Royals Drop Series In Seattle; The DyNEDsty Continues
by Freneau on Aug 8, 2010 10:03 PM EDT
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PrintIt's going to take time. That's how I feel about Ned Yost and the supposed "youth movement" that's kinda sorta going on with the Royals right now. When it comes down to it, the Royals are still a pretty misguided organization and a pretty cowardly one at that. We just saw Dayton have a really good fortnight, but that doesn't mean everything's going to be logical right away. This is the Royals. Alex Gordon and Kila are just pups... just 26 year old pups. Playing them too much would just be insane.
Anyway, I really shouldn't be too negative about the lineup today. Pena got a start, albeit at DH, and we were also spared from seeing Yuni in the lineup. Nevertheless...
I have no idea why Willie Bloomquist has become a sure thing in the lineup whenever the Royals face a left-hander, but it's clearly something that Yost believes in. Bloomquist is a career .270/.333/.364 hitter against southpaws, which I guess is "good" or something. Any time you can get that .700 OPS bat into the lineup, even if its a meaningless game against the Mariners in August, you do it.
Sure, Gordon's numbers against lefties are worse (.218/.285/.368) but they also, still, don't mean much. 41% of Gordon's Major League PAs are still from his rookie year and 80% are from years 1-2. I know everyone's convinced Gordon's future is now set in stone, but the fact remains that, at the Major League level, he essentially hasn't played in two seasons. His platoon splits are no where close to being defined, and even if he hits .000/.000/.000 against lefties the rest of this season, it's better for everyone that he gets those chances than Willie Bloomquist. I dunno, maybe I'm crazy for wishing Gordon could simply be treated like beloved team mascot not matter what, Chris Getz. Oh, and you can cross apply all of this to Kila as well.
Obviously, with some guys, the men in charge are always going to fixate on what they can't do. Always. With others (Getz, Willie, Kendall, Yuni) the focus is going to be on whatever it is they (supposedly) do well. Fun.
Frankly, I still don't think Gordon & Kila have a future with the Royals. I think that decision has already been made at some level, so I don't know why I care. We'll have more stopgaps in this winter, and probably another trade. There might be a youth movement in a few years, but I don't see one coming, full scale, any time soon. Not when great options like Willie Bloomquist are around.
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I’m with Robert Ford on your first few points. Pena isn’t any good, and fans want to bash Yuni daily, but then give Aviles a pass for the same EXACT lack of power at the plate and mistakes in the field. Not really fair.
Pena is not part of this team’s future, who cares if he is younger than Kendall? Young players ONLY deserve at-bats if they have proven at any level they deserve a serious shot at the big league club. Pena’s sub .200 BA warrants nothing…
Bloomquist doesn’t warrant a spot in the lineup on a daily basis, Gordon needs those at-bats if the Royals think he will be a part of the lineup in the future… He needs those at-bats if they expect to get anything for him in trade… The ONLY way he shouldn’t get those at-bats is if the Royals don’t plan to offer him arbitration, and let him walk.
Have to agree
Yuni and Aviles have both played equally poor but the fans reactions is more of a antiorganization reaction. Watching games and listening to games on the radio you hear constant Yuni propaganda and its tiring whether its right or wrong its natural for us to root against him.
As for Brayan Pena it is pretty clear he will not be on the team in the future but pointing to his sub .200 average as evidence in his incredibly sporadic playing time is ridiculous. Lucas May is out of options I heard and will more than likely be the backup next season if he can beat Brayan out in the spring. To play Kendall as much as they do is idiotic considering his advanced age and the fact that he sucks.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
Mike has been bad
But lets not let that cloud the fact that Yuni has been far worse, in both halves of the inning.
Lets not forget that yuni is also playing everyday
And at the same position.im not saying aviles isn’t done, but it would be nice if the royals gave him a chance
"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.
by RoyalPug on Aug 9, 2010 12:27 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Sub .200 BA doesn't mean much when you've been given 3-4 ABs once a week all season (50 PAs total).
I think anyone would have trouble filling that role. Last year in limited time he was a league average hitter. Kendall is definitely not, yet the Royals play Kendall every day. I know Pena’s not an answer, but Kendall isn’t either.
Aviles has been terrible this year. No excuses there.
yea...
its not personal against Kendall, and its not even a Pena thing, for me, its just the mentality that says, “we’re playing Kendall every day, he’s really good” when there’s no evidence that he’s good at anything
Aviles has definitely sucked this year, but he’s also not playing every day. heading into today, Yuni had 388 PAs… Aviles has 281
I don't know about Kila but for some reason I think Gordon will convince them to keep him
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
i'd be stunned if they both weren't in the opening day lineup next year
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
by doublestix on Aug 8, 2010 10:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Gordon will be
I’d be suprised if Kila is, unless he really lights on fire down the stretch. Lots of mediocre vets to catch Dayton’s eye this fall.
My money is on Lyle Overbay.
Overgay Is Destiny
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Aug 9, 2010 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions
you missed a word
Lots of mediocre vets to catch Dayton’s leering eye this fall.
Stay thirsty, my friends - for Kool-Aid !!!!!!
Ditto.
I think they’ll both get a season to show their direction (upward or downward). – TL
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
Wouldn't surprise me in the least.
We’ll get somebody like Jesse Chavez or Mike Jacobs in return. Hell, the receiving team may feel generous and give us both.
i strongly doubt it
won’t say w/ 100% certainty with Kila, and i wouldn’t have a problem with dealing him for a decent other piece, but it would shock me also.
i know some of you folks want to think there’s some grand conspiracy against Gordon, but there isn’t. he’ll be a Royal next year and probably years beyond that.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
Maybe no conspiracy
But a fundemental under-valuing. They moved him and his perfectly acceptable defense and bat at 3B to become a sub-standard offensive and defensive outfielder (they won’t even lock him in RF or LF).
If they thought highly of him, he’d be the everyday 3B right now. That they shunted and continue to shunt him around doesn’t say much about the value they place on him.
They might not actively shop him, and I doubt they do. But i doubt it takes much for some smart GM wanting to take a flyer to prise him away.
on Kila...
for me, I view him like Maier. I don’t think he’s going to be a great firstbaseman/dh but I do think that he can be a decent player making the league minimum that might as well play
which brings up a question i was going to ask
how good do we expect Kila to be? everyone has always been on the OMG PLAY KILA thing and no one really has said if they thing he’ll be good, great, whatever.
and i actually agree w/ your assessment of Kila. i think he’ll be good, better if you platoon him, but nothing outstanding.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
When Gload Is
The standard…………
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Aug 9, 2010 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
im in the minority i think...
but i dont feel like he’ll be much better than gload
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Aug 9, 2010 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Even if that is the case, it would have been an upgrade over Jacobs
and will also be an upgrade over what Guillen did since the end of Guillen’s hot start (April 24). For the minimum, I’d take that production. ZiPS Rest of Season Projection has him at a .335 wOBA, which isn’t terrible. He’d be 6th on the team behind Wilson B, Billy, DDJ, Ankiel, and Pods. Seeing as how half that list is gone or injured, he’d be #3.
I'm not sure if ZIPS ROS considers Kila's 2010 minor league performance
If it does not, his minor league performance would likely bump up the ZIPS ROS projection.
CHONE rest of season has Kila at 254/366/433, or about 2.6 WAR over a full season (assuming he played 1B and had essentially average defense). I think a 1.5 to 2.5 WAR range sounds about right, recognizing however he has a decent chance of washing out since he relies so much on walks, which often do not traslate well.
As discussed several times previously, Kila has a weird profile. He does not quite fit the three true outcomes — he certainly walks, and has good but not great power, but he relatively speaking, he does strikes out a lot. In the past , the best comp I could come up with was pre-career year Luke Scott (swapping some batting average for walks and with less power). Scott would probably be a best case scenario. AxDxMx recently cited Daric Barton as a pretty good comp (with a lesser glove and probably swapping some OBP points for some SLG points).
The real selling points with Kila are that he is free and has some interesting batting skills, but he needs playing time to find out if those skills will translate to the majors.
ZiPS RoS doesn't consider minor leagues
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score.
Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.
by Matt Klaassen on Aug 9, 2010 3:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Feelings Don't Matter
Just let him prove it by running him out there every day and look at the results when he’s done.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Aug 9, 2010 1:03 PM EDT up reply actions
Gordon is getting non-tendered
since we can’t pay him more… then we’ll dump money into Eric Hinske or Omar Infante or someone
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo (follow me, because reloading my twitter page 40 times a day is kind of creepy)
and Kila is going to Japan
a portion of the problem is that Ned plays favorites and gives too much playing time to Bloomquist (who is getting his bonus any day now)
Follow me on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/bhindepmo (follow me, because reloading my twitter page 40 times a day is kind of creepy)
Gordon
WPA-WAR = 1.35 in < 100 PA
Surely GMDM recognizes how clutch he is.
by Trey Hillman's Chin on Aug 8, 2010 11:25 PM EDT reply actions
I still think
that the Royals have already decided on a Gordon/Fields platoon for next year, when Fields is healthy. The numbers actually make sense, if you’re convinced that Gordon will never hit lefties (I’m in favor of letting him actually prove it, of course, but the Royals seemingly aren’t).
Gordon and lefties
The evidence since Gordon’s call up does not favor the conclusion that the Royals don’t think he can hit lefties. Since 7-23, the Royals have faced 6 left-handed starters. Gordon has not started in two of these games (7-28 vs. Brian Duensing, 8-8 vs. Jason Vargas). So its not like they have sat him for every game against an LHP. And both of those games where he did not play were day games following night games and against LHP that are pretty tough on lefties (Duensing .145 against vs. .276 against righties, Vargas .185 vs. .263).
A more likely reason Gordon sat on these two days may be because of the heel injury he has (KC Star article: http://www.kansascity.com/2010/08/08/2137185/royals-notebook-gordon-believes.html). Maybe Yost thought that sitting him for a couple of day games against tough lefties would give his heel time to heal.
I am not saying that this is the reason. Just that there may be other factors here besides lefty vs. lefty.
Plus, these are the only two games that Gordon has had off since his call up on 7-23. That also suggests that Yost may have been trying to find him some days off to rest his heel.
And what better day to do it?
Seriously, if you’re going to rest a lefty hitter, might as well do it against a lefty pitcher, right?
First, I'd be shocked if the Royals are set on using a L/R platoon.
Second, doesn’t Gordon still have enough upside that he should get as many AB’s as possible this year and next?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
I Don't Think
Many here think otherwise. The question is, how does the Royals’ brain trust think. I mean, they moved Gordon off 3B for Bert and the possibility that Mous can stick there. Not what I would have done from my perspective.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Aug 9, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Gordon
may actually be on his way to leading the team in HRs this year, despite playing less than half the games. It really could happen – he will need to best Guillen’s 16, and I suppose he might need to worry about Butler, should Billy get a hot streak going and surpass his current projected total. Gordon has already hit 4 HRs in only 15 games since being recalled. Not impossible for him to continue at that pace – which would leave him with a projection of about 14 more this year and 19 for the season.
He does anything close to that, there’s NO WAY he’s being traded. (and most likely no way he’s being platooned either)
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
Will, one thing I'd like to see discussed:
Frank & Ryan going on and on in the post game about how it’s basically a new team, and they are struggling to score runs, etc.
Today’s lineup had exactly ONE guy in the lineup who wasn’t here before the July trading flurry – Blanco. Hell, there was another guy who PH who wasn’t here before the July transactions, and he accounted for half the GD run prodcution SINGLE HANDED.
So, NO, Frank & Ryan, you morons – the team isn’t struggling to score because of the changes – it is struggling to score because it is still CHOCK FULL of one dimensional, free-swinging singles machines.
End Rant.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
by loyal2sdad on Aug 9, 2010 1:51 AM EDT reply actions 9 recs
+1
That was a solid rant. Frank and Ryan have become clowns. It’s sad. I used to love Lefebvre.
Are they just being told what to say? Am I incredibly naive to believe it could be otherwise?
I did notice
that before pods was traded they loved his defense in left, then the other day they sad he was so-so in left, he made some good plays but was actually just adequate. I was surprised they actually said it – makes me think that the environment around there is ’don’t be completely honest sportscasters, instead say what the organization wants you to say.’ I guess I shouldn’t be surprises thats pretty much how it works.
by wt on Aug 9, 2010 12:09 PM EDT up reply actions
With you on all this, Will (again)
It hardly even feels like I’m taking a side at this point. The Kendall, Getz, Bloomquist, Yuni love seems like something we should all be able to admit is strange and counterproductive. I mean, thats a reasonable place to start, right? For me the rest of it is like a trail of bread crumbs leading to a toilet.
One thing is for sure: when these prospects arrive, they will be surrounded by the oldest, worst players money can buy. It’s mentoring time, baby!
Anybody feeling another Bloomquist deal for 2 years?
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Not Without A
Bidding war.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Aug 9, 2010 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions
Cross-applying
Oh, and you can cross apply all of this to Kila as well.
I tried to cross apply your analysis, but the link seems weak and it wasn’t impacted well, so the disad got dropped. I may have to run (the) K on that.
by wentToARoyalsGameBeforeRR on Aug 9, 2010 9:24 AM EDT reply actions
This loss is on Yost
Willie Bloomquist should NEVER play in the outfield. He judges balls worse than Ankiel and has a worse arm than maybe anyone on the team. No way should both Gordon and Kila sit in any game, left hand pitcher be damned.
by Olentangy on Aug 9, 2010 11:10 AM EDT reply actions 1 recs
the lineup was set for the team to lose
two of our three run-producing bats were on the bench. I can’t decide whether to be frightened by the thought of Gordon being traded this offseason after producing or to be certain of it, knowing Dayton Moore’s past moves. God I hope this little experiment this second half actually works a little, to the point that DM’s hands are tied with regards to Gordon and Kila.
Todd Haley's kids know more swear words than I do.
by kcisbetterthanstlateverything on Aug 9, 2010 12:35 PM EDT reply actions
I'm baffled
Wasn’t it completely expected that we’d lose a bunch of games after unloading so much dead weight and bringing on so many of the younguns? I mean, I thought it was a foregone conclusion. I still hear a lot of shock when we lose. The way I see it, the hydra is badly wounded, what with Hillman and the others gone. Hack away Kendall and Yuni and it really is a whole new squad with at least the potential to be good. I’ve resigned myself to caring more about performances of our key guys rather than the outcome of the game. At least that’s what I’m telling myself.
Place witty signature here.
That's mind boggling
Kendall’s numbers are terrible. The fan base is loudly decries his presence. If the front office is serious about this rebuilding effort – and at least in recent weeks it seems they are – it would seem like a serious setback to wheel him out there day after day again next year. It’s a gamble with Jason Veritiek. With JK, it seems more like a criminal offense.
Place witty signature here.
I have to give you credit, Will.
You gave a useful, round number in “.700 OPS” when, to drive your point home more, you could’ve said “.697 OPS”. You executed a sort of ‘reverse exaggeration,’ i.e. it would’ve given, paradoxically, a false impression to be more accurate…I dunno…maybe that doesn’t make sense.
Bloomers Is Remarkably
Consistent, so there’s that.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Aug 9, 2010 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions
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