The Chances of Scoring Only 4 Runs with 23 Base Runners. Looking More Into Friday Nights Royal's Loss

by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 29, 2010 9:55 PM EDT

In case you missed from Friday night here is the box score:

Final - 8.27.2010	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
Kansas City Royals	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	4	16	0
Cleveland Indians	0	6	0	1	3	0	0	5	X	15	17	0
WP: Josh Tomlin (2 - 3) LP: Bryan Bullington (1 - 3)

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That line is missing the 6 Royals that were walked by the Indians and 1 hit by pitch. Thirteen of the hits were singles along with 2 doubles and a home run.

Tom Tango has a great tool that a person can use to enter a player's, team's or game's scoring line and show how many runs should be scored given a number of hits, walks, etc. Entering the game data in the calculator here are some of the highlights:

Average runs scored for the game: 13.1 runs

Chances of scoring 4 or less runs: 6.0%

I think that is enough. It sucks to follow a consistently bad team and when they are unlucky on top of that, it makes following them almost down right miserable. Maybe Dubya will have some good news in the Minor League Report.

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Comments

Interesting calculation

Not to be “that guy” – but the Royals actually had 23 baserunners, counting the HBP of Kendall, which would lower that percentage chance even a bit more.

"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009

"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876

by loyal2sdad on Aug 29, 2010 11:48 PM EDT reply actions

Great, making it even worse.

Re-running the numbers now.

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 29, 2010 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions

Another data point for

IT ALL HAPPENS HERE

"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009

"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876

by loyal2sdad on Aug 30, 2010 12:09 AM EDT reply actions

...and with the 13 runs they still would have lost

yikes

by trauty on Aug 30, 2010 4:36 AM EDT reply actions

Speaking of small sample size...

“Tom Tango has a great tool that a person can use”

TWSS

Free Brayan Pena!

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Aug 30, 2010 9:35 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Best use of TWSS ever.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Aug 30, 2010 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Thank you. It stuck out to me immediately.

TWSS! LMAO!

Free Brayan Pena!

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Aug 31, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions

QUESTION

HOW DO YOU CHANGE YOUR DISPLAYED NAME???? I CAN’T FIND IT UNDER PROFILE SETTINGS OR ANY OF THE OTHER TABS….

by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Aug 30, 2010 2:51 PM EDT reply actions

MUST START A NEW ONE!

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Aug 30, 2010 3:17 PM EDT up reply actions

You can ask the managers of SBN.

If you have problems, let me know.

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 30, 2010 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions

So you had your baby?

Congratulations!

The only people who really know where [the edge] is are the ones who have gone over it.

by SagehenMacGyver47 on Aug 30, 2010 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I think you're right...

they gave birth to a bright and healthy lowercase letter.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Aug 30, 2010 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions

inconceivable

by 2X2L on Aug 30, 2010 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

I see what you did there.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Aug 30, 2010 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

Nice, those are both really funny...

But I was just going to get rid of the space & make ROLLERSKATE 1 word. Now you can have fun w/ that one too….

by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Aug 30, 2010 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Heh.

You’re probably best off following Jeff’s advice above. There’s a Contact Us link at the bottom of the page. I didn’t see anyway to do it through the settings either.

"I DARE you to make less sense."

by dejackso on Aug 30, 2010 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions

And it's also true

that you can set up an entirely new account. This site has (I think) a 1-day wait before you can post using that new account, however. On the other hand it might take longer for an administrator somewhere to change the name of an existing account; I don’t know.

by 2X2L on Aug 30, 2010 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions