Royals Starting Pitcher Target: Gio Gonzalez

Name: Gio Gonzalez is a 26 left handed pitcher for the A's. Small for a pitcher, 5-11, 205 lbs

Contact: He is going into his 1st of 3 arbitration years (3 years of team control).  He is close to being a 3 to 4 WAR pitcher.  He would be worth, as a FA, $17.5m/year using 1 WAR = $5M/yr.  Using a weighting of 0.4, 0.6 and 0.8 for his arbitration years, he looks to make $7M, $10.5M and $14M.  Note: I am not the best with contracts so it would be great if someone checked these numbers.

Pitches:

Fastball (4 seam): 93 to 95 MPH (used 30% to 40%)

Fastball (2 seam): 91 to 93 MPH (used 20% to 35%)

Curveball: 10 to 4 curve: 80 to 85 MPH (used 25% to 30%)

Change:  81 to 85 MPH (used 6% to 8%)

Results:

Year GS IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 GB% HR/FB% ERA FIP xFIP SIERA WAR
2008 7 34.0 9.0 6.6 2.4 41.8% 23.1% 7.68 7.04 5.11 4.90 -0.6
2009 17 98.2 9.9 5.1 1.3 46.1% 13.9% 5.75 4.47 3.96 4.05 1.1
2010 33 200.2 7.7 4.1 0.7 49.3% 7.4% 3.23 3.78 4.04 4.18 3.2
2011 32 202.0 8.8 4.1 0.8 47.5% 8.9% 3.12 3.64 3.73 3.78 3.5

A key to remember with Gio is that he plays half his games in Oakland, which suppress offense. The park factors for wOBA 95/94 (LHH/RHH) and Home Runs 89/80. He does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground and a great K rate.  His main problem is the 4+ BB/9 walk rate.

Injuries: none yet

Conclusion:  Gio would become the Royals top pitcher if we traded for him.  His numbers are close to Paulino's with a better K/9.  I would expect his ERA to be closer to his FIP, xFIP and SIERA since he would be getting out of the spacious park in Oakland.

A trade would have to center around Montgomery or Myers or both.  I am not sure what market inefficiency Beane is after now, but I am sure the Royals will probably get the short end of the stick.  Gonzalez would be a nice addition to the rotation depending on what it would cost the Royals in return. 

 

Other Royal Starting Pitching Targets:

Jair Jurrjens

Wandy Rodiguez

Edwin Jackson

Chad Billingsley

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