Royals Review Community Prospect Rankings Who's #10?
by kcscoliny on Sep 8, 2010 3:14 PM EDT
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PrintCrow surprisingly on the strength of a solid outing in Carolina League wins the #9 vote. Feel free to use the write in vote option for any Royal prospect you desire as it will help if we continue this.
#1 Wil Myers C 2009 3rd Round Pick currently at A+ Wilmington .334/.434/.544 16 HR Career Minor league stats
#2 Eric Hosmer 1b #3 Overall pick 2008 currently at AA NW Arkansas .292/.372/.469 23 HR
#3 Mike Montgomery SP Supplementary Pick #36 Overall 2008 3.06 FIP 242 IP 214 Ks 72 BBs 171 Hits allowed
#4 Mike Moustakas 3b #2 Overall pick 2007 Omaha Royal .279/.336/.492 67 HR
#5 John Lamb SP 5th Round Pick 2008 3.22 FIP 205 IP 9.35 K/9 2.63 BB/9
#6 Danny Duffy SP 3rd Round Pick 2007 3.04 FIP 311.3 IP 10.32 K/9 2.92 BB/9
#7 Chris Dwyer SP 4th Round Pick 2009 3.63 FIP 99.3 IP 10.15 K/9 4.35 BB/9
#8 Christian Colon SS 1st Round Pick 2010 .273/.319/.364 3 HR in 57 gms
#9 Aaron Crow SP 1st Round Pick 2009 163.1 IP 143 K 181 H 19 HR
Brett Eibner 2nd round pick 2010 #54 overall- This years 2nd round pick Eibner is a multi-tool centerfielder from the University of Arkansas has a great arm that has hit high 90s on the gun when he pitched and showed plenty of power at the University of Arkansas hitting 22 home runs his last season there. Eibner appears to have some struggles making contact as he struckout in 26% of his plate appearances between college and the Cape Cod League and will need to continue to refine his approach. At 6'4 210 lbs with big pop, speed and arm strength he definitely has alot of upside and that potential was enough of a reason the Royals took him in the 2nd round and gave him low first round type money. He'll start soon in Idaho Falls and should be ready to play in Wilmington next season.
Tim Collins Acquired in Rick Ankiel/ Kyle Farnsworth Trade- We've all heard the stuff about Collins 5'7 155 lbs small, diminutive, doesn't look like a prospect but that just doesn't seem to matter as he continues to overpower at every level he's been. Collins arsenal of pitches reads more like that of a starter than reliever but with his size don't expect a switch anytime soon. Collins fastball touches 94 while regularly sitting 91-92 mph his motion is deceptive and appears almost like a short lefthanded Tim Lincecum. After the fastball Collins features a plus 12-6 curveball and average changeup and is also working on a cut fastball to go against righties. While I usually go against rating a reliever in the Top 10 of most prospect systems especially a system as deep as the Royals, young Collins(20) is hard to ignore and could become a quality lefty arm in KC next season.
Cheslor Cuthbert International Free Agent 2009 - Nicaragua’s top prospect probably ever Cheslor's father groomed him to be a pro baseball player from the second he was born. As a 17 year old he got off to a decent start hitting for good power and showing an advanced approach. In his first 10 games at Idaho Falls he went 14 for 44 with 10 extra base hits, not too bad for a youngster facing opponents 3 and 4 years older than him. He's got a great frame and could add to it as he continues to grow; he'll likely start next season in Burlington (IA) as an 18 year old.
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Cuthbert
Hmm, would Crow win the #9 vote with his last performance? Who knows.
eh
i voted Eibner, but i’m thinking David Lough sooner than later. love him.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
I voted Eibner
I liked the pick and I think he has a lot of talent and could turn into something special. I picked him over Cuthbert primarily because he is further along. Of the players on the list now I’d take Cuthbert over Collins, but would also take Lough, Melville, Giavotella, and D. Robinson over him. I’m really excited about him, but I have problems placing him too high when he is only a reliever.
ditto all those guys except Robinson
made progress this year, needs to make more.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
I Voted Cuthbert
But I think Collins will be an important part of the pen next year and for many years to come. Middle relief is more important than ever before in the age of pitch counts and diluted starting pitching talent. Five inning starts from the bottom af the rotation are becoming the norm. Guys who can hold the game in the 6th and 7th are necessary for a good team.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
I don't get all the irrational love for Collins
Reliever, new… that’s all that I see when I see you guys voting for him here.
Can he be a stud, yeah, but we’ve got better prospects in the system ahead of him…
I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals
by 306008 on Sep 8, 2010 12:38 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
No!
I want Trevor Hoffman.
I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals
I dont see why he can't be a bit of both
Or perhaps both of them combined
I see a 20 year old dominating every level and already at AAA.
Reliever or not the chance that he contributes well at the big league level is that much greater than the majority of prospects at AA or lower. He’s not a Top 5 but when you get in the 10 or more range relievers at higher levels are still valuable.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
True, he's more likely to be in the big leagues (and soon)
But I still like Cuthbert and Eibners total upside minus the risk they dont pan out more than I like the lower upside but less risk that Coleman or Collins contribute much to the Royals
probably in the 13-15 range for me
love him for all the reasons listed but have to downgrade him just a little ’cuz he is a reliever. still has a chance to be something of a fan favorite. which is pretty awesome as a setup guy.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
Collins And Coleman
Could be great middle men with good contracts for many years. Don’t sell their value short. Holding a lead or simply shutting the other team down to give you a chance to come back in the 6th and 7th will win a lot of games over a season.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Sep 8, 2010 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Its easy to say that, but even crappy relievers on the Royals now can do that a lot of the time
They do have value, and they will (hopefully) be usefull in the future at a very cheap price, but having an everyday useful batter at center field is more useful than a guy who pitches 4-5 innings a week.
This
Even absolute gas cans like Chavez routinely pitch scoreless innings (Chavez has pitched 8 scoreless in 17). And he is the last man in and first man out of the bullpen you’d think.
It’s important, it’s also not particularly difficult for a major league pitcher to get 3 outs without giving up a run.
High Quality Bullpen
Guys under team control making the minimum are important cogs in a small market success machine. I hope some of the position players that are left in the mix prove themselves valuable in MLB, but I think these two have the best chance of panning out in the near future. I still chose Cuthbert, BTW. Just saying.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Sep 8, 2010 7:17 PM EDT up reply actions
vg points
i’m just not going to change my vote based on which organization they are in. collins and coleman are both excellent relief prospects, but they’re still behind some other guys. it’s really not a slight to them either, they’re getting ranked behind some pretty talented d00ds.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
Agreed
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Sep 9, 2010 1:42 AM EDT up reply actions
I have no problem with people choosing Collins.
He’s had very impressive performances at all levels and could have a strong impact at the major league level. I just have a man crush on Cheslor. Hopefully, his success will help Moore spend even more on foreign players.
Easy
The guys numbers are sick. He would be #8 on my list.
If Collins could develop in our future closer (which it looks like he could), then the door opens to a potential Soria trade. Tell me another guy on our list that could effectlvely add additional players because of his own talent. We could most likely get a Montero type prospect in return for Soria.
You cant base your value of Collins on how it affects another player (Soria)
Its independent.
And I think you’re rushing it saying a guy never in the majors could be our closer.
Tell me another guy on our list that could effectlvely add additional players because of his own talent
I dont know exactly what you mean here, but couldn’t any of the guys listed bring in additional players in a trade?
Montero isn’t happening.
I will start with Montero
Reports were out at the deadline that the Yankees wanted Soria. Montero has been reported to have been offered by the Yankees in another trade. 2+2=4 in my book. That trade would make sense.
As for Collins value, all signs are good at the moment. Of course I realize he could flame out, but I doubt it.
My point is this….. If Moustakas comes to the Royals, nothing else really happens. Same goes for Monty, he would just take the spot of Bannister, Davies or Chen.
We can’t trade Tim Collins for Montero, but if Collins could develop into a closer he allows us to trade Soria for Montero (or the likes).
So, IF (and IF gets used alot with prospects) Collins could be a stud closer, then we kind of got Montero for free. This is why he should be higher on the ROYALS prospect list, he could be more valuable to us.
Woah, Ill start with Montero
Those were simply reports, and many people have pointed out the Yankees would be unlikely to trade a top prospect in baseball for a closer. There was never anything definitive, or many people out there saying it would be a good trade for the Yankees. Im just saying it’s speculation, and perhaps wishful thinking on the Royals part to think we could get him in return. However, to go with your proposal Ill pretend the Yankees would do the deal.
Collins will probably be useful. Not as good as Soria, but a useful reliever.
If Moustakas comes to the Royals nothing happens. Ok, except we already moved Alex Gordon to a new position to make room. Also, only one person can play 3B at a time, so clearly we won’t have Betemit or anyone else playing there. However, if Collins comes up he can provide almost as much value in the 8th inning as the 9th inning. More than one reliever can play in a game. The role of the Closer is an antiquated role, but I guess the Royals still follow it so we should accept that we only have one closer.
In no way do we get Montero for free. Having both Soria and Collins on our team would be helpful to us. Those are two assets that will likely produce value for the Royals. If we trade Soria, we lose any value he may give us, in return for whoever value the player we get in return gives us. It’s not free.
Positional needs in an organization does not make the prospects ranking any higher or lower. For example, should Hosmer be lower since we already have a 1B? Or higher because it allows us to trade Billy or Hosmer for another player? Neither, because the ranking should be based on how good the player should be at the major league level, independent of who we have on the major league roster.
In summary, I guess that you can do your rankings however you want to, I just disagree with the reasoning why you want to have Collins ranked higher because it doesn’t make sense that he is more valuable. And if he is more valuable, it’s because Montero is more valuable than Soria, which means we would be getting a bargain in the deal and would make me question why the Yankees would do the deal in the first place.
Those were simply reports
Reports by Olney, Heyman and Verducci. I’m sure it was a go if the Royals had wanted it to say it was just speculation is a bit of a think argument.
Matt lampooned it for a month and then it was pretty much confirmed by multiple sources.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
Positional Needs??
If this were true would Colon be ranked #8?? If he were a LF would he be ranked #8? Would Collins be higher on the list if we didn’t have Soria and our closer had blown 10 saves this year?
Again, Collins would allow us to trade our biggest chip- Soria. Moustakas coming up might allow us to trade Betemit or Fields, but no way do we receive anything remotely close to what we would get in a Soria deal.
If your point were correct it would basically make all trade pointless. Why trade a guy and get the same guy in return. Trades are designed to help both teams.
First, no, Colon would not be ranked that high as a left fielder,
but his offense isn’t good enough for the OF. As a shortstop, however, he projects to have above average offense with (hopefully) acceptable defense, making him an above average player at a position of premium value. Good SS are harder to come by than good OFers or good relievers. Second, Collins would not be ranked any higher if our closer sucked because for several reasons: no one expects him to come in and be a closer, no one knows if he can even get to the level of a good closer, and relievers rarely make it to the top of prospect lists due to their weak positional value. I like the guy and hope he’s lights out for the Royals in the near future, but I’m not going to vote him higher on the list because you think his presence will bring in some other prospect.
We will disagree-
Colin was voted #8 because of hope, positional need and the fact that he was our 1st round pick. He has done nothing as far as performance to deserve this ranking. I am pulling for him as much as anyone, but there is nothing in the stats that make me excited.
As far as your point about Collins, I am a bit lost. ALL prospects are unproven at the MLB level, so he is no different than Moustakas, Hosmer or Myers. His performance in the minors has been equally impressive.
Look at this way
You will look long and hard finding a 3B who has been as good as Moose this year, or a 1B as good as Hosmer in the minors. It won’t take you too long to find a handful of dominant relievers, including Collins teammate Coleman, who gets none of the hype.
I know Collins is exciting because he is insane K totals (though not in Omaha, it should be noted), but at the end of the day he is a relief pitcher and shutdown relievers are a fairly common commodity in the minor leagues.
Yes, we will disagree.
As Boots said about Colon:
Colon is not ranked #8 because of positional NEED, it’s because of what position he plays.
And, about your confusion:
As far as your point about Collins, I am a bit lost. ALL prospects are unproven…
Yes, all prospects are unproven at the major league level. However, most positional (top) prospects are expected to start when they reach the majors, not earn their way up to a higher position. Same for minor league starters, to a lesser degree. Your statements seem to say that Collins will come in and fill the closer role immediately, which is rarely the case for a prospect who is first reaching the majors. Even considering injuries, they usually spend time (even significant time) in other bullpen roles before becoming a closer. Thus, Collins doesn’t enable the team to trade Soria. The team could trade Soria at any time, but would probably replace him with someone other than Collins, at least initially. In fact, many have advocated the trade of Soria for some time—like yourself—often because they view the return for Soria would be higher than the value that the team is now getting out of him. This is probably true, but it in no way affects Collins’ prospect status.
I still disagree with most of your points
I dont understand what is stopping us from trading Soria right now. Collins coming up will not magically make us able to trade Soria. We could do so right now. Tejada or ANYONE can fill the role of ‘closer.’ They won’t be as good as Soria, but neither will Collins.
Our biggest trade chip is Greinke, but Soria is #2. The value of a prospect is not based on what trades of OTHER players that person allows. This doesn’t make sense to me.
Colon is not ranked #8 because of positional NEED, it’s because of what position he plays. A shortstop is way more valuable than a reliever. And what has Colon not proven? A lot of people have struggled in A ball, Hosmer and Moose included. He’s #8 because he’s a SS, and because he projects to be a major league ready player soon who can contribute at a decent level, and a decent SS or 2B is probably better than Collins will ever be.
You Mean Quis?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Sep 8, 2010 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions
Eibner
Plus power at CF with a plus arm and solid range. I think he’ll really take off next year once he doesn’t have to focus on pitching. Most places ranked him as a mid/late 1st rounder on talent.
Teaford! I can't believe you guys keep forgetting about this guy. All he does is win!
Really guys, if dimunutive Collins has your attention, why not vote for another guy whose only claim to fame is he led the Texas League in wins? Teaford has gotten his last eight wins without a loss. He won a bunch from the bullpen as a long reliever because his team could hit and knew they had a chance with him on the mound. And oh yeah, it could have been 15 wins easily if the bullpen had held a 7 run lead a couple weeks back. The Naturals know who their most valuable pitcher has been this year, but heck, it’s only AA right? Anybody can win down there…..
Welcome to RR
Wins aren’t everything. If so then Lerew and Bullington would be top prospects winning those games in AAA.
Intersted to see how he does in the future, and he’s a lefty so we’ll see how he progresses.
I absolutely LOVE Teaford
But he’s older, not as projectible, and a stud. He’ll have a good career. I think he could be the 5th starter on our All LHP team.
I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals
Well
First of all he is 26 years old and in AA. He seems to have had a good year. HR’s allowed dropped and his K rate went way up. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him go back to the pen
Collins didn't even get second place in the last vote!
What the heck! You people are finicky.
I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals
Are we not doing anymore of these?
I'm trying a blog. It's about the Royals of course but more of a mechanical analysis type thing about players I see. Try it and let me know what you think! Scouting the Royals
I've been busy
if you would like to continue it feel free otherwise I’ll do one next week sometime
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
I was wonder also, because once done, I would like to do it with each person doing a direct ranking with Google Apps
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Sep 16, 2010 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
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