Royals Top Prospects: The Overview

If I were to lay out my blueprints for a great farm system, I would want some top notch bats at the top.  Players who can get on base and have power.  I would want to make sure their strikeouts aren't a big problem in the minors--as that can spell trouble at the big league level.  Those top level hitting prospects are about the most valuable thing you can have in a farm system.  For pitching, I would want depth--lots of it.  The average return on pitching prospects has been about the same between pitchers ranked in the Top 10 and others ranked 11-50.  I would want pitchers with good control and starters who know how to use a change-up.  Of course, I would want some young international guys--both pitchers and position players with incredible tools/velocity.  There would also be some bounce back candidates who are looking to improve after some disappointing years.  The Royals have all those things.

2010 was a good year for the Royals Farm System.  The Royals had some good luck/health and some players break out.  It was also a bounce back from a bad 2009.  A year ago, the Royals had a lot of talent on the farm, it just hadn't produced up to expectations.

The Royals farm system has received some attention this off-season.  It has become cliche to talk about all the prospects the Royals have.  Of course, being attention-starved and beaten down Royals fans, we have struggled with how to handle this news.  Some of us are excited at this twinkle of light on the horizon.  Others are still cynical after the list of failures in the distant and recent past.  I can't tell you who is right.  I did a little series earlier in the off-season about what we can (and can't) expect from a top farm system--but that still leaves a broad range of possibilities in the future.  To the cynics, I would say that, with all the praise heaped on the Royals prospects, not one bit of it is undeserved.  You can look at the Royals prospects a lot of different ways: the Top 3, Top 5, Top 10, Top 30.  (Fangraphs did an interesting take here, but I find it problematic for a few reasons).  I have never seen a farm system with this combination of impact and depth.  To the excited, I would say that we are guaranteed nothing in the future.  I can tell you we have a historically good farm system.  I can't tell you what it will translate to.  I feel reasonably certain that we will, in coming years, see more exciting baseball--with over .500 records--but that is still a long way off from division titles.  There is also the danger that some of these prospects might succeed--after they are traded away.

Here is the straight up prospect list.  It ended up being 65 names--after trades.  I added Greg Holland, who I mistakenly thought had used up his prospect eligibility.  Also, I inserted Nathan Adcock--our Rule V pick.

Below is the prospect list sorted by position.  The Royals have depth at lots of places--C, SS, pitching.  They are short in the outfield--especially corner OF, but that changes if Myers goes to RF.  They have a bunch of CF prospects but none of them are good enough that I'm comfortable penciling them into the future OF.  They also lack depth at the corner infield (although they do have quality with Hoz and Moose)

Next, I've listed the Royals prospects by age, starting with the youngest at the top.  I found this to be a really interesting exercise--you might see two players close in age and yet one is a couple levels ahead of another.  There is almost a 10 year gap from youngest to oldest.

This is my best guess as to where each player will start 2011.  I will probably be off on several of there.  The nice thing is there is so much depth that prospects have to be carefully placed to insure playing time.

Here is my overall Top 25 for prospects.  Also, I note below where I would rank other Royals prospects in a Top 100 list.

I would rank Duffy and Dwyer in the 50s, Odorizzi in the 60s, Colon in the 70s and Crow in the 90s. 

Here are the AL Central farm systems and how they stack up against each other.

I tried to use Kevin Goldstein's star rankings--but he hasn't done the White Sox/Twins--so I used BA's rankings and guessed at the stars.  5 star prospects=Top 50ish and are bold/italic.  4 star prospects=Top 100ish and are normal.  3 star=101-200ish and are bold.  2 star prospects=filler and are italicized.  The Twins have a good farm system and look to be a good team for the foreseeable future.  Cleveland has a deep farm system but not many impact players.  Chicago and Detroit are in win now mode--but have the deep pockets to stay competitive if they are smart.

A year from now what might the Royals farm system look like?  Below is some creative writing and a look into the future.

The Royals could easily have a Top 3 system next year--even if they graduate some top prospects in 2011 (like Moose, Monty and Duffy).  They should add a top prospect with their 1st Round pick of the June draft.  They also have a lot high ceiling prospects (especially pitchers) who could emerge in 2011. 

There you go.  I've sliced and diced Royals prospects just about every way I can imagine.  All we need now is for games to start and be able to see how these kids perform.  Thanks to everyone for reading the series and all the great comments.