Why the Best Rotation Option is to Look Within

…so I obviously concur. I DO think the Royals will need to go outside the organization for depth, at the very least. I still don’t think Wandy Rodriguez would cost a lot in terms of talent, and Tom Gorzelanny may be non-tendered. Not the guys I’d build a division-contender with, but someone along those lines will be needed, especially when the most innings pitched by any on the above list was Hochevar’s 198 last year.

but I also think the Royals NEED to identify and acquire a decent starter via trade or FA for next season. Dwyer and Odorizzi just aren’t realistic options for next season’s rotation. Teaford, Mazzaro, and O’Sullivan are all long-relief/emergency 5th starter/Omaha depth. So, without making a move, you’re relying on Crow to become an effective starter (which he has yet to do at any significant level), and Duffy and Montgomery to suddenly start throwing more strikes.

I would offer Chen arbitration, and take the pick if he declines. Like you said, try to find a youngish #3-#4 starter, preferably with at least 2-3 years of team control left, by trading Melky + lower-level prospects. If Chen declines and you can’t pull off a decent trade, then I would definitely sign 1 or more guys like Maholm, Bedard, maybe Francis again, etc. I don’t want Moore to spend a ton of money or prospects going after any of the big fish this year, but I also wouldn’t want him to roll into the season just expecting and relying upon Crow, Duffy and Monty to spend the entire year in the rotation.

This also carries over to 2B. Play Gia all year, perhaps spelled here and there by Navarro, and let him sink or swim. If every option you try is a disaster, then there will be guys like Hudson, Keppinger, Izturis, etc. available on reasonable, short-term deals for 2013 or beyond (until Colon proves he’s ready or a bust).

Go for it now

or

Wait a year

Agreed. My thoughts in bullet point form:

- Dwyer shouldn’t be included on 2012 SP candidates. Earliest we could hope to see him in KC is mid-2013. Mendoza should be on the list.

- I also think Chen is going to re-sign after the Royals offer arbitration.

- My main thought is that we have 11 potential starters who are 28 or younger and 7 who are 25 or younger (Hoch-28, Paulino-28, Duffy-23, Crow-24, Teaford-27, Monty-22, Mendoza-27, SOS-24, Mazarro-25, Odorizzi-21, Dwyer-23). Their potential is debatable, but a case can be made for all of them.

- I’m not opposed to Moore looking around at FA SPs – that’s his job, he should do it. But it seems like there are going to be very few good deals this year and there will be lots of bad ones. I don’t trust Moore to find the gem amongst the lemons.

-Lets see what we have. 2011 was a fluky year – career years for lots of players. Lets see if they can repeat it. If they can, lets make some moves (maybe SP, maybe a 2B) in July and next off-season. 95% of the players on the roster aren’t going anywhere between now and 2013 unless we let them go. So lets not go for it now, when the timing isn’t ideal.

I don’t mind picking a pitcher up if he’s here for the next three years, but if we’re good in the next 3-5 years, we’re going to need a few internal options become really good starting pitchers. And there are a few candidates to take leaps in performance – Paulino, Duffy, and longer shots like Crow and Hochevar.

Shouldn’t the Royals be selling this offseason, then?

(yeah, I know)

is good enough to be considered a lock for next year.

Luke Hochevar #1? He had a good second half this year, and I hope it continues, but he still has the exact same career ERA as a Royals starter as Kyle Davies. (and had to have the good second half to get there) They are the same age. Kyle had a good end of the season a couple of years ago, and it did not change who he was.

Felipe showed some promise this year, and could either improve or regress. If he is the same, he will not be good enough to be a #2 starter on a good team. Duffy flat out sucked this year. He is young and should get better, but you cannot count on it and he has options. We should offer Chen a one year deal. It puts in a winning situation whether he chooses to stay or go.

I am all for trying to go after Jackson. Not to drastically overpay for him if the market goes crazy, but to make an honest effort to get him. You compare him to Wilson and Sabathia, instead you should compare him to our pitchers. He would be the odds on favorite to be OUR best pitcher next year. Also, when you sign a pitcher, what you get is the difference between him and whoever would be your #5 if you did not have him, and that difference is drastic. I am all for offering a short term deal to Javier Vasquez. I am all for at least shopping Melky to see what his perceived value is, and seeing if we can get a plus starter for a package including him.

Starting pitching is something which should be addressed every year! You cannot stagnate and try to fix it all in one year or hope people get better. If you improve your pitching AND your other pitchers step up, then Hallelujah! It means you have a great staff or perhaps even a surplus for trading.

Whether they are able to add one or more pitchers or whether they fail, I will state again that none of our current pitchers have proven enough to be GIVEN a job next year. We should look at every in house option, throw all the darts at the board and see who earns a spot. Teaford? absolutely, see what we’ve got. Crow? Why not try it out? Mendoza? I think it is all smoke and mirrors but give him a chance as well. Monty? He will be in spring training so we look at him too. If Odirizzi gets an invite, he gets an even chance. Even longshots SOS and Mazarro would get a chance.

Even if we don’t think we have a chance to contend this year, building for 2013 means at least attempting to begin to upgrade your staff. Worst case scenario, we get a player or two closer to contending, and another year for someone else to step up.