Don't expect Pavano in the Royals rotation

The pitcher is seeking a three year deal, and I know for a fact that the Royals would not go three years.

Moore went five years on a pitcher who had been merely an ok SP up to that point. So how do you know for a fact that Moore wouldn’t go three years on Pavano?

The Royals are in a great financial situation now. They have so much money free next year, that they can pick and choose internal performers and then add to it. Carl Pavano DOES make a lot of sense on a three year deal, but the payout has to be reasonable.

The Royals can’t justify a big annual hit for a 38 year old starter.

Francis has been pretty underwhelming considering where he was drafted. Sure, he played half his games in Coors Field, but he played ALL of his games in the NL, and yet still managed a very modest K/9. I don’t know that a switch to the AL would help his numbers at all.

Pavano had a very good 2010, but that came off the heels of three or four seasons of baseball in which he was either injured, ineffective, or both. In fact, you can make the argument that Pavano’s 2010 was a bit of mirage — he posted a career low K/9… it’s unlikely his success will carry over to 2011.

He just traded away his best pitcher because he knows they won’t compete over the next 2 years. So why would he sign Pavano to a 3 year deal now, on the off chance that we are competing in the 3rd year? And what’s that say about Pavano? To me it says that no one else would sign him. If he’s 38, as mentioned above, I want no part of this old, injury riddled sack of crap, regardless of his last 2 years of performance. Let’s squeak by this year with our own cheap crap, and spend this money in a year where it might matter.

Kinda like Chen last year. It’s possible to find lightning in a bottle I suppose, but the cost factor is better than signing Pavano to a newer copy of Guillen’s contract assuming that’s what it’d take.

[Not talking about Pavano here, as he won’t come that cheap. But one of the talented injury reclamation projects.] The idea would be basically to spend around $3M to buy a prospect. Certainly not a great prospect, but maybe a Tim Collins type. The Royals are sitting on surplus money. The only questions are whether to hold onto it and save it for later when the team might be contending, or to spend it now. And if the latter, how do you spend it? Even more money spent on the draft and on international FA’s? Definitely. But would it make sense to spend a modest chunk of it on a one-year deal with the intent to trade the player before the deadline to get a prosect?

IMO it only increases his value. Especially if he pitches the way he did two years ago.

for two years.

They are in a one year salary dump mode, and really don’t care how many games they lose this year. I would be apoplectic if they traded Zack and then signed a mediocre pitcher to a $10 million + deal (which is what it would take).

I guess Francis would be a possibility in an incentive laden short term deal, but if I were going to do that with an injured pitcher I would try Duchscherer. Neither one of these guys are secrets though, and if the bidding gets too high the Royals are gone.