Royals Starting Pitcher Target: Gio Gonzalez

Name: Gio Gonzalez is a 26 left handed pitcher for the A's. Small for a pitcher, 5-11, 205 lbs

Contact: He is going into his 1st of 3 arbitration years (3 years of team control). He is close to being a 3 to 4 WAR pitcher. He would be worth, as a FA, $17.5m/year using 1 WAR = $5M/yr. Using a weighting of 0.4, 0.6 and 0.8 for his arbitration years, he looks to make $7M, $10.5M and $14M. Note: I am not the best with contracts so it would be great if someone checked these numbers.

Pitches:

Fastball (4 seam): 93 to 95 MPH (used 30% to 40%)

Fastball (2 seam): 91 to 93 MPH (used 20% to 35%)

Curveball: 10 to 4 curve: 80 to 85 MPH (used 25% to 30%)

Change: 81 to 85 MPH (used 6% to 8%)

Results:

Year	GS	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB%	ERA	FIP	xFIP	SIERA	WAR
2008	7	34.0	9.0	6.6	2.4	41.8%	23.1%	7.68	7.04	5.11	4.90	-0.6
2009	17	98.2	9.9	5.1	1.3	46.1%	13.9%	5.75	4.47	3.96	4.05	1.1
2010	33	200.2	7.7	4.1	0.7	49.3%	7.4%	3.23	3.78	4.04	4.18	3.2
2011	32	202.0	8.8	4.1	0.8	47.5%	8.9%	3.12	3.64	3.73	3.78	3.5

A key to remember with Gio is that he plays half his games in Oakland, which suppress offense. The park factors for wOBA 95/94 (LHH/RHH) and Home Runs 89/80. He does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground and a great K rate. His main problem is the 4+ BB/9 walk rate.

Injuries: none yet

Conclusion: Gio would become the Royals top pitcher if we traded for him. His numbers are close to Paulino's with a better K/9. I would expect his ERA to be closer to his FIP, xFIP and SIERA since he would be getting out of the spacious park in Oakland.

A trade would have to center around Montgomery or Myers or both. I am not sure what market inefficiency Beane is after now, but I am sure the Royals will probably get the short end of the stick. Gonzalez would be a nice addition to the rotation depending on what it would cost the Royals in return.

Other Royal Starting Pitching Targets:

Jair Jurrjens

Wandy Rodiguez

Edwin Jackson

Chad Billingsley