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Royals Stabilize 2011 Starting Rotation With Jeff Francis Signing

For months now it has been apparent that the Royals were going to have to sign someone to complete the 2011 starting rotation. For next season, the only starters in place were Luke Hochevar, Vin Mazzaro, Sean O`Sullivan and Kyle Davies. With Jeff Francis on the roster, the Royals get some insurance against the inevitable injury to one of those guys, as well as the ability to delay the appearance of one of their minor league arms.

Multiple sources have reported that Francis has been signed to one year/$2 million dollar contract, along with the inevitable Dayton Moore incentives clauses. Reportedly, those incentives (which per MLB rules can only be tied to playing time or major awards) could add another $2 million dollars to Francis's salary. From a pure value standpoint, that's actually fairly significant, as it severely reduces the chances that Francis is a true bargain. Then again, if Francis is healthy enough to reach those incentives and presumably pitching well, he'll also likely be traded. So perhaps this point has just been overstated.

To be honest, Francis's numbers are better than I expected. In my mind, he's always been the prototypical underwhelming NL "Ace" pitcher with a whimpy repertoire. That's undoubtedly a product of that Red Sox-Rockies World Series, which took place at the height of the disparity between the two leagues. In any case, the most relevant numbers for Francis come from last season, given that he missed all of 2009 due to a major injury. According to Fangraphs WAR, he was worth nearly two wins above replacement in 2010 (1.9 WAR). Here are the traditional stats:

 

Year Age ERA G GS IP H R HR ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2010 29 5.00 20 19 104.1 119 61 11 93 1.361 10.3 0.9 2.0 5.8 2.91
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/14/2011.


According to Baseball-Reference's less-FIP influenced WAR, Francis was merely a one win pitcher. Each system has its merits, but I prefer the Fangraphs model when it comes to predicting future performance.

Star-divide

I'm not particularly bullish about Francis's prospects in the AL, but the fact is, he's not being brought to KC to beat the Red Sox in Game One of the 2011 World Series. He's here to kill time basically, to make the grand time-filler of the 2011 season slightly more palatable. In the past, I've found these types of signings to be extremely annoying (Scott Elarton, Joe Mays, Brett Tomko, etc) yet this time it feels different. At least, in 2011, there's presumably something worth waiting for. Strangely too, the current crop of Royals minor league pitchers are actually worth some extra seasoning. As weird as it sounds, if they were worse, I'd want to see them pitch for the 2011 more.

So welcome, Jeff Francis! May your two to five months pitching for the Royals be the highlight of your career!

Comment 71 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Fair writeup

Either he is injury prone and he doesn’t reach his incentives or he pitches 140 IP into July and he is flipped for some prospects like you mentioned.

Sounds fine to me either way, I don’t really see much negative downside to this. TRUST THE PROCESS I will Dayton!

I loathe David Glass

by RoyalJHWKR on Jan 14, 2011 3:04 PM EST reply actions  

Hochevar, Davies, Francis, Mazzaro, SOS

the whitest, least threatening, blandest rotation of all time!

by Freneau on Jan 14, 2011 3:14 PM EST up reply actions  

SOS

Needs to learn to use a mirror. His beard isn’t straight.

by kcbottom9th on Jan 14, 2011 3:37 PM EST up reply actions  

I Think His

Chin is the problem.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 14, 2011 4:38 PM EST up reply actions  

All Of Them

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 14, 2011 4:57 PM EST up reply actions  

To me

Sullivan looks like someone who’s going to be overly aggressive trying to sell you scalped tickets outside the Smashmouth concert.

www.marklaflamme.com/books

by LaFLamme on Jan 14, 2011 6:08 PM EST up reply actions  

His wife was hot

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 14, 2011 4:01 PM EST up reply actions  

In A Slutty

Sort of way.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 14, 2011 4:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Nothing wrong with that.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 14, 2011 7:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Wait, does the sarcasm font mean

that he’s not better than Sean O’Sullivan…

Well, I can see that, given that SOS is young and has plenty of time to reach his peak!

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Jan 14, 2011 5:09 PM EST up reply actions  

that begs the question

what is SOS’ peak? 275 lbs?

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Jan 14, 2011 6:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Don't sell him short

He’s got a higher ceiling than that.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Jan 14, 2011 6:19 PM EST up reply actions  

He’s got a higher wider ceiling than that.

I’d say it’s positively Wellsian.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 14, 2011 6:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Speaking of "Ace"

I really hope, in an emotional way, that Luke Hochevar is considerably better than Jeff Francis this season. It’s possible that Vin Mazzaro puts a better season together than Francis.

But at the very least, FWIW, the Royals just signed their #3 starter for $2-$4M, and potentially their staff ace for 2011. At least until the trade deadline.

by Tito42 on Jan 14, 2011 3:16 PM EST reply actions  

The most important thing to me, which you hit on,

Is at least it proves Dayton isn’t going to just throw some pitching prospects to the wolves in 2011. The team will be bad – let the veterans deal with it instead of getting our potentially future rotation’s psyche crushed.

by KyleM on Jan 14, 2011 3:25 PM EST reply actions  

And that's what an overwhelmingly positive write-up looks like on royalsreview.com

Comparing this commentary to the reviews of other moves, veterans of the site will recognize this post as gushing praise.

by kcdc1 on Jan 14, 2011 3:27 PM EST reply actions   1 recs

Dayton still has some money left to spend.

Does anyone think he will sign another starting pitcher?

Go Royals!

by BabyBlues on Jan 14, 2011 3:30 PM EST reply actions  

I would guess bullpen arm or veteran backup catcher

(although either should be available on a minor league deal). The trade for Escobar probably eliminted the need to pick up another infielder since he is going to play everyday.

by Gopherballs on Jan 14, 2011 3:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Still wouldn't be surprised

To see Kevin Millwood or Bruce Chen in a Royals uniform in 2011.

by Tito42 on Jan 14, 2011 3:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Chen, Chen, Chen, Chen

"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell

by buddyball on Jan 14, 2011 6:13 PM EST up reply actions  

There you go.

The new prophecy is in place.

The prophecy has been fulfilled.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Jan 14, 2011 3:45 PM EST up reply actions  

that is a reasonable worry

Dayton tends to move in redundant ways

by Freneau on Jan 14, 2011 3:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Especially when he has money to spend, and he does.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Jan 14, 2011 3:47 PM EST up reply actions  

Why would Milwood be SOO bad?

I wouldn’t be a huge fan of it, but what could it hurt? It’s not like the 25k or so that they are saving this year in payroll will roll into next years payroll. I wish it would, but you know that won’t happen. I would like to see them get back to 70k this year. Unless they plan on carrying a 100k salary over the next few seasons. I would rather see Chen get signed to the Dayton deal (1 year plus 1 year option) for about 1.5-2 mil per year. At least Chen is a long reliever/swingman type. Move SOS to AAA.

by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 14, 2011 4:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Not to nitpick

but 25k=25,000… not 25 million. No player in the majors makes 25k.

by dubPeacock on Jan 15, 2011 2:14 PM EST up reply actions  

NIce write up Will.

I like the addition of Francis. He’s the exact kind of filler that we should be looking for. When I started reading around the rumor sites that Pavano was being looked at for a possible 3 year deal my heart sank. This signing is a very positive move IMO.

The prophecy has been fulfilled.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Jan 14, 2011 3:31 PM EST reply actions  

I have no problem with Francis. It’s nice too see a lefty in the rotation.

I hope he stays healthy and makes a strong case for himself, because the eventual trade of him would land some more prospects.

The Kansas City Prospect Machine.

by Peterman700 on Jan 14, 2011 4:05 PM EST reply actions  

The world wants to know

How does this affect Everett Teaford?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 14, 2011 4:08 PM EST reply actions  

obv it sucks for teaford a little

who is seemingly a notch below the top tier of royals prospects and could have used a random year or two of roster filling service time more than others

by Freneau on Jan 14, 2011 4:10 PM EST up reply actions  

but with a name like Everett Teaford

he’s got a job waiting at any wall street firm or english boarding school he wants

by Freneau on Jan 14, 2011 4:11 PM EST up reply actions  

"Coach Teaford has been like a father to those boys...

But if you turn the ball over against Jonesboro, you don’t want him at your dinner table the next day!"

by Freneau on Jan 14, 2011 4:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Hmm

The Raiders next whipping boy.

by Peterman700 on Jan 14, 2011 4:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Doug Tucker posted this on Yahoo Sports

Quotes from Francis

"I’ve been feeling really good," he said. "I’ve been able to do anything I wanted to up to this point. I’m excited about it. I’ll be ready to go for spring training."

For his career, Francis is 55-50 with a 4.77 ERA in 150 appearances, all but one as a starter.

"I sort of tailed off at the end of (2010) with a bit of shoulder soreness," he said. "Numbers-wise, a lot of things have to go a pitcher’s way to achieve certain numbers goals. For me, I concentrate on what I need to do to throw strikes and get people out. I think that’s what’s going to make a pitcher successful, to concentrate on what he can control."

by Peterman700 on Jan 14, 2011 4:16 PM EST reply actions  

Rockies fan here

Francis pitched well at times last year and showed flashes of the same pitcher from 2007. His arm strength and endurance weren’t quite 100% yet, and he would get hit around in the 4th or 5th inning of his starts, but still put up some of the best peripherals of his career.

He’s my all-time favorite Rockies pitcher, and I love him dearly. He’s a smart guy, and a great clubhouse player.

Now this gives me a legitimate reason to watch Royals games, and maybe make the trek across Kansas this year to see him in person.

Who knew that Muzia’s love is like a rock tied to your feet, dragging you to the bottom of the ocean?
Still hates Tulo, but is quickly losing momentum.
Enjoys watching Galiardi and Shattenkirk fight for my next jersey purchase.
SB Nation Denver

by Muzia on Jan 14, 2011 5:04 PM EST reply actions  

Well, huh

That’s encouraging. Sorry for your loss, Muzia.

www.marklaflamme.com/books

by LaFLamme on Jan 14, 2011 6:13 PM EST up reply actions  

He must be pretty damn entertaining if you're going to drive across Kansas to watch him.

Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.

People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk

by Warden11 on Jan 14, 2011 7:15 PM EST up reply actions  

I said it earlier, the Royals have such a tiny payroll. This deal is worth it.

IF we can get 10-12 wins from Francis with a near 4 ERA, perfect.

HE would have some value in a trade, or to keep.

by Peterman700 on Jan 14, 2011 5:17 PM EST reply actions  

In fairness to David Glass

His payroll is higher than the payroll of my office.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 15, 2011 10:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Strangely optimistic write-up

I’m scared.

www.marklaflamme.com/books

by LaFLamme on Jan 14, 2011 6:09 PM EST reply actions  

What, No mutual option?!

Seriously, this is a fine signing. Short term with upside, he does not block anyone or suck money out of the payroll for several years.

It also gives us something we did not have before: A pitcher who has shown the ability to be an average or above starter.
(Picking out Hochevar’s flashes of brilliance amid seasons of suck does not count)

"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance

by KHAZAD on Jan 14, 2011 7:16 PM EST reply actions  

Francis and Francouer!

We really have the veteran leadership to teach us how to lose the World Series now!

Kansas City Royals: your 2006 and 2007 NL Central champions!

by mazoboom on Jan 15, 2011 1:25 AM EST reply actions  

A little off-topic but...

What’s the over/under on number of starts SOS makes this year before being cut/demoted?

by dubPeacock on Jan 15, 2011 2:19 PM EST reply actions  

The Mighty Chen

Just made that a pretty safe bet. SOS would be a great name for a middle reliever, anyway.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Jan 15, 2011 6:40 PM EST up reply actions  

Looks like zero

He needs more seasoning (and a shit-ton of conditioning). With Chen back, I’d say it’s very likely he’s in AAA until someone is injured/traded.

by dubPeacock on Jan 16, 2011 3:18 PM EST up reply actions  

They do have some spots in the bullpen to fill

Including long reliever. And Chen is likely to suck early and often, leading ot a demotion to the bullpen, probably will SOS moving back into the rotation. I’d be shocked if he didn’t make at least 7 starts. Probably 10+ as I don’t think they’ll be in a hurry to promote Duffy or any other legitimate prospect.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Jan 16, 2011 4:45 PM EST up reply actions  

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