Checking In On The Royals Outfield Defense
by Freneau on Aug 3, 2010 4:41 PM EDT
in Kansas City Royals News
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PrintHere are the top AL OFs as ranked by UZR:
The Royals are 6th, as you can see above. Sixth is alright. The Royals are the last team with a positive number (i.e. their outfield is still saving runs defensively as opposed to giving them up) but they're also well behind the top three.
Still, considering where we've been, this is progress. Of course, the outfield the rest of the way will look very different, so who knows where we'll be at the end of the season.
Here are the individual numbers, by innings played:
- Pods (808 innings): -1.5
- DDJ (762): 3.0
- MITCH (581): 2.0
- Ankiel (209): -2.3
- Bloomy (189): -0.3
- Guillen (161): 2.6
Yes, that's Guillen with a positive 2.6, the second best figure on the team.
Basically, here's how I look at it: to begin with, the Royals had/have a decent OF foundation with DDJ & MITCH. Those guys ended up playing a fair amount, and it helped the defense be competent. Pods shows up with a slight negative number here, which may be a little harsh, may not be. Given how much he played, a negative -1.5 isn't the end of the world. Ankiel/Bloomy/Guillen... well, all kinds of weirdness there. It's important to keep in mind that those three guys, combined, have just 659 OF innings, less than Pods or DDJ had individually. Their numbers perfectly wash each other away.
So about Guillen... what do you guys think? It wouldn't stun me if he was legitimately better this season, but I'm having a hard time buying that he's a defensive ace out there.
Moving forward, we're looking at two months of Gordon/Blanco/Grab Bag. It'll be a small sample, and I don't expect much difference. I'm guessing Gordon will post Pods like numbers, Blanco will be ok, and RF will be it's own weird universe.
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Consider me pleasantly surprised
I’m amazed our OF defense on the year has actually saved runs what with the adventures of Guillen, Ankiel, Pods, and Blomquist. With more playing time for Mitch and Blanco, these numbers will also be getting even better.
by Soria's Unibrow on Aug 3, 2010 12:31 PM EDT reply actions
Obligatory small sample size/defensive stats accumulate differently than offensive stats warning
So about Guillen… what do you guys think? It wouldn’t stun me if he was legitimately better this season, but I’m having a hard time buying that he’s a defensive ace out there.
He made a couple of good out of zone plays early on, and with the way defensive stats slowly accumulate, it may take a couple hundred innings for those to even out. Defensive stats accumulate slowly because outfielders only get a few chances per game, and most are plays that just about every outfielder either makes or cannot make, so they have no real effect on how the player rates.
Guillen has only played 161 innings in the outfield, which is like looking at a batter’s numbers over a road trip. Betancourt did the same thing early in the season, and now his UZR is -6.
To show a players true talent level, you need close to three years of data. As a Royal, Guillen has played about 1600 innings in the outfield and his UZR is -21.6. That tells you more than just the 161 innings this year.
by Gopherballs on Aug 3, 2010 12:35 PM EDT reply actions 2 recs
It's certainly important to keep the sample size in mind, but Guillen's not going to fit
into our preferred sample size criteria. Not only is he in a steep athletic decline-based on his age and what we’ve seen on the field-but he’s been injured on and off so frequently that his 1600 Royals innings are comprised of some healthy Guillen, some slightly-injured Guillen, and some all-but-immobilized Guillen.
So we KNOW his 2.6 so far this season is not his true talent going forward, but I say what we can expect for the remainder of the season comes down in large part to those who have seen him play: how much of his “good” play so far was luck/coincidence and how much has been him actually looking better than in season past (or not looking better, as the case may be).
www.writersjunction.com
in Santa Monica, CA
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Aug 3, 2010 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions
Right.
But you also aren’t necessarily trying to measure talent here. These numbers give you an idea of how the Royals OF has performed as a group this year, reading beyond that does give you small samples, and not really what we’re looking at.
I’m surprised at the 6th ranking, I would peg them below the median at 9th or worse. But then again, I don’t really watch a whole lot of other teams, I just know that pretty much every team the Royals play looks better than them out there.
pretty much every team =
Baltimore. Man they were bad in the outfield in that series.
I like how Pods and Ankiel are the worst.
I knew Pods was bad this year, but Ankiel in limited time actually beat him? That’s pretty special right there.
Our outfield was a bunch of divers because they miss read way too many hits.
They look good on TV, but just can’t get to many balls.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 3, 2010 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions
The game against the Twins
with Gordon in his first game in LF, Bloomy in CF and Guillen in RF had to be one of the worst defensive outfields in the history of whatever, right? It was the 19-1 debacle and the OF defensive definitely contributed to the onslaught.
We have met the enemy, and he is us.
I'm blown away by that!
No way are we that good in the OF over the course of the season. But, other teams must be worse.
Coffee. The NEW Performance Enhancing drug for Sport's Writers. Just ask Ken Rosenthal.
A non-Royals observation
Couldn’t help but notice 3 of those teams are headed for the playoffs.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
meh
I think this just shows why the eye test is still important in judging defense. I don’t mean a scout at one game either, I mean an organization watching video and games of it’s own players.
Clearly defensive stats have a long way to go, this just doesn’t pass the smell test for me.
Apart from Guillen
Who has far too few innings to count anyway, all the individual numbers pass my eye test at least.
Yeah, Willie Bloomquist once hit 364/364/545 over the course of month
The offensive stats are fine — the sample size is the problem.
Disagree
DDJ and Mitch definitely pass the eye test as above avg defenders to me, and Podsednik, while not great, was serviceable (a tick below avg seems right to me there)
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
How come every time a ball was hit near the wall/slightly over his head Pods misplayed it like a Little Leaguer?
He’s serviceable, but in that below average, use him because you have to, kind of way.
The eye test may show them at not so good, but others are much worse
The Orioles were horrible the last series
-14.1 UZR
Eye and numbers seem to match. I think as fans of one team, this is about the only way to compare teams defensive. They can’t be evaluated in a vacuum.
This is one problem I have with UZR (and other defensive stats) is that they are zeroed out each year. I wish there one out there that shows if players as a whole are better on defense from year to year.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 3, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions
They can’t be evaluated in a vacuum.
It's dark and dusty in there.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Aug 3, 2010 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions
A Royals observation:
Team DER is only .680 so far this year, which ranks #25 in baseball.
Probably means that while the OF is basically average or perhaps a tick above, the IF defense is still dragging the overall team defense down.
This SHOULD come as no surprise to any observers of this team – but it makes you wonder, considering the refusal all year to play Aviles at SS and Getz at 2B, which would be the best defensive middle infield we could possibly deploy, IMHO.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
-10.3 UZR as a team, so IF is -14 UZR
The infield has been worse than the OF for sure. So far the eyeball test is working.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 3, 2010 1:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Let's try a sarcastic reply:
Let's sign more FB pichers!
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
I hated Pods in the outfield
He never seemed to read a ball right. With Guillen, he’s got the skills, maybe, but he’s too creaky to put them into action.
Place witty signature here.
Hillman Was Forced
To play the best defensive OF he had. My eyes told me Rocky was worse than his number, and Mitch seems about right. If Yost continues to play Alex, Gregor and Mitch we’ll probably be at least as good as we’ve been if not better.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
Defensive stats are
a joke. Give me “plus hands and plus hands” over any number telling me that Jose Guillen’s an above average fielder.
@Sarcastic comment@
It works great in the subject line
@I have@
www.writersjunction.com
in Santa Monica, CA
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Aug 3, 2010 3:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey wait,
you’re in Santa Monica? How are you a Royals fan?
grew up in KC
www.writersjunction.com
in Santa Monica, CA
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Aug 3, 2010 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Does UZR take into account arm strength?
And Im sure he got 10 bonus points for that catch against the wall.
C'MON CHEN!!! ---Will Ferrell
Ultimate Zone Rating =
Double Play Runs (for infielders) + Range Runs + Error Runs.
or
Arm Runs (for outfielders) + Range Runs + Error Runs.
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