Twins Turned Game Around on Kila Defensive Decision

by Jeff Zimmerman on Sep 29, 2010 11:37 PM EDT in Kansas City Royals News

The Minnesota Twins found themselves behind early in tonight's game when the Royals put up two runs in the second inning. Both teams had several chances to add some runs as the Royals starter Luke Hochevar stranded 6 runners and the Twins starter Scott Baker stranded 7 through the first 5 innings.

In the sixth inning, Jason Kubel started off the inning with a strikeout, but then the Twins got rolling. They were able to load the bases with singles by Michael Cuddyer and Danny Valencia and a walk by Jason Repko. Drew Butera singled driving in the Twins first run. With the bases still loaded, Alexi Casilla decently hit a grounder to first baseman Kila Ka'aihue. Kila fielded the ball nicely, but then threw the ball off target to shortstop, Yuniesky Betancourt. Betancourt was able to make the out at second, but he was not able to get the ball back to Ka'aihue in time for the double play where Casilla beat the throw to first by a couple of steps. Valencia was able to score from third on the play and tie the game.

Going for the double play was not the correct action by Ka'aihue in that situation. With the Royals clinging to a one run lead, he needed to prevent the run from scoring. The batter, Casilla, had decent speed and the Royals had a probably around a 50-50 chance of getting both outs. The chances went close to zero when Kila messed up the throw to second base. He should have taken the safer bet and try to get the out at home thereby preventing the run from scoring.

The Royals would not see the lead again as Delmon Young homered in the 7^th inning to give the Twins the lead. The Twins added an insurance run in the ninth inning.

There is no way of telling exactly would happen differently later in the game if Kila Ka'aihue decided to get the out at home instead of going for the double play, but least at that point the Royals would still be clinging onto their one run lead. With runs coming at a premium during the previous five innings of the game so far, the Royals had to take the sure out at home instead of taking a chance of possibly turning the double play.

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Looking At The

Replay, it looked like he would have had to reverse course to set himself for the throw to the plate. He went with his momentum and tried the high risk, high reward play that seemed more natural. If his throw was accurate it might have worked. Spinning throws are inherently more likely to be inaccurate, but turning back against your momentum isn’t easy, either. Home was the right play, but I can’t crucify him for the play he made.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Sep 29, 2010 11:50 PM EDT reply actions

I wish I had the internet package to go back and look at the play closely

I think he had to think before the play where he was going with it.

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Sep 30, 2010 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions

He Was Going

Toward the line on a fairly well-hit ball. I’m not saying it was the right thing to do, but it is defensible. The bad throw renders it moot. The same thing could have happened going to home.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Sep 30, 2010 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions

The ball was hit right @ Kila...

I have the game on DVR & just watched it. It was a force out @ home & it wouldn’t have been close…

I agree the throw has to go home. Also Yuni’s throw was soft accurate but soft…

by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Sep 30, 2010 9:09 AM EDT up reply actions

I question the timing...

"Shot by my own men."

by StonewallPDS on Sep 30, 2010 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions

Kila's footwork going to second on the throw was AWFUL.

Took way to long to get rid of the ball.

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by 306008 on Sep 30, 2010 2:10 PM EDT up reply actions

gotta say that the lack of a double steal was kinda bad. If the game mattered, that’s a risk you have to take. If Aviles goes extra bases, you have a guaranteed tie game.

Hell, you have a guaranteed tie game if he gets a big hit. Instead of having the bat yanked out of his hands

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by BHWick on Sep 30, 2010 12:47 AM EDT reply actions

I agree plus...

you have your 2 fastest runners on in Blanco & Dyson. Aviles has been hot let him hit.

by PREGNANT ROLLERSKATE on Sep 30, 2010 9:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Kila would have had to spin awkwardly to go to the plate

I don’t think we can hang the loss on that one play. Hang it instead of the absolutely flaccid bats. Hard to believe this is the team that scored twenty runs in two nights.
I wouldn’t have minded the Aviles bunt if he had, in fact, bunted successfully. A pair of fleet feet at second and third will Billy coming up would have been a good situation to be in. Aviles mangled the at bat, fucking up both bunt attempts and then looking at strike three.

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by LaFLamme on Sep 30, 2010 2:00 AM EDT reply actions

Too close to call

Using Tangotiger’s run expectancy matrix:

According to Jeff’s probabilities:
Trying for the double play:
50% chance: 0 runs scored
50% chance: 1.815 runs scored
Expected runs= 1.815*0.5= 0.9075

Throwing home:
100% chance: 0.815 runs scored

Now, what is the probability of turning the double play that would make Kila indifferent?

x is the probability of turning the double play that makes Kila indifferent.
x*1.815= 0.815
x= 0.45

Thus, if Kila had a 55% chance of turning the double play:
Expected runs= 0*0.55+1.815*0.45= 0.815 (the same as if we went for the sure out at home)

If Kila had a better than 55% chance of turning the double play, he acted optimally.

The difference between 50% and 55% is within the margin of error for a play like this. It’s probably a bit hasty to blame Kila’s decision for the loss.

by potsy on Sep 30, 2010 8:55 AM EDT reply actions

Nice work

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by Jeff Zimmerman on Sep 30, 2010 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions

typo, x actually represents the probability of NOT turning the double play

by potsy on Sep 30, 2010 8:58 AM EDT reply actions

So now we have two 1Bs with the inability to make the 3-6-3 DP

Crap. Someone’s going to get signed to fix that problem in the offseason.

Unless I'm wrong...

by Top Ramen on Sep 30, 2010 10:44 AM EDT reply actions

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains."

by MinnesotaRoyal on Sep 30, 2010 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions

I really didn't need to see that beard patch again

Damn things need to be outlawed.

"Shot by my own men."

by StonewallPDS on Sep 30, 2010 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions

SOS/Meche's are much better to look at

by Boots 58 on Sep 30, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions

Well at least DM say Kila's HR

We already know he ignores defense

by Boots 58 on Sep 30, 2010 1:22 PM EDT reply actions

Kila's got 8?

And like 23 RBIs? In one month basically? What if he’d have been here for the full 7? 160 + RBI and 56 homers?

Scouting the Royals
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by 306008 on Sep 30, 2010 2:12 PM EDT up reply actions

He's started 43 games w/ 8 HRs

so in a full 162 game season, ~30 HRs.

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Of course, if you ignore his first 20 games played (including PH appearances), his line for the last 28 games is: .247/.339/.485 with 6 HRs, 18 RBI.

Over 162 games, that works out to 35 HRs 104 RBI.

Over a more realistic 150 games played, the last 28 games come out to 32 HRs 96 RBI

Unless I'm wrong...

by Top Ramen on Sep 30, 2010 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions

I think we would all take that for the league minimum.

I wonder if DM will.

by AxDxMx on Sep 30, 2010 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions

Hey Jeff,

Just a note on this headline. To me it is confusing, when I first read it, I thought maybe the Twins put a defensive shift on for a Kila AB. The Twins really had nothing to do with the decision Kila made. You’d probably be better off saying the Royals blew the game on a bad defensive play by Kila.

by AxDxMx on Sep 30, 2010 3:03 PM EDT reply actions