Royals Starting Pitcher Target: Chad Billingsley
by Jeff Zimmerman on Oct 11, 2011 10:40 AM EDT
in Kansas City Royals Minor Leagues
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PrintName: Chad Billingsley is a 27 year old RHP with the Dodgers
Contract: 3 year/$35M (2012: $9M, 2013: $11M, 2014: $12M) with a club option for 2015 for $14M with a $3M buyout
Pitches:
Fastball: Used around 50% to 60% of the time. Average 91.5 MPH. It has been consistently at this speed since 2006.
Cutter: Used around 20 to 25% of the time. Averages 88MPH. In 2008 is when he used the cutter at this percentage.
Curve: Used around 15% to 20% of the time. Averages 76 MPH.
Change-up: Used around 5% of the time. Average 85 MPH.
Here is a link to a nice interview with him on pitch sequencing (Part I and Part II).
Results:
| Year | GS | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | GB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | WAR |
| 2006 | 16 | 90.0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 0.7 | 48% | 3.80 | 4.88 | 5.43 | 0.6 |
| 2007 | 20 | 147.0 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 41% | 3.31 | 4.02 | 4.02 | 2.0 |
| 2008 | 32 | 200.2 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 0.6 | 49% | 3.14 | 3.35 | 3.58 | 4.4 |
| 2009 | 32 | 196.1 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 0.8 | 45% | 4.03 | 3.82 | 3.99 | 3.1 |
| 2010 | 31 | 191.2 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.4 | 50% | 3.57 | 3.07 | 3.67 | 4.5 |
| 2011 | 32 | 188.0 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 0.7 | 45% | 4.21 | 3.83 | 4.14 | 2.1 |
| Career | 163 | 1013.2 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 0.7 | 47% | 3.68 | 3.71 | 4.01 | 16.8 |
First, the 4 year decline in K/9 worries me. The walk rate scares me. His career K/9, BB/9 and GB% are similar to Felipe Paulino's values:
8.3 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 44% GB%
He looks to be a 3 WAR (or less) pitcher for the length of his current contract.
Injury History:
Sept 2006: Strained Left Oblique Muscle - missed 13 games
August 2009: Hamstring - missed 9 games
June 2010: Groin - missed 12 games
August 2010: Calf - missed 5 games.
Generally, he is injury free with no elbow or shoulder problems in the past.
Conclusions:
Chad's ability and contract seem to fit in with the move to improve the Royals' pitching. He could be a #1 or #2 starter if he is able to get his walk rate under control.
As is the case with any trade, the key would be what would the Dodger's want in return. I could see moving just about anyone. Trade Monty straight up. I would do that. Monty and Holland. Again yes. Myers. I would not, but that is me. I think his up side is too much and we would be selling low.
Well, that is it for Chad. What are your thoughts? Also, let me know which pitcher you would like looked at next.
Other Royal Starting Pitching Targets:
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Comments
Seems like...
Monty straight up would be a lot to take on a break even (at best) proposition. Seems like if we were going to do this, I’d rather have taken a shot at Ubaldo or I’d rather go all the way and deal for King Felix. This seems like “win now” at its worst.
I’d hope a Billingsley deal would involve the lesser prospects like Dwyer or Odorizzi (at best).
Odorizzi
The Royals should not trade Odorizzi, at this time. Unless they’re getting a legit #1 starter in return. >James Shields, etc, I’ll think about it, otherwise, no chance
With two reasonable-to-favorable club options
by Sweep_the_Leg on Oct 13, 2011 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Actually, all THREE years remaining on his deal are club options
12:$7M club option ($2M buyout)
13:$9M club option ($1.5M buyout)
14:$12M club option ($1M buyout)
by Sweep_the_Leg on Oct 13, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Is there a consensus that Myers is a more valuable prospect than Monty?
I think I’d disagree on that point.
I would take a top 20 hitter over a top 20 pitcher any day.
Monty could blow his arm out any day. Historcially, Myers will end up being 50% 100% more valuable than Monty:
http://www.royalsreview.com/2011/2/14/1992424/success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Oct 11, 2011 11:08 AM EDT up reply actions
There's no chance that Myers is a top 20 hitter right now
Monty isn’t a top 20 pitcher either, but I like him better as a prospect. He’s supposed to have ace-caliber stuff, and while walks hurt him this year, that’s a new problem and has a chance to be fixed just as quickly as it appeared.
They are both top 50
With Myers probably ranked higher. So the point still stands. The position player prospect has a considerably higher success rate.
He’s supposed to have ace-caliber stuff, and while walks hurt him this year, that’s a new problem and has a chance to be fixed just as quickly as it appeared.
Could be, but I wouldn’t be so quick to dismiss his control problems as a fluke. The control problems showed up when he got called up to higher minor league levels. Suddenly he started getting hit a lot more, which led to control problems (either because he was afraid to throw strikes because his great stuff was hittable, or because he was overthrowing to try to get balls past hitters, because his usual stuff was hittable). So I don’t know that we can assume that his control problems are likely to just disappear. They may well. But there are reasons that most pitching prospects fail. This kind of thing is one of them. We shouldn’t just expect problems a pitcher is having to go away.
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by Scott McKinney on Oct 11, 2011 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Again, I'm not convinced that the pitcher vs hitter value discrepancy in BA's lists still exists to the degree that it did
BA could (and should) correct how they value pitchers to incorporate greater injury/failure risk for pitchers. Also, teams may do a better job maintaining the health of their young pitchers.
It might happen that the trends you found in your study will continue into the more recent BA Top 100 lists. But a new trend could also emerge.
Have you heard anything from BA about how they’ve changed their analysis, evaluation or ranking of pitchers?
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by Scott McKinney on Oct 11, 2011 11:30 AM EDT up reply actions
Why do you think Myers isn't a top 20 hitter right now?
At least according to Baseball America. His midseason ranking as #17. And then in July and August he hit very well. Is there any chance he’s not top 20 come February?
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by Scott McKinney on Oct 11, 2011 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Myers
Moved up to AA, and was one of the youngest(20YO) players in the Texas League. He underwent a position change and had some injury problems. You really didn’t expect him to put up Moustakas like numbers last year did you(rhetorical Q). If we just went on last years performance. Montgomery would have almost no chance of ever getting to the big leagues, and Myers chances would be slim. Fortunately we know the talent is there.
I don't know what the consensus is
I have a strong feeling that Myers will be ranked higher, at least by BA. And then there’s the issue of prospect failure rates for position players as opposed to pitchers. I like the odds for a top position player prospect over a similarly ranked pitching prospect. Myers would be the prospect I’d least like to trade.
And I’m concerned about Montgomery. I don’t like it when prospect evaluators gush about a prospect’s tools but his results don’t match up with that praise. Monty was great in A-ball. So far in AA and AAA he hasn’t been good. He’s still very young and I think was promoted overly aggressively (why the hell did he start the season in AAA this year?). So anything can happen and tools are very important. But I’m worried when I’m not seeing the results in AA or AAA.
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by Scott McKinney on Oct 11, 2011 11:09 AM EDT up reply actions
The same could be said for Myers of course
His stock took a big hit for me this year. I still like him because he’s young and was awesome last year, but he was very average this year, and I don’t like that there’s talk of mechanical flaws in his swing.
As for pitcher vs hitter success rates, I wonder if we’ll find that those trends are overstated. BA wants to order its rankings according to likely MLB success, and I’m sure they’re aware that in the past, they systematically over-valued pitchers in their rankings. If they change correct their analysis, the trend disappears.
I hear what you're saying about Myers
And I had this argument with billybeingbilly and others who really liked Myers season. And quite frankly they changed my mind. He had a pretty flukey injury/illness problem which ate up a couple months. After that, he raked.
As for pitcher vs hitter success rates, I wonder if we’ll find that those trends are overstated. BA wants to order its rankings according to likely MLB success, and I’m sure they’re aware that in the past, they systematically over-valued pitchers in their rankings. If they change correct their analysis, the trend disappears.
I don’t see them making any such changes. I haven’t heard or read prospect evaluators talking about how they’ve probably been overrating pitchers. I haven’t heard of BA making any changes or recognizing any systematic problem with their evaluations. Quite frankly, I haven’t heard or read anything like that from anyone in the prospect evaluation field.
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by Scott McKinney on Oct 11, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions
yeah...and there's no evidence that they're lowering pitchers simply b/c they're pitchers if you look at the lists either
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 11, 2011 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I would think that if they are adjusting their rankings to account for the higher failure rate of pitchers, there would be fewer pitchers in the top 20/50/100 in recent years than in past years. And I don’t think that’s the case.
And if the argument is that they are just evaluating pitchers better now than they did in the 90’s and early 00’s, I just don’t see evidence to support that.
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by Scott McKinney on Oct 11, 2011 11:44 AM EDT up reply actions
i think in a few years if you redo your study...
you’ll see a higher success rate. i think its inevitable with how easy it is to get videos on guys…how many more minor league games are on tv, etc. i would imagine that that increased accuracy would grow with both pitchers and hitters though.
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by billybeingbilly on Oct 11, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
That’s certainly possible.
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by Scott McKinney on Oct 11, 2011 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Your study ended at the 2003 list
And of course, the hitting-pitching match-up has shifted sharply toward pitching in the last few years. It’s worth entertaining the possibility that something about pitching development has changed.
It's worth entertaining
I just don’t see good evidence of it yet.
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by Scott McKinney on Oct 11, 2011 12:15 PM EDT up reply actions
It's not about lowering pitchers b/c they're pitchers
It’s about correctly assessing their value. They don’t need to give interviews about a gradual effort to become more accurate.
Is there any reason to believe that they have become more accurate?
Certainly they want to be more accurate with all prospects. Is there any reason to believe that 1) they saw a problem with their evaluations of pitching prospects, and 2) have done something to address this problem, and 3) have actually improved their analysis and evaluations of pitching prospects?
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by Scott McKinney on Oct 11, 2011 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
He was also very young (20 for the whole year) playing full season AA ball
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by Old Man Duggan on Oct 11, 2011 2:33 PM EDT up reply actions
This
Plus, isn’t Arvest more helpful to LH hitters thanks to the wind or something?
by moregritplease on Oct 11, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, Arvest really pumps the power numbers of LH hitters
But not so much for RH hitters.
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by Scott McKinney on Oct 11, 2011 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions
I wouldnt say Monty 'hasnt been good' at AA. He was decent if not solid.
56 IP: 3.47 ERA, 3.97 FIP with less than a hit per inning in ’10….his FIP this season was only 4.30. According to Piccolo, he was asked to work on his change-up with disregard to his stats this season because that was viewed as the one skill that was holding him back. Does that explain his high walk rate? A little bit but not really….It has been reported by moore and piccolo that his change improved a full grade in ’11. I think he makes the team out of ST as the #5 starter in april if he keeps his walks down.
I think so
and after checking with a more prospect-ey guy (J.D. Sussman), he agrees. Myers had a bad year that can’t be completely attributed to injuries.
On the other hand, Montgomery’s numbers has never even been good outside of the pitchers paradise at Single-A Wilmington (although to be fair, that’s true of pretty much every recent Royals pitching prospect outside of Duffy), which Myers, curiously enough, rocked at a very young age.
The pitcher vs. position player thing is there, too. Myers was hurt this season, but Montgomery hasn’t exactly CC Sabathia when it comes to avoiding injury.
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by Matt Klaassen on Oct 11, 2011 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions
Myers was BA Top 10 going into the season
And Monty was top 20. Obviously they will be lower than that. Odorizzi will probably rise, maybe into the Top 50. If he were the big piece of along with a RP in a major deal, that makes more sense than giving up Myers or Monty when their value may be down.
by thelaundry on Oct 11, 2011 12:35 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
BA's midseason top 50
17. Myers
23. Odorizzi
27. Montgomery
That was posted on July 7. After that date, Myers performed very well, Montgomery had mixed results and Odorizzi didn’t do great after his promotion. So I can’t imagine Myers isn’t a top 20 prospect. I think Odorizzi and Montgomery will stay in the top 40, maybe top 30.
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by Scott McKinney on Oct 11, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
good points
one thing to keep in mind (and this generally speaking) is that with something wholly subjective as prospect lists, they are going to change just about every time you ask someone to rank players, so there will be some movement from the 2011 midseason list to the 2012 preseason list even if the overall evaluation of the player does not change much.
For one, the 2011 draftees were not included in the midseason list, so there will be downward movement for some prospects simply because of the new blood. Also, the BA writers will be picking up more information about players as time goes forward, so even if a player performs better in the second half, the writers might speak to scouts or other development side personnel who are less enthusiastic about the player long-term than they were previously. And I think BA puts a much bigger effort into the preaseason list that goes into the handbook, so arguments might go on longer for the book edition than the midseason one.
I guess this is all to say that a player’s ranking may jump up or down from one list to the next even if the reasons are not readily apparent. Of course, people take the ranking orders way too seriously, but that is a whole different topic.
Good points
Especially about the draftees, which I hadn’t taken into account.
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by Scott McKinney on Oct 11, 2011 2:22 PM EDT up reply actions
i was going to make that point earlier...
but then i figured the draft picks entering would be at least evened out with the guys who graduated…and myers was pretty good after that list came out…i’d say he’s probably somewhere around 15-25 when BAs list comes out
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by billybeingbilly on Oct 11, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Sounds reasonable.
Much harder to speculate where Odorizzi and Montgomery will shake out.
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by Scott McKinney on Oct 11, 2011 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
I would guess that they'll both be around 40.
Odorizzi didn’t set the world afire in AA, and Monty won’t be penalized too much for struggles at Omaha, but he’s lost some luster from his preseason ranking to be sure. BA is still pretty scouting driven, so they’ll have to take his ceiling into account making him roughly equivalent to Odorizzi.
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by Old Man Duggan on Oct 11, 2011 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions
Looking at the Top 50, I'm not that impressed by a lot of non-Royals
When the numbers get outside the top 20, it seems very much scouting based. The K/BB numbers aren’t really blowing me away from anyone. I think the Royals should see a drop for performance, but not a whole lot of guys should be jumping them due to equal performance.
Are there guys who have really boosted themselves that I am missing?
Well, he doesn't really fit my criteria of
1) Non-Royal or
2) Top 50 prospect\
So…I think we may be on different pages. I was trying to say that I don’t see a huge drop-off for the likes of Monty, Jake, etc because I don’t see tons of guys passing them.
Though it is worth noting
Thank you for bringing up his year. I didn’t know about it and those are…uh…nice.
And I know Cuthbert was on the cusp at the time
Granted, his stock likely took a hit as he seemed to fatigue, but graduations could vault him into the Top 50 anyway.
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by Old Man Duggan on Oct 11, 2011 2:35 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh, yeah,
draftees…
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by Old Man Duggan on Oct 11, 2011 2:37 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah...there is almost no trade i'd do this offseason involving myers and monty...
simply b/c their value is low and teams know that
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by billybeingbilly on Oct 11, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Is there a consensus that Monty is better than Dwyer or Odorizzi?
I would not trade any of those three right now. Dwyer doesn’t get Billingsly by himself, and Odorizzi has filthy stuff.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Oct 11, 2011 11:04 AM EDT reply actions
Yes I think there is a consensus that:
Monty>Odorizzi>Dwyer
And I think prospect evaluators like Monty’s stuff a lot more than Odorizzi. I think it is his stuff which leads many analysts to say that Odorizzi’s ceiling isn’t super high.
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by Scott McKinney on Oct 11, 2011 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions
where does
Lamb fit into your equation there?
I think you have to wait and see how he comes back from TJ surgery
Still a good prospect, but on hold. And if we’re talking about trade value and who should be traded or kept, then Lamb needs to be off the board because trading him now would be selling ultra-low on him.
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by Scott McKinney on Oct 11, 2011 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Taking away the sins of the world
by Freneau on Oct 11, 2011 11:36 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions 3 recs
I think he has the chops
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I think this is the consensus ranking on these three
Monty seemed to have the ace ceiling, while most analysts were placing Odorizzi’s ceiling at #2 starter.
Lamb seemed divisive, as Goldstein loved him and had him ranked higher than Monty preseason, but I know even Parks seemed to think that Goldstein was too bullish on Lamb. I suppose the TJ could add a tick to Lamb’s FB. If it didn’t straighten out while adding velo, this could be a good thing, but obviously this isn’t something we can bank on, nor is a return to form.
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by Old Man Duggan on Oct 11, 2011 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't realize his walk rate was so high
If a deal that leads with Dwyer would work, I guess it wouldn’t be terrible. Billingsley just doesn’t really excite me. Declining K’s and increasing BB’s isn’t a great sign. I’d rather see if the Braves will give away Lowe for 2012.
What, you're saying a declining 27 year-old who is merely average in the NL
might end up being an albatross in the AL?
crazy talk
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by Matt Klaassen on Oct 11, 2011 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions
He kind of scares me really.
I just browsed through his game logs this year, he wasn’t even dominant against the worst offenses in the NL (SF, SD, HOU) in his seven starts against them this year. If he can’t perform at 2009 level against bad teams in 2011, I can’t imagine it will get any better in 2012-2014 for him.
by BeauJackson on Oct 11, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah
Pitchers are extremely perishable to begin with, and here you have a pitcher already showing some downward trends. Billingsley is guaranteed $35 million through 2015 (if 2015 team option is not exercised), so there is an especially big risk here that just as the Royals prospects are just hitting their peak in a couple years, the team cannot add other pieces because they are stuck paying 15 to 20% of the payroll to a pitcher who is not really helping.
by Gopherballs on Oct 11, 2011 12:02 PM EDT up reply actions
Still don't think the Dodgers have a compelling reason to move him
MLB will be very wary of approving any trades. My guess is the Dodgers just allow their FAs to walk, non-tender junk like James Loney and try to tread water until they find a new owner.
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by RoyalsRetro on Oct 11, 2011 11:39 AM EDT reply actions 3 recs
This
It seems like many on this site have assumed that the Dodgers are going to have a fire sale and that they are going to ship off good/pretty good/average young players. I just don’t think that’s likely.
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by Scott McKinney on Oct 11, 2011 11:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, the Dodgers already have something like $40 million coming off the books
There is a misconception among sports fans that bankruptcy automatically means liquidation.
At least the “let’s trade for Kershaw” talk has died down because that is just not going to happen.
by Gopherballs on Oct 11, 2011 11:56 AM EDT up reply actions
It's going to be less than 40M coming off the books
Factor in raises for Kemp, Kershaw, and Ethier through arbitration/extensions probably adds at least 12M to the payroll. Add Billingsley, Uribe, Guerrier, and Lilly raises due to deals already in place adds another 11M to their payroll. They should be able to shed 33.8M or so by non tendering players. So really, they are only shedding around 10M.
by BeauJackson on Oct 11, 2011 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions
The Dodgers have about $45 million in salaries coming off the books
in Kuroda, Broxton, Garland, Blake, Rivera, Loney (non-tender), Barajas, Kuo (non-tender), Carroll, Padilla, and dead money to Pierre and Cormier. With that much coming off the books, the Dodgers can afford to keep all of their guaranteed contracts and good arbitration eligible players, even if they end up cutting the payroll budget by 10%.
by Gopherballs on Oct 11, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions
ya, i dont see why they'd have to go in full firesale mode, was just saying its not going down by 40M
i forgot they were still paying pierre and cormier, so they’ll probably shed around 20M isntead of 10M. that leaves them around 100M, which is about 16% lower than this year’s payroll. They also went 82-79 this year, they might not think they’re that far off.
by BeauJackson on Oct 11, 2011 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Whoever we get will show how we posture ourselves for 2012
If we trade the farm for 1-2 arms then its an all in mentality. Id rather get one qualite guy, maybe wilson, and develope our guys we have now in the Minors. We wanrt to win ALOT not just 1 year
"Stay Classy Kansas City"
We wanrt to win ALOT not just 1 year
I think Moore does too, and I don’t think he’s willing to mortgage the organization’s future to get a pitcher or two. But that doesn’t mean that I don’t think he’ll trade prospects. I think that he has a lot of faith in his team’s ability to evaluate a minor leaguer’s major league future based on his tools. So I’m sure there are some Royals prospects that most think of as very good prospects that he’d be happy to part with because he doesn’t like the player’s ceiling/projection. So I think Moore will trade some good prospects for a SP or two, but he won’t think he’s hurt the team’s future because of who he decided to trade.
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by Scott McKinney on Oct 11, 2011 2:26 PM EDT up reply actions
Heyward-Bourne-Myers is going to be a heck of an outfield
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by Matt Klaassen on Oct 11, 2011 2:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Myers has a bad swing
and an ugly girlfriend.
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by Scott McKinney on Oct 11, 2011 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions
Nice.
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by Old Man Duggan on Oct 11, 2011 2:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I wish I got this
or maybe I don’t
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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by Matt Klaassen on Oct 11, 2011 2:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't you remember that line from the extra-subtle film adaptation of Moneyball?
Where the grizzled scout character evaluating a prospect dismisses him because he has an ugly girlfriend and players with ugly girlfriends have no confidence.
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by Scott McKinney on Oct 11, 2011 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Rory Mcllroy
Blew that(ugly GF) theory out of the water. At the US open they kept showing Mcllroy’s Dad and what I took to be his Mother. Turns out that was his GF, ouch
Isn't he dating the #1 Women's Tennis player?
I think two goofy looking world class athletes in love is nice. Also, I am pretty sure they have me beat in attractiveness.
isnt he irish?
explains everything…i think he said he’s moving to florida…i expect him to trade up for a much improved model very soon
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 11, 2011 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Am I crazy to sort of hope the Royals make a run at Kuroda again?
I honestly can’t remember if he wants to stay on the West Coast (it seems like he may have expressed that desire), but he’s obviously willing to sign a short-term deal.
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I like Kuroda
If they are going after a FA SP, it would be cool if they could sign him for a shortish, front-loaded deal.
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by Scott McKinney on Oct 11, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Again? When was the last time?
As for his desire to stay on the west coast, that’s true. But it gets even worse: he’s expressed a very strong desire to stay with the Dodgers, and he can block trades. He might accept a trade to the Angels, but around the trade deadline he was saying “probably no” to New York and Boston. Meanwhile, he was giving a “definitely no” to the AL Central contenders. KC is probably out of the question.
by moregritplease on Oct 11, 2011 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions
when he came over from japan.
dayton wanted him
I may actually skipped Gio in the poll and due him next.
- .-. ..- … – / – …. . / .—. .-. - .. . … …
by Jeff Zimmerman on Oct 11, 2011 3:11 PM EDT up reply actions
after looking at the ERA-FIP leaderboard
could you please add Chris Capuano and Chris Volstad to the pile?
Dutton reported at the time that Moore offered a bigger contract to Kuroda than the Dodgers did.
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by Scott McKinney on Oct 11, 2011 3:23 PM EDT up reply actions
And a free family membership in the Heart of American Japan-America Society!
It'll be just like home, Hiroki!
by Sweep_the_Leg on Oct 11, 2011 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Good call
I’ve thought about what I would recommend if the team really must go for it for some reason in 2012 (I don’t think they have to, nor should they go all-out), not that anyone would or should care what I think. I think the key is to give up litle or no prospects, and to not spend any money that would go to the 2012 payroll.
So the key is probably short-term deals. Javy Vazquez is one possibility, but there needs to be another pitcher. I’d forgotten about Kuroda. Big one-year deals might do the trick ( they might not, but it’s worth a try). No one important would be blocked, and if Montgomery or someone else starts rocking at Omaha, there’s a pretty good chance someone would get hurt anyway.
This isn’t my full “plan,” but one more thing: you really only has three likely good hitters (considered against all hitters) for 2012: Butler, Gordon, Hosmer. As overall players, those are the only guys likely to be above average. However, upgrading the other OFers could get too expensive, and you have to play Moose.
The one place that might be relatively cheaply upgraded without blocking anyone would be second base. I like Giavotella as a concept, but while he might turn out okay, he’s already got Callaspo’s glove… the problem is there’s a pretty good chance he has Getz’s bat.
Second baseman usually come relatively cheap on one-year deals, so Orlando Hudson or maybe even Kelly Johnson (assuming he isn’t Type A, of course, which I seriously doubt, since if the jays are crazy enough to offer him arb he’d be crazy not to take it) would do the trick. Might be other ideas. Marco Scutaro would be a great fit in many ways (decent hitter, could also back up SS — probably a better overall player than either Getz or Escobar, since he can actually hit), but Boston will probably bring him back, and if they don’t, he’ll be in demand elsewhere (e.g., Tampa Bay).
It would be a lot of money for just one year, but if it wouldn’t be in the next year’s budget, even if it doesn’t work out (and I don’t think it would, it would just give the team more of a chance without mortgaging the future), one a bunch of one-year guarantees, you just start over in 2013.
Could be fun… like I said, not my first recommendation, but a decent provisional plan.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
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Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 11, 2011 3:02 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
I also realize this would require the team to have a bigger-than-expected 2012 payroll
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 11, 2011 3:03 PM EDT up reply actions
this is the plan i would be happy with
go with 1 year deals for some additional pieces going into the season. if it is working out come july, then make some trades to go for it. if its not working out, all that happened was a bit of an inflated 2012 payroll with no long term harm as far as losing prospects and future payroll goes.
yes
Keeping the long-term flexibility in terms of both payroll and prospects is the key. The team should use 2012 to figure out what they got with the young players and then make a decision about when and how to cash in the payroll space and prospects.
Nothing much to add here
Billingsley, like Jackson, Jurrjens, Wandy, would be a good add since he’d probably be ok, he might be good, and he might be bad, but his contract wouldn’t be a back breaker if he got injured or flopped However, I just don’t see how he’d improve the team much more than a random FA SP ala Francis or Chen. I’d hate to give up any prospects for Billingsley (or the others) because their 1-2 additional wins for 2-3 years during 2012-2014 at market rates just doesn’t seem worth it.
The FAs worth going for seem to me to be Kuroda, Vazquez, and well, that's it.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Oct 11, 2011 3:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Gio Gonzalez
He pitches in one of the more pitcher friendly parks in baseball. His 4+ BB/9 would fit right in with the KC staff, but is that really what we want/need. James Shields pitches in a hitter/homer friendly ballpark and his BB/9 is closer to 2. Shields HR total would drop considerably in KC. Of course it depends on the price, but if the cost is equal, I would prefer Shields.
Good points on Gonzalez
All A’s pitchers should come with a warning sticker that your results may vary without the same ballpark and (usually) good defense behind him.
Tropicana Field, however, plays as a very pitcher friendly ballpark that suppresses home runs. Stat corner has the Trop suppressing offense about the same as the Colesium (96 LHB/96 RHB wOBA in Tampa Bay to 95/94 wOBA in Oakland). The Rays have also been best defensive team in baseball in baseball in recent years. Thus, the same concerns about Gonzalez should apply to Shields as well (although from a competition standpoint, Shields should get a little bump from the extra games against the AL East offenses while Gonzalez gets a little deduction for the extra games against the AL West offenses).
by Gopherballs on Oct 11, 2011 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
The Trop
Plays a lot smaller than the K
LF – 315 –
LC – 370 –
CF – 404
RC – 370
RF – 322 –
The power alleys play much shorter than at the K, balls that would not even land on the warning track at the K are in the seats at the Trop. And the fences down each line at the Trop are about 4ft high
I’m not saying it would cut Shields HR totals in half, I’m saying pitching at the K 1/2 the time would reduce his numbers somewhat.
Doesn't the Trop rate as a pitcher's park overall?
Foul territory, temperature, humidity matter too
Kila's slash for Apr 20 to May 4, 2011, right before he was sent down: .276 / .344 / .448
by SagehenMacGyver47 on Oct 12, 2011 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions
Yes, it is definitely a pitcher's park
1B: 98 / 99
2B: 99 / 85
3B: 94 / 145
HR: 89 / 92
wOBA: 96/ 96
Not an extreme pitcher’s park, but clearly helps pitchers and hurts hitters.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 12, 2011 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
I like Billingsley
Of all the pitchers on the list of targets, he is the one guy I think has the best chance of stepping it up a notch and becoming a true number 1 pitcher.
by BlueEyes_Austin on Oct 11, 2011 9:05 PM EDT reply actions
Two Trades...
Trade #1: Mike Montgomery and Wil Myers for James Shields.
Trade #2: Melky Cabrera, Will Smith and Luis Mendoza for Matt Cain and AA baller.
I realize that these trades cost us three of our top prospects, but they net two of the top WHIP #2 starters in the majors. If you don’t think these trades are equitable, please offer suggestions as to whom the Royals could offer instead to net Shields and Cain.
And the top prospects the remain are still impressive: Lamb, Dwyer, Cuthbert, Elier Hernandez, Bonafacio, Starling, Odorizzi, Colon, Adams, Billo, Ventura, Yambati, Chapman, Eibner, Lough, Fletcher, Arguelles, Brickhouse, Colon, Mondesi, Melville, Antonio, Rey Navarro, Mariot, Gallagher, Leonard, Kyle Smith.
This sets up the Royals OF in 2012 as follows:
LF: Alex Gordon
CF: Lorenzo Cain
RF: Jeff Franceour
OF: Jarrod Dyson
Dyson is a very valuable asset on the team. He needs to stay up and start once or twice a week. He will be a pinch runner many times late in close games, and he will win them for us.
The 25 man roster will be as follows:
1. Alex Gordon – LF (L)
2. Johnny Giavotella – 2B (R )
3. Eric Hosmer – 1B (L)
4. Billy Butler – DH (R )
5. Jeff Franceour – RF (R )
6. Mike Moustakas – 3B (L)
7. Salvador Perez – C (R )
8. Lorenzo Cain – CF (R )
9. Alcides Escobar – SS (R )
Bench: Jarrod Dyson – OF (R ); Yamaico Navarro – 2B/3B (R ); Clint Robinson – 1B/DH (L); Brayan Pena – C (S)
I think one thing we lacked last year was a potent pinch hitter, especially from the left side. Clint Robinson fits the bill, and he can spot start for Butler and/or Hosmer if necessary. Also, Giovatella and Cain are interchangeable in the 2 and 8 spots in the lineup.
Starting Rotation:
1. James Shields (R )
2. Matt Cain (R )
3. Luke Hochevar (R )
4. Bruce Chen (L)
5. Felipe Paulino (R )
Other options: Danny Duffy, Everett Teaford, Aaron Crow, Nate Adcock, Jake Odorizzi, Chris Dwyer
I’m sorry, but Danny Duffy probably needs more time in the minors to figure out how to throw strikes. So does Sean O’Sullivan.
Relievers:
1. Joakim Soria – Closer (R )
2. Greg Holland – Setup (R )
3. Aaron Crow – Setup (R )
4. Kelvin Herrera – Setup (R )
5. Tim Collins – Setup (L)
6. Louis Coleman – Setup (R )
7. Everett Teaford – Setup/Long Relief (L)
I think you got Lorenzo Cain and Matt Cain mixed up
KC could get Lorenzo for that package, maybe. But a) they already have him, and b) I don’t really see him as a #2 starting pitcher. More of a center fielder.
Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.
by Matt Klaassen on Oct 12, 2011 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions
if we give up that much for fucking shields im done with the royals
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 12, 2011 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions
It is a real possibility
A deal for Shields in this market would likely start with Myers. The sellers hold the cards in these deals. What do you see as fair?
possibly myers and monty...
due to the shitty FA market…which is precisely why im not doing a major deal for a SP this offseason
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 12, 2011 8:26 AM EDT up reply actions
possibly myers and monty...
due to the shitty FA market…which is precisely why im not doing a major deal for a SP this offseason
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 12, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
that roster gets me all hot and bothered
but it’s probably because I am enamored with what we already have.
Matt Cain, yes.
James Shields for all that, hell no.
HIROKI KURODA YAA!
Trade
I would make both of those deals, but I doubt the Rays and Giants would. SOS is never going to make it, and Odorizzi is at least a year away. If Hochevar pitches all next season like he did after the All-Star break, he would be a good solid #3 – You don’t like Wood in the pen ?
friedman would take that deal in a heartbeat
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 12, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions
That's way way of a longshot
What you’re proposing here is a Brewers-esque deal of going for it right now, except that it would not be prudent to do so.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but we’ll only be getting Cain for one year. This would suggest that this lineup is ready to contend right now. Which it might not be. Too many variables. Gordon, Franceour will likely regress. No way Perez hits like he did this year. Gio and Moose might not progress, and its entirely within the realm of possibility that Hosmer’s 2012 is no better than his 2011 (except, of course, that he would get to play all year).
Furthermore, there is no rush to contend now, because we have no FA’s like Prince Fielder who are likely to leave. We don’t have a Ryan Braun-Prince Fielder combo.
Basically, we’d sort of be going all in for a year in which we aren’t even likely to compete even with the addition of Shields/Cain. And we’d be giving up our best pitching and best hitting prospect…in addition to someone more valuable than Will Smith. That seems a little low for a pitcher like Cain.
Also, please, Clint Robinson will not be on the Royals lineup ever, and if he is, it would be a waste of space. I’m sorry, but I’m tired of people somehow thinking he is of any value to this team whatsoever when he is way behind arguably the team’s two best hitters.
I think its more likely gordon improves
than regresses. His 2nd half was better than his first half and that included a crazy April. I could easily see him slugging .530-.550 this season. He still hasnt reached his ceiling.
His BABIP infers that he was likely rather lucky.
Sure, he could increase his ISO or do random other things better, but he’s probably in for a bit of regression on account of luck.
Sporadically musing on the Royals at both Royals Review and Royalscentricity, pop culture at Inconsiderate Prick, SVU at Munch My Benson and on Twitter at Old Man Duggan
by Old Man Duggan on Oct 13, 2011 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Can we please trade for Brad Peacock?
I could totally tell people he was my cousin and they’d believe it. And I could buy a Peacock Royals Jersey without the custom bit.
That is essentially what the Giants gave up for renting Beltran
Wheeler was BA Midseason #35, Peacock #42. Maybe instead of targeting pitchers we should be targeting GMs, starting with Sabean.
He hit well in 200 abs at Wilmington
But has done nothing convincing above single A. Has a good eye, but isnt hitting adavanced pitching with any power at all. Starting to remind me of Sean Casey more than Wil Clark. Also, and im certainly no scout, i watched him play and didnt see him using his hips or legs, the swing was all arm. This was pre-injury. Not saying he’s not a prospect, but fine with moving him.
Spanish Club President, Park Hill High, 1991-92
by jackie ballgame on Oct 13, 2011 12:12 PM EDT reply actions
Sorry, referencing myers there
Spanish Club President, Park Hill High, 1991-92
by jackie ballgame on Oct 13, 2011 12:13 PM EDT reply actions
That one sweet lookin' stache you got there Jackie...
Nice n’ thick. I cant see the top of your head though, whats goin on up there?
Why thank you
Spanish Club President, Park Hill High, 1991-92
by jackie ballgame on Oct 13, 2011 1:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
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