Royals Review Community Prospect Rankings Who's #8?
by kcscoliny on Aug 31, 2010 9:56 AM EDT
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PrintDwyer wins #7 in easy fashion. Expect this poll to be a bit more of a mix. Louis Coleman would be my next addition unless some others would like to be seen.
#1 Wil Myers C 2009 3rd Round Pick currently at A+ Wilmington .334/.434/.544 16 HR Career Minor league stats
#2 Eric Hosmer 1b #3 Overall pick 2008 currently at AA NW Arkansas .292/.372/.469 23 HR
#3 Mike Montgomery SP Supplementary Pick #36 Overall 2008 3.06 FIP 242 IP 214 Ks 72 BBs 171 Hits allowed
#4 Mike Moustakas 3b #2 Overall pick 2007 Omaha Royal .279/.336/.492 67 HR
#5 John Lamb SP 5th Round Pick 2008 3.22 FIP 205 IP 9.35 K/9 2.63 BB/9
#6 Danny Duffy SP 3rd Round Pick 2007 3.04 FIP 311.3 IP 10.32 K/9 2.92 BB/9
#7 Chris Dwyer SP 4th Round Pick 2009 3.63 FIP 99.3 IP 10.15 K/9 4.35 BB/9
Christian Colon - 1st Round Pick #4 Overall 2010 - The Royals signed Colon very quickly and have moved him to Wilmington and Frawley Field, a notoriously difficult stadium for right handed hitters to hit in. Colon got off to a slow start in the Carolina league putting together a .683 OPS in July but has hit better lately hitting in 9 of his last 10 games and putting up an OPS of .811 this month. Colon's biggest question mark is his defense as alot of scouts viewed him as more of a 2b than SS and he doesn't seem to be dispelling those thoughts so far making 13 errors in just 48 games. His range is said to be average at best and his speed is probably below average for a shortstop, Colon best case scenario is that he becomes a Jeterlike defender up the middle with limited range but good hands and an above average bat for a SS.
Brett Eibner 2nd round pick 2010 #54 overall- This years 2nd round pick Eibner is a multi-tool centerfielder from the University of Arkansas has a great arm that has hit high 90s on the gun when he pitched and showed plenty of power at the University of Arkansas hitting 22 home runs his last season there. Eibner appears to have some struggles making contact as he struckout in 26% of his plate appearances between college and the Cape Cod League and will need to continue to refine his approach. At 6'4 210 lbs with big pop, speed and arm strength he definitely has alot of upside and that potential was enough of a reason the Royals took him in the 2nd round and gave him low first round type money. He'll start soon in Idaho Falls and should be ready to play in Wilmington next season.
Tim Collins Acquired in Rick Ankiel/ Kyle Farnsworth Trade- We’ve all heard the stuff about Collins 5'7 155 lbs small, diminutive, doesn't look like a prospect but that just doesn't seem to matter as he continues to overpower at every level he's been. Collins arsenal of pitches reads more like that of a starter than reliever but with his size don't expect a switch anytime soon. Collins fastball touches 94 while regularly sitting 91-92 mph his motion is deceptive and appears almost like a short left-handed Tim Lincecum. After the fastball Collins features a plus 12-6 curveball and average changeup and is also working on a cut fastball to go against righties. While I usually go against rating a reliever in the Top 10 of most prospect systems especially a system as deep as the Royals, young Collins (20) is hard to ignore and could become a quality lefty arm in KC next season.
218.2 IP 324 K 95 BB 139 H 13.3 K/9 1.07 WHIP 2.51 FIP
Aaron Crow 1st round pick 2009 #12 overall- Last season’s first round pick shined in spring training but has struggled in his first stint as a minor leaguer. Reports are that Crow's fastball and slider combo are still solid but that he still hasn't found a third pitch to add to the mix. While he has been a victim of some bad luck having a 15.8% HR/FB rate it is more concerning that his change up hasn't come along yet. As a two pitch power righty his best role could be in the bullpen where his low to mid 90s fastball and tight slider could really shine. Crow did take a year away from baseball after not signing with the Washington Nationals after the 2008 draft and perhaps this is just a bump in the road.
Cheslor Cuthbert International free agent signing 2009- Nicaragua’s top prospect probably ever Cheslor's father groomed him to be a pro baseball player from the second he was born. As a 17 year old he got off to a decent start hitting for good power and showing an advanced approach. In his first 10 games at Idaho Falls he went 14 for 44 with 10 extra base hits, not too bad for a youngster facing opponents 3 and 4 years older than him. He's got a great frame and could add to it as he continues to grow; he'll like start next season in Burlington (IA) as an 18 year old. Since there isn't much info on him here are a couple quotes from the Royals. "At the plate, he's special," Silverio said. "He's got a major league bat. He's got power. He's got a good idea at the plate. He's got gap-to-gap power. He's got a lot of upside, a lot of raw tools right now.
"He's definitely going to be a plus player. His running speed is average and he's going to get bigger. He's going to be a solid defensive third baseman. He's going to stay at third, I think." Cuthbert is listed at 6-foot-1, 190 pounds, but Silverio said he expects him to grow another inch and add 10 pounds as he matures.
"I think he has a chance to hit for both a high average and power," said Royals director of minor league operations Scott Sharp.
Johnny Giavotella 2nd Rd Pick #49 overall 2008- I don't like this choice but a few have asked for him so I obliged. Giavotella is having a monster 2nd half this season for the Naturals .375/.435/.534 after posting a .727 first half OPS. It's a great second half that has restored his status as a possible top Royals prospect after struggling in the RH difficult Frawley field (.674 Hm OPS vs .784). Gio has a patient approach drawing 57 walks compared to only 63 strikeouts and has been a significantly better second half performer in both of his two full seasons in the minors. That is a positive sign that he is patient and can make adjustments after seeing pitchers multiple times which definitely is a positive sign. A not so positive sign is Giavotella's poor defense which doesn't seem to be getting much better with 13 errors in 126 AA games. Gio according to BA has poor footwork a slow first step and poor range to his right although he does possess an above average arm.
.294/.370/.415 16 HR 145 BB/ 146 K
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I can't vote for a reliever with some of those guys on the board
But I think Tim Collins will win this one :/
Hopefully Im proven wrong and he turns out to be awesome at the major league level, but there’s too much upside with some of those other guys.
I think Collins is the new kid on the block
They are always better than the guys we have… just check college recruiting once in a while. :)
That being said he is definitely a solid player, but not better than what we have on the board. I think he is above Crow, but none of the others.
I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals
I agree he's solid, and it may be because he's new
But I have trouble putting him over Cuthbert, Colon, or Eibner. Maybe over Johnny.
Looks like Collins will win #9 :/
Colon
Solid tools across the board I think he’ll stick at SS. I wouldn’t put too much stock into his stats this year, he’s coming off a full season of baseball after rehabbing to come back from a broken leg.
I’m expecting a breakout in NWA next season.
Also, can’t see how anyone could vote for a reliever over Colon or Crow.
Well Crow could be a reliever next year ;)
I guess it matters how much you weigh being ML ready to projectability.
Sure
Crow’s downside is a reliever. What’s the downside for Coleman and Collins?
I think the latter two are great, but I still can’t see putting either ahead of Crow at this point.
I took Colon, Cuthbert would be my next choice
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
Me too
They’re both pretty close. Depends on what you favor – close to the big leagues/upside, premium position/premium power.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
He would be a good one to add.
I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals
To be honest
I bet Moose would be higher and Monty lower if you did this poll today. Votes can be fickle.
My opinion is to do top 10 now, then perhaps do more after the season is over and we have the whole seasons stats to look at (RBI count, batting avg, etc….kidding).
I voted Moose and Collins higher than most people
I really value being MLB ready over potential. I read too much BS on potential over the years, I live to see actual results.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Aug 31, 2010 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I live to see actual results.
I hope to, but at my age I’m beginning to have my doubts.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Aug 31, 2010 5:13 PM EDT up reply actions
This is a good point.
What do we value in our prospects? The ceiling? The floor? The closer to the Majors? The youngest in the current league?
I’ve heard all these things argued. What should we use?
I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals
Whatever you want
We have to remember that prospect ranks are abstract things. Nothing turns on them in the “real world” on the field. You don’t get a performance boost for being higher up.
That being so, go to town on it and do it as you please.
The correct response is really who will be the most valuable MLB player right?
The other questions are all secondary. Do you think a 17 year old kid who has glowing reports will be a better MLB player than a 20 year old destroying AA? etc.
Giavotella is 23 already played three seasons of college
so his results aren’t really that impressive considering he’s been in the minors for 2 and half seasons now.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
I assume he's talking about Cuthbert (17) and Hosmer (20)
That or it’s just hypothetical.
And I don’t see the connection, because clearly a 20 year old destroying the ball in AA is going to be a top prospect over pretty much any 17 year old (not named Bryce Harper)
Voted Collins and here is why-
If Collins could be a closer at the mlb level, then that kicks the door open on a trade of Soria. That in turn would free up cash to grab a FA as well.
So Collins being a stud, could allow you to add Jesus Montero and maybe SP John Garland for example.
Um
That doesn’t change how good or otherwise Collins actually is. Which means it does nothing good or bad to his prospect status (for what that even matters anyway).
If your logic here were correct
Then Alex would be playing 3B.
Maybe
But does Moose have more prospect value just because there is a spot open for him on the big league roster?
It shouldn’t matter. Talent is independent of opportunity.
Could be that we should ask it a different way
Which player will have the best mlb career?
Which player will help the Royals win more games?
Thanks for putting Johnny G. on there.
I voted for Colon, but I still think if Eibner and Crow in the running, Johnny should get a look too.
IMO you cant vote for Eibner as he hasn't even played yet. That's just my opinion.
Crow’s been awful, at some point performance has to factor in.
Sure you can
It’s not revolutionary to vote for a overpaid 2nd round pick into the top 10 rankings, who projects athleticism in centerfield that will hit with power.
And if one needs to play to be ranked, where is Bryce Harper on the Nationals rankings? #11?
I dont think Johnny’s ceiling is very high myself, and I like ceiling more than major league readyness (although, I think Cuthbert may trump Eibner there).
I am speaking specifically about Eibner.
Too many question marks; I have to see him in pro ball before I can take him seriously as a top prospect.
When he was drafted, I asked if he was a top ten prospect. Every last person who responded said no way and I think Klassen said that if Eibner was top 10 we were in serious trouble. What changed? He hasn’t done anything. I am curious as to how people are changing opinions of him and moving him up without him actually playing. Is this more a matter of other players moving down? If so, why not move up guys who are, I don’t know, actually playing?
Then, specifically to Johnny G, how has having a good second half in NWA move him to the top 10?
As kcscoliny and other have pointed out, Johnny has subpar defense but a decent bat. Johnny has a ton of ? marks as well, such as “can he continue to hit over a full season” or “can he play passable defense at 2b” or “is he getting to old.”
Obviously, if you only value actual results then Johnny is a better prospect. But I dont see how a poor defensive 2B with a decent bat is superior to a centerfielder with speed that projects as a power hitter.
And as I understand it, it’s not Eibner’s fault he hasn’t been able to play, as Selig has been making it so people who sign over slot can’t sign early.
He was top 20 before, right? Why can't he move up?
And I’ve never said put him in the top 10. I said he belongs in the conversation. Eibner will likely be as old as JG when he’s in AA. He’s also considered a fringe average hitter and not a lock to stay in CF. So the questions about Eibner are the same, more or less, as JG only he hasn’t played an inning. JG’s actual professional track record means more to me.
We're going in circles here
You’re basing a lot off of a few months in a batter friendly park, Im basing a lot off of unproven potential from a new draft pick.
I can agree Johnny deserves to be in the coversation, but I think Eibner should be ranked higher than JG. That’s my opinion, and Im not alone in it (as Im sure you’re not either).
Fair enough.
I recognize the consensus for Eibner, you are definitely not alone in your position.
Johnny's performance hasn't been all that hot until the 2nd half
of this season. Age plays a big factor Johnny for his play in college should perform better than he has but I’ll cut some slack because of the tough hitting environments he has been at. His defense though is very lacking which lowers him to the lower half of the Top 20 for me.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
True.
You’ve seen Johnny play, and I haven’t. I think his performance and his value as a 2B makes him worth more than we’ve given him credit for. If his D is really that bad, I retract my advocacy as a top prospect.
I have Soren Petro on in the background
I think he just said Eric Hosmer has been seen taking fly balls in the outfield in practice. True? Or is this just part of everyone shagging fly balls during BP? I’d be kinda curious seeing him transition to OF just to increase his value on the positional spectrum.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
If it is, I can't figure out why they would wait until now.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Probably because Kila has proven to be an allstar 1B
Need to move someone to the OF
So whether or not the Royals want to get the most value out of one of their top 5 prospects
has to do with Kila?
With the Royals, I might actually buy that.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
I think the Kila comment was a joke.
Now, Clint Robinson, on the other hand…
Seriously, though, if Hosmer can actually play a decent OF, that would be maximizing his value.
Let me explain it to you, warden
This is the same organization that had Butler at 3B until he was in AAA, then moved him to LF in time to play in the 2nd largest OF space (behind SD) in all of MLB, and THEN, finally, realized he should be a 1B (if not merely a DH).
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
It was the Allard Baird regime who was trying to play Billy in the OF
he’s been playing 1b since GMDMs team took over.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
Not completely true
He played the whole of 2006, even after DM arrived in the OF, and played 27 games in 2007 there too.
coliny, in either his 1st or 2nd year in the bigs
he actually played a handful of big league games in LF
Just think how ludicrous that is, now that we have seen him in person, and we aren’t professional scouts!
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
He played 32 games in the OF
in 2007 even if you count the entire 2nd half on GMDM thats far fewer games at other positions than the Baird regime.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
Should Noel Arguelles be on the list?
I know he hasn’t thrown a pitch, but his upside ranks higher than most if he gets healthy.
Are we even sure he exists?
I’ve heard him and Sidd Finch share a condo on South Beach.
I actually saw him in ST throw.
I put up a video of it on youtube. I never really expect him to throw in the majors.
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by Jeff Zimmerman on Sep 1, 2010 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm making another appeal for Louis Coleman
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
Voted for Colon
I wouldn’t add Arguelles or Eibner until we are outside the top 10. Two guys who haven’t played at all even though they are scouted and talented. I would pick Collins, Cuthbert, Crow and Coleman over both of them. Giavotella is a 11-15 guy as is Melville for me.
Where does Derrick Robinson fit 16-20?
Not top 10, or even 25 but
What is the deal with Tyler Gatrell? I know it is Arizona, but 40 K’s in 21 innings is pretty good.
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=596853
http://herdzone.cstv.com/sports/m-basebl/spec-rel/061010aab.html
23 years old
don’t get too excited. Ventura and Yambati are the intriguing ones on that team
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
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