Royals Top 60 Prospects: #12-7
Down the stretch we come. We get to players that just about every Royals fan has heard of. The Top 8 or 9 Royals prospects are just about the same on every list--the order differs slightly--but I find those differences really interesting because they show you what the person doing the ranking values.
It's not hard to imagine the players below becoming above average major leaguers. Perhaps even some legitimate All-Star seasons. Sure some of these guys will go down in flames, but every one of the players below would be a top 3 prospect in several organizations.
12. Brett Eibner--CF--DOB:10/2/88
The Royals took Eibner in the 2nd Round of the 2010 draft out of the University of Arkansas. He hit 333/455/718 as Junior. He had a 39/55 BB/K ratio in 216 at bats. He was considered a 1st Round talent as a pitcher and something close to that as a hitter. Most teams preferred him being a pitcher but he really wanted to be a position player. He signed as a CF for $1.2 million. He was hurt so he didn't get in any time in a pro game. He did play at Instructional League and was, from reports, impressive as a potential 5 tool center fielder. From his stats in college, strikeouts could be a problem for him--but he has above average power and should draw some walks. His defense is supposed to be good. His could be a poor man's Grady Sizemore or perhaps Chris Young would be a good comparison. The addition of Lorenzo Cain means the Royals can give Eibner plenty of minor league at bats and not feel the need to rush him. He could start the year at Kane County or Wilmington in 2011.
11. Cheslor Cuthbert--3B--DOB:11/16/92
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | Aff | G | PA | AB | SB | CS | BB | SO | GDP | HBP | SH | SF | IBB | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 17 | 2 Teams | Rk | KCR | 32 | 140 | 128 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 35 | .250 | .314 | .422 | .736 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 2010 | 17 | Royals | Rk | KCR | 18 | 76 | 68 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 | .265 | .342 | .412 | .754 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2010 | 17 | Idaho Falls | Rk | KCR | 14 | 64 | 60 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 16 | .233 | .281 | .433 | .715 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 1 Season | 32 | 140 | 128 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 35 | .250 | .314 | .422 | .736 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | ||||
The Royals signed Cuthbert out of Nicaragua in 2009 for $1.35 million. According to Baseball America, the island he is from off of Nicaragua used to be under U.S. control and he already knows English--which makes the transition easier--especially when he goes to full season ball. His calling card is his bat where he projects to hit for average and power. He put up pretty good numbers at Surprise and Idaho Falls in 2010--especially for being 17. Unfortunately, he got hurt and missed the last month of the year. There have been some questions about his glove when he signed but he showed a good glove during his pro debut. Cuthbert has a big ceiling but a long ways to go to reach it. If he hadn't gotten injured, I would have been pretty confident he start at Kane County. It's more of a question mark now. If he can impress in Spring Training, he might get the full season assignment but he may need some more time in short season ball/stay in extended Spring Training and then go to Kane County.
10. Aaron Crow--RHP--DOB:11/11/86
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | Aff | G | GS | IP | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 23 | 2 Teams | AA-A+ | KCR | 5.73 | 29 | 29 | 163.1 | 1.506 | 10.0 | 1.0 | 3.6 | 7.9 | 2.20 |
| 2010 | 23 | Wilmington | A+ | KCR | 5.93 | 7 | 7 | 44.0 | 1.295 | 10.4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 10.8 | 8.83 |
| 2010 | 23 | Northwest Arkansas | AA | KCR | 5.66 | 22 | 22 | 119.1 | 1.584 | 9.8 | 1.0 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 1.53 |
| 3 Seasons | 5.26 | 33 | 32 | 181.1 | 1.450 | 9.6 | 0.9 | 3.5 | 7.9 | 2.29 | ||||
Aaron Crow was the Royals 1st Round pick in 2009--after being the Nats 1st Round pick in 2008 and not signing. His 2010 was not good--especially the time at Northwest Arkansas. But his FIP at AA was 4.76 which isn't good but it's a heck of a lot better than his actual ERA. He got 63% ground ball rate there which is very good. But his command/control was bad. His FIP at Wilmington was 3.26 and he was able to display much better control. The reports on his stuff were still encouraging. His fastball was still in the low-mid 90s with good movement and he still had the good slider. The change-up is alright but definitely the third pitch in his arsenal. Several places have mentioned he would be an excellent closer candidate--but I hope they continue to give him the chance to start. I think of Crow a little bit like Eric Hosmer's prospect status a year ago--a talented guy who had a bad year--but if you dig around there are still reasons to really like this guy: good stuff and strong ground ball tendencies and could still become a #2 starter. He is a candidate to bounce back in 2011--he'll probably be at AA or AAA and if he pitches well he could see the big league roster during the summer.
9. Christian Colon--2B--DOB:5/14/89
The Royals took Colon with the #4 overall pick in the 2010 draft. He had an outstanding summer 2009 for Team USA before breaking his leg pretty badly. He came back to Long Beach State and it took a little bit for him to hit his stride. He hit 358/447/631 at Long Beach State Cal State Fullerton during his junior season with a 34/18 BB/K ratio. The Royals signed him and sent him to Wilmington. He had a really rough start--something like 0-18. But he gradually improved his offensive numbers as the season went on. Colon projects to hit for average, should draw some walks and some power. The Royals insisted when they drafted Colon, they intended to keep him at SS. However, with the addition of Alcides Escobar, the Royals will probably shift Colon to 2B. He is supposed to be really sound defensively, just not very quick--especially after breaking his leg. He should be above average at 2B. Colon held his own offensively after an aggressive assignment to Wilmington. In 2011, he should flourish offensively and defensively at AA.
8. Jake Odorizzi--RHP--DOB:3/27/90
| Year | Age | Tm | Lev | Aff | G | GS | IP | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 18 | Brewers | Rk | MIL | 3.48 | 11 | 4 | 20.2 | 1.306 | 7.8 | 0.9 | 3.9 | 8.3 | 2.11 |
| 2009 | 19 | Helena | Rk | MIL | 4.40 | 12 | 10 | 47.0 | 1.362 | 10.5 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 8.2 | 4.78 |
| 2010 | 20 | Wisconsin | A | MIL | 3.43 | 23 | 20 | 120.2 | 1.152 | 7.4 | 0.5 | 3.0 | 10.1 | 3.38 |
| 3 Seasons | 3.68 | 46 | 34 | 188.1 | 1.221 | 8.2 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 9.4 | 3.40 | ||||
The player further away from the big leagues in the Greinke trade, Odorizzi has a ceiling as high or higher than any of the other three players the Royals received. The Brewers took Greinke in the Supplement 1st Round of the 2008 draft out of High School in Illinois. He was one of the top HS pitchers in the draft (taken just a few picks before the Royals took Mike Montgomery). Milwaukee waited to put him in full season ball until last year--but he put up really good numbers in his first extended season. He struck out a bunch of guys, had decent control (that got better as the year went on), and was stingy with the longball. Odorizzi features a low-mid 90s fastball with a power breaking ball (there has been some debate as to whether it is a true slider or not). The change-up is alright--improving but not great. He has good command of his pitches. Look for really eye popping numbers at Wilmington in2011--and I think he will zoom up prospects charts over the coming year. In fact, if he does well at High A, I could see him moving to AA pretty quickly--if there is room for him in that rotation.
7. Dan Duffy--LHP--DOB:12/21/88
| Year | Age | Tm | Lg | Lev | Aff | G | GS | IP | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 18 | Royals | ARIZ | Rk | KCR | 1.45 | 11 | 9 | 37.1 | 1.098 | 5.8 | 0.0 | 4.1 | 15.2 | 3.71 |
| 2008 | 19 | Burlington | MIDW | A | KCR | 2.20 | 17 | 17 | 81.2 | 0.992 | 6.2 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 11.2 | 4.08 |
| 2009 | 20 | Wilmington | CARL | A+ | KCR | 2.98 | 24 | 24 | 126.2 | 1.176 | 7.7 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 8.9 | 3.05 |
| 2010 | 21 | 4 Teams | 4 Lgs | AA-A+-Rk | KCR | 2.74 | 14 | 14 | 62.1 | 1.107 | 7.5 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 10.0 | 4.06 |
| 2010 | 21 | Royals | ARIZ | Rk | KCR | 3.38 | 2 | 2 | 2.2 | 1.125 | 6.8 | 0.0 | 3.4 | 13.5 | 4.00 |
| 2010 | 21 | Idaho Falls | PION | Rk | KCR | 1.50 | 2 | 2 | 6.0 | 0.667 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | |
| 2010 | 21 | Wilmington | CARL | A+ | KCR | 2.57 | 3 | 3 | 14.0 | 1.071 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 4.5 | 11.6 | 2.57 |
| 2010 | 21 | Northwest Arkansas | TL | AA | KCR | 2.95 | 7 | 7 | 39.2 | 1.185 | 8.6 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 9.3 | 4.56 |
| 4 Seasons | 2.54 | 66 | 64 | 308.0 | 1.104 | 7.0 | 0.4 | 2.9 | 10.5 | 3.59 | |||||
It is hard to remember now, but in about mid-April the Royals farm system looked like it might be in for a long season. Mike Moustakas was coming off a bad 2009 and was hurt and Dan Duffy had walked away from baseball--and it didn't sound like he was coming back. Thankfully he returned and with a bonus--an uptick in velocity. Duffy has been successful from the moment he started playing pro ball. The highest ERA he's had at any given stop was the 3.38 he posted 2 2/3 IP for the Surprise Royals last year. His numbers almost always consist of lots of Ks/low walk rate/low HR rate. He was considered a good prospect but his stuff was not considered 'ace material'. But last year, he was working low-mid 90s from the left side with good movement. His curve can be a plus pitch but it is still inconsistent. His changeup is average to above average. He has become a little divisive to evaluators. Some folks see a pitcher with ace potential while others still see him as a decent #3. He also pitched in the Arizona Fall League where his numbers were, for the first time, not good: ERA over 8 in 15 IP--but that league is notorious for being a hitters' league. Duffy could go back to AA, advance to AAA, or he could win a Major League job in Spring Training. I'm not sure if the Royals will try to limit his innings increase from last year to this year--that will be something to keep an eye on.
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Eibner
I am really interested in seeing how Eibner progresses this year and if he can move up on the last being an older player. Wilmington roster will be fun to keep tabs on this summer.
Just wanted to say great work as always
I thought about making some jokes in fun, but some people would rather hear wisecracks about war orphans than the Royals’ farm system.
Seems to me that while people generally think Duffy will be a major leaguer, there is a pretty wide variety of opinions on his ceiling. Is that fair, or am I just mixing up earlier and later reports? I seem to remember Keith Law expressing some concerns in a column this season (in which he also gave high praise on Montgomery).
Also wonder how many people who insisted Colon could stick at short mysteriously changed their minds after Escobar came aboard (man, if you’d told me a year ago we’d be getting Escobar…).
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Duffy
Frankie Pillierre and John Sickels were both really high on Duffy while Law and Goldstein think he’s a decent prospect who can be a #3.
I think his jump in velocity has divided some people—some who think its real—some who think he can’t sustain that over a full season. Also, some of the folks high on Duffy—project him to get better command of his stuff—if he does that, he gets a lot better—but that is true for every pitching prospect. I see Duffy as a solid #3—-maybe a #2 if things break right.
man, given our starting line-up of pitchers
we could use a #1, #2, or #3 pitcher
"Things could always be worse." - Buddy Bell
Not sure folks are changing their minds about colon
He could stick as a below average SS, but what’s the point when you have a good/very good SS in the system ahead of him. If the middle infield plan comes to fruition, this will be an impressive job by Moore of turning two weaknesses into two strengths.
by billexgordler on Jan 6, 2011 11:10 AM EST up reply actions
fair enough
although I assume you simply mean that Escobar’s glove is likely to be a “strength.” Yes, he’s probably a good shortstop in the continuum of Royals history, but I’m not ready to call actually having a decent player at a position a “strength.”
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 6, 2011 11:15 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Agreed.
Glad I came, just wish I hadn't stayed so long.
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What is your opinion of Escobar?
Feel free to answer in any way you wish, but what do you think the odds are that he becomes a 2+ WAR MLB player? I know this requires a lot of speculation based on minor league stats, scouting reports and little MLB data, but I’d be interested in hearing your thoughts.
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by Scott McKinney on Jan 6, 2011 12:48 PM EST up reply actions
I guess I was in KS not w/ access at the time of the trade
all things considered, probably a good thing…
Like I said, I think Escobar is probably a decent player. I think it’s pretty likely he’s a 2+ win player. He obviously had a a great deal of bad luck on balls in play this past season, and he was a top prospect only a season ago (if you’d told be before last season that we’d be getting Escobar as part of this trade, I’’d have been pumped). It’s a small sample of defensive stats that show him to be merely average-ish with the glove, and with the usual qualifications combined with very positive fan scouting reports I’m not too concerned yet.
On the other hand, we aren’t talking about a a guy who was a league average hitter with bad luck on BABIP, or a .300 wOBA hitter with bad luck, but .270. That’s worse than Yuni’s (2009) or Kendall’s (2007), although those were in more favorable offensive seasons. That’s just to point out how awful it really was. So yeah, even with better BABIP luck (and BABIP analysis is complicated by the fact that, for example, a Alcides Escobar line drive thrown into the same “bucket” as a Ryan Howard line drive, among other things). So I think it’s fair to say that he’s a bad hitter at best. ZiPS and Bill James (~!) both have hin at around a .305 wOBA (about -/8700 in 2010’s run environment) in Milwaukee for 2011, and that assumes he’ll return to his stealing ways of the minor league days.
For what it’s worth, My simple projection is less optimistic (.290 wOBA in MIL), but really only in terms of steals numbers (no minors) — they all see him as pretty terrible at the plate. Basically, his only skill is hitting singles. He doesn’t have a good walk rate or power. Kauffman might help him more than Miller Park since it’s more favorable to balls in play, so that’s a good thing. On the other hand, he’ll be moving to the AL so he won’t get to face Pirates’ pitching 19 times a season (and won’t even get the luxury of facing the Royals 2011 staff).
All thing’s considered, I think he’s probably at least a 2 WAR player if ZiPS is right about his bat, and if his glove lives up to its reputation, he could be more valuable than that. Now, teams aren’t perfect in their judgments of their own players (as we should know here), of course, but something soured Milwaukee on him pretty quickly. They obviously don’t think he’s a 3 win player, or they would have demanded Greinke for Escobar straight up (and maybe shouldn’t even have done that). Not saying they’re right, but there is that. Here’s hoping they were wrong. And that he starts to run a bit more.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 6, 2011 11:19 PM EST up reply actions
Reading the line about Milwaukee souring on him quickly reminded me of one thing.
We may now be into the age of acquiring failed Brewers prospects that Ned Yost liked during his time there.
So the former Braves will be over and now it will all former Brewers?
Interesting.
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If they traded him for Greinke, does that mean they soured on him?
When you trade for a big piece of talent, you have to trade away talent. You can’t just give away only the guys you’ve soured on. Now, they may have soured on him. They may have come to the opinion that he stinks. But I don’t think we can jump to that conclusion merely by the fact that they included him in a trade for one of the best pitchers in baseball.
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by Scott McKinney on Jan 7, 2011 2:45 PM EST up reply actions
And they all of the sudden decide he stinks?
They’ve watched him play since he was 16 when they signed him, trade JJ Hardy to give him the starting gig and now after his rookie season decided he now stinks. Seems unlikely
Checkout Royals minor league notes at www.14for77.blogspot.com
I can see a little on both sides of this.
Maybe they saw the exact same approach at the plate and have been coaching against it all the way through the minors because it wouldn’t work against MLB pitching?
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That is one of many possibilities
They may have soured on him based on his 2010 season. They may have never thought he was a great prospect. Or they may still like him, but they wanted Greinke more. My point is simply that we have no idea. There mere fact that they traded him doesn’t tell us anything about how they feel about Escobar, Cain, Odorizzi or Jeffress. It is clear that they’d rather have Greinke than those guys, but does that mean they have a low opinion of the talent they gave up?
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by Scott McKinney on Jan 8, 2011 8:36 AM EST up reply actions
You're right, but at the same time, if they valued Escobar greatly, they would not have traded him.
The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle so he was expendable for a short term run.
I think "soured" is the new "incompetent"
in that we’re taking it to mean two different things. I don’t mean that the Brewers think he’s worthless, just that there are indications that they are much less enamored with him than one might have thought originally.
By the way, there is one piece of non-inferential evidence for this “souring” (or wahtever you want to call of it), as in his analysis of the trade Keith Law noted that Escobar had worn out his welcome in the Milwaukee for a variety of reasons.
Obviously one has to give up talent to get talent. I never said Escobar was worthless, or that the Brewers think so. But I think we can infer from the trade that they aren’t as high on him as they used to be. A year ago he was a “five star” prospect, and the Brewers were moving guys (like J. J. Hardy, who managed 2 WAR seasons when he’s hurt and he had disaster seasons [for him, Hardy has never had a full season close to as bad as Escobar’s 2010) who to make room for him, so the notion that they never valued him all that highly isn’t one I subscribe to. When I hear “five star” I don’t think of a ~ 2 win player. He was supposed to have a monster glove and an average-ish bat. IN other words, he was supposed to be a 3+ win player.
Now, I agree that Greinke’s one of the best pitchers in baseball, but if he’s a 5-6 win pitcher, then he’s worth ~3 wins over his contract… or what Escobar was supposed to be worth under team control for 6 years. Maybe more, but my point is that the Escobar of a year ago doesn’t seem like he would have been one piece (albeit one of the bigger ones) in the trade like he was, but rather the main one. IF they still viewed him as the guy they were moving people around for and that every prospect watcher was expecting, assuming the Brewers aren’t totally stupid, they wouldn’t have included Jeffress, Cain, AND Odrizzi, but rather either Jeffress OR Cain, or, at most, both of those guys. Certainly not all three. It wouldn’t have been worth it. IF they think Escobar is still a 3+ win guy, they’d be crazy to do that trade, especially when, unlike last season, they have no real replacement other than Craig Counsel (still a decent player but they can’t expect him to play every day without serious struggles) and Yuni (insert joke here). If they thought Escobar was still the stud everyone though the would be, they could have kept Escobar + the other guys and used they money they wouldn’t be giving to Zach on a lesser pitcher (like de la Rosa or Pavano or some other area of the team) and had as many projected wins in 2011 without seriously compromising their future.
That’s probably not real coherent, but this discussion of a minor side point in my thoughts on Escobar isn’t worth pursuing at length, especially since I’m not dealing with the issue of whether or not Milwaukee was right about Escobar or not. It’s simply clear to me from what we can infer from the trade (as well as what Law reported) that rightly or wrongly, the Brewers don’t see Esobar the same way they used to.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 8, 2011 12:41 PM EST up reply actions
It’s simply clear to me from what we can infer from the trade (as well as what Law reported) that rightly or wrongly, the Brewers don’t see Esobar the same way they used to.
Perhaps so. Although I think the best evidence that they think less of him now is how he performed in 2010. And, of course, everybody’s opinion of him took a hit from that data point. I do think it is safe to say that they don’t see him as a future star. How much the trade tells us about what they think of Escobar is debatable and, as you said, not worth a lengthy debate.
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by Scott McKinney on Jan 8, 2011 1:41 PM EST up reply actions
I wasn't clear:
I was being very specific. That the 2012 middle infield defense of gio and colon was a weakness while the 2012 middle infield defense of Escobar and colon is a strength. Total value is another question. But it’ll be a nifty little trick that moore pulled off if it turns out that the 2013 royals have a great defensive middle.
by billexgordler on Jan 6, 2011 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
Colon was at Fullerton, not LBSU
Glad to see Odorizzi so high.
that's what Jeremy Jeffress said
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 6, 2011 10:29 AM EST up reply actions 9 recs
I'm very happy that Jeffress's inclusion on the 40-man roster now means that he can toke in peace
Just don’t forget to pass the dutch, Jeremy.
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by Scott McKinney on Jan 6, 2011 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
I'm just glad we got rid of a bad kid like Dan Cortes
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 6, 2011 5:26 PM EST up reply actions
Is there any difference between them?
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by Scott McKinney on Jan 6, 2011 12:49 PM EST up reply actions
32 minutes
40 minutes in traffic.
Stats, any stats, are nothing more than a way of framing data so that you can examine the data more narrowly in order to reach a conclusion. They’re not the final word on anything. - jonfmorse
The difference between
Crow’s ERA and FIP at Wilmington is insane. How bad is the defense of our prospects at that level? Does this have anything to do with the expectation that Wil Myers won’t stay at C?
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how dare you
Seriously though, whlie I"m glad Eric Hosmer is supposed to be good at first base, when the organization gives its minor league defensive player of the year award (I think I read this somewhere) to a first baseman, you have to wonder a bit.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 6, 2011 10:40 AM EST up reply actions
Well when you're trying to drum up support for your big name minor leaguers
You probably don’t give the best defensive award to players that are average/below average at their position (Moose, Colon, Myers). I’m sure that they could have given the award to someone that is better defensively (DRob? Orlando?), but Hosmer is probably the only choice for “name” guys.
I blame the field
Fire the Wilmington grounds crew!
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by Scott McKinney on Jan 6, 2011 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
With a 63% ground ball rate, The NWA D must not have been very good.
TZ is available with Oliver, let me see what it as the NWA infield rated at.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 6, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
Here are the NWA TZ numbers for the key defenders. The right side bad, left side was OK
Hosmer = -1.4
Clint Robinson = -5.7
Giavotella = -2.7
Seratell = -2.3
McConnell = +6.5
Moose = +1.7
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 6, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions
Are those numbers baselined against NWA's league average?
if so, then I don’t think they are very useful.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 6, 2011 11:16 AM EST up reply actions
I am not for sure, but I would guess so. I would have to ask Brian C.
I think they are useful in this case since FIP/ERA are adjusted for the league, why should TZ be also?
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Jan 6, 2011 11:24 AM EST up reply actions
I mean that the +/- isn't that helpful
since (leaving aside the usual qualifications about defensive metrics) on the minor league level, a lot of guys are playing positions that they can’t/won’t/wouldn’t play in the majors, are learning new positions for the first time, or are simply filler at positions. So the league average baseline isn’t going to really tell you much about how good they are compared to major league fielders. I know Rally did some MLE stuff for TZ a few years ago, so maybe these are what they are. A simple “rate” type zone rating stat might tell us something, too. But just plus/minus plays made above or below league average doesn’t tell us a whole lot.
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by Matt Klaassen on Jan 6, 2011 11:31 AM EST up reply actions
It looks to me...
…like that FIP in Wilmington is mostly the result of his 53/6 K/BB ratio, and the ERA is the result of a .388 BABIP. That might implicate some issues with the defense, but you should keep in mind that we’re looking at just 44 IP at that level, so sample size warnings are clearly applicable.
by kcemigre on Jan 6, 2011 11:05 AM EST up reply actions 2 recs
I thought Cuthbert would come in lower.
Definitely in the top 20, but no higher than 14. I guess I kind of view him the same way I do Yambati and Ventura. Good upside, but still quite a few years off.
I have no idea who is in your top 6.
The only real question is who is your #1?
Great stuff
Eibner will be a guy I’ll be keeping a close eye on. I wasn’t real high on him when we drafted him, but most of the scouting reports have been pretty good. It will be nice to see some pro data on him.
I love Cheslor. I love saying the name Cheslor. But he looks like a man among boys. I think we’ll eventually see him in RF though.
Colon I predict will be a fan favorite when he gets up here.
Minor nitpick, but in the Odorizzi entry, you say Greinke was drafted in 2008, when I think you mean Odorizzi.
Great list as always.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
I'm not sure if I like saying Cheslor or Cuthbert more
Someone start a poll
I can't wait for the day the Adcock and COlon are on the field at the same time.
The prophecy has been fulfilled.
by mitchfreakingmaier! on Jan 6, 2011 11:48 AM EST up reply actions 3 recs
The posts will write themselves. And I for one will enjoy the break from working so hard on this site to churn out witty bonmots.
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by Scott McKinney on Jan 6, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
Great job!
I’m really excited about Cuthbert, too. I would rank him in my top 10 simply based on the fact that he performed well for his age last season. I’d love to see him in a full season league next this year
Isn’t Crow already on the 40-man roster? Maybe I’m thinking of someone else, but I thought he signed a Major League deal.
Why do you think the broken leg for Colon caused him to lose quickness? He was still young and could’ve realistically regained all his agility and quickness thru rehab. I guess it’s all moot, though — Escobar reigns.
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by CollininCalifornia on Jan 6, 2011 12:08 PM EST reply actions
Make that into a haiku and I'll treat it seriously.
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by Scott McKinney on Jan 6, 2011 12:52 PM EST up reply actions
...
Make that into a
haiku and I will treat it
seriously, Will.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haiku
so much I didn’t know about haiku
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 6, 2011 2:29 PM EST up reply actions
Elisha Cuthbert?
I like her too. But this Cheslor is a really good ball player.
Good lists! This farm system is just nasty. And I have a feeling we will see 2-3 more high ceiling guys drafted come June. We need to keep seeing a heavy flow of young and older players coming thru this system.
Eibner is still a big mystery to me. I hope he gets the shot in Kane County, and shoots up the minors.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 6, 2011 1:09 PM EST reply actions
Why?
Not a high ceiling? I didn’t love the pick, but it didn’t appear that a lot of high ceiling guys remained on the board. I would imagine that the Royals picked him because 1) liked his talent, 2) org is very short on OF prospets, and 3) as an older, more advanced and polished player, he might get to the majors sooner and be able to help the current crop of top prospects build a winner. Now I’m not saying all of these are the best reasons to pick a guy like Eibner, but they are at least understandable and reasonable.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 6, 2011 1:58 PM EST up reply actions
This was my worry at the time of the pick
as an older, more advanced and polished player, he might get to the majors sooner and be able to help the current crop of top prospects build a winner.
that they’d sacrificed upside for “timing”. But like Retro said above, I’ve warmed to the Eibner pick after scouts have generally given him good marks.
The old “Best Player Available” vs “Drafting For Need” stumble that ruins many an NFL draft choice.
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 6, 2011 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
I think this is more "Drafting For Need Of Keeping Job"
But I like Eibner alright from what I’ve read
maybe it's just me.....
but eibner seems to have a pretty high ceiling for a 2nd round pick. He hits for power, plays good defense in CF and has decent plate discipline. What am I missing? This is nothing like the Giavotella low upside 2nd round pick
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Jan 6, 2011 4:22 PM EST up reply actions
Agree that it's not like Gia
But from what I read about him at the time, he didn’t appear to me to be a high upside position player. I was going by the evaluations of others and hopefully they were wrong.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 6, 2011 6:11 PM EST up reply actions
I think the upside is awfully, awfully high.
Plus power RH bats who play a good CF (or a very, very good RF) are a rarity. He was on the short list for the White Sox with their first rounder. The full extent of the upside is also a bit unknown because he could really turn it on now that he’s focusing on hitting instead of pitching.
I thought Eibner
Was a guy most teams didn’t think would sign, but the Royals were willing to pay that man his money.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
You're both right
Teams weren’t willing to pay the high price for a guy who didn’t want to do what they thought was best for him (pitch).
The whole problem with the world is that fools & fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts. ~ Bertrand Russell
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Jan 14, 2011 12:30 PM EST up reply actions
Agreed
It was strange that most teams saw him as a pitcher but the royals wanted him as a hitter. I can’t shake the feeling that the org is only letting him hit because that’s his preference and that they’ll switch him back if he doesn’t develop quickly as a hitter. Which seems like a very bad idea indeed. I have zero evidence backing up this impression and the more I hear about his skills as a power bat and fielding ability the less concerned I am. But I’m going to be very bummed if the org jerks Eibner around against his wishes if he has trouble adjusting at the plate.
by billexgordler on Jan 6, 2011 2:55 PM EST up reply actions
Eibner was basically consensus first round talent on the mound or in the outfield. And you don’t understand why we took him in the second round.
jeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeez.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
This is very exciting...
Guys who know a LOT more about this stuff than I are endorsing the pick and the player. My impressions were only impressions. And uneducated ones at that. I could probably pick Eibner out of a lineup today but I certainly couldn’t have last May.
I would only say that these were my impressions at the time of the draft and I was more inclined to doubt Moore’s drafting abilities in early June ‘10 than I am today and so drafting a two-way player at the position that most orgs believed was his second best position seemed like a weird choice. Further if we’re drafting him as a hitter, then his ceiling as a pitcher is irrelevant. All that matters is his ceiling/likelihood to reach that ceiling as a hitter. And it seemed like discussion of his future as a hitter got covered up by discussion that most teams preferred him as a pitcher. Which makes it weird.
I’m getting an Eibner shirsey. He’s my guy.
by billexgordler on Jan 7, 2011 7:04 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Sox seemed indifferent as to which way he went if they drafted him. Kenny Williams said he’d like the see Eibner continue to play both ways.
The RH power and fielding are very nice. Contact is the foreseeable problem, I believe. Still, I don’t understand how one could classify this as a low upside pick. Perhaps not as high of an upside as a potential ace HS arm, but Eibner was an easy pick, IMO. He has Rasmus-size upside.
by WURoyal on Jan 7, 2011 10:30 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Cuthbert is intriguing
Seems to be typical Latin player (swings at every thing); however, posting slugging percentages over 400 at age 17 is damn impressive. I don’t think we can underestimate how far ahead of the typical prospect he might be, considering if he were a high school player, he would not be graduating until this spring, and thus might not even get any minor league ABs until 2012. Instead, he will go in to 2012 with 2 seasons of minor league experience.
A long way away for sure – but very, very intriguing prospect. If he makes reasonable progress, he could be one of the rare players who reaches the big leagues by age 21. Those types can typically be expected to have a larger chance at greatness.
"We're gonna win with pitching and defense" General Manager Dayton Moore, circa winter 2009
"Where did all these Indians come from?" General George Armstrong Custer, circa summer 1876
I think most agree that he has a high ceiling
But it’s a long ways to go. So many things can happen between now and then.
also reports of him having a good feel for playing 3b
sounds athletic enough to play any corner spot. very interesting guy to watch at lower levels next season.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
Strangely...
Cuthbert’s quickly becoming a critical prospect. I’m not optimistic about Antonio, so cuthbert’s the sole second wave big bat in the organization. He’ll be 23 when butler’s gone or (fingers crossed) his extension’s about to end and moose and hos are facing free agency. Obviously I’m getting WAY ahead of myself, but I hope that the organization focuses on young, high-ceiling bats this summer both in the draft and in Latin American signings. Based on pitcher development curves and the sheer number of potential major league arms in the organization, I’m less worried about pitching in the out years (2015-2017 okay yes this is ridiculous…) so I’d love to see the org focus on young bats this summer.
by billexgordler on Jan 6, 2011 2:45 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
i am interested to see how Caxito and Arteaga do next summer. two very athletic high upside guys.
Schaum and Ben Badler also really like Jorge Bonifacio, athletic CF and brother of Emilio who plays for the Marlins.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
are Calixto and Arteaga
potential middle of the order guys? what about Bonifacio?
by billexgordler on Jan 7, 2011 12:03 AM EST up reply actions
perhaps i wasn't so clear
Caxito and Arteaga are SS’s, not big dudes so probably not middle of the order. Bonifacio is a bigger athlete (CF), but beyond that i don’t know much about him beyond that.
so i do agree that beyond Cuthbert there isn’t that many “big bats,” but there are some pretty intriguing players. and as you mentioned it so far down the road that who knows what is going to happen.
R.I.P. cwhitman412, Frederick0220, & Mets2k9
http://twitter.com/doublestix
Duffy
From a non-scout’s view I don’t see how he’s not the head of the class of the royals pitching prospects. Between lamb’s late-season struggles, Monty’s elbow and fall league wobbles, and Dwyer’s command, Duffy seems like the surest thing of the group to be at least a mid-rotation guy. his results are just shy of spectacular. He doesn’t give up home runs, his k/bb is excellent, and if his radar readings from last summer stick, his velocity is top notch for a lefty.
I guess I agree with what the org is saying, that duffy’s the closest to the majors, and that proximity advantage combined with an upside that to a non-scout looks pretty close to the other three means to me that he’s the top gun.
I agree
There are about as many orders to the top 7-12 prospects as there are prospects lists. I mean every single blogger/scout/person has a different opinion about upside compared to major league readiness. I have seen Duffy, Dwyer, Lamb, and Montgomery listed in 12 different orders. I would really like to see all of them in KC by the start of 2012, so that we can really see which one is the best. Along with Odorizzi by the end of 2012.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Jan 6, 2011 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
That's incredibly optimistic re: Odorizzi
He’ll likely spend all of 2011 at Wilmington and all of 2012 at NWA, which is probably how it should be. I wouldn’t expect to see him on the hill at Kauffman until early 2013 at the absolute earliest, probably more like mid/late 2013.
I'll be interested to see where some of these guys start the season
1. Will Colon begin at SS or 2B for Naturals? If 2B, does Bianchi start at SS for NWA?
2. Eibner – Kane County or Wilmington. CF or RF?
3. Crow – Rotation at NWA but bullpen if he struggle in first half of 2011?
4. Cuthbert – Ex. ST or Kane County. He was with Idaho Falls at end of 2010
5. Duff man – Omaha or KC. I think he will be one of the first (if not the first) rookie pitcher to make the Royals. Coleman or Collins would be my other predictions.
Keep Duffy in AAA
First, because if anyone in the system should be treated with kid gloves at the moment, it is him (or possibly Mike Montgomery because of his arm). And secondly, there’s no point in starting his service time clock before June, especially if we’re just going to be punting on 2011. Even a pitcher as talented as Duffy should benefit from some time in Omaha.
Skipping AAA Is
The new market inefficiency
I used to be an A's fan until they left town and got good.
by philofthenorth on Jan 6, 2011 6:29 PM EST up reply actions
Cuthbert's from somewhere really weird
He’s likely to be from the Nicaraguan east coast, which used to be a British possession called the Mosquito Coast (great PR naming move, guys). All the Spanish-speaking Nicaraguans live on the west coast and the mountains. Moving to the east, there’s a jungle with some primitive Indians, and on the east coast the population is English-speaking blacks, brought in as contract labor for sugar plantations and the like.
"Crimes don't pay no one but the lawyers." --Last words of executed murderer Ernest Gaither Jr., 1947
I found an article which said that he was from Big Corn Island
Which is off Nicaragua’s east coast.
The immoderate moderator
by Scott McKinney on Jan 8, 2011 1:47 PM EST up reply actions
Interesting
Along with English-speaking suburban-raised Joakim Soria, I guess the Royals think English-speaking Latin American players are the new market inefficiency?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

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