Two Weeks: Enough to Change Minds about Yuni?

I honestly can't remember a two week period where so many people have voiced so many different opinions about Yuniesky Betancourt.  Traditional haters smart writers that so many of us love, including Rany and Posnanski have chimed in lately, offering reassessments or new thoughts relevant to Yuni.  A good friend of mine has recently called my renewed hatred for Yuni (during this hot stretch) unreasonable, and that I should give him a chance.  I, however, still do not find any of this new analysis persuasive, and I STILL do not like Yuni.  I'll show the most relevant stats below, as well as what some of the talking heads have said, followed by where I think we are and why I think all this new talk is dumb.

via isportsweb.com

Shocked that TAKING a pitch is possible, Yuni heads back to the dugout to research the phenonmenon.

2010

OPS: .290/.429= .719

OPS+: 94

WAR: 1.3

UZR: -7.1

Dewan: -12

1970s baseball card: .270/13/61 (!!!)

via 4.bp.blogspot.com

Career

OPS: .297/.396= .693

OPS+: 84

WAR (average):  roughly  +0.7, 3.4 cumulative (excluding short season in 2005)

UZR (average): -8.5 UZR/150

Dewan: subscriber content, F*** it

1970s baseball card (averages): .274/9/57

Rany

"The most surprising thing about his performance (the epic doubleheader), though, was this: in the second game, at nearly 1 in the morning, with Betancourt representing the Royals’ final hope in the ninth – I was able to root for him unabashedly, with no mixed feelings at all. I’ve put my reservations behind me, and learned to embrace Yuni, warts and all. He’s not my kind of player. But he’s still my player. And he’s a better player than I ever thought he’d be."

My reaction:

The point of Rany's post was not that we were wrong about Yuni, but that Dayton Moore may have been right, that Yuni was better than whatever alternatives our organization could muster through 2012.  Bianchi injury aside, this seems plausible, if it weren't for the existence of 29 other shortstops in the majors, 27(ish) of which have better statistical numbers defensively, and 29 of which get on base more.  Yes, Yuni is hot, but he is Yuni-hot.  He's like Drew Barrymore in the Charlie's Angels movies.  However, as Rany was careful to note, he now has less walks than homers, which needs watching, over the course of the next month, for an astonishing statistical anomoly for players with little power that somehow manage 500 PA.

via images.dailyme.com

Here are two guys that have had less walks than homers.  Jacobs in 2005, Olivo in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and 2009.  Yes, it is tough to do when you hit less than 20 homers.

Posnanski

"But he has taught himself some things too. He taught himself to turn on a mistake pitch, hit it off the wall our out of the park (his 13 homers are a career high). He taught himself to concentrate harder on a day-to-day basis — the brain fog moments seemed to be happening less often (though maybe not … this just might have been my new Yuni perspective). Instead of seeing him as a player with talent who was wildly underachieving, I revised my thinking and saw him instead as a player WITHOUT great talent who nevertheless was playing every day in the big leagues. The Royals, I remain convinced, are not going to win with Yuniesky Betancourt as their every day shortstop. But, at the moment, they’re not going to win with the young Honus Wagner as their every day shortstop either.

Point is: The guy, I think, is playing as well as he can play. If that still makes him a below average every day player, well, on this team that hardly makes him unique. After all, catcher Jason Kendall has a 71 OPS+ and still does not have a triple or home run this season. And he not only plays every day, but the Royals hit him in the No. 2 spot in the lineup (since moving to that No. 2 spot 61 games ago, he’s hitting .238/.297/.264 — yes, he’s slugging .264). Yuni has been surpassed as face of the franchise. And I have found myself kind of rooting for him."

via cubanplay.tucubaweb.com

I'm just going to assume this was a first pitch fastball that a pitcher put in the strike-zone for some reason.

My reaction:

I do not want to confuse the issue with the Kendall issue.  RoyalsReview's inning counter on the side tab every day is funny enough and a reminder that we DO, in fact, have bigger fish to fry than Yuni.  Posnanski's point was that Yuni may just be in one of those small sample-size clutch periods of his career where he amasses a small fan-base.  Posnanski even credits Yuni's effort (grit, mental toughness, work ethic, whatever you want to call it), then even saying that may just be his new-found ability to root for Yuni.  This is fine and all, but why does that rooting fan-base include Joe Posnanski and Rany Jazalyeri?  Moreover, why does it include my previously reliable smart baseball friends?  And why do we want kids listening to Ryan and Frank, now Rany and Joe, about how valuable Yuniesky Betancourt is and how he is acceptable, if not praiseworthy?

The takeaway:

Of course, winning games is important, even in lost seasons.  Yuni has helped this year by being clutch in those "fan moments" that people will remember.  He has also been thoroughly and violently cursed by fans as often as any other player for stupid hacks, lack of range, lack of concentration, or obviously make-able plays that were botched.  What is more important?  We HAVE seen A LOT of Yuni for more than a full season to make up our minds, compared to what was out there (stats AND scouts) before the trade.  Is two weeks enough to make a difference in our opinions?  There IS a lesson to this Yuni madness.  I think we are losing sight of this as intelligent baseball fans.

via img14.imageshack.us

Isn't that dog CUTE?  Perhaps we should listen to it...

The vendor and the fans that curse Yuni see a shortstop who has no range.  Most scouts see the same thing.  The statistical gurus and available valuations see a shortstop with no range.  They all see that he is perhaps the worst free-swinger in the game.  He cannot be relied upon to take it the other way to advance a runner, to stay up the middle.  He flatly refuses to walk.  These are known things by now.  Those same scouts, fans, and vendors see the 2010 full of grand slams, the "clutch" hitting.  They revel in it.  Hell, I revel in it.  I like winning as much as the next fan, but why change minds when the only thing the eye cannot see (sample size, perspective, context) still shows the player to be bad, just a lesser shade of bad than before?   Aren't we just talking about sample size and counting stats all over again?

via farm5.static.flickr.com

Look closely, next to the cartoonish face, there are three (!!!) numbers.

To me it comes down to how those three 1970s baseball card statistics are still with us all, as baseball fans.  Whatever the age you readers are at RR, we remember as kids, younger adults, etc. that batting average, homers, and RBIs were the important things.  The old crown scoreboard featured these prominently next to the now-hilarious two-tone picture of the player.  Before Moneyball, before the fat guys in the outfield, before advanced defensive metrics.  We remember those things.  But it is these memories and those statistics that make Yuniesky Betancourt seem valuable.  A shortstop that hits .270 and 15 homers is valuable, he must be!!!  I remember, perhaps one of my earliest Royals game memories, Todd Benzinger hitting a Grand Slam at then Royals Stadium (in 1991 apparently, when I was 5, after looking that up).  Maybe he was on a hot streak at the time, I really don't know.  But I LOVED it.  There is a lot to be said for enjoying the fan moments, but as intelligent fans, we owe it to ourselves to know better.  Leave the fan moments to the kids, those who need them, who do not pay attention to every game.  Do not let those feelings invade the realm of player evaluation.

via openingday.mlblogs.com

It's a long season, and it's hard to remember that in the moment, in the week, in two weeks.  In perspective, careers are longer, and players DO have identities.

We've been subjected to hot streaks lately by many players, most notably Jose Guillen in June 2008.  People were briefly excited (including Posnanski who said something to the effect that it was the most remarkable hot streak he had ever seen, noting the lack of walks) because he was performing, though still not walking.  He regressed to what Jose Guillen was and is.  He is who we thought he was.  The same can be said for Yuniesky Betancourt.  He has been hot since he had a kid, but it didn't teach him (Yuni, not the young Betancourt child) to walk.  He will regress back to Yuni.

via 3.bp.blogspot.com

Let's not let Yuni off the hook.  He is what we thought he was, despite two weeks of acceptable/clutch play.

It IS okay to root for Yuni because he is a Royal, but it is NOT OK to forget why we hated him, why the numbers still hate him.  We can root for him and hope he really has figured out some way to contribute postiively to the team.  1.3 WAR isn't bad in 2010, but there is still a lot of ugly about Yuni's game.  So please do not tell me to stop being negative about Yuni, because we still have to watch him not walk and not cover ground defensively in 2011.

Alternative suggestion:

In the mean-time, Royals players should stagger their baby-making activities over the next six months so at least two players are hot for each two-week stretch in 2011.  Absences/births should be scheduled for off-days to maximize team contribution.  If that isn't sure-fire statistical analysis, then I don't know what is.