnesota can take mediocre-at-best pitchers and turn them into serviceable #3 types like nobody’s business.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
Minnesota focuses on guys with good command (even if their stuff is not great)
An NL team would be more likely to target Davies, as he should get a bump up in his K rate and down in his BB rate just for facing a pitcher every nine batters. Of course, the same thing should happen if he moved to the bullpen.
Applying Jeff's Special Sauce
Taking the past 4 seasons from Bryan "did he forget the extra “A” in Brayan" Bullington and applying Jeff’s formulas:
(I took the past 4 seasons, which are since he turned 27)
AAA (268 IP)
K/9 / BB/9
7.5 / 2.5
K/9* / BB/9*
6.8 / 3.4
ML (41.2 IP)
K/9 / BB/9
6.5 / 3.7
AAA sauce number is 7.98 and ML is 7.39 (used career 45.8% GB rate for all), with “projected” ERAs of 4.31 and 4.49. SSS for ML, of course, but it looks like the “sauce” translation has matched up pretty well. If you believe his ERA/FIP can be in the low 4’s, then I’d say that Yes there’s something there.
www.writersjunction.com
in Santa Monica, CA
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Aug 16, 2010 1:44 PM EDT reply actions
Did you make adjustments?
I thought from the article that Jeff posted, his special sauce has all kinds of adjustments in it.
yes,
i forgot to mention that the asterisk line is the adjusted AAA K and BB number.
www.writersjunction.com
in Santa Monica, CA
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Aug 16, 2010 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Bullington is probably a reliever long term
Bullington’s problem has always been left-handed hitters. Against right-handers, he can gets strike outs and avoid walks, but he can do neither against lefties. His minor league splits are:
v. RHB (291 IP): 3.44 FIP, 7.01 K/9, 1.76 BB/9, 0.68 HR/9, 50.5% GB%
v. LHB (251 IP): 4.46 FIP, 5.83 K/9, 3.65 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9, 49.9% GB%
He has shown the same splits in his brief major league career (small sample size alert):
v. RHB (33 IP): 3.90 FIP (3.96 xFIP), 6.75 K/9, 2.43 BB/9, 0.81 HR/9, 50.5% GB%
v. LHB (26 IP): 6.17 FIP (5.48 xFIP), 4.39 K/9, 4.73 BB/9, 1.69 HR/9, 40.9% GB%
Against right-handed hitters, Bullington appears to be a quality major league pitcher. His best pitch appears to be his slider, which makes sense.
Against left-handed hitters, however, Bullington looks like someone who should not have escaped AA ball. Sinker/slider guys tend to struggle against left-handed hitters, so this is not surprising. Unless he develops a better change or curve to give him something to throw lefties, he likely will continue to struggle against lefties.
If he was merely bad instead of terrible against lefties, he might be able to get by as a starter, but he probably needs to move to the bullpen long term because, unlike starters, relievers can be used in a way to minimize platoon issues.
by Gopherballs on Aug 16, 2010 1:49 PM EDT reply actions 3 recs
ROOGY
nice analysis….I was somewhat heartened by his k/9 ratio….but you are right, the lefties eat him up. However, you don’t have to squint too hard to see him providing some innings with better results than Banny or Davis….which ins’t saying much. Someone has to eat some innings next year while the greenhorn’s get broke in proper.
by Nighthawk at the Diner on Aug 16, 2010 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions
If the groundball rate sticks around 50%
Bullington would not have to improve too much against lefties to work as an adequate backend starter (~4.75 – 5.00). I am not sure if Bullington would be any better than Davies or Bannister (who is getting killed by a flukey HR/FB rate this year), but he would be cheaper, and putting a good infield defense behind him (yeah, I know) could make Bullington look better than he is. Mitch Talbot certainly gives Bullington some hope.
yes, with an emphasis on lite
Masterson gets an insane amount of groundballs and probably has the potential for getting more swings and misses, but they have a similar profile.
I was developing some serious love
for O’Sully until that three HR inning on Saturday. That just boggled the mind.
I’m in the Dump on Davies camp. He’s just too erratic and never seems to mature. A reliever role, maybe, but I’d be happy to never see him start another game.
Place witty signature here.
I really like the guy...
for no reason really…other than because he went to Ball State
Don't Fuccop Succop
by chicks_love_chiefs on Aug 16, 2010 2:50 PM EDT reply actions
Davies has to be non-tendered
There’s no way he makes sense at his post-arbitration salary. He’s been given more than enough chances—we know exactly what we have in him, and that is a bad pitcher with the occasional flash when he can actually demonstrate control. Besides, I think having a rotation that includes “Banny” and “Bully.”
If Bullington starts and doesn’t suck
We’d all assume he’d had some luck.
If Bullington doesn’t suck again
We’d wonder if he’d help the pen.
If Bullington takes another turn
And doesn’t suck, what does he earn?
Bannister’s spot? Davies’ same?
A bust in the Royal’s Hall of Fame?
Whatever the future holds in store,
Whether he wins or loses more,
Bully for Bullington’s blooming at last,
On a Sunday in August that ended fast.
The day is done and Bullington’s won,
Just under W there’s a 1.
by 2X2L on Aug 16, 2010 3:55 PM EDT reply actions 9 recs
Bully for Bullington!
Rec’d like the Edmund Fitzgerald
Given enough velocity even a pig will fly
by MarioVanPeebles Republic of China on Aug 16, 2010 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice work!
And you resisted the temptation to avoid the word “Nantucket.”
Place witty signature here.
Stopgap
is all he needs to be. If he can be functional for a year and a half or so (and by “functional” I mean “not throwing kerosene on the fire every five days”) I can go with that.
The significant problems we have cannot be solved at the same level of thinking with which we created them. -- Albert Einstein
by The Ol' Perfesser on Aug 16, 2010 4:12 PM EDT reply actions
He should get a shot he looked good so far this yaer
In his first Royals start I asked who has more belief in him than Bannister and got a very good response. Now its obvious to everyone. Former top pick has to have talent
by GobbleforCyoung on Aug 16, 2010 7:26 PM EDT reply actions
he needs to be taught a splitter or something
just something to neutralize LH batters a little more. if he can do that, he can be a cheap #4 or #5 for a while.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
It would have been interesting to see what people's attitudes
would have been if Bullington had this game after getting shelled two starts prior…
Anyway, the points about platoon issues, etc. are very good ones. Seems like he through almost all fastballs and sliders.
He does get grounders, but he’s not an extreme groundball guy — 46% for his career is just barely better than average. He K rate is below average but not terrible, but his walk rate is also a bit below average. And he’s not getting enough grounders to make up for that.
On the ZiPS projection — I don’t know how ZiPS handles reliever/starter stuff exactly, but if you look at the “GS” clolumn for both the pre-season and RoS ZiPS projection, Bullington isn’t projected to have any starts, so ZiPS is projecting him as a reliever. The general rule is to “add one” to see how a reliever would do as a starter — so if you think (as ZiPS RoS suggests) he’s about a 4.00 FIP reliever, then you’d say he’s about a 5.00 FIP starter. CHONE’s most recent update includes minor league stats, and does project him as a starter, and gets a similar result — 5.13 component ERA (4.89 park-and-league neutral). So his true talent as a starter (particularly within only two pitches) is about like Bannister’s or Davies, maybe not even quite as “good.”
Of course, Bannister and Davies are both going to be relatively expensive next season, and shouldn’t be tendered (I’d say that I can’t believe they didn’t figure out what to do with Davies already last season… but, well, I can believe it). Leaving Meche aside, the Royals won’t be bad with Greinke (of course) and Hochevar (whatever happened to him? Seemed he was making progress right as he got hurt). a Bullington, SOS, and C’Mon 3,4,5 that’s really three #5s will be horrible to watch, but really not all that different than what we’re dealing with now. It won’t cost anything, O’Sullivan might have some upside, and the team’s not contending anyway, so why not bite the bullet — spending on mediocre FAs isn’t going to help this team anymore in 2011 than it did in 2008, 2009, or 2010. Spend the money on the deep draft and the int’l market. Better to suck cheap than to suck $. Or something.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
BB
was a first overall pick for a reason.
IF he pounds the zone, he will get outs.
Just like any pitcher with good stuff.
If Davies had command he’d be 12-7 with a 4 ERA.
That reason could be
That the Pirates evaluated him wrong.
Being #1 overall means nothing 8 years later.
or that he had surgery after being drafted
www.writersjunction.com
in Santa Monica, CA
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Aug 17, 2010 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions
test
probably too late to see this now
but your photo needs to hosted online somewhere.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
"Do The Royals Have Anything In Bryan Bullington?"
I am a longtime Pirates fan, and even though he was a bust for them, I wish Bryan Bullington all the success in the world. But the answer to the question posed is no.
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