Royals payroll update
by Scott McKinney on Jan 15, 2011 9:40 AM EST
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PrintI've inlcluded all of the changes from the Greinke trade, the Francoeur, Melky, and Francis signings, and the arbitration settlements to Betemit, Pena, Hochevar and Gordon. I've also revised my arbitraton estimates to Butler, Davies and Tejeda downward since Moore continues to get make really good arbitration deals. Long story short, if Moore really meant it back in November when he said that the MLB payroll would be somewhere in the low 60's, then the Royals still have a lot of money to spend...if they want to.
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | |
| Gil Meche | 12.4 | ||||
| Billy Butler | 4.4 | Arb 2 | Arb 3 | ||
| Joakim Soria | 4 | 6 CO/.75 bo | 8 CO/.75 bo | 8.75 CO/.75 bo | |
| Jason Kendall | 3.75 | ||||
| Kyle Davies | 2.7 | ||||
| Jeff Francoeur | 2.5 | 4 MO | |||
| Jeff Francis | 2 | ||||
| Luke Hochevar | 1.76 | Arb 2 | Arb 3 | Arb 4 | |
| Robinson Tejeda | 1.6 | Arb 3 | |||
| Alex Gordon | 1.4 | Arb 3 | Arb 4 | ||
| Noel Arguelles | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.38 | |
| Melky Cabrera | 1.25 | Arb 4 | |||
| Aaron Crow | 1 | 1.1 | |||
| Wilson Betemit | 1 | Arb 3 | |||
| Brayan Pena | 0.66 | Arb 2 | Arb 3 | ||
| Mike Aviles | 0.45 | Arb 1 | Arb 2 | Arb 3 | |
| Chris Getz | 0.43 | Arb 1 | Arb 2 | Arb 3 | |
| Mitch Maier | 0.42 | Arb 1 | Arb 2 | Arb 3 | |
| Vin Mazzaro | 0.42 | ||||
| Alcides Escobar | 0.42 | ||||
| Yuniesky Betancourt | 1 | ||||
| Juan Cruz | 0.5 | ||||
| TOTAL | 45.44 |
| Guaranteed MLB contract |
| Pre-arbitration |
| Arbitration |
| Free Agency |
That is $45.44 million for 18 players plus Crow, Arguelles and the remaining money due to Cruz and Betancourt. Add in league minimum for 7 more players and you get $48.35 million. I imagine Dayton Moore will spend a little on a free agent reliever or two. The big question is whether he'll throw millions at another free agent starting pitcher as an innings eater (someone like Kevin Millwood) or another reclamation project (someone like Chris Young). There's certainly enough money to do any or all of the above. While some free agent roster filler makes sense, I hope Moore saves the vast majority of the remaining money to use for a better purpose like amateur draft, Latin American free agents and future FA spending.
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It seems like they can support a $70M payroll. This won’t happen, but can’t they just save whatever surplus they have this year and then apply it toward the next 3-5 years? With the Meche contract off the books next year, the Royals will easily have the money to sign multiple impact FA’s next winter.
If there are any impact free agents.
Kind of slim pickings right now.
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2001/04/potential-free-agents-for-2012.html
1B is loaded, but I’m assuming we aren’t going to go after Pujols with Hosmer and Butler and Kila.
And I would think the best time for the Royals to really hit the FA market is after the 2012 season
Because I think 2013 is the Royals first realistic shot at contending.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 15, 2011 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe.
We’ll have a much better idea about the 2012 season prospects next winter. It’s possible that Moustakas, Hosmer and 2 or 3 pitchers (bullpen or rotation) make big splashes in 2011. If that happens, the Royals could be $25-30M in FA spending away from contention. The Royals will have a ton of cash to burn, so it’s possible. No reason to go crazy speculating now tho. We have another year of development to watch before spending decisions need to be made.
Then maybe the Royals could have an all-lefty rotation eventually
Not that I’d mind that. As long as they’re effective, I don’t care if they pitch with their feet.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 15, 2011 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
Feet, feet, feet, feet,feet
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 15, 2011 5:58 PM EST up reply actions
We could also go after....
Y U N I !
(August 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT) Jojothebeachbum: "WP FTW"
by Jojothebeachbum on Jan 15, 2011 6:58 PM EST up reply actions
Like So?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 15, 2011 7:17 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
The Royals are pretty heavily committed to players at
1B, DH, SS, and 3B, so I’d imagine we’d be looking for impact players at C, 2B, in the OF, and SP. There are certainly some names in there that would help out.
agree with you, BUT
that means we trust Glass to do the right thing at the right time, and decide to lose a bit of money for a few years to offset his years of (undeserved) profiting. (As if we don’t have enough obstacles as it is – the prospects must actually, you know, develop as hoped, and Moore must prove competent in supplementing the prospects with astute trades and FA acquisitions).
As much as I want to give Glass credit for his more enlightened approach of the last several years, there is a little voice inside me that keeps whispering he won’t go “all in” when the time is right.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
but when we signed him four years ago
it told the rest of the game that the Royals would spend money
which has obviously remained 100% true
awesome message signing!
5 years ago, did you really think we were going to just punt all 5 years?
Let’s say Zack does what Zack did, Gil doesn’t get hurt and keeps putting up 5.0 WAR seasons, and Alex Gordon becomes Evan Longoria instead of, well, Alex Gordon? Maybe then we’re not staring at starting over yet again like we are now. 5 years ago we didn’t know that we were just going to blow it up all over again.
The Royals can "break even" financially with a MLB payroll of about $70M
So, it looks like David Glass is going to pocket another huge pile of profit again in 2011, as he has almost every year he has owned the franchise.
Since money left unspent this year will not roll over to next year (at least it never has during Glass’ ownership of the team) I would like to see Moore spend a bunch on the draft and international players again. And I expect we will see that happen.
The team could also taken on another team’s “mistake” contract and see if a change in scenery might reverse the “mistake.” I am thinking specifically of a few guys here, focused on starting pitching and the outfield, two areas expected to be very weak over the next two years:
Milton Bradley
Carlos Zambrano
Chris Young
Aaron Rowand
Chone Figgins
Jason Bay
Daisuke Matsuzaka
or even Mark Teahen (yeah, I’d like him back in the outfield at this point),
All these guys are signed for two more years. If the Royals could get their teams to eat part of their salaries, they might be a very good investment. Heck, if I were the team I would take Figgins or Bay with no cash considerations.
Oh, thanks for posting this chart NY. Good work here.
www.rockchalktalk.com for pretty good KU baseball coverage
So, it looks like David Glass is going to pocket another huge pile of profit again in 2011, as he has almost every year he has owned the franchise.
Not according to Forbes. At least not last year. The Royals made a small profit and invested a very high percentage of revenues into the team. One of the highest in baseball.
Since money left unspent this year will not roll over to next year (at least it never has during Glass’ ownership of the team)
That is just speculation. The payroll has usually been in the 60’s-70’s. I would imagine that if considerably less is spent in one year, that makes it easier for DM to persuade the Glass’s to invest more the next year. Of course, that is also just speculation.
And thank you for the compliment.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 15, 2011 1:32 PM EST up reply actions
Maybe Glass has recouped his initial investment (with interest of course),
and all profit now is to be plowed back into the team somehow. That would be awesome, but very unlikely.
And, of course, no MLB owner invests all revenues back into the team and takes no profit.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 16, 2011 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
There's the rub, NY:
Glass is on record as saying he is happy to merely breakeven. So, if he is 25-50 million ahead over the last decade (not unreasonable guess), then I want to hold him to his word and would hope for 25-50m overspending at the right time to achieve his stated “break even”. Unless, of course, he is just another rich guy prone to lying to the public. Like he (sorta) did to get the stadium improvements. And like he probably did numerous times running Wal-Mart.
Or I could just be a cynic. (but more likely, I’m a realist)
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
That's fair, but...
No owner is going to say that he’s running his organization like a business or that he even cares about making profit. And yet they all apparently do, because they all take profit. Many take a hell of a lot of profit (including organizations that spend a hell of a lot of money on MLB payroll). Every owner is going to publicly say that all he cares about is building a winner. But in the end, they all also care very much about the bottom line of their business.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 16, 2011 4:11 PM EST up reply actions
Actually, I'm OK with him making a profit
after all, I’m an accountant!
My problem is with saying he just wants to break even. Heh, if that’s really not true, then simply keep your trap shut. The public (contrary to typical corporate attitudes) is not stupid!
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
and don't forget the MLB cracking down on revenue-sharing recipients
to spend more on the rosters. That may be what has lead to Glass’s “change of heart” on roster spending.
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 18, 2011 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
even Mark Teahen (yeah, I’d like him back in the outfield at this point),
Hell, I’d take him at 3B until Mous is ready, then maybe platoon with Frogger in RF.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 15, 2011 6:04 PM EST up reply actions
Who are the projected FA's when the Royals will have money to burn?
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Here's some of the notable bats
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/potential-free-agent-bats-for-2012-13-offseason.html
Dayton better start saving now for the Hamilton bidding war (assuming the Rangers don’t lock him up first). I wouldn’t mind Sizemore or Ethier, either. Plus, it never hurts to have a Molina on your team (Yadier will probably be a FA after 2012.)
by Sweep_the_Leg on Jan 15, 2011 2:41 PM EST up reply actions
ICHIRO!
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
by averagegatsby on Jan 15, 2011 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
sizemore may come relatively cheapish
with all the health problems he’s had
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 15, 2011 9:12 PM EST up reply actions
And Polls!
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 16, 2011 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
How can Arguelles not hit pre-arb until 2015?
I would have thought 2013.
He'll be pre-arb until he's racked up three years of MLB service time (or two if he makes super-two status)
So his pre-arb years are speculative, based on when (or if) he makes it to the majors. For instance, if he made it to the majors this year, his pre-arb years would be 2011-13 and then his first abitration year in 2014. I don’t really know when or if he’ll make it to the majors. So I just put down his MLB contract numbers and made the first year after that pre-arb. We’ll see what happens.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 15, 2011 1:34 PM EST up reply actions
Hmm, yeah I think that’s right. Although there are circumstances where a player gets a 4th option year. Not sure. I’m no authority on option rules. But the point of the above is the salary and payroll numbers. And even if he’s in the majors and in “pre-arbitration” status, that has no relevance to his particular salary through 2014 because of his guaranteed major league salary. After 2014, he’ll be either pre-arbitration (where the team can pay him the minimum) or arbitration, if he’s racked up enough service time.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 15, 2011 1:39 PM EST up reply actions
"Noel Arguelles" is Spanish
for “Sidd Finch.”
by Black and Gold on Jan 15, 2011 5:25 PM EST up reply actions
Even more important if that real person could actually
pitch
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 18, 2011 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah, Arguelles would likely be eligible for a fourth option
Teams get the fourth option when the player uses up three options before he has five years of professional service time (and a year for this purpose only counts if he spends at least 90 days in full season ball). Prospects who sign major league deals like Arguelles are usually the ones who qualify for fourth options because the team has to start using options during his first year with the team. Guys who spent a lot of time on the disabled list or in rookie or complex leagues (think international free agents who signed at age 16 or 17) are the other types who regularly get fourth options.
There is really no free agent left that would make sense for the Royals.
I wouldn’t mind a trade for Joe Blanton if GMDM didn’t have to give up much.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
It was a 2-year contract with a club option for 2011 or $500K buyout. Thankfully the Royals are only on the hook for the buyout.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 15, 2011 4:16 PM EST up reply actions
on the job training
I think Dayton Moore would admit after his tenure ends with the Royals as GM, that early on he made some poor MLB choices with trades and free agency. His skills in working within a system and selecting prospects, and then surrounding those prospects with the right development people. has been impressive.
I think one could argue, on paper, that Moore has improved at handling the 25 man roster, and the Royals should see improvement across the board in 2011.
There are few positions blocked by a Willie Bloomquist, Jose Guillen or Rick Ankiel. The Royals have paved the way for the young players to sink or swim, and I am very excited to see this team shape up in Spring Training.
I really think GMDM has made wise choices this off-season, and I can’t wait to see our youngish, make shift rotation. Can Aaron Crow win a spot?
A little birdie told me Aaron has already been told he’s destined for the bullpen.
Maybe incorrect.
by WURoyal on Jan 15, 2011 7:17 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
America is an amazing country when Juan Cruz can be paid
$500,000 for not doing anything.
I hope KC holds their money and THEN spends it when they will get value for it. Sinking into the Latin American market or paying overdraft slot is good for KC. I’d rather see the Royals overpay some kid in the DR or Venezuela for $300K or $500K instead of spending it on some washed FA who can provide veteran presence or winning background or grit.
Let the kids play and see what they can do.
Another strategy that might work for the Royals is wait until midsummer and become a buyer with an eye on 2011 and beyond. There might be teams will to deal some big league talent that might fit a few holes in KC’s roster if the money was available.
In practice
buyouts really just work as deferred payments. Instead of paying Cruz $3 million a year for two years, the Royals were able to spread that money over three years by adding the buyout option.
Good write up
For budget planning, the Royals also need to allow another $2 million or so for players on the disabled list (who continue to get paid and the team must pay their replacements on the active roster) or who get released (as the team may owe them salary for the full season) or who have contract incentives. That bumps up the expected committed payroll to about $50 million.
So the rotation is gonna look like this?
Hochevar
Francis
Chen
Davies
Mazzaro
I have no idea who the ace is and who the #5 is.
I think the only certainty is that Davies is not the ace
Stuck following the Royals since 1976.
That's My Guess
From the Chen thread, ordered Hooch, Hiram, Frankie, Vin and Chen.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 15, 2011 7:19 PM EST up reply actions
Davies
had career highs in several categories last season, albeit still below average. Davies has improved, and with better defense, maybe some more?
I think Francis needs to earn #2
by Peterman700 on Jan 16, 2011 12:16 AM EST up reply actions
Wow....that looks bleak.
I just hope if shit hits the fan they can resist the urge to rush some o’ the youngsters. Needs to be a nickname for the minor league system as a collective….how about “sizzle”.
by Nighthawk at the Diner on Jan 15, 2011 7:25 PM EST reply actions
I think we paid 2 million for Yunie?
You have it listed as one million. Are we going to pay one million next year as well?
Go Royals!
The Royals pay the Brewers $2M for Yuni. And the Mariners pay the Royals $1M for Yuni. The net outlay for the Royals is $1M for Yuni.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 15, 2011 9:59 PM EST up reply actions
The Royals are paying the $2 million buyout for next year
I believe the Brewers assumed the Royals’ $3 million obligation to Yuni for this year (the Seattle money takes care of the other $1 million), so the net effect is that the Royals owe Yuni $2 million (but I am not sure if they will take that debt this year, next year, or half and half).
Question: Whose rotatation is better in 2011: Kansas City, Omaha, or NW Ark?
Stuck following the Royals since 1976.
hmm
is it unrealistic to think that
Davies, Hochevar and Mazarro will all have 4 ISH ERA’s?
by Peterman700 on Jan 16, 2011 12:17 AM EST up reply actions
+1 does not exist for
inning eating starting pitchers.
Go Royals!
Payroll update
$47.44 million. Add in league minimum for 6 more players and you get $49.93 million.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 15, 2011 10:14 PM EST reply actions
Actually 49.87 million.
You forgot Adcock, Rowdy Hardy and Starling De La Rosa that takes off 50k
Go Royals!
So it's not inconceivable that we could sign Sizemore, Carpenter and/or Oswalt next year?
We should have, what, 35 million to play with?
batter nine you sucky
If each of their options are declined
The Royals could have them all! Ok, not really, but there will be a lot of money to spend. That excites and scares me in equal measure.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 16, 2011 12:34 PM EST up reply actions
The problem with spending vast amounts of money is that we likely won’t have a good idea who of our prospects will bust at the ML level any more next year than we do this year. Signing a FA at any particular position except pitching wouldn’t make much sense to me.
The players I see us learning more about are some bullpen guys, Escobar, Kila, Gordon, Cain (possibly), Dyson (possibly), Mazzaro, SOS, Teaford (possibly) and Duffy (possibly). Lough is also a potential guy, though I expect to see him in Omaha. Our catching situation is confusing with May, Pena, and Pina all likely to get a look until Kendall returns. We’ll have some idea about Moose, as well as Aviles’ ability to handle 3B.
We will still need to keep the roster clear for spots for guys like Hosmer, Myers (assuming he switches to OF), Colon, Monty, Lamb, Dwyer, Crow (wherever he fits), Odorizzi, Giovatella, Eibner, etc.
Spending big on a FA position player just doesn’t make much sense until the Royals have some reliable, decent ML-talent among those position player prospects. I dont forsee us getting any great value in a known commodity FA. Given that reality, I’d prefer to see us extend Butler as opposed to signing a player for market when we might have a substantially below market in-house option.
1B/DH (opposite of whatever Butler plays): Kila, Hosmer, Clint Robinson
2B: Aviles, Gia, Colon, Bianchi
SS: Escobar, Colon, Bianchi
3B: Moose, Aviles
C: May, Pena, Pina, Myers. Perez
OF: Cain, Myers, Hosmer, Dyson, D Rob, Blanco, Gordon, Lough, Tim Smith, Maier
You forgot Melky and Frenchy and Orlando.
Also, Maier will not be on the team this year and will not be playing for us next year.
Go Royals!
Probably update
Not sure if Meche came to a buyout agreement with the Royals or if he gets the portion of his signing bonus that was due this year, but I’m going to include the $400K portion of his signing bonus and subtract the rest of his salary ($12M). That puts the new projected total at $35.89M with seven more players at league minimum for a total of $38.8M
The immoderate moderator
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