Slightly OT: Who is the next Neyer (who was the next James)?

If Rob Neyer was this generation's Bill James, who will be the next Neyer?

over 1 year ago minda33 36 comments 0 recs |

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maybe i wasnt paying that much attention in neyers early days...

but was he really on even close to the same level as bill james?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 31, 2011 4:50 PM EST reply actions

In terms of writing or anaylsis - no

In fact, Rob really doesn’t do much analysis, he’s a writer.

But in terms of impact, yes, Neyer is about as important. Bill James was the first to tell a bunch of nerds that things like OBA might be pretty important. Neyer is the one that told the whole world.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 31, 2011 4:52 PM EST up reply actions

Yep, that.

Neyer didn’t do NEW things like James did. He just brought stuff from the not-yet-popular Jamesian viewpoint to the masses.

WTF, self?

by minda33 on Jan 31, 2011 4:54 PM EST up reply actions

Murray Chass

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 31, 2011 4:51 PM EST reply actions 3 recs

Not sure the "next" format holds up

Tom Tango has been one of the most prolific idea guys — he co-wrote “The Book,” improved upon Voros McCracken’s Defensive Independent Pitching (DIPs) theory to come up with Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), invented MARCELS, and came up with wOBA. He has not stepped into the mainstream limelight like James or Neyer, but he makes himself publicly available while also consulting for teams.

Nate Silver and the early Baseball Prospectus crew helped move statistical analysis more toward the mainstream in the first half of the 00’s. Silver left to go onto bigger and better things, and BP suffered through a period where it seemed to go into brand protection mode rather than staying on the cutting edge, but was the “go to” place in the Moneyball era and has hired a bunch of real smart guys in the last couple of years.

Mitchel Lichtman, another co-author of The Book, developed UZR, the best of the publicly available play by play defensive metrics and has consulted for at least one MLB team.

In more recent years and setting aside what you might think about some of their authors (hey-oh), David Appleman’s Fangraphs site has been revolutionary in making advanced statistics freely available and accessible. Dave Cameron is the most public face, although his somewhat prickly personality probably keeps him from achieving the same type of popularity as Neyer (outside of some Royals fans, just about everyone likes Neyer, even if they do not agree with him).

One problem is that the best work might be done by guys who work for MLB teams with strict confidentiality provisions so that their work never sees the light of day except by guys in the Rays or Red Sox front office.

by Gopherballs on Jan 31, 2011 5:06 PM EST reply actions

2 authors still in college that I see moving up are

RJ Anderson
and
Tommy Benett

- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …

by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 31, 2011 5:41 PM EST up reply actions

Ron Polk

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 31, 2011 5:53 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs

Haha

by hawkinscm87 on Jan 31, 2011 8:40 PM EST up reply actions

rj anderson from draysbay?

is that the guy from drays bay?

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 31, 2011 6:27 PM EST up reply actions

used to be there and Beyond the Box Score

Then he was at FanGraphs (and also recently helped start start a new Rays blog called “Process Report”). He just started at Baseball Prospectus yesterday.

Yeah, R.J. started blogging when he was no older than 15, I reckon. Scary.

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Feb 1, 2011 8:59 AM EST up reply actions

One problem is that the best work might be done by guys who work for MLB teams with strict confidentiality provisions so that their work never sees the light of day except by guys in the Rays or Red Sox front office.

But that’s the best statistical work. That’s not going to move the masses to look at baseball differently, which is what I’m looking for here. It’s gonna have to be a writer, right?

WTF, self?

by minda33 on Jan 31, 2011 5:43 PM EST up reply actions

that's the issue with the "next" format

The statistical work and writing go together. James did statistical work and then wrote about it. Neyer worked for James and then wrote about stats. Tango’s writing is compelling because he is writing about his statistical work, which has moved the masses to look at baseball differently (with the help of other writers). Silver is in the same boat. There is a good chance that the next breakthrough (if it has not already occurred) is likely something with pitching or defense that uses proprietary data, which might move the masses if they only could read about it.

If you are talking only about writers, the Bill Simmons’ column embracing statistical analysis from a year or two ago was a watershed event, even if it was only because the most-read sports columnist in the country said “I need to pay attention to this stuff because it can help my fantasy team.”

by Gopherballs on Jan 31, 2011 6:02 PM EST up reply actions

yeah...if he'd get even more into it....

and write about it more frequently….thats the way its going to go mainstream

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Jan 31, 2011 6:28 PM EST up reply actions

What would it take to even go to that next level?

Its very likely the next level isn’t some new statistical analytical device, but, like Neyer, a new platform. The “next Neyer” could very well be the media personality who gets to host a show on sabermetrics.

Is it even possible there would be a “next Neyer/James”? Once you have your groundbreakers, its hard to break ground again.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 31, 2011 6:36 PM EST reply actions

yeah, probably needs to be someone on TV

but TV has some serious format issues (besides ESPN’s in-house studies suggesting that casual viewers get turned off by too many stats). The biggest issue is that most broadcasts are game day oriented, either studio shows previewing or recapping games or game broadcasts themselves. Sabermetrics can only do so much for in-game analysis where the sampe size is at bat by at bat. Sure, all the stats in the world may suggest that a team should never hit TPJ leadoff, but 20% of the time, he is still going to get a hit and show up the computers.

It might work best as a Gammons supporting player situation where the analyst does a two-to-three minute segment, sits off to the side of the studio desk adding chestnuts from time to time, and then pops up now and again from the studio during game broadcasts. It could even start as something as basic as pitchers who are likely to see their ERA rise or fall (to fall in line with their FIP or fluky component stats like BABIP or HR rates) or hitters who are likely to perform better or worse (based on their Marcels, etc.).

Fox hit a home run when it added the former NFL official to its studio show (and game broadcasts sometimes) to break down replays and rule interpretations. His segments are instructive yet short enough that the casual viewer does not realize, hey, talking about the rules is boring. Something like that could work on baseball broadcasts.

by Gopherballs on Jan 31, 2011 7:48 PM EST up reply actions

But

TV is also turning very much into a niche platform like the internet. I mean, there are four different shows about cake bakeries! Surely we can get one show about sabermetrics?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 31, 2011 7:55 PM EST up reply actions

the MLB Network should do something like that

They really shouldn’t infuse all of their discussions with wOBA, WAR, etc., but I think there would be interest in at least a weekly show dealing with sabermetric voodoo.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 31, 2011 9:55 PM EST up reply actions

And hey, why not one on scouting too?

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Jan 31, 2011 10:10 PM EST up reply actions

The D's & R's sit on each others laps at the State of the Union Address

and look what happens

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Jan 31, 2011 10:14 PM EST up reply actions

Hey, we're not suggesting that the scouts and the stats guys actually talk to each other

Let’s not get crazy here. And I think there’s something in the Bible that forbids it (somewhere in Deuteronomy, IIRC).

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Jan 31, 2011 11:24 PM EST up reply actions

Crossfire: Hal Bodley vs. Steven Goldman

with the caveat that all assertions must be backed by relevant bible verses, i.e., support for sac bunts is clearly ordained by Exodus 10:25- You must allow us to have SACRIFICES and burnt offerings to present the Lord our God

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Feb 1, 2011 12:41 AM EST up reply actions

which one of those guys is supposed to be the representative of contemporary sabermetrics?

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.

by Matt Klaassen on Feb 1, 2011 9:01 AM EST up reply actions

You are right, too ambiguous....let me correct that:

Matt Klaasen v Ring Lardner…..by the way, scored a handful of jazz vinly, including a used 14 side Smithsonian collection that was used years ago in an intro to Jazz class at the local college, so a variety of examples on there, should be a good jumping off point….somewhat limited by the inventory at the local store, wanted a blend of eras, styles, etc… scored some Dizzy and Charlie Parker (no ornette, no sun ra, no ayler)…..whats your take on roland kirk? Looks like I’ll have to troll the internet to get some of your rec’s via vinyl….which I look forward to doing. Its either that or hungarian porn.

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Feb 1, 2011 1:28 PM EST up reply actions

Weird OT Question for Nighthawk

Have you gotten to see Tom Waits live?

Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity

by Old Man Duggan on Feb 1, 2011 6:55 PM EST up reply actions

I was lucky enough to get over to St Louis and see him at the Fox Theater a couple of years ago

how about you?

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Feb 1, 2011 9:51 PM EST up reply actions

yeah, but if the point of the "next James/Neyer" is to appeal to the mainstream

a niche show (while a good idea) is probaby not going to move the needle much.

Maybe what MLB Network should do is create the sabermetric leaning show (or maybe as suggested above, a stats and scouts show), and then use at least one person from that show as the sabermetric analyst who pops up on MLB’s studio shows and in-game cutaways.

Before Peter Gammons, ESPN and the other networks really did not include much “inside baseball” analysis. ESPN then had incredible success bringing in Gammons to do his short “Diamond Notes” segments and then sit at the end of the Baseball Tonight desk. I think that is the model that could work.

And like Nixon to China, it might take someone from the industry like a former player (Brian Bannister has that potential) or a former assistant GM to be that guy.

by Gopherballs on Feb 1, 2011 1:11 PM EST up reply actions

I Think You're

Onto something with Banny. He’s young, articulate, and he played the game so he has cred with the old school guys, too, not to mention growing up in a MLB household. God knows he’ll be looking for a gig soon enough.

I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.

by philofthenorth on Feb 1, 2011 5:01 PM EST up reply actions

If he wanted to, I think he could pitch for a long time in Japan

But after that, he’ll need a job. I do think he’d do a good job in the TV-analyst-who-understands-advanced-stats role. But I also think he’d make a terrific pitching coach or maybe even manager.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Feb 1, 2011 5:08 PM EST up reply actions

Yeah,

Unfortunately for the future of sabermetrics being spead to the mainstream, I think Bannister ends up working in baseball, not TV.

Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity

by Old Man Duggan on Feb 1, 2011 6:57 PM EST up reply actions

Or his photo studio

http://www.loft19.com/

by AxDxMx on Feb 1, 2011 8:18 PM EST up reply actions

Maybe Aaron Gleeman?

He’s young and talented.

"Crimes don't pay no one but the lawyers." --Last words of executed murderer Ernest Gaither Jr., 1947

by Juancho on Feb 1, 2011 6:01 PM EST reply actions

Joe Posnanski

He’s not particularly young, but I think he has the platform and following to be able to parse it out to the masses. He is inarguably one of the best writers in sports, and I know he is at least partially responsible for getting me into Advanced Stats. I know he isn’t doing a lot of original statistical work (certainly nothing that would catch on), but especially now that he is writing for SI, I think it isn’t long before he is an even more prominent voice for SABR in the MSM.

Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity

by Old Man Duggan on Feb 1, 2011 7:01 PM EST reply actions

Obviously,

this selection may not be addressing the question at hand, which seems to be begging for some up-and-comer as the answer, but if we’re talking about a time-line/evolution scenario, then age doesn’t need to really play into it.

Hating life as a Royals fan 365 days a year at Royalscentricity

by Old Man Duggan on Feb 1, 2011 7:04 PM EST up reply actions

Agreed, it doesn't have to be someone young.

Just someone who will move (or is moving) a lot of people toward sabermetric thinking.

WTF, self?

by minda33 on Feb 1, 2011 10:01 PM EST up reply actions

I’m not sure there actually will be a next Neyer. Sabermetrics in media was in its infancy when Rob started writing for ESPN but nowadays, it’s pretty well-integrated into general analysis both in baseball and in the media. You’ll always have guys that are good at writing that do sabermetrics well, but I think the revolutionary era is behind us.

--
Dan Szymborski
Dan's Stuff is on: BTF, ESPN, Twitter

by D.Szymborski on Feb 2, 2011 1:04 AM EST reply actions

I respectfully disagree...

To people like US, the revolution is behind us. But talk to an average baseball fan on the street. There are millions of them who could still be reached, and to their ears, everything about sabermetrics would be new.

(Or, if you can’t find one on the street, go on any team’s Facebook page…but at the risk of losing all faith in humanity.)

Most people who describe themselves as “baseball fans” still live by the gospels of W/L, ERA, AVG, and – if they want to get all fancy – fielding percentage. Those people still need a Rob Neyer.
(Hell, until my senior year of high school, I was preeeetty much one of “those people.”)

WTF, self?

by minda33 on Feb 2, 2011 1:55 AM EST up reply actions