Royals Review Prospect Pulse: September

by nwroyal on Sep 2, 2010 10:17 AM EDT in Kansas City Royals Minor Leagues

Here it is: the final Pulse of the year. The top hitters kept hitting but some of the pitchers hit the wall in August. This month, I've got Myers, Hosmer and Moustakas as the Top 3. Those three are so tightly ranked--in a Top 50 list of prospects, I'd have them with all within 5 or 6 slots of each other. I also see Monty/Lamb/Dwyer/Duffy bunched up pretty close. Finally, I bumped Aaron Crow up a spot (this was before his 13K game last night). I understand the comparisons to Hochevar--but Hochevar never consistently showed the stuff that he flashed for a few moments in the indy league. Crow's stuff is still there and I could see him be the 2011 version of Moustakas.

There is still plenty of baseball to come--there is another week in the minor league regular season and there is the playoffs. Also, October will be the Arizona Fall League--where several of our better prospects will be playing. Also, Moose and Hoz might be playing for the US in the Pan-Am games. In November I should start cranking my offseason prospect rankings.

minorleaguesplits.com was behind on stats when I put this together. This hitters stats remain the same (avg/opb/slg) but pitchers stats are different. For August it goes K%/BB%/ERA and for YTD it goes K%/BB%/FIP ERA. Also, I've listed the players age as the last piece of info in the 'Name' column.

Rank	Name	Last Month	August Stats	YTD	Comment
1	Wil Myers--C--HighA--19	2	330/405/424	LowA 289/408/500 HighA 332/435/481	Primed for huge numbers in AA next year.
2	Eric Hosmer--1B--AA--20	1	304/339/571	HighA 350/427/538 AA 310/358/615	900 OPS in August and gets knocked down a peg--that's how competitive this system is
3	Mike Moustakas--3B--AAA--21	3	331/357/636	AA 347/413/687 AAA 297/317/569	Remember when he was struggling in AAA?
4	Mike Montgomery--LHP--AA--21	4	17%/13%/4.25	HighA 37%/4%/1.22 AA 19%/11%/3.99	Been inconsistent since return from injury--which is worrisome
5	John Lamb--LHP--AA--20	5	12%/12%/5.89	LowA 27%/11%/3.64 HighA 31%/5%/1.89 AA 13%/10%/4.81	Up and down at AA
6	Chris Dwyer--LHP--AA--22	6	NA	HighA 24%/10%/3.15 AA 28%/14%/4.12	Didn't pitch in August because of back issue
7	Dan Duffy--LHP--AA--21	9	25%/6%/3.37	25%/6%/3.05	Very impressive at AA.
8	Christian Colon--SS--HighA--21	7	306/336/407	276/316/364	Improved some in August--would like to see more walks.
9	Aaron Crow--RHP--HighA--23	10	24%/3%/5.79	AA 17%/11%/4.76 HighA 24%/3%/4.23	Good to see improved control--might even be a little underrated at this point.
10	Cheslor Cuthbert--3B--SS--17	15	NA	AZ 265/342/412 ID 233/281/433	Injury knocked him out but in a short amount made an impression.
11	Brett Eibner--CF--SS--21	11	NA	NA	Not sure if he will get an ABs in this year or not.
12	Johnny Giavotella--2B--AA--23	13	404/470/577	323/390/448	Heck of a second half.
13	Tyler Sample--RHP--LowA--21	12	17%/25%/9.50	20%/17%/5.19	Really bad month.
14	David Lough--OF--AAA--24	14	380/432/522	279/334/437	Flying a little under the radar--had a good month after being unlucky for most of the year.
15	Tim Melville--RHP--HighA--20	18	16%/7%/3.05	18%/11%/4.41	Has righted the ship and could zoom up the rankings next year.
16	Tim Collins--LHP--AAA--21	19	27%/11%/1.50	AA 46%/10%/2.55 AAA 27%/11%/2.81	Hasn't missed a beat at AAA.
17	Derrick Robinson--CF--AA--22	17	273/333/386	285/344/379	Hasn't been able to match a very good April.
18	Paulo Orlando--CF--AA--24	20	283/339/455	310/369/475	Numbers were down a bit in August due to low BB% and low BABIP.
19	Will Smith-LHP--HighA--21	21	23%/2%/3.59	AAA 17%/8%/4.68 AA 8%/9%/6.07 HighA 21%/5%/3.98	Pitching well after getting yanked around by the Angels.
20	Clint Robinson--1B--AA--25	28	410/483/780	328/406/613	Home numbers are great but road numbers are also good.
21	Crawford Simmons--LHP--SS--20	33	21%/5%/1.67	23%/6%/3.71	Another Royal lefty who is having great success.
22	Louis Coleman--RHP--AAA--24	23	29%/10%/2.04	AA 28%/7%/3.29 AAA 29%/7%/3.26	Would like to see what he could do in a KC Sept. audition
23	Buddy Baumann--RHP--HighA--22	29	22%/6%/1.57	28%/9%/2.66	Just keeps on performing
24	Salvador Perez--C--HighA--20	26	390/412/623	283/311/406	Strong finish for a good defensive 20 year old catcher
25	Jordan Parraz--OF--AAA--25	16	188/280/259	251/332/384	Not sure if he has much of a space
26	Patrick Keating--RHP--AA--23	24	43%/9%/4.15	HighA 35%/9%/2.64 AA 33%/11%/2.86	Struggled somewhat this month
27	Manny Pina--C--AA--23	25	268/308/378	AA 257/317/403 AAA 218/267/364	Good D with a bat that won't kill you
28	Jason Adams--RHP--N/A--19	27	NA	NA	Will have to wait til 2011 to see what he can do
29	Noel Arguelles--LHP--DL--20	22	NA	NA	Nothing to see here
30	Kevin Chapman--LHP--HighA--22	32	19%/7%/5.00	22%/10%/3.78
31	Lucas May--C--AAA--25	34	267/370/494	287/361/507	I'm still a little skeptical but its good that he has hit away from Albuquerque
32	Michael Antonio--SS--SS--19	30	266/289/394	264/297/429	Bat slumped toward the end of the year.
33	Blaine Hardy--LHP--AAA--23	34*	12%/7%/4.83	AA 17%/8%/3.04 AAA 17%/7%/4.92	Has been used as starter not sure what the plan is
34	Elisaul Pimentel--RHP--LowA--22	31	15%/14%/6.00	24%/10%/3.87	Hasn't pitched well since coming to KC organization
35	Jarrod Dyson--CF--AAA--25	45	275/327/366	AAA 282/328/368	Defense supposed to be great but will never be an asset with the bat
36	Robinson Yambati--RHP--SS--19	41	17%/3%/2.20	22%/4%/3.16	Kid with great control
37	Rey Navarro--SS/2B--HighA--20	38	232/252/384	236/272/328	The numbers are horrible but I still think there is something there.
38	Yordano Ventura--RHP--SS--19	NR\|	26%/7%/2.16	25%/8%/3.94	Supposed to have electric stuff
39	Jeff Bianchi--SS--DL--23	42	NA	NA	Hopefully will see him back in 2011
40	Brandon Sisk--LHP--AA--25	37	17%/14%/4.91	21%/10%/4.05	Control hasn't been very good of late.
41	Edgar Osuna--LHP--AA--23	35	11%/11%/10.4	AAA 11%/11%/10.4 AA 17%/3%/3.77	Really struggled down the stretch
42	Tim Smith--OF--AA--24	36	313/329/500	303/365/456	Continues to be pretty good but not great with bat
43	Jorge Bonifacio--CF--SS--17	46	211/267/342	211/267/342	Another talented teenager in our low minor leagues
44	Ed Lucas--SS--AAA--29	47	282/393/453	312/395/497	Is he this good? Probably not but he looks useful.
45	Kelvim Herrera--RHP--DL--20	39	NA	23%/9%/3.72	Haven't heard a thing about him--here's to health in 2011.
46	Greg Billo--RHP--SS--20	NR	27%/8%/5.00	25%/6%/4.31	Numbers look pretty good--especially in Pioneer league.
47	Yowil Espinal--2B--SS--19	50	208/322/250	280/349/352	Where has the power gone?
48	Keaton Hayenga--RHP--LowA--22	49	12%/10%/4.67	9%/10%/5.78	Pitching a little bit better of late.
49	Shin Jo-Ho--C--SS--19	44	044/204/067	152/282/208	Horrible month but I the talent is still intriguing.
50	Michael Mariot--RHP--SS--21	NR	37%/6%/5.84	28%/7%/4.00	Cornhusker has had a good pro debut.

Graduated: Kila Kaaihue, Jai Miller

Dropped Off: Mario Santiago

Player of the Month: Johnny Giavotella

Johnny G., our 2nd Round pick from 2008 had a great month--hitting for average, drawing walks and hitting for power. He has really come on in the 2nd Half--the power he has shown in the past couple months is especially encouraging. For 2011 he needs to show consistency over the entire year. I've heard the defense should work at second base. By 2012, he could be our starting second baseman--where I think he could be an offensive asset and a fan favorite--as the little scrappy player who actually can hit.

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Comments

Couldn't be more hopeful this happens

Crow’s stuff is still there and I could see him be the 2011 version of Moustakas

by Boots 58 on Sep 2, 2010 10:19 AM EDT reply actions

you say that Johnny G. is scrappy

but is he gritty? does he have moxie?
enquiring minds want to know

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Sep 2, 2010 11:38 AM EDT reply actions

yes.

He has grit. He has moxie. He has more than that!

He has (wait for it…) TALENT!

I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals

by 306008 on Sep 2, 2010 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions

Talent?

Since when is that mandatory?

The significant problems we have cannot be solved at the same level of thinking with which we created them. -- Albert Einstein

by The Ol' Perfesser on Sep 2, 2010 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions

it's a perk.

never manditory.

I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals

by 306008 on Sep 2, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions

This is unreal!!!

Starting LHP Prospects are: Monty, Lamb, Duffy, Dwyer— with Simmons and W. Smith coming along.

Starting RHP Prospects are: Crow, Melville, Sample and Baumann—with Adams and Marriot coming along.

Since Dayton likes to say pitching is the currencey of baseball, I think I will start referring to him as Warren or maybe Bill Gates!!

by 102win on Sep 2, 2010 12:12 PM EDT reply actions

Baumann is a lefty

Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com

by kcscoliny on Sep 2, 2010 4:08 PM EDT up reply actions

i would just like to point out that

I have a signed baseball (in the sweet spot) by the TOP 8 RR prospects. I thought that sounded pretty cool to all those people who enjoy memorabilia. :)

I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals

by 306008 on Sep 2, 2010 12:30 PM EDT reply actions

I have Buddy at number 23 also... but I thought he was a Lefty?

23. LHP Buddy Baumann

I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals

by 306008 on Sep 2, 2010 12:31 PM EDT reply actions

Baseball Cube says he's lefty

and that’s how I remember him as well.

Also, I think it’s Jason Adam. No “s” in Adam.

Thanks, nwroyal!

by BrRoyal on Sep 2, 2010 2:02 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, he's a lefty--that's a typo

by nwroyal on Sep 2, 2010 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions

Salvador Perez

I think we all might be a little low on Salvador with the emergence of Wil. Perez is an EXCELLENT defensive catcher and he is swinging a decent stick at Wilmington. From watching him, he is our catcher of the future. He is a leader, in charge, and the guys seemed to like him.

I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals

by 306008 on Sep 2, 2010 12:42 PM EDT reply actions

He smiles a lot

by Boots 58 on Sep 2, 2010 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions

Ya you are all way too low on Perez IMO

I have him at 15

Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com

by kcscoliny on Sep 2, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions

I don't know.

I’ve always liked him, but I’m not convinced he’ll be a more valuable major leaguer than the guys ahead of him.

by BrRoyal on Sep 2, 2010 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Like who? Pina?

by Boots 58 on Sep 2, 2010 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions

Ahead on the list.

Expected value as a major leaguer is how I judge a prospect. This includes ceiling and the likelihood of reaching that ceiling or even reaching the majors at all. There are not many players on the above list ranking ahead of Salvador Perez that I expect to have less major league value.

by BrRoyal on Sep 3, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions

has anyone heard how Jeff Bianchi's recovery is coming along?

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Sep 2, 2010 12:56 PM EDT reply actions

What about this guy?

RHP Willian Avinazar

I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals

by 306008 on Sep 2, 2010 2:51 PM EDT reply actions

Full Name: Willian Alejandro Avinazar
Born: 02/27/1989
Birthplace: Valencia, Venezuela
Height: 6’ 4"
Weight: 195
Bats: R
Throws: R

2010 Season
Team League W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB SO GO/AO AVG
BUR APP 6 3 2.63 13 13 0 0 0 72.0 67 27 21 4 11 67 0.88 .246
Minors 6 3 2.63 13 13 0 0 0 72.0 67 27 21 4 11 67 0.88 .246

I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals

by 306008 on Sep 2, 2010 2:52 PM EDT reply actions

He's 21

In his second year at Rookie ball (3rd if you count the DSL).

Hard to get excited about that.

by kcbottom9th on Sep 2, 2010 2:56 PM EDT up reply actions

But he's a Latin guy.

But he’s Latin… and they usually take a couple years to get going. He could get it figured out next year and be in AAA when he’s 23. That’s fine with me.

I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals

by 306008 on Sep 2, 2010 10:32 PM EDT up reply actions

^racist!!!

There is no red like Chiefs red.

by labbadabba on Sep 3, 2010 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions

Never!

I know youre joking but we all know the barriers those guys face.

I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals

by 306008 on Sep 4, 2010 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions

How old is Aaron Crow again?

I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals

by 306008 on Sep 2, 2010 10:33 PM EDT up reply actions

great work

Buddy Baumann NOW

by Freneau on Sep 2, 2010 4:31 PM EDT reply actions

I think it's a great sign that prospect #31 actually makes it to the majors.

If the 30 guys ahead of him are considered better prospects, then the depth of this system is really nice.

by BrRoyal on Sep 2, 2010 4:44 PM EDT reply actions

like the aggressive rank of Paulo

reading good things.

R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9

by doublestix on Sep 2, 2010 5:05 PM EDT reply actions

I think Parraz is basically taking up space on the list

Which suprises me considering I thought he was good last year. AA Arkansas is some park. I’m looking at Paulo’s and Johnny G’s stats and thinking, wasn’t I just as intrigued by Parraz last year?

Also, not to be a downer—because I really am excited about the farm system—if Johnny G can’t play defense very well, which he allegedly can’t, doesn’t that basically make him another Callaspo? I guess there are worse players.

by jackie ballgame on Sep 2, 2010 5:08 PM EDT reply actions

Just not that impressed with Parraz

He strikes me as a guy who the Royals will constantly be looking to replace in the minors. Not enough power for a corner, not fast enough for CF. Has some skills but AAA is littered with guys with Parraz’s tools and experience.

With a potential 2011 Omaha OF of D. Robinson, Lough, Dyson, Orlando, T. Smith, and Miller, I think Parraz is the odd man out. If KC is looking at Myers moving to OF, that is another nail in Parraz’s career with Royals. I would expect Myers to move quickly since his bat is so advanced. Rumors of Hosmer or C. Robinson moving don’t help Parraz’s case either.

by daveyork on Sep 2, 2010 10:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Actually, looking at the list again

Robinson, Myers (if they move him out there), and Eibner are looking like the only ML-caliber outfield prospects in the system. Focus area in 011 draft? (Jackie Bradley anyone?)

by jackie ballgame on Sep 2, 2010 5:14 PM EDT reply actions

Lough and Dyson will play in the majors

Probably wont be stars. Parraz may make it. Paulo Orlando is a sleeper.

Perhaps Hoz will be moved to OF

by Boots 58 on Sep 2, 2010 5:25 PM EDT up reply actions

OF isn't a strength

and I could see our 1st pick in 2011 being an OF—but I would lean toward George Springer if wanted an OF

by nwroyal on Sep 3, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions

Nice review

Thanks. Nice review. I do think that Moustakes should be #1 though. It would be great to see Myers stick at catcher but I understand that RF is his probable major league destination.

by T.Fletch on Sep 2, 2010 5:49 PM EDT reply actions

SO much good stuff going on

last fall, it seemed like pitching was the strength of the system, and while it’s still very good, I think it’s pretty obvious that Myers, Hosmer, and Moustakas (in whatever order) are the three best prospects in the system. Myers should be in AA now, in my worthless opinion — he’s making a mockery of A+.

ONe note: Having a hard time seeing how Manny Pina’s Kendall-esque line in a hitter-friendly AAA park is going to be acceptable in the major leagues barring him being the best defensive catcherin baseball

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score.

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by Matt Klaassen on Sep 2, 2010 5:50 PM EDT reply actions

Pina in AAA

it was only 60 ABs and his BABIP was .217—so I’m not too worried. He may end up being a backup but he could be a starter in a pinch

by nwroyal on Sep 2, 2010 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions

I guess any catcher could be a starter "in a pinch"

Despite a bit of bad luck at Omaha, his batting numbers have always been pretty bad, even for a catcher. Hopefully he’ll make some progress, as he’s only 23, but right now, he can’t even hit well enough to be a useful backup in the majors.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Sep 2, 2010 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I suppose

that depends on how often a Royals backup catcher will play…

by sfeldkamp on Sep 3, 2010 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Does He Tell

Jokes?

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Sep 4, 2010 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions

as a very rough comparison

Lou Marson had better numbers at the same age at almost every level

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Sep 4, 2010 1:18 PM EDT up reply actions

Moose

Two-run homer in 1st tonight

by Toothpick on Sep 2, 2010 9:02 PM EDT reply actions

I saw it - he hit a rope out of the right field

he also had a good play in the field – knocked down a ball and had a strong, accurate throw out at first. Also a walk.

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Sep 2, 2010 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions

I hope the new

AAA park will play a bit more neutral. I don’t think all of the extreme park effects that we have in the minors are really helping development of the players, or maybe more importantly evaluation of our prospects…

by sfeldkamp on Sep 3, 2010 9:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Is/was Omaha a hitter's park?

I was under the impression that it was a bit like Kauffman, and more of a pitcher’s park.

by AxDxMx on Sep 3, 2010 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Not with Moose scewing the numbers

Its a hitters park til next June

by Boots 58 on Sep 3, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions

Kauffman is neutral overall

it does suppress home runs a fair bit, but it favorable to balls in play and encourages 2Bs and 3Bs

Omaha is a hitters park — especially for HRs, and was before Moose ever got there

NWA is even more of a hitters park

WIlmington is a death valley, suppressing everything except triples (as one might expect)

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at FanGraphs and Beyond the Box Score.

Can't get enough of me? Check out my Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Sep 3, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions

An Offense Based

On triples would be awesome.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Sep 4, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions

The League (PCL) is supposed to favor hitters.

by BrRoyal on Sep 3, 2010 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions

Are you guys out there able to watch any of the minors?

Place witty signature here.

by LaFLamme on Sep 2, 2010 10:11 PM EDT reply actions

Fabulous

Until the royals play a meaningful September game this will continue to be my favorite regular piece on this site.

So Anonymous J Scout always uses the caveat “questionable depth” when they praise the Royals system. That doesn’t seem true to me. To me there’s a nice combination of AAAA filler (guys like Lough, Parraz, Orlando, etc—guys who can fill in adequately in a pinch) and high risk high reward prospects (Sample, Melville, Cuthbert, Robinson, etc).

I guess my question is: if this isn’t good depth, what is?

by billexgordler on Sep 3, 2010 8:31 AM EDT via mobile reply actions