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Comparing Starts for Royal Starters


I was reading over at "The Book Blog" and saw a great graph created by Lookout Landing's Graham comparing the Game Scores of Felix Hernandez and CC Sabathia.  I love the concept so I figured I would use it to compare the Game Scores of the Royals so far this season.

Game Score was "devised by Bill James to determine the strength of a pitcher in any particular baseball game".  It is not a perfect method for measuring a pitching (some people are looking at improving on it), but is decent for comparing the strength of starts.  Here is how the Royals starters compare this season:

Royalsgs_medium

Some notes:

  • Our starters besides Zack were really, really bad.  In other news, during the day the sky is blue.
  • It seemed that Chen pitched much better than Bannister over the season, but both had similar results.  Bannister did have a few complete duds.
  • Zack pitched 17 better games games than Sullivan's best game.

One issue with the graph is that not all the pitchers had the same number of chances for good and bad games, so here are the average values for each pitcher

Pitcher Average Game Score
Z.Greinke 54.1
L.Hochevar 48.2
B.Chen 47.0
K.Davies 46.4
B.Bullington 42.0
B.Bannister 41.4
G.Meche 39.8
A.Lerew 38.7
S.O'Sullivan 36.9

Those values seem to make a little more sense with Hochevar, Chen Davies lumped together and Bannister and Bullington together.  I am not sure how next year's starting staff will shake out, but I would only consider seeing Greinke, Hochevar, Chen and Davies come back fighting for spots in the rotation.  The rest should be added to the pen, sent to the minors or released.

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At least Bullington can say

That he had the best Royals start of the year. That was a great game against the Yankees (I’m assuming that’s the one because, well, there aren’t really many other options).

I never would’ve guessed that Davies is the second-most consistent starter behind Greinke. I guess it makes sense, but it’s not what I would’ve expected off the top of my head.

This also confirms what we all suspected – Bruce Chen and Brian Bannister are the night and day versions of one person.

"Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."

by MinnesotaRoyal on Sep 14, 2010 7:17 AM EDT reply actions  

I wonder how these compare to the other rotations in the division and AL.
I never would’ve guessed that Davies is the second-most consistent starter behind Greinke.

Might help put a guy like Davies into perspective. I can’t stand watching him pitch but maybe he’s not as bad as it seems?

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Sep 14, 2010 8:22 AM EDT up reply actions  

I will run Davies against Twin starters laters

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Sep 14, 2010 8:27 AM EDT up reply actions  

Here is Davies compared to the Twins:

F.Liriano 57.6
C.Pavano 55.2
S.Baker 49.7
K.Slowey 49.5
K.Davies 46.4

He doesn’t have any great games like the Min. staff, but seems to throw quite a bit of 50 point games.

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Sep 14, 2010 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

His slope is definitely one of the best

It seems to suggest that, while he won’t give you several spectacular outings, he’ll be a solid contributor and you know what you’ll get from him. Sounds like the 4 or 5 starter that would be a good pick for a lot of teams. I’d keep him around until we know what we have in the young bucks.

"Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."

by MinnesotaRoyal on Sep 14, 2010 9:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don't know if I agree with this.

Without going back through the game score formula, I’m wondering if you don’t want a few of those very good outings. You know he’s going to get blown up a few times and you know that when he’s himself, it’s still a struggle. A #4 or #5 can make some money if they can sneak in a great game every 4th or 5th start.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Sep 14, 2010 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions  

Very true

On another team he would probably be at least somewhat more valuable as a 5 than he is here.

"Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."

by MinnesotaRoyal on Sep 14, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions  

I don’t know how to read that graph

Also, need a deviation stat besides average stat.
I mean if a pitcher has 10 ERA over 10 game but 9 of them 0 ERA and 1 game 100 ERA, he is obviously better than the pitcher with 10 games each with 10 ERA?

by Yamfun Cheng Kamfun on Sep 14, 2010 9:13 AM EDT reply actions  

Each starter's games are ranked in order of game score

And then those are plotted in that order.

"Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."

by MinnesotaRoyal on Sep 14, 2010 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions  

MinRoy is right about the graph - it is the pitchers Game Scores ranked first to last. Sorry for the confusion

Deviation would probably be helpful for some people, but the difference is viewable in the graph. Luke H had a few better games, but then dropped off.

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Sep 14, 2010 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions  

In my mind, I thought SOS had been doing a lot better

I guess the only advantage he has against everyone else is age

I’m also surprised at Davies. He probably does deserve a shot next year til prospects are called up

by Boots 58 on Sep 14, 2010 10:11 AM EDT reply actions  

Ok I think I realize why the graph is strange?
It is a graph to “show the stat of different pitchers at the same time”, but not a graph of “Comparable stat between different pitchers” because the bases are not adjusted and are different for everyone.

by Yamfun Cheng Kamfun on Sep 14, 2010 10:57 AM EDT reply actions  

Well, the base is a game score of 0

Unless a pitcher pitches below a zero. They’re all on the same scale and using the same stat. Is that what you’re asking?

"Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."

by MinnesotaRoyal on Sep 14, 2010 11:05 AM EDT up reply actions  

um, I mean the number of games

If adjusted, Zack and Davies’ line is much closer more sloppy, closer to the rest of the guys.

by Yamfun Cheng Kamfun on Sep 14, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions  

Yes, but the reason the game numbers are different

is because some of the guys weren’t pitching well, thus making their counts lower. If you were to have them pitch several more games to match the Greinke and Davies totals, for all we know their games might be, on average, much lower than those of Zack and Kyle. For instance, you can drag Lerew’s out and it’ll look the same, but he got hammered toward the end of his starting appearances in KC this season, so the actual game data would be different than just normalizing all the data to be the same game length. I get what you’re saying, but it’s part of falling into the small sample size issue.

"Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."

by MinnesotaRoyal on Sep 14, 2010 11:16 AM EDT up reply actions  

but it falsely made Kyle Davies seems good with a large margin by directly assuming everyone who didn’t pitch 29 games has gamescores of 0 for all the rest of the games

by Yamfun Cheng Kamfun on Sep 14, 2010 11:33 AM EDT reply actions  

Okay

Kyle’s best game is roughly equivalent to Banny’s and Hoch’s best games. Meche, Lerew, and O’Sullivan had worse best games. Hoch and Banny both had worse worst games. So, Kyle pitched better over a longer period of time. I’m not saying he is necessarily better or even has pitched that much better. I’m just saying that you can’t compare different game counts by normalizing the number of games because of the difference in sample sizes. Were Kyle to pitch 40 more games and Hoch to pitch 55 more, then maybe the order of things would change. But, based on this, Kyle has been reasonably consistent given what we normally think about him.

"Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."

by MinnesotaRoyal on Sep 14, 2010 11:48 AM EDT up reply actions  

I disagree.
So, Kyle pitched better over a longer period of time.

Kyle simply has a larger sample size. You will find scores that match up with Davies for each of Hoch’s starts except the absolute bomb at the bottom (which isn’t actually that far from Davies’ worst outing). I think the average suggests that Hoch pitched at about the same level as Davies (actually better), only Davies did it over a longer stretch of time. So, Kyle pitched about the same over a longer period of time/larger sample size. To be sure, the Royals have gotten more value out of Kyle this year because Luke has been out for a significant time, but the chart does not actually show that Davies has been a better pitcher. I will admit that he has been far more consistent than I thought, judging by the flatness of his line, but gamescore is a combination of several factors, which may actually hide his inconsistency (fluctuations in Ks/BBs/IP/etc.)

by BrRoyal on Sep 14, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

Okay, yes, poor choice of wording.

More valuable over a longer period of time is a much better way of writing it. Thanks for clearing that up.

"Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."

by MinnesotaRoyal on Sep 14, 2010 1:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

OT: Brayan Pena either won the AL Player of the Week award...

or the KC Star is playing some sort of sick joke on the Royals.

http://www.kansascity.com/2010/09/13/2220571/royals-catcher-bryan-pena-named.html

Dear Alex Gordon:

I still think you will be awesome, but for the love of God, please stop getting hurt.

Sincerely,

RF

by RoyalFlush on Sep 14, 2010 11:44 AM EDT reply actions  

I was sure that picture was of him

tagging out Getz or someone at home. Really confused me at first.

"Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."

by MinnesotaRoyal on Sep 14, 2010 11:49 AM EDT up reply actions  

I hope Jason Kendall

Got an award for mentoring Brayan to that success.

by kcbottom9th on Sep 14, 2010 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Nice write up, Jeff
I would only consider seeing Greinke, Hochevar, Chen and Davies come back fighting for spots in the rotation. The rest should be added to the pen, sent to the minors or released.

Bingo. Greinke is the one given (provided he is not traded — a discussion best saved for the offseason).

Hochevar pitched reasonably well when healthy — his bad luck with stranding runners led to an ERA (4.81) much higher than his FIP (3.96), xFIP (4.32), and tERA (4.53). One positive sign — sample size warning — was Hochevar’s performance against left-handed hitters. Lefties had always pounded him in the past, but he has held his own this year (thanks in part to better results with his change up). With a K/BB rate near 2.0 and an above average groundball rate, the outline of a league average starter is there.

Davies and Chen probably profile better in the bullpen, but with the lack of major league ready alternatives, they remain rotation candidates by default. The one complicating matter is that Davies is in his last year of arbitration, so he is due for a decent raise. If he starts to look cost prohibitive once contract negotiations start, he becomes a trade or non-tender candidate.

O’Sullivan is basically Bannister without the modest swinging strike rate, but given that he makes the minimum and was a trade acquisition, I suspect he gets every opportunity to continue starting.

I guess Meche goes to the bullpen until his shoulder finally detaches. Bannister will be non-tendered and will fulfill his destiny as a backend National League starter. Bullington might have some use as a middle reliever if he can avoid lefties, but I am not sure if he is worth a 40-man roster spot. God speed Anthony Lerew.

by Gopherballs on Sep 14, 2010 1:41 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Are those NEGATIVE numbers I see by

Hochevar and Bannister?!

and wow our pitching staff sucks.

I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals

by 306008 on Sep 14, 2010 2:55 PM EDT reply actions  

Correct - you are not seeing things

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Sep 14, 2010 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions  

Just out of curiosity

Which starts were those?

"Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic."

by MinnesotaRoyal on Sep 14, 2010 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions  

NP

Luke 4/28 vs Tampa
Bannister was 6/12 vs Cincinnati

Here is a link to the B-Ref page with the game scores. The number is in last column:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/tgl.cgi?team=KCR&t=p&year=2010

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Sep 14, 2010 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions  

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