Is Joakim Soria Struggling A Bit In 2010? Not Really
by Freneau on Aug 26, 2010 7:18 PM EDT
in Kansas City Royals News
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I've had a lingering feeling that Soria has been a little "down" this season. Although his save/blown save and ERA numbers are fine, it has simply seemed, at times, that Soria hasn't quite been his usually dominant self. Is he? In short, no.
| K/9 | BB/9 | BABIP | |
| 2008 | 8.82 | 2.54 | .215 |
| 2009 | 11.72 | 2.72 | .326 |
| 2010 | 9.50 | 2.33 | .311 |
It's amazing that Soria saw his BABIP absolutely explode between 2008 and 2009, and we barely even noticed. When you strike out 11.72 batters per nine, you can get through that sort of thing. Although Soria hasn't quite maintained that level, he's made up for it by cutting his walks to a career-low level.
Over the last few seasons, Soria has started to give up harder contact, however. In 2010, he's also missed fewer bats. He's made up for those rises by continuing to strand a high rate of runners.
| LD% | Contact% | LOB% | |
| 2008 | 14.5 | 75.1 | 89.5 |
| 2009 | 18.0 | 72.1 | 87.3 |
| 2010 | 18.8 | 79.8 | 90.6 |
When you strike guys out, innings have a way of ending a little easier. I think there's more to be said here, but I'm not sure what. A quick glance at his Pitch F/X data suggests his velocity is basically the same. Perhaps his repertoire has changed, or there's a new scouting report out on him (as has been suggested about Greinke). In any case, he's been a little fortunate to not allow more runs, but not hugely so.
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On that Pitch F/X data
does it say anything about him throwing fewer curveballs, especially curveballs for strikes or for strikeout pitches?
I say this because I feel like the command on what seemed to be his out pitch, the curveball, has been spotty this season. It seems like he used to get a strikeout on that curveball at least every inning he threw in past seasons. This season, I haven’t seen it as much. I will admit that since June, I haven’t been able to catch as many games so I may be wrong in this.
by I need more Esteban on Aug 26, 2010 7:23 PM EDT reply actions
Perceptionally I agree w/ you &
I’ve watced every televised game. Soria has seemed to have lost confidence in the Rainbow maybe bc its been less effective…
by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Aug 26, 2010 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions
He's Hardly Thrown
It for a strike this year, and he’s missing inside with it most of the time. That’s what I remember seeing, anyway. I think he even hit a batter with it. Sounds like a release point problem. I think guys are going up there first pitch swinging a lot because he usually gets ahead with the fastball, and don’t discount the Kendall factor. He gives shitty targets.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Aug 26, 2010 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions
According to Fangraphs pitch types and pitch values
he is throwing it less and it has been a terrible pitch when he does throw it.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
JS's curveball runs-above-average, 2007/08/09/10 (per 100 pitches)
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6941&position=P#pitchtype
6.1 / 2.0 / 4.8 / -4.2
That is a fairly astounding difference.
"....The complex has been made simple, the unfathomable has been made fathomable, chess has turned to checkers and bridge turned into pitch. I feel better about myself after reading your post. Smells are smellier. My pants are looser in the waist....Philip ****ing Fitzsimmons. You brilliantly named sonofabitch...." -- by Nighthawk at the Diner on Aug 15, 2010
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Aug 27, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, huge swing for this year.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Those 90% rates are not going to stick
Rivera has been above 85% just 3 times. Gagne during that monster 3 run stretch didn’t manage it, Hoffman at his peak was an 85% guy.
That 5% equates to just 2 or 3 extra runs in Soria’s case, he is pretty consistent in allowing 55 or so non-HR baserunners a season, but it is still something.
Which goes back to him possibly being a little lucky this season.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
agreed,
He seems like he has been very lucky this season.
"Shot by my own men."
by StonewallPDS on Aug 27, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
I don't know
he’s been above 85 for three seasons in a row now and he’s still relatively young. I doubt every season will be for the rest of his career, but I could see him putting up another 3 season with that strand rate. He relies much more on command than pure stuff.
I hope so.
Earlier in the year, he was throwing more pitchers per inning. If that LOB% goes down, it could hurt.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
It almost seems like this guy
would make a great starting pitcher.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
gotta be honest
I really don’t think he would anymore. I used to be on board with this too.
I really think he would break down if he became a starter and plus, if this curveball command thing keeps up, I think that would be an issue as a starter as well.
(Crap, I hope I didn’t start the 450th Soria as a starter argument at RR)
by I need more Esteban on Aug 27, 2010 12:28 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it is finally dead and I was a huge proponent of moving him in the past.
He barely holds up as a reliever. No on the starter.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 27, 2010 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
He seems to make things a little too interesting this year...
he’s been getting really lucky imo.
Chiefs Might
by chicks_love_chiefs on Aug 27, 2010 12:21 PM EDT reply actions
I really think we over rate Soria anyway
I was looking at Eric Gagne earlier. In 2003 he totalled a 4.5 WAR in 82 innings. Thats an excellent season by a SP, and significantly more than double anything Soria has ever done. With an 84% LOB rate as well.
He’s 12th in MLB relievers this year, behind such notable names as Leo Nunez, Sean Marshall and Matt Belisle.
He’s a very good pitcher, but nothing more. The Soria mania kind of baffles me a bit.
Ooops
Soria had 2.4 in ‘07. Hasn’t come close to that since.
by kcbottom9th on Aug 27, 2010 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Part of that is Soria's team is awful.
But yeah, he’s still a luxury while living in shanty.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
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