Wil Myers officially to the OF?
I've seen a couple of folks who were at FanFest report that DM stated that Myers would be moved to a corner OF position. I think we can officially stop referring to him as a catcher.
over 1 year ago
nwroyal
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I have read at a couple of other places also.
Dave Sanford from Royal’s Corner’s take
http://royals.scout.com/a.z?s=281&p=9&c=2&cid=1041820&nid=5051312&fhn=1
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 23, 2011 10:13 AM EST reply actions
Great news I expect Myers to join Hosmer in Omaha by midseason if he takes to the OF
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
This is exciting in the sense that we should see him with the Royals sooner. But I was hoping he could stick at catcher. Obviously his bat would have provided a lot of value at catcher. But from an organizational viewpoint, we are pretty thin at OF, so I am not disappointed at all.
Also, with Butler being locked up, I wonder if Hosmer is going to move to OF as well.
Baseball isn't Fantasy Baseball
I’d much rather have Myers play 150+ games with a plus bat and run out a scrub for catcher than have a scrub in the OF and have Myers player 115 games behind the plate.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jan 23, 2011 10:57 AM EST reply actions
Yes, but that only helps the Royals if he has a long career with the Royals
And if he becomes a very good player, he very likely would not have a long career with the Royals.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 1:37 PM EST up reply actions
I do not choose to see things this way.
All of our young guys will stay long-term because they're winners and the fans are awesome
yes, but like in FB, catchers are 1000 times harder to find that OF
a scrub OF + Myers > a scrub C + Myers
Yeah but WAR and UZR aren't fantasy stats
and they can be much more indicative
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
Only if he isnt more than a bat behind the plate
If you have a defensive catcher with minimal bat… That is better than a hitting catcher with a minimal catching ability/arm for a team. They are moving him to the OF for a reason, and it isnt because we are SO GOOD at catcher. If they dont think he can be average behind the plate then I am good with that. If they are moving him so he can be with the MLB team faster then I disagree with the move.
If he is average in the OF with a great corner OF bat, then it is worth it to have him in the game 98%of the games compared to the 80% he would if he was catching. Considering the log jam at 1st we are already going to be solid at DH as well.
It does however make our CF have to have great range with a huge arm.
by Raiderhater1 on Jan 23, 2011 2:23 PM EST up reply actions
Check out the link in the first comment.
It does however make our CF have to have great range with a huge arm.
Everything I have heard says Myers has plenty of speed for a COF spot, and a rocket for an arm. I think he is expected to be at least an average COF, if not better.
I don't know if this gets Myers to KC any sooner
Isn’t it going to take him a while to actually learn how to be a decent defensive OFer? I think the move is quite possibly good for his development as a hitter, but I still think it could take a while for him to get to KC. Learning a new position isn’t necessarily quick and easy.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 11:10 AM EST reply actions
He played OF in HS too
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
by kcscoliny on Jan 23, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Billy Butler played 3B in HS
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 12:05 PM EST up reply actions
Butler is quite a bit overweight
Myers has an athletic build and should make the adjustment pretty quickly.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 23, 2011 12:07 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I thought Billy had lost some weight before last season
he seemed more “svelte” than in 2009.
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
Billy looks like he's lost a ton of weight.
If I were to guess, I’d say 20lbs or so. He also has been saying that he’s been hitting the weights alot more.
The prophecy has been fulfilled.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Jan 24, 2011 10:17 AM EST up reply actions
And the Minors
And a full season in the OF
by kcbottom9th on Jan 23, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions
Have you ever played baseball?
Moving to the outfield is not a very hard adjustment to make. Especially for an athlete that played the outfield some in HS. As long as he has some speed, he will be fine. We already know he has a cannon for an arm.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 23, 2011 12:06 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
No I really don't think we can assume that any position switch should be quick or easy
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 12:09 PM EST up reply actions
Any athlete should be able to play a passable position.
I consider “passable” as good as Butler plays it.
I am by no means as athletic as Myers is, but I made the move from 2B to CF in HS, and was given a baseball scholarship the next year. If a poor athlete like myself can make that adjustment, I have no worries about Myers making the switch.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 23, 2011 12:11 PM EST up reply actions
The difference is that Myers will need to play a passable Major League corner OF
Which is of course different from passable HS OF. Myers is going to have to perform better in RF than you had to in CF.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 12:13 PM EST up reply actions
And that is why he was given the big bucks
I said I was by no means as athletic as Myers. If he is talented enough to hit a 95 mph fastball followed by a 78 mph curveball, he should have no troubles tracking down flyballs. This is not rocket surgery or brain science. It is baseball.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 23, 2011 12:15 PM EST up reply actions
If he is talented enough to hit a 95 mph fastball followed by a 78 mph curveball, he should have no troubles tracking down flyballs.
Offensive skills do not necessarily lead to defensive skills.
This is not rocket surgery or brain science. It is baseball.
Um, right. I agree. And not every athletic catcher can quickly become a decent MLB-quality corner OFer.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 12:19 PM EST up reply actions
I would wager he's already better than Jose Guillen out there.
by AxDxMx on Jan 23, 2011 12:25 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Plus...
…a lot of ML teams seem to be willing to let great bats learn OF defense on the fly (literally). Right or no, this seems to be the case (e.g. Soriano).
"Sir,--It has been wittily remarked that there are three kinds of falsehood: the first is a 'fib,' the second is a downright lie, and the third and most aggravated is statistics." *The National Observer* (June 13, 1891): p. 93-94.
I know offensive skills don't directly translate to defensive skills, but
I was merely stating that fact that he has athleticism.
Myers was not a “Catcher” coming out of HS. He was an athlete. He played every position in HS. He was drafted as a “catcher”, b/c he had played “some” catcher in HS. It is not very hard to track down flyballs in a ballpark the size of Kauffman if you have a quick CF playing next to you. He will have Orlando in NWA, D.Robinson/Dyson in Omaha, and Cain in KC.
I don’t see how he isn’t in KC by mid 2012 at the latest.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 23, 2011 12:26 PM EST up reply actions
I don’t see how he isn’t in KC by mid 2012 at the latest
The highest level he’s played at so far is high-A. You’re basically assuming that he completely dominates AA and AAA (while not even playing full seasons at either level) and makes it to the majors at age 21. While that is possible, it is the very best case scenario. And the best case scenario is almost never the most likely scenario.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
I am taking the best case scenario
I always have, and I probably always will. What’s the point about always being pessimistic? I always see the Royals and Chiefs as having at least better seasons than the year before.
But if the bat is ready, which I think he is the most advanced hitter in the system (more patient than Hosmer, and power potiential).
by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 23, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
And I'm just trying to be realistic
I thought we were talking about what we thought would happen, not what we really wanted to happen.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 12:47 PM EST up reply actions
I think I am being realistic also.
Domination in Wilmington, a pitchers park, means something. right?
by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 23, 2011 1:05 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, it means he's an excellent prospect
And excellent prospects can end up going in one of several different directions. Some move ultra-fast through the higher levels and into the majors. Some go a little slower and have a stumble here or there. Some take a little while to make a position transition. Some hit a wall at AA or AAA. Some completely fail.
And no, you’re not trying to be realistic. As you said, you’re just assuming the best case scenario will be reality because it’s more fun to be optimistic than pessimistic.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 1:11 PM EST up reply actions
Can realistic not equal optimistic?
by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 23, 2011 1:20 PM EST up reply actions
No, it can't
Those words have meanings. And they aren’t synonyms. You can realistically expect a good outcome. But I don’t think it makes sense to expect the best case scenario. Thinking the best case scenario is the most realistic scenario means that you’re thinking with your heart and not your head.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 1:23 PM EST up reply actions
Well...
I agree with you. There are no sure bets. But, if you could point to anyone in the system as having the highest percentage to realize the best case scenario it would be Wil in my opinion. I think one of reasons they saw him as a potential catcher was because of his gun, which will translate well to RF.
by I_Bleed_Red. on Jan 24, 2011 7:35 PM EST up reply actions
I'm optimistic about his OF defense
But reads, route and range are much, much more important than arm. And that’s what we don’t know yet. It seems like Royals fans are saying, “he’s athletic and played some some OF in high school, so everything is definitely going to be just fine with his defense and the transition will happen quickly and easily.” While that is all certainly possible, it sounds like a best case scenario for his defense. And when I see fans of a team paint the best case scenario as what they think will happen, that pegs my fan-optimism-bias meter.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 24, 2011 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know, I feel like it would be a complete failure on his part
if he were to be below average out there. I think average RFer is his floor, especially since it is not a new position. Could he be Brad Hawpe out there? Sure! But I think that is the unlikely scenario.
This.
Myers has plus speed, too. I would be surprised if he doesn’t have at least average range. I’m just not worried about the transition to OF. I really wouldn’t be surprised if he’s ML ready before 2012 is in the books.
BTW, look at Werth as a comp… in 2001, he was a minor league catcher. In 2002, he’s moved to outfield, and he got his first cup of coffee that same year… with another tase in 2003. From there on out, he was a ML outfielder. The biggest differences are that Werth was older at the time and had never hit the way that Myers has so far in his pro career.
Also BTW...
We are throwing the phrase “best case scenario” around way to liberally in this thread.
According to my alternate universe survey calculations (which involve metrics so advanced that humans will actually be incapable of understanding them for several more generations), the best case scenario for Wil Myers involves a band of anonymous scouts realizing that he actually has all the tools of a gold glove shortstop. After the move to the infield (in ST, 2011), he’ll shoot through the system at an A-Rod-like pace, and sign a Longoria-like-contract after the 2013 season, which we’ll extend in 2018 to a “lifetime contract” that figuratively “locks him up” for the rest of his playing days (also, because of significant modifications in the next CBA, the deal will literally “lock him up” in a sub-basement at the K, where he will spend his spare time discovering a cure for several particularly virulent forms of cancer).
by kcemigre on Jan 25, 2011 2:34 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He'll have ample time to learn how to play the OF correctly. He is a decent athlete
who moves well enough for a corner OF. When he was originally drafted some thought his backup position could be CF. Having seen him, he doesn’t have that kind of speed but definitely enough for the corners. Definitely has the arm for the position. He has two years to learn the OF.
He gets spring this year, full season in NW Arkansas, AZ Fall league more than likely and then a full year in Omaha. That’s plenty of time for him to learn the position.
Playing in a quirky Werner Park will challenge him also.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
He might speed up the table by getting to Omaha sometime this year
but there is no reason to call him up before Sept 2012.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
If he has past all the "tests".
I know Dayton loves he “steps” or “tests” before they get promoted. But why wouldn’t he be up earlier in 2012?
by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 23, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
No real need?
Why don’t they want their best team in KC as early as possible? I would like to see a real competitive team as early as possible. If it isn’t 2012, then it has to be 2013. And you can’t win with all rookies. You have to give them sometime together to meld as a team and as professionals.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 23, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
You have to take into account that if he is a stud, the Royals will only control him through his arb years.
They’ll lose him in free agency. So delaying his controlled time here gives the Royals a larger window that is more realistic for competing for a WS title. Bringing him up just to make the Royals more competitive would be pointless. The point is to win a title.
If you're saying he should be MLB-ready by sometime in 2013
I think that is realistic.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
Learning a new position isn’t necessarily quick and easy.
Tell that to Mark Teahen!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
About half a season
if Gordon is any indication. The Gordon example is one of the things that makes me optimistic Hosmer could be tried in the outfield without delaying his timetable much if at all. If it doesn’t work he can always move back to 1B.
it took gordon who had never played OF in his life...
like 3 months to become a decent defensive OF….Myers outfield defense will be ready before his bat is.
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 23, 2011 9:29 PM EST up reply actions
I was sitting down the third base line in Round Rock
and Alex charged a ball down the line, came up throwing to almost gun a guy down scoring from second. The throw was a screamer right on point and just reiterated my frustration in the Royals not moving him to right. I know this isn’t the place necessarily, but the fact that they didn’t think he could pick up RF well enough to fully utilize a third baseman’s arm still gets me riled up.
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Jan 23, 2011 10:47 PM EST up reply actions
oh...it was unreal
that they had dejesus’ relatively weak arm in RF and gordon’s cannon in left. it was hilariously stupid
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 23, 2011 10:49 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
I am not a scout by any means, but this seemed obvious. His best tool on defense should clearly have been his arm. Way to select LF as his position of relocation.
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Jan 23, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
I Think I've
Been on this from day one of the stupid OF conversion. He’s still our best 3B, and if he needed to learn RF on the fly I’m sure he’d have done well enough to replace the studs we've been running out there.
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 24, 2011 1:01 AM EST up reply actions
What does this do to his overall value as a minor leaguer...
Does he go from the 2nd rated Catcher to the Top rated OFer?
Your 2010 Royals Review Fantasy Football Keeper League Champion
Mike Trout and Dom Brown seem to take the top spot overall
And Bryce Harper is probably up there as well.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Glad to see someone mention Harper in this conversation
Nationals moved him to OF for the exact reasons KC is moving Myers. Become a big league catcher takes time and innings played behind the plate. With a special bat like Harper and Myers, it will play up much better than such a critical defensive position as catcher.
Let’s face it: Think of all the average to below average OF that teams carry because of the bat. Guillen has been mentioned but I will always think of Manny Ramirez,, Reggie Jackson, & Ted Williams. They were hitters who stood in the OF and made routine plays. Myers will be much better than those guys. He’ll learn alot in a full year of ST and regular season. I believe fans could see Myers by end of 2012.
But Does He
Smirk or smile too much?
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 24, 2011 1:12 PM EST up reply actions
there were also concerns about harper outgrowing catcher as well
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 23, 2011 9:33 PM EST up reply actions
In terms of douchery?
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Jan 23, 2011 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
i want my team to have someone douchy like harper
guys like that entertain me immensely for some reason
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by billybeingbilly on Jan 23, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
That eyeblack thing
Would annoy me really really badly.
How can any sane person think that’s a good thing to do to your face?
by kcbottom9th on Jan 23, 2011 10:52 PM EST up reply actions
yeah...that i wasnt really a fan of...but he's done doing it now
im talking more of his crazy on the field antics…shouting at the other team, taunting everyone…stuff of that sort
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 23, 2011 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
Matt Holliday's defense is just gross.
The prophecy has been fulfilled.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Jan 24, 2011 10:38 AM EST up reply actions
i was hopin
he would be a catcher since we really don’t have anything there prospect wise. can’t wait to see him explode he’s gonna be good
I disagree with that assessment
I think we’re quite thin at catcher. Of course most organizations are.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
I wouldn't say loaded, but
I think there are quite a few options to throw out there as Defensive first catchers OR hitting catchers. May and Pena are more hitting first catchers, but Pina and Perez are stud defensive catchers/game callers.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 23, 2011 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
Yeah there are options
They just don’t look like very good options. Salvador Perez could turn into a good prospect, but he’s not there yet.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions
Salvador defensively is pretty much major league ready.
His bat needs work but the group of Lucas May, Brayan Pena and Manny Pina is decent enough organizationally speaking. Not big upsides with any of these guys but decent depth, wouldn’t hurt to add a prep or international option or two.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
How many of them project to be average MLB catchers (total value)
I think only Perez, and only if his bat progresses.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 12:53 PM EST up reply actions
Ya they are all more like backup options
but those are important too. Catcher definitely isn’t the strongest position but there are options. It’s nice that the options KC does have are at the upper levels.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
Kendall is going to hurt us there.
When Kendall is ready one of Pena or May will most likely be gone.
Go Royals!
I like Perez...
I see him as our future catcher. If his defense is as good as I’ve heard I hope he can at least progress his bat enough to be our future 8th hitter in the lineup.
by I_Bleed_Red. on Jan 24, 2011 7:43 PM EST up reply actions
Depth is relative...
…the Royals system seems to have as much “depth” at catcher as you could expect. Speaking in similarly relaitive terms, we have been really thin in the outfield, since most organizations have several upside outfielders…
Also, no mention of Shin Jin Ho in this conversation… anyone know what’s up with him? I seem to recall struggles with the bat, but he’s still a young kid, right? Where does he play in 2011?
Reality is often a buzzkill
And the reality is that catching and the OF are the weaknesses of the Royals great minor league system. Now, the catching shortage is something almost every organization has to deal with, but I’m not going to pretend like the Royals have a bunch of good catching prospects. They don’t. They have a handful of guys who project as possibly competent backup catchers in the majors.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 2:35 PM EST up reply actions
Well, so long as you admit that...
catching shortage is something almost every organization has to deal with
…I can agree with you. But, if you combine your statement that the Royals are weak at C and so is everyone else…. isn’t the net statement just that the Royals’ minor league catching depth is about average?
And, I think that would be an accurate statement. The Yanks have real depth at C (even after Montero). I don’t know what other org you could really say that about.
…. isn’t the net statement just that the Royals’ minor league catching depth is about average?
Yes. And my problem with the Royals situation with catching prospects isn’t so much depth; it’s that there isn’t one real prospect there. Just a bunch of potential MLB backups. I’d feel much better if there was one guy we could hang our proverbial hat on.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
i dont get how you define 'real prospect'
he’s not a blue chip prospect, but he is unquestionably a prospect and a good one at that.
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by billybeingbilly on Jan 23, 2011 10:47 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, Toronto has Arencibia, D’Arnaud, and that other dude (a Latino – Perez seems to ring a bell as his last name, but I don’t want to bother looking it up). Three of their top 10 prospects are Cs, and before Lawrie was added to the mix, I think their top 3 positional prospects were all Cs, but I could be wrong.
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Jan 23, 2011 10:55 PM EST up reply actions
Yankees (Satan incarnate)
are deep at catcher.
Yeah, Toronto.
So, the Jays and Yanks are deep at C. And the rest of us aren’t, really. I think the deal is sorta this: we all tend to underestimate the value of an “averagish” catcher.
Sure… Pena, Pina, May, etc. may not look like studs, but they might still turn out to be better than average MLB catchers. And Perez has a chance to be better than that. That’s actually not bad for organizational depth at C. At least it isn’t something I’m willing to worry about.
Catchers
People don’t really understand what a black hole of offensive production a league average catcher exhibits.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jan 24, 2011 9:05 PM EST up reply actions
That may be true
and while it would be nice to have a Posey or Mauer behind the plate, our near-future lineups should have enough power that a poor hitting catcher that is lights-out behind the plate can be compensated for.
(August 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT) Jojothebeachbum: "WP FTW"
by Jojothebeachbum on Jan 25, 2011 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
cough...Jason Kendall...cough...cough...
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
by buddyball on Jan 25, 2011 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I liked Myers at C, but
Any way they can get him to KC sooner is okay with me. A lineup with Myers, Hosmer, Moustakas, and Butler in 2012 would make me very happy.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 23, 2011 12:16 PM EST reply actions
2012 is an unrealistic ETA for Myers
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 12:20 PM EST up reply actions
I don't know about that
where do you think that he will start the year? Even if he goes back to Wilmington, the only way he stays there is if he doesn’t hit, so he will get to AA this year. Then next year he will probably start out in Omaha, and sometime in the summer of 2012 I suspect we will see him patrolling RF in the big leagues.
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
Before the "move" to RF,
I was hearing that he was going to split time at C, RF, DH in AA to start the year. I think he plays RF in AA, and could make the jump to AAA if he handles RF at the bat in the first half. I can see Myers REALLY breaking out at NWA. He could put up Moustakas esq numbers at home and Hosmer type numbers on the road. This kid can handle the bat, and there is no reason to keep him down on the farm.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 23, 2011 12:35 PM EST up reply actions
Myers had video game numbers in High A
Except for improved power, he’s not going to hit much better than his high A numbers. No one could.
I disagree,
but my disagreement is based entirely on the fact that his video game numbers will look even more ridiculous thanks to his presumably absurd numbers in the Bandbox in NWA.
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Jan 23, 2011 10:58 PM EST up reply actions
So a AA line of
435/612/820 is about what you’re expecting?
No
more like 638/785/1345
Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity
by Old Man Duggan on Jan 23, 2011 11:23 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
He could do that in AA
And we’d STILL have dudes talking about rigging his clock.
AAA is very important
AAA is loaded with old guys who have played in the major leagues. Pitchers who might not be great but have full sets of pitches that they know how to throw, and when to throw them.
Your average AA pitcher might might not throw all his pitches yet, might not be a good pitch chooser, doesn’t have a an experienced catcher to help him.
Proper time practising against guys who know what their doing is invaluable/
by kcbottom9th on Jan 23, 2011 11:36 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Because him doing anything the majors this year or next year is likely wasted service time.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
People ask me what I do in winter when there’s no baseball...Rock Chalk Talk
Exactly.
What’s the point of bringing up your stud, when the rest of your team stinks? Bring him up when he’s ready, but if you can game the service time you have to do it, there’s no way the Royals can sign a stud like that when he gets to free agency.
If Wil Myers is indeed this awesome, do we offer him a Longoria-type contract in his 1st month in the big leagues?
Myers could've went to Arkansas this year if it wasn't for the glove.
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
As long as you assume that he continues to dominate at every level, doesn’t require a full season at AA and AAA, has no hiccups, setbacks or significant injuries and takes to the OF very quickly. Again, this is best case scenario. While possible, I don’t think we should ever expect the base case scenario from a prospect, especially one who hasn’t even played above high-A yet. I love this prospect. I’m very optimistic about him. I’m just not going to say we should expect the base case scenario.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 12:56 PM EST up reply actions
He DOMINATED Wimington!
Hosmer and Moustakas struggled quite a bit their first go around in Wilmington. Myers is a better bat, and RF is not as tough to learn as Catcher. He should go to AA and keep that pace.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 23, 2011 12:59 PM EST up reply actions
He might even hit better without the stress of catching wearing on his mind/body
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
And excellent prospects who dominate (offensively only) in the Carolina League
Should always be expected to get to the majors 1.5 seasons later at age 21? Sorry, but that is still best case scenario. Great prospects don’t always just rush through the minors at light speed. It can happen. It might happen for Myers. But you are still assuming that everything will go just right.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 1:13 PM EST up reply actions
I read, he had alot of defensive issues in Burlington, but
I didn’t hear anything about how poorly he played Catcher in Wilmington. He had something like 23 passed balls in Burlington, but I never heard about passed balls in Wilmington. Did he improve or did people stop discussing it b/c they knew he was making the move?
by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 23, 2011 1:19 PM EST up reply actions
I can't answer that
But I imagine that if they are moving him from catcher to the OF, it in part means that his catching skills didn’t improve much after his promotion to Wilmington.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 1:21 PM EST up reply actions
Or could it be that they want to speed up his timetable?
He would have been a below avg to avg Catcher in 2013, but I think they want him to be an avg to above avg RF in 2012. I don’t have the inside, but I do have a feeling they are thinking about getting him to KC in 2012.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 23, 2011 1:30 PM EST up reply actions
but I do have a feeling they are thinking about getting him to KC in 2012.
Why, so Myers can help a non-contending team not contend? If Myers makes his major league debut in mid 2012, the Royals would have control of him from 2012-2018. If he makes his major league debut in late April 2013, they would have control of him from 2013-2019. That essential trades one non-contending year for a potentially contending year. I would choose the later. I hope Dayton agrees.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 1:36 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
Try to keep up; this is the fast lane
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 24, 2011 1:36 AM EST up reply actions
It was a joke.
A lot of prospect reports and/or rumors start like this: “An anonymous scout told me…”
Dude, it would make more sense to call him up in 2013
And no, not anywhere close to everyone disagrees with me on this point. You just want him up as soon as possible because you want to “win now! Yaaaay!” You are just an impatient fan who isn’t interested in the big picture.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 2:36 PM EST up reply actions
No
I’m just a guy who sees another guy being really stubborn, and all because he has a difference of opinion that is based a big lack of information. I actually trust the Royals to do this right. I just want to make sure that everyone here is keeping in mind that we don’t have a clue until he starts playing again. Not that we can’t talk about this, but we probably shouldn’t be arguing vehemently. Sorry for the harsh response and the f bomb.
Just to clarify
The post that you replied to a couple of posts up wasn’t even talking about when Myers might be MLB-ready (although that is of course speculative). I was talking about the wisdom of calling him up in 2012 vs. 2013, even if he’s 100% MLB-ready by mid-2012. I think it makes more sense for the Royals to call him up in April 2013.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 2:52 PM EST up reply actions
I disagree with him ALL the time...
But i agree with him on this one. Wholeheartedly.
The only exception would be that in the outside chance that the Royals are competing for a playoff berth in july/august ‘12 AND Myers is raking in AAA AND he’s playing passable defense. if all of those planets align, then sure, bring him up. if not, i’d much prefer to trade his ’12 season for his ’19 season.
And let me just say that if Free Agency were abolished tomorrow, from a fan’s perspective, I’d almost prefer that the Royals played all prospects this year. As it is, I’m going to be following the royals minor league games as closely as the internets lets me. And i’ll have as much invested in AA games, emotionally, as in the ML games. But Free Agency won’t be abolished tomorrow, and so if we really care about the long-term competitiveness of the franchise, it’s vital that Moore et al continues to squeeze out every season possible from their best prospects. Even if that means we have to wait a season or so to see our favorite prospects.
by billexgordler on Jan 23, 2011 10:46 PM EST up reply actions
I mean mid 2012 and April 2013 are the same. He would be a super two in the second scenario, giving us 6 years of control instead of 7 if he gets brought up midseason.
At most a team gets 6 full seasons of team control, plus a big chunk of a 7th season
If Myers is called up in 2012 and stays in the majors going forward, then his six full seasons will be 2013-18 with the time in 2012 being his partial 7th season. If his service time clock starts a couple weeks into April 2013, then the Royals get the remainder of 2013 plus six full seasons (through 2019).
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
I’m not sure what you’re asking, but super two status only affects when the player has his first arbitration year and how many arb years he’ll have. It doesn’t affect the total number of team control years (which is still six plus the vast majority of a seventh).
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 4:27 PM EST up reply actions
Is there any threshold for the amount of time a player has to have to constitute a full season?
Is getting a seventh year as simple as calling a player up after opening day?
I’d have to look it up, but I believe the rule is that 162 days of MLB service time = one year for this purpose, even though the season is a little longer than that. So the player needs to be called up sometime in the latter half of the season’s first month.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 4:34 PM EST up reply actions
If Wikipedia can be trusted,
one year is acrued with 172 days of ML service time. The season is 182 days long.
(August 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT) Jojothebeachbum: "WP FTW"
by Jojothebeachbum on Jan 23, 2011 4:38 PM EST up reply actions
There you go. I remember there being 2’s in there.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 4:40 PM EST up reply actions
Im trying to find a link to post.
(August 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT) Jojothebeachbum: "WP FTW"
by Jojothebeachbum on Jan 23, 2011 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
Eh here we go...kinda
What Players Are Eligible for Arbitration?
A player and club who cannot agree on a contract may agree to salary arbitration, provided that the player has enough service time in the majors. The following players are eligible for arbitration:
(1) Players with at least 3 but less than 6 years of service in Major League Baseball;
(2) The top 17 percent of players with at least 2 but less than 3 years of Major League service. These are known as "Super 2" players. To qualify as a Super 2, a player must have accumulated at least 86 days of service in the previous year. Historically, the cutoff point for Super 2 status is 2 years, 128 days of service, though the requirement has been as high as 2 years, 140 days in years past.
(3) Players who have filed for free agency may also go through the arbitration process if their former team makes an offer of arbitration and the player accepts.
(August 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT) Jojothebeachbum: "WP FTW"
by Jojothebeachbum on Jan 23, 2011 4:48 PM EST up reply actions
Gopherballs wrote an excellent comment under Will’s post about gaming service time clocks. I’ll cut-and-paste the relevant portions:
Free Agency: To get the “extra” year out of the player before he becomes a free agent, the team would have to wait about two weeks into the season before calling up a player. This would prevent the player from incurring a full season of service time for 2011 (172 days = one year of service time) and thus delay free agency by a year.
Arbitration: To avoid a player from obtaining “Super Two” status and being eligible for arbitration before the player has three full years of MLB service time, the team would need to wait until approximately June before calling up the player. This would prevent the player from incurring more than 125 days of service time for 2011 (historically, the earliest cutoff for Super Two eligibility has been two years, 125 days of MLB service time). Super Two status has no effect on when a player become a free agent, but just means the player will get paid more, as he would be eligible for arbitration four times before free agency instead of the usual three.
These are the reasons why Moustakas and company are not expected to be called up until June, or at the very least, stay in the minors for the first two weeks of the season (like Evan Longoria did as a rookie). The two weeks delays free agency by the "extra" year. The "extra" year of service time is more important than avoiding the extra year of arbitration, so it is not the end of the world if a major league ready prospect gets called up before June.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
See? Thats the kind
of broad outline that I was looking for. But the rules are dependent on that player being in the top 17% of cumulative playing time for players between 2 and 3 years, so theoretically a prospect could be brought up on opening day (or two days later, etc.) if it still doesnt put him in the top 17% right?
(August 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT) Jojothebeachbum: "WP FTW"
by Jojothebeachbum on Jan 23, 2011 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
If I understand what you’re suggesting, then yes it is theoretically possible for a player to be called up then and still not be in the top 17% and thus avoid super two status, but it is a practical near impossibility. If avoiding super two designation for a prospect is important to a team, then they really need to hold off calling him up until June to be safe.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
I think that the 17%
applies to the extra year of team control as well. So I’m thinking it might be possible to bring a prospect up, for instance, 5 days after the season begins and still control them for 6 full years and the piece of the 7th. I just want to see Moose, Myers, the pitchers, etc. as soon into a season as possible.
(August 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT) Jojothebeachbum: "WP FTW"
by Jojothebeachbum on Jan 23, 2011 5:45 PM EST up reply actions
You get the 6 full seasons plus almost all of a 7th season regardless. 17% doesn’t enter into it. That is only for super 2 status. So if a player is called up in the second half of the first month of the season, you’re golden and you get almost 7 full seasons.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 8:47 PM EST up reply actions
He was splitting time between catching and DH because of
Salvador Perez
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
No very optimistic is midseason Omaha
and called up with Hosmer. That is the path I’m betting he actually takes. I’ve seen his bat, approach, his movement and arm. The kid is for real.
I’ll get some more video of him in the spring. I get what you are getting at you don’t want to be too optimistic which is very understandable but there is a reason I’ve kept him as my #1 prospect. IMO he’s the real deal
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
Perhaps the more petinent question is
Who has the better arm Myers or Eibner?
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
Well, I agree
But there’s been some discussion of playing Hos in the OF. Who plays RF?
I think that Eibner ends up on a corner
and Hosmer is stuck at 1B. Kila is on borrowed time after the events of yesterday. Lorenzo Cain is going to get every opportunity in CF to justify the Greinke deal. Plus I kind of like Schaums idea of Jackie Bradley Jr. with the 5th pick in this years draft.
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
how about Gordon or Myers
would it make more sense to move Gordon to RF and have Myers play LF? I think which outfield position he plays will tell us alot about Gordon’s future with the team.
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
Don't read too much into this...
Jesse Chavez is listed as a P.
(August 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT) Jojothebeachbum: "WP FTW"
by Jojothebeachbum on Jan 23, 2011 7:25 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
also Meche and Hughes are still on the
reliever depth chart.
Go Royals!
Thats because
Meche and Hughes were still very recently pitchers on this team….Chavez….not so much
(August 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT) Jojothebeachbum: "WP FTW"
by Jojothebeachbum on Jan 24, 2011 12:01 AM EST up reply actions
Please, let's not rush players.
they need to hit at all levels, including seeing AAA breaking balls. I really want to see our hitter, even more than the pitchers get at least 1/2 a season season at AAA
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 23, 2011 12:55 PM EST up reply actions 4 recs
this
Proud Founding Memeber of the UPAMTN Fan Club.
by la flama blanca on Jan 23, 2011 2:46 PM EST up reply actions
Free Myers?
(August 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT) Jojothebeachbum: "WP FTW"
by Jojothebeachbum on Jan 24, 2011 12:02 AM EST up reply actions
Why Not? We
Freed Willie
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 24, 2011 1:49 AM EST up reply actions
See? I think the problem with Bloomy
was that he used too many letters in his first name….Billy = good, Wil = amazing…if he had just gone by W Bloomquist, those 3-hole starts and walk-offs would have increased exponentially.
(August 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT) Jojothebeachbum: "WP FTW"
by Jojothebeachbum on Jan 24, 2011 10:34 AM EST up reply actions
Freed Wilie?
"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
Follow me: Twitter.com/gobroks
I wonder if this has more to do with how the Royals feel about Salvador Perez
Than whether or not Wil could have stuck at catcher. Perez is my top candidate for a breakout year, especially if he moves to the friendly confines at Northwest Arkansas.
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
I really don’t think so. Generally, leg prospects develop the way in which maximizes their value. If you have two stud SS I believe you still develop both at SS and then either have one play 2B later if you can’t get fair value.
Myers didnt want to play catcher. He wasn’t very good at playing catcher. Our management likes having a defense first catcher out there. His bat is very advanced but people doubted he could ever be a good defensive catcher.
I think this is more about maximizing Myers’ value by placing him at a position where he can be a good defender.
by WURoyal on Jan 23, 2011 12:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I was just wondering if it made the decision to move a long from the catching idea
Because he was stuggling so much at it on a team that from all accounts has a guy that is MLB ready defensively at the position, but just needs to work on his offense. It would have to be a little disheartening to give up a bunch of passed balls every time you play in the field, and when you watch another guy who almost your same age go out and do well defensively.
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
I could see that if it was a move at the ML level or something, but in this instance we have a guy who simply doesn’t look like he’ll be able to handle catching duties for a major league team. His defense was bad and it was not improving at a rate where they felt comfortable he’d ever be halfway close to average.
I think that’s the more dominant concern.
I asked Schaum what he thought Myers' timetable is after this move on twitter:
Greg_Schaum greg schaum
@Gantz9 I think Wil Myers is ready mid season 2012
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
When is the last time a prospect analyst predicted an bumps in the road of a top prospect?
And yet they happen quite often. But prospect fetishists see extremely high ceilings all over the place, unrealistic comps and extremely short paths to the majors. Look back about 5 years and compare the ETA’s of prospect analysts to the reality.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 2:39 PM EST up reply actions
I think when a player has to move from a premium defensive
postion to a non premium postion, it is a bump in the road. I also think that Colon has hit this bump in the road. These are not positive things that are happening, they are negative things about the prospects. If Hosmer going to move from first base to play right field, that is a positive sign.
Go Royals!
I see no reason why not
full AA this season…
half a season at AAA in 2012…why not if the Royals are playing for something and he makes sense…his bat could help..
But, I don’t see any reason he can’t compete for a job in ST 2013
I think that
a full season in AA this year is a good idea. And half a season in AAA in 2012 might be enough to get him ready, but I don’t think the Royals will be in a position to sacrifice a year of control for a late push, even with a substantial record improvement in 2012. But here’s to hoping Moose mashes and one or two of the Fab Four come in throwing gems.
(August 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT) Jojothebeachbum: "WP FTW"
by Jojothebeachbum on Jan 23, 2011 5:23 PM EST up reply actions
This assumes no bumps in the road, setbacks, failures to progress, significant injuries or significant difficulty in transitioning to the outfield, correct? So essentially if all goes well, he’ll be MLB-ready in 2012.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
there you go
Yes, exactly…so a lot of stuff could happen either way…But, If it goes well…and I think it will he will be ready at that time…Now the contract stuff and whether or not the Royals are playing for anything certainly goes into whether it is right or not to bring him up
to be clear
No one thought Heyward would be ready when he was….no one thought Trout would advance as he has….Myers is that kind of talent…I have no doubt he can play OF and he has been preparing for this for awhile…He was paying OF in instructs…did not catch at all
and he has played there b4…we are taking about professional athletes here..and Myers is a very good one…He will be fine in the OF and I am guessing he will actually be a pretty good defensive OF
It does seem
Like the guys at the very very top of the Top 100 Prospects list seem to have much fewer bumps. Of course, you do have the Andy Martes of the world.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
If anything...
You could compare his switch to Gordon and he has several advantages on Gordon: he’s played OF before, he’s more athletic, better arm, and taller. Maybe he’ll be a HR robber.
Now this "robber" idea has potential...
Because we were talking about Harper’s eye black earlier, anyone think we could convince Myers to paint a burglar’s mask on before every game?
(August 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT) Jojothebeachbum: "WP FTW"
by Jojothebeachbum on Jan 24, 2011 12:04 AM EST up reply actions
A little ahead of ourselves
But after he robs 1 home run, YES!
by hawkinscm87 on Jan 24, 2011 12:38 AM EST up reply actions
I can see
that becoming a trend at the K….fans coming dressed as the Hamburglar.
(August 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT) Jojothebeachbum: "WP FTW"
by Jojothebeachbum on Jan 24, 2011 10:35 AM EST up reply actions
I think he's right on
Especially with his connection to the Royals Front office.
I would say later 2012, but he’ll be up in September next year for a cup of coffee… unless we have some guys on the 40 we don’t want to move, then June 2013 so we keep him from Super Two …
He'll only come up for a September cup of coffee if the Royals front office cares nothing about having an extra year of team control over him
And given how they’ve handled the service clock of Butler and Hochevar, I think they care. And that extra year of team control is what his really important. The super two thing is a distant second.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 24, 2011 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
September
He can come up in September without permanently messing up his clock; it just delays his call up a bit the following year.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Jan 24, 2011 9:45 PM EST up reply actions
But what's the point?
Why bother calling him up in September if you know you are not going to go with him in April?
What if he goes all Albert Pujols in September? Be really tough to demote him in April.
by kcbottom9th on Jan 24, 2011 10:27 PM EST up reply actions
And if 2013 is more likely to be a contending season than 2012, wouldn’t we rather have that monthy of service time in 2013 rather than 2012?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Jan 25, 2011 8:16 AM EST up reply actions
I think Myers being ready by 2012 is unrealistic. Possible, but unrealistic.
I mean…have you guys already forgotten what happened to Gordon? Do we not recall Butler crushing AAA….and then having to be sent back down there again??? Sh*t happens..just b/c people say it is unrealistic to expect him to be ML ready by 2012 doesn’t mean we are saying he sucks or it is impossible for it to happen..just that it isn’t very likely.
God, get a grip people.
Killing time until time kills me
I remember gordon
Switching to OF after never playing it before and doing a decent job in a few months, if that.
I guess people just look at what they want to look at sometimes
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 2:49 PM EST up reply actions
Not sure what that has to do with when he will be MLB ready. I have no doubt Myers can eventually be a competent outfielder.....but that doesn't mean he will achieve the best case scenario.
Killing time until time kills me
Ladies And Gentlemen
Brad Hawpe.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 24, 2011 1:58 AM EST up reply actions
No, nothing will slow the Royals prospects
Really good prospects never have problems above the high-A level. I mean, once you dominate the Midwest League and the Carolina League, it’s pretty much smoothe sailing for the rest of your professional career.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 2:48 PM EST up reply actions
Gordon was unlucky
That he played in Wichita.
Two years later and he would be boosted by the forcefield of greatness at NWA.
Take Gordon for example.
His season at AA was amazing!
.325 .427 .588
That proves Wil will be ready!
What could go wrong?
He was the #2 prospect in baseball so everything was going to be great, and soon too.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 2:53 PM EST up reply actions
Only Matsuzaka was ahead of him
And he shouldn’t really count.
He was the #1 real prospect in the game.
Gordon is a very clear case of why guys need AAA
But even when he has played there he has crushed the ball. The problem with Gordon is his long swing. I have not heard anything about Myers’ swing so i don’t know how the comparison works.
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
Which is interesting
He has this flaw in his game, a long swing. And yet, these scouts who we are all supposed to take as gospel didn’t mention it and proceeded to rank him sky high. One little thing that numbers might not pick up but an eyeball would and silence.
What does that say?
by kcbottom9th on Jan 23, 2011 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
They thought his pitch recognition would develop as well as his batting eye did.
Man, were they wrong.
Which is odd because the guy will still take more walks than anyone not named
Kila on this roster
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
He has an incredible batting eye.
It was considered the best in the minors, but he has no clue what pitch is coming and can’t recognize an inside breaking ball with a gun to his head.
You would think that batting eye and pitch recognition would go hand in hand
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
Yeah, no prospect analyst talked about a problem with his swing back when he was thought to be a mega-prospect
They said his swing was a thing of beauty which should continue to make good contact and power. Suddenly the scouting analysis morphed into “his swing is too long” when he had trouble handling MLB pitching.
Your right to point out the inherent flaws of scouting. When guys are crushing the ball in the minors, their stance, swing, bat speed, etc. look great! Projecting a player based on these skills is quite difficult. That’s a key reason why so many prospects fail. Judging tools really isn’t that easy. Gordon’s tools were not evaluated well. They missed something. Quite a lot, actually. We don’t know if the scouts are missing things or inaccurately evaluating the talent of Myers, Moose, Hosmer, Duffy, Montgomery or any prospect. Myers or any prospect really could hit a wall at any point.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 3:05 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Scouts ten to fall in love with athleticism
Which Gordon has in spades.
Actually, scouts talk about Meyers swing a lot.
They don’t like it very much.
Go Royals!
That makes me feel much better
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 4:09 PM EST up reply actions
It can best be desribed as ugly.
Go Royals!
Those same scouts
that say Chapman’s fastball could stand to gain an MPH or two? :)
(August 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT) Jojothebeachbum: "WP FTW"
by Jojothebeachbum on Jan 23, 2011 5:14 PM EST up reply actions
Well on the positive side...
Meyers swing is robbing him of part of his power, so he could even be a better hitter then what he is.
Go Royals!
Let's see if Mark McGuire
can spare some time to come “tudor” him
(August 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT) Jojothebeachbum: "WP FTW"
by Jojothebeachbum on Jan 23, 2011 5:32 PM EST up reply actions
He destroyed the Carolina league while swinging
mostly with just his arms. Wil could be a monster.
Go Royals!
To be fair
The stat guys loved him to and when any detractors pointed out his high K rates both in college and in the minors, stat guys responded “strikeouts don’t matter!”
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Ks for a hitter are not that important, if they are crushing the ball
Alex is not crushing the ball. I really need to did deep into Alex’s approach.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 24, 2011 12:26 AM EST up reply actions
Yeah, no prospect analyst talked about a problem with his swing back when he was thought to be a mega-prospect
They said his swing was a thing of beauty which should continue to make good contact and power. Suddenly the scouting analysis morphed into “his swing is too long” when he had trouble handling MLB pitching.
Your right to point out the inherent flaws of scouting. When guys are crushing the ball in the minors, their stance, swing, bat speed, etc. look great! Projecting a player based on these skills is quite difficult. That’s a key reason why so many prospects fail. Judging tools really isn’t that easy. Gordon’s tools were not evaluated well. They missed something. Quite a lot, actually. We don’t know if the scouts are missing things or inaccurately evaluating the talent of Myers, Moose, Hosmer, Duffy, Montgomery or any prospect. Myers or any prospect really could hit a wall at any point.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
Anything can happen
But these young guys are all that most Royals fans have to hold on to at this point. Picking one of, if not the best hitting prospect in the system to need full seasons at both AA and AAA is tough for some people to swallow when a guy that did not have as good a track record at A+ ball two seasons ago in Moustakas makes it to AAA after less than a season in AA. I have no problem with keeping Myers around as long as possible, but will there really be anyone good enough on the 2012 MLB roster to block him? Time will tell.
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
There isn't even anyone on the 2011 good enough to block him
But being blocked very likely isn’t going to be the issues. The issues should be 1) is he sufficiently talented and developed to be MLB-ready? and 2) is it the best time for the organization to promote him?
Fans will be impatient. We’ve dealt with embarrassing losing seasons for way too long. Fans will want talent in the majors as soon as possible. But the Royals front office needs to do what is best for the team in the long-term to maximize Myers production and value to the team. There are circumstances in which this means promoting him mid-2012. I just don’t think that confluence of events is the most likely outcome.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 3:00 PM EST up reply actions
Hmm
So I guess the real question here is who do we see out of Moose, Hosmer, and Myers as the linchpin to this rebuilding process? I think Hosmer will end up being THE guy from this bunch.
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
I think it is way too soon to tell
All of them could succeed, but that is very unlikely. All of them could fail, but that is also very unlikely. We really have no idea which will perform the best. There’s a lot of information we can use to make informed speculations, but we really have no idea. It is really hard to predict what will become of prospects. Baseball history is littered with tons of top prospects who have succeeded and who have failed dismally (and everything in between).
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 3:10 PM EST up reply actions
no, there is nothing unreallistic about expecting him to be ML ready by sometime in 2012
that still gives him a full season in AA and half or more in AAA. or half in AA and full in AAA. that’s a lot.
and continuing to reference Gordon is dumb as hell. prospects spend less than 2 years in AA/AAA all the time and pan out.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
I'm not sure that the argument is that he will fail like Gordon did if he doesn't spend
extended time in AAA. It is more along the lines of what’s the rush?
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
I guess he's saying you should expect the best case scenario
Because the best case scenario is usually what happens for baseball prospects.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 23, 2011 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
I can see where that is coming from with Myers
The guy has hit since he signed. Wasn’t his first pro hit a HR?
Jamie freakin Wright, nuff said.
Of all the prospects
Myers is the one who seems to be too good to be true, at least to me.
The issue is really
Whether we’ll see him in the majors in 2012. I think it’s very realistic that he’ll be ML ready by August or September of 2012, but the organization is much more likely to keep him at AAA to game his service clock. Unless the Royals are in contention in September 2012 ( and I mean, serious contention), we gain more value controlling him for an extra year then by bringing him up just to get his feet wet in a lost season.
(August 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT) Jojothebeachbum: "WP FTW"
by Jojothebeachbum on Jan 23, 2011 4:03 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Even bringing up Gordon in this discussion is dumb? Well that's pretty ridiculous.
So what, when talking about the chances of whether a highly touted prospect will be ready within a certain timeframe, we are only allowed to talk about those that were able to do it, while even BRINGING UP those that didn’t make it is “dumb as hell.”
Very nice. Well, perhaps your reading skills could use some work. Nobody said Myers most definitely end up like Gordon. In my post, I said it’s certainly possible that he could be ready by 2012, I just don’t think it’s that likely. Instead of just dismissing every opinion contrary to yours as “dumb as hell,” you could actually try to engage in intelligent baseball discussion.
Bringing up Gordon and other (so-far) failures is most certainly valid. Bringing up guys like Longoria is also valid. What is not valid is only looking at one side of the argument while just calling the other side “dumb as hell” just because you don’t agree.
Killing time until time kills me
Exactly
And especially talking about the switch to OF, Gordon’s case is super-relevant. And as I said already on this thread, if Gordon can switch after never playing before and become decent in a few months, Myers can do it in 1 1/2 years.
Here's another thing..
Do we really want to start Myers’ clock as a 21 year old? If he is able to adjust, acclimating to the majors at an earlier age is good for his career prospects… but is it good for the Royals? You essentially relinquish his age 29 season to get him MLB experience at 21.
I would assume there’s some risk involved with this strategy, but I sometimes wonder if teams like the Royals do not maximize the value they get out of service “windows.” For instance, what looks more valuable to you?: Wil Myers as an Outfielder from ages 21 to 28 or Wil Myers as a Catcher from 23 to 30? I would almost assume that the latter gives up some of his offensive ceiling, but despite that, it looks quite a bit more valuable to me.
Maybe the issue is irrelevant because Myers cannot stick at catcher anyway, or keeping him in the minors to develop defensively would impede his offensive development to an equal or greater degree. But the consensus seems to be that this is an overwhelmingly logical decision, and I’m not sure that I agree; especially when talking about one of baseball’s lowest revenue teams and its potential to extend players into free agency.
I see the most value
as Myers as an OF from age 22 – 28. That takes into account the position he plays that most helps the team and the longest amount of time that he’s “in his prime.” I feel like keeping him in the minors til he’s 23 just to hone a subpar catching skill hurts the team and denies them a power bat in the middle as the other pieces are coming together.
(August 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT) Jojothebeachbum: "WP FTW"
by Jojothebeachbum on Jan 23, 2011 5:41 PM EST up reply actions
Have you ever watched him catch?
Beyond a doubt, the worst catcher I saw last year at any level of professional baseball. And everyone said he wasn’t bad. Yeah… no sugar coating there.
Unless he's just atrociously bad
I think a subpar performance at catcher is still worth quite a bit more than a corner outfiled role, unless it has big-time effects on his offense as well, but I respect a differing opinion.
But in terms of general philosophy, I wonder if teams like the Royals wouldn’t be better served to stash away good hitters in the minors for a little bit “too long,” if you know what I mean. Sort of like the Phillies did with Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, where the player needs very little adjustment time to the majors, but with the different expectation that the club will not necessarily be able to sign the player long-term.
As far as the defense is concerned,
everything I’ve heard says that Myers has almost no shot to stick at catcher. Without doing any “real research,” I’m not sure where his real weakness is, but let’s just assume he’s below average in all the main “catcher elements.” That presumably means that he’s going to cost of some runs behind the plate with passed balls, bad game-calling, etc, which will detract from the value he brings with his bat. But his cannon of an arm and general athletic ability figure to actually be a benefit as a COF, which only adds value to his bat. And in the OF he figures to contribute in more games than behind the plate (unless he shows a Kendall-esque streak of toughness).
As far as the stashing point goes, I think the Royals benefit from continuing to try get their main prospects to the bigs at their current pace. Even a less-than-expected prospect development path figures to yield us 3 good pitchers, 2 mashers, and better-than-average overall defense. The more pieces we can get up in the majors at the same time, the better shot we have at making a run at the playoffs. I’d rather get our studs all up together for a few years and worry about restocking the farm behind them than holding some of our talent back for the future. If we go into it the process with the mentality that all of our best players will develop and sign big deals elsewhere, let’s take one or two real shots at a ring before they start moving on.
(August 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT) Jojothebeachbum: "WP FTW"
by Jojothebeachbum on Jan 24, 2011 12:26 AM EST up reply actions
Don't forget
that we could stand to trade some prospects for a proven player down the road. Soria could also go, but that seems less likely every day.
by hawkinscm87 on Jan 24, 2011 12:41 AM EST up reply actions
Heh. I think we should
wait until we start putting a decent product on the field and are one or two established vets away from the playoffs before we start trading our prospects away.
(August 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT) Jojothebeachbum: "WP FTW"
by Jojothebeachbum on Jan 24, 2011 10:37 AM EST up reply actions
He's No Wizard
At blocking balls either. Maybe his ex is, though
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 25, 2011 3:26 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
I missed math class
but isnt 3 X 0 still 0?
(August 31, 2010 8:34 PM PDT) Jojothebeachbum: "WP FTW"
by Jojothebeachbum on Jan 24, 2011 7:31 PM EST up reply actions
I thought I read that his main issue was slow feet
"You think someone that big would be more well endowed" Aubrey Huff's mother on Pat Burrell
I thought he was going to punch me and I was totally accepting of it. I was planning a reason to thank him if he did." Brian Wilson on Buster Posey
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What about Moore's contract
No one has really brought that up. Isn’t he only signed through the 2012 season? Or is it 2013? If the Royals haven’t had a winning team by the time Moore’s contract is up, he might not be getting another extension. If Myers is ready, and I think he could be, and the Royals want a chance to win in 2012 or even 2013, they need him to be playing.
I think the move to RF will push Myers timetable up substantially. Yes, it is always possible that a prospect will have a bad season or flat out fail. But his chances of being in KC by mid 2012 definitely got better with the move to RF.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 24, 2011 11:29 AM EST reply actions
So he needs to win in 2013 and 2014 to get that next contract
Right? He needs to hope that Myers, Hosmer, and the pitchers really push the timetable. If they are all rookies in 2013, he isn’t getting another contract. I doubt Glass pays enough attention to the future, so he won’t stop Moore from advancing them quickly to save his job.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 24, 2011 12:35 PM EST reply actions
I don't want to argue about Myer's timetable
(it’s 2012 if EVERYTHING goes right, 2013 is arguably the higher probability, and 2014 if significant “bumps in the road” are encountered)
What I want to express, instead, is happiness. Happiness that the organization might make an adjustment PRIOR to Myers getting too close to the majors. Yes, I’m beating the dead horse again – but they DESERVE it, for not being able to forcast that Butler couldn’t handle outfield in a big park like the K SOONER than they did! Duh!
If this means they are being more thoughtful/realistic about their prospects going forward, then this move is certainly worth applauding on those merits alone!
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
this is definitely a sign of progress
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 24, 2011 6:09 PM EST up reply actions
I think they probably had a good idea he wouldn't be good in the OF
but I don’t think there was any way to predict that he would be Jose Guillen times 20 bad.
Might as well let him try, he just might surprise. If he really has lost more weight and is stronger this year, we could see better defense (more agility) and a power breakout.
looking at his build even when he was drafted....
it was clear he wasnt going to be good out there
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 24, 2011 8:26 PM EST up reply actions
















