Royals Starting Pitcher Target: Chad Billingsley

Name: Chad Billingsley is a 27 year old RHP with the Dodgers

Contract: 3 year/$35M (2012: $9M, 2013: $11M, 2014: $12M) with a club option for 2015 for $14M with a $3M buyout

Pitches:

Fastball: Used around 50% to 60% of the time. Average 91.5 MPH.  It has been consistently at this speed since 2006.

Cutter:  Used around 20 to 25% of the time. Averages 88MPH.  In 2008 is when he used the cutter at this percentage.

Curve: Used around 15% to 20% of the time.  Averages 76 MPH.

Change-up: Used around 5% of the time. Average 85 MPH.

Here is a link to a nice interview with him on pitch sequencing (Part I and Part II).

Results:

Year GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 GB% ERA FIP xFIP WAR
2006 16 90.0 5.9 5.8 0.7 48% 3.80 4.88 5.43 0.6
2007 20 147.0 8.6 3.9 0.9 41% 3.31 4.02 4.02 2.0
2008 32 200.2 9.0 3.6 0.6 49% 3.14 3.35 3.58 4.4
2009 32 196.1 8.2 3.9 0.8 45% 4.03 3.82 3.99 3.1
2010 31 191.2 8.0 3.2 0.4 50% 3.57 3.07 3.67 4.5
2011 32 188.0 7.3 4.0 0.7 45% 4.21 3.83 4.14 2.1
Career 163 1013.2 8.0 3.9 0.7 47% 3.68 3.71 4.01 16.8

First, the 4 year decline in K/9 worries me. The walk rate scares me.  His career K/9, BB/9 and GB% are similar to Felipe Paulino's values:

8.3 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 44% GB%

He looks to be a 3 WAR (or less) pitcher for the length of his current contract.

Injury History:

Sept 2006: Strained Left Oblique Muscle - missed 13 games

August 2009: Hamstring - missed 9 games

June 2010: Groin - missed 12 games

August 2010: Calf - missed 5 games.

Generally, he is injury free with no elbow or shoulder problems in the past.

Conclusions:

Chad's ability and contract seem to fit in with the move to improve the Royals' pitching.  He could be a #1 or #2 starter if he is able to get his walk rate under control.

As is the case with any trade, the key would be what would the Dodger's want in return. I could see moving just about anyone.  Trade Monty straight up. I would do that.  Monty and Holland. Again yes. Myers.  I would not, but that is me.  I think his up side is too much and we would be selling low.

Well, that is it for Chad.  What are your thoughts?  Also, let me know which pitcher you would like looked at next.

 

Other Royal Starting Pitching Targets:

Jair Jurrjens

Wandy Rodiguez

Edwin Jackson

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