My crazy plan for the Royals
I think we are all excited about the Royal's future the next couple of years. We look forward to ending many seasons of non relevance in the pennant race. This is my pie in the sky dream of how to hasten the day this team is relevant again. On the surface, it seems impossible, as the basis for the entire plan rests on the thin hope that David Glass saved salary the last two years so that the team had money to make the moves we need to make now.
What better to time to roll the dice and be bold than now, with the all star game next season? My plan is after the jump.
We all know that the Royal's biggest weakness is starting pitching, and that the free agent market for top flight starting pitching is thin this year. Rany and others have suggested incrementally improving our pitching next year with Edwin Jackson and Javier Vasquez, and I still think we should do that. The free agent market for starters after next season is flush, with Cole Hamels, Shaun Marcum, Matt Cain, and Greinke, possibly Dan Haren, and many others a tier below.
What is the best way to make make an elite pitcher consider coming here? (Other than money, that is a given) It would be to make ourselves an offensive and defensive force, and be recognized by players as a team on their way to success, by the end of next season.
The first step in my plan is to lay it all on the line to sign Prince Fielder as a free agent. He gives us the feared cleanup hitter we have long been lacking, and he really should be a DH. He has a past relationship with Ned Yost. He is known as a team leader. This would take opening up the vault, but it is worth it.
Where would Billy Butler go? That is part of step two. What else do we need? We could use more surety at second base. I don't think we have an organizational player there who projects to be above average either offensively or defensively. (With apologies to Johnny G) We could use a leadoff hitter. Alex did a fine job this year, but is not a true leadoff guy, and I for one would rather see him in the #3 hole. There is one target that would help our team more than any other, and his name is Ian Kinsler. He is an elite fielder, a fabulous base runner, he takes a walk and can hit. Kinsler is under contract for 2012, with an affordable (for a player of his caliber) team option for 2013. It would take a blockbuster to get him, and I propose we offer one. It would start with Butler and a second baseman, (Giovotella or Getz, whichever one they choose) but would probably take more. Do we have a prospect they covet? Done. Prospects have trade value, and eventually we are going to have to give up a touted one to make our team better now. You can't hoard them forever. Would they rather have Melky instead of a prospect? Done. I think they were going to see what his value is anyway.
Suddenly our lineup is formidable. Our middle infield defense is the best in baseball. If Cabrera was dealt and Cain was in center, we would have plus defense at 7 of the 8 positions on the field. (Sorry Moose, you did not make the cut.) Attendance would go up, the team would at least flirt with contention, the all star game will bring us even more attention. Instead of being known as a place no pitcher wants to go to, we would be a club with a very good batting lineup and great defense to back up the pitcher, on our way to bigger things.
We would basically become the type of club an elite pitcher wants to sign with. We could target one of the elite guys above, and perhaps a second tier guy such as (depending on how they look next year) Colby Lewis, Brandon Mccarthy, John Danks, or a Sanchez. (Anibel or Jonathan)
Pie in the Sky? Maybe, but I think it could be possible. Sometimes, you have to push all your chips to the center of the table and go all in. Two years from now, the Cards could be sitting at home watching US on TV.
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I like your enthusiasm
But this plan has no chance of working.
1. If we sign Fielder, where does the money come from to sign an elite pitcher next year? The royals already have about $45mil on the books, fielder makes that $60+. And the royals won’t she’ll out the extra $15+ to get a starter on top of that.
2. Why would the Rangers part with one if the best 2B in the game when they are in competition mode? And double why would they want an increasingly expensive average hitting DH who can’t run?
"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.
by RoyalPug on Oct 23, 2011 11:24 AM EDT via mobile reply actions
Also there are problems with Kinsler
Gordon is probably the better lead off h1itter to start with.
Plus kinsler has trouble staying on the field. In only 2 of his seasons has he started 130+ games.
And lets not forget that a lot of his value is ried up in his HRs, wat least a few of which would turn into outs in kauffman
"We don’t have guys with a long history of being effective in the seventh and eighth innings."
~Trey Hillman, master of understatements.
by RoyalPug on Oct 23, 2011 11:35 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
I'd take 130 games of Kinsler over
162 games of just about any other 2B in baseball.
by Sweep_the_Leg on Oct 24, 2011 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
I like the plan, but...
I don’t think the Kinsler trade idea makes much sense. If anything, I’d rather see them trade Butler and all the other guys you mentioned (maybe a couple more) for James Shields and Ben Zobrist.
Put James Shields at the top of the rotation. If he replaced Jeff Francis last year, our team ERA would have been 4.18 instead of 4.55 last year. This does not include improvement from any of our pitchers next year.
Our middle infield D would still improve by a ton with Zobrist, as well as the offense at that position.
Sign Fielder. Don’t sign Jackson. Trade Butler, Myers (Yes, I am advocating trading Myers. I’d rather see them keep Montgomery over Myers), Giavotella, Clint Robinson, Ben Theriot, Blake Wood, and Derrick Robinson (Or a similar package) for James Shields and Ben Zobrist (Yes, it’s going to take a big package). Offer Chen arbitration, sign Gordon to an extension. That is pretty much my ideal off-season.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
2012 is the year we shine.
Butler, Myers, Giavotella
Is pretty much what you’re giving up, Jack. Blake Wood is a dime/dozen middle reliever. The other 3 are organizational filler.
If you wanted your neighbor’s ‘66 Chevelle, he isn’t going to trade it for your ‘93 Dodge Shadow, even if you throw in a set of metric sockets, a garden rake, a can of WD-40, some cat litter, and a 2002 Norman Rockwell calendar. Wanna know why, Jack? Cause he’s already got that shit sitting around his garage. Everybody does. So it’s still basically the Chevelle for the Shadow, and he’s not interested. Its a nice day, Jack. Call your friends and go outside and play, while you still can.
by Rufus R. Jones on Oct 23, 2011 12:29 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 2 recs
You don't have to be a dick about his age
Even if you’re right.
"All the boys think she's a guy
She's got crazy Frenchy eyes."
by Juancho on Oct 24, 2011 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Not being a dick
I’m being serious. It was a nice day, and is again today. Jack said the other day he is a baseball player, so I was advocating that he take advantage of the limited # of nice warm days left before winter.
by Rufus R. Jones on Oct 24, 2011 2:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Methinks thou art being ingenuous
I saw Rufus R. Jones in the ring. I lived the Rufus R. Jones experience. I cheered for Rufus R. Jones. You, sir, are no Rufus R Jones.
"All the boys think she's a guy
She's got crazy Frenchy eyes."
by Juancho on Oct 24, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
Wasn't he the "King of the Headbutts"?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 24, 2011 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Then I'm sure
You know what the R stands for?
by Rufus R. Jones on Oct 24, 2011 10:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The R stands for "guts."
And, yes, he was known for the occasional headbutt. I remember him from the end of his career. He didn’t have a lot of moves by then. They used to have pro wrestling at the old Hoch Auditorium at KU. I didn’t know he had died way back in ‘93; I thought he’d just retired.
They also showed porno movies occasionally on Saturday night at the Union; that stopped being acceptable about when I got there in ’84. The fratboys would sit down front and when the blow job scene came, half of them would chant “Tastes great!” and then the other half would yell “Less filling!”
"All the boys think she's a guy
She's got crazy Frenchy eyes."
That is hilarious
I used to watch Rufus on Saturday mornings on KQ2 out of St.Joseph. Was usually filmed the night before at Civic Arena in St. Joe.
by Rufus R. Jones on Oct 26, 2011 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
Really?
Swap Butler, Giavotella, a top prospect, and $30+M per year for Fielder and Kinsler? Isn’t there something better we could do with $30+M per year without losing Myers/Monty?
Yea
If we have that kind of money, you can probably get two pretty good pitchers instead of Fielder and Kinsler, and keep Butler, Gioa and all those prospects.
Second is probably the worst position to invest money in. Its pretty easy to find replacement level talent, and they don’t age well. I’m fine with giving Gio a chance.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Orlando Hudson and Matt Latos
Hudson can play defense and is a good hitter. He also would provide leadership. The Padres were interested in trading him and his contract last year and taking on his contract could lessen the cost for Latos.
"You need to get real!"
Orlando Hudson wasn't on the Padres last year
He’s only signed for $5.5 mill next year, not a ton. The Pads have no reason to move Latos.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Some replies:
@ Dadunca- I had not been on the site for a week, so I had not read that, but it is an interesting coincidence. I thought of this stuff while beginning to write my post season summary.
@RoyalPug- The (admittedly thin) premise for the entire idea was the hope that Glass would bump the payroll to $85 million or so (We went above $70 million only two years ago) for a short term run at glory, while we still followed the same scouting strategy to continue to supply fresh young talent t the pipeline. Also, Kinsler has had a .357 or higher wOBA in every year he has played, he has just gotten to it differently each year. He is also an elite fielder and base runner.
@Jack Marsh- The Shields/Zobrist idea is interesting.
@kcdc1 & Royals Retro- I think the entire point of this plan was to make our team an attractive option to elite starting pitching. Right now, we would have to severely overpay to get a quality pitcher to come here. We might have to pay ace money and # of years to a second tier pitcher, or trade alot of prospects for the same. Also, Retro, Kinsler has averaged 4+ WAR over the last six years (in both bWAR and fWAR), including his rookie season. He has more WAR the last six years (using an average of the two) than the sum of the Royals best non pitcher each year. Since when is 4+ WAR not worth $17 million over two years? There are exactly zero free agent pitchers who have averaged 4+ WAR (again, using an average) over the last 3 years, not counting CC, who may not be one. CJ Wilson is higher than 4 in fWAR, but we are not getting him, and he will be alot more than $8.5 million per year.
"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance
its not worth 17 over 2 years plus giving up elite prospects....
and the rangers have absolutely no reason to trade kinsler right now
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 23, 2011 11:54 PM EDT up reply actions
In my scenario
We would be giving up one elite prospect, or maybe zero if they want Cabrera instead.
Butler’s position would already be improved, as would Giavotella’s. One elite prospect for an established great player at a position of organizational need, at a cost effective price.
I think most of people, (and perhaps Dayton as well) are stuck in the rut of being happy we won’t lose 100 games, struggling to get to .500, and holding on for dear life to what you have, hoping it will grow in value. They dream of landing elite free agent pitching prospects that quite simply will not consider us unless we make our team desirable by the end of next year. They think about trading for second tier pitchers, who would cost more prospects with a more risky outcome, and less than 50% chance of a higher WAR than Kinsler. If we make our team better using the avenues we can get to now, pitchers will WANT to come here.
There is always an overvalued commodity in Baseball. Currently that commodity is prospects.
If you hold on too tightly to what you have, you can never open your hand to reach for more.
"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance
why would less valuable pitchers cost more than the more valuable, affordably priced kinsler?
and how are we going to afford the hopefully high arbitration salaries of gordon, moose, hosmer, etc when we have prince taking up $25 M plus of our payroll?
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 24, 2011 1:06 AM EDT up reply actions
Because pitching costs more
as near as I can tell, over the last 4 or 5 years, 2nd and third tier free agent pitchers have averaged over $10 million per season. None of the pitchers I used for this pool had 4 WAR the season before they signed, and none have achieved it following their signing, so I did not pump this up with any great ones. Actually I avoided really good ones and called them first tier even though they were not aces which brought the prices in my impromptu study down.
As far as Fielder goes, the danger, as with any team who signs a big free agent (including pitchers) is that he would become injured or decline precipitously. That will always be a bigger risk with a small market team. The ideal plan would be to have him only about 3 years (perhaps 4) of his contract to make a run before dealing him for a good haul and starting over at that position again. He could have a bad year in there without destroying his trade value, and unless he fell of the map, we would be able to do this. As he will be only 28 next year, we have a chance to do this that we would not have with a player already into his 30’s.
As a DH, he will be safer from a contract exploding injury at $20 million+ than any second tier starter we sign for $10 million +, or any ace next year who would easily cost $15 million or more IF they even considered us an option.
We could take a chance to reach greatness while we have a young core, or we could stand pat and celebrate when we reach .500, (YAAAY!) and only finish 12 games out. (Oh, those plucky Royals)
"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance
The idea of Dayton trading anybody for anybody
frightens me. We’re sure to come out behind.
"All the boys think she's a guy
She's got crazy Frenchy eyes."
Jesus Christ, why does everyone just figure that we're not going to win anything?
I’m not pissed at you or anything, but it seems like a lot of Royals fans act like we’re never going to win. They manipulate the stats to show that we are at least a few years off every year, and act like we never win trades because Dayton made some shitty trade two years ago.
I'm a 14 year old freshman in high school with a love for all things Royals and Packers.
2012 is the year we shine.
Because were the Royals
Best Farm System EVER.....
by tiquanunderwear on Oct 24, 2011 9:05 AM EDT up reply actions
I dont think we think the Royals will never win
But most of us think we won’t win this year. The winner of our division is going to win 92+ games and I don’t think the Royals are going to be 20 games better than last year.
by Royals Time on Oct 24, 2011 9:21 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Think with your head, Jack, not your heart
Jesus Christ, why does everyone just figure that we’re not going to win anything?
I think all of us think the Royals are likely to become contenders at some point in the not too distant future.
it seems like a lot of Royals fans act like we’re never going to win. They manipulate the stats to show that we are at least a few years off every year
So far, we have been “at least a few years off every year.” Correct? And I don’t think anyone is “manipulating the stats” to show something that isn’t true. I think many of us are honestly, objectively looking at the stats and seeing that the Royals aren’t close yet.
and act like we never win trades because Dayton made some shitty trade two years ago
What we see is that Dayton Moore has a 5+ year track record of being an exceptionally poor evaluator of Major League talent. Therefore, we are understandably worried about Moore trading prospects/players of value for a Major Leaguer. Does that concern make sense to you?
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 24, 2011 10:15 AM EDT up reply actions 3 recs
I think we ought to do what FC Barcelona does
which is develop good players and use them. Genuine top 50 prospects are much cheaper than aging free agents, and should not be thrown away in trade for anything less than an established major leaguer. We need to do exactly what Dayton’s good at doing. He’s a hell of a scouting director. Throw shit at the wall and see what sticks. The guy who wins this contest is the one who’s best at sifting through the shit and deciding which chunks to throw.
But Dayton should not be allowed to make trades or judge major league talent. Maybe he’s getting better at free agents—Frenchy, Melky, and Chen were certainly successful signings for 2011, they may have something in Felipe “Just Ate the Whole Burger King” Paulino, and Francis wasn’t a bad idea at the price. He hasn’t made a good trade yet that I can think of except maybe the Zack deal, and that one can’t be adequately judged for a couple more years. Well, he traded that criminal guy for Banny, who really wasn’t much good but was at least interesting, intelligent, and not a criminal.
Actually, Banny would make a better GM than Dayton. Bonus: he loves Jesus too.
"All the boys think she's a guy
She's got crazy Frenchy eyes."
He apparantly had something on Francoeur and Cabrera that no one else had.
And Paulino. Now the 2011 season isn’t “likely” to happen again, but come on. He had a very steep learning curve after the Guillen (Horrible) and Meche (Good for 2.5 years bad for 1.5 years) signings. Trading RP for 1B power and CF speed was not a bad move, but they didn’t work out. He has been VERY good at finding minor league talent, and not as good at finding MLB talent. But to say he has been an exceptionally poor evaluator of MLB talent is a stretch.
by royal_in_cincinnati on Oct 28, 2011 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I wonder if he'll "have something on Francoeur and Cabrera" again in 2012
Now the 2011 season isn’t "likely" to happen again, but come on
Come on? Isn’t that important? Their performances in the second season are as relevant and meaningful as in their first. And Francoeur has now been locked up for two more seasons. Moore has doubled down on that one-year bet. Does he still see something no one else sees? Is it really there?
He had a very steep learning curve after the Guillen (Horrible) and Meche (Good for 2.5 years bad for 1.5 years) signings.
And HoRam, Farnsworth, Kendall, Bloomquist, Ankiel, etc. Oh yeah, but Farnsy and Ankiel got us Collins. So that turned out…..well? That’s a lot of money (Farnsy’s money, plus Ankiel’s money) to spend on one not too impressive lefty reliever.
Trading RP for 1B power and CF speed was not a bad move, but they didn’t work out.
You dismiss those mistakes as apparently good ideas that just didn’t happen to work out. That really doesn’t accurately describe those transactions at all. They were conceptually bad. “1B power” is worthless if the player’s overall value is low. And his overall value was very low. If a guy is a crappy player overall, but provides “1B power,” he’s still a crappy player. And Crisp’s problem wasn’t that he’s a crappy player; it’s that he’s usually injured so he doesn’t play full seasons and he was only under team control for one season, plus an expensive option. So they traded multiple years of a pretty good reliever for one year of an oft-injured CFer when the team wasn’t going to be anywhere near contention. Those moves didn’t just happen to not quite work out. They were bad ideas that predictably imploded.
But to say he has been an exceptionally poor evaluator of MLB talent is a stretch.
Are you kidding me? He’s been awful at evaluating major league talent. I mean really, truly awful. That’s one of the few obvious and essentially undeniable things that can be said of Moore. Now perhaps he’s gotten a lot better at it in a short period of time, but I doubt it. You don’t just suddenly become better at evaluating major league talent. I hope I’m wrong. Time will tell. But his overall track record of evaluating major leaguers so far is undebateable.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 28, 2011 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
When proposing a trade, you have to ask why the other team would be interested in it
Butler, Gia and a good prospect may be a fair trade for Kinsler, but why would the Rangers be interested in it? How does it make their team better? They would be without a good second baseman. And they don’t have a particular need at DH. And they are obviously contenders now, so they’re not looking to trade for prospects.
And I don’t think it makes sense from the Royals perspective either. Kinsler has only two years of team control remaining. It doesn’t make sense for a team like the Royals to trade 4 years of team control of Butler, 6+ years of team control from the prospect, plus Gia for 2 years of any player.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 24, 2011 10:11 AM EDT reply actions
If fairness
He did say it was a crazy plan.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Oct 24, 2011 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Also in fairness
I don’t think it was stupid, but I did have some problems with it. I did think the trade was the most glaring. For a trade idea to be realistic, it has to be fair to both sides, but that’s not all. For a lot of trade ideas, that’s as far as it goes. In addition to be fair and roughly equal, it has to make sense for both teams. Given where the teams are currently situated, does it make sense for both teams to make that particular exchange? I don’t think that trade made sense for either team, given where they are and what their needs are.
You may know me as NYRoyal.
by Scott McKinney on Oct 24, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Scott is right on this one
99.9% of fan proposals for trades, including mine, are crap (though I did advocate acquiring Doug Fister and signing Freddy García). The problem is, as the KC Star said when we traded Saberhagen to the Mets for those three schloops, is that they assume your trading partner has just fallen off a potato truck.
You can’t make a deal unless the other guy needs what you’re going to give him. You could have 500 pounds of T-bone steaks and offer to swap them to me for a box of Cracker Jack, and I’ll turn you down because I’m a vegetarian. (Actually, if I were smart, I’d take the deal and freeze the steaks to use as cat food, since my cats are not vegetarian.)
"All the boys think she's a guy
She's got crazy Frenchy eyes."
cats and vegetarian???
that’s 2 strikes sir, mark it down.
MARK IT DOWN SMOKEY!!!
by Your_Moms_Boyfriend on Oct 28, 2011 7:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Unless we get an offer we just cant turn down
I hope we don’t make any trades this off season, unless its trading melky or francouer for a prospect. We are still a couple years away and to rent a player for a year or two doesn’t make since. And seeing a lot of our top prospects had down years, I don’t see the point in selling low. And the Prince Fielder signing doesn’t make since because our offense was far from the problem and that money would be served better on a starting pitcher. And I’m sure he would want to play first, not dh.
by Royals Time on Oct 24, 2011 11:42 AM EDT via mobile reply actions 5 recs
That sums it up pretty well
"All the boys think she's a guy
She's got crazy Frenchy eyes."
I dont mind the idea of going after a plus hitter at 2B or SS
i wouldnt really want to trade for a guy with only two years left on his contract though. i dont know if its the right move, but i could see going after brandon phillips on a front loaded contract if the reds dont pick up his option.
I havent given up on Gio, but it would be nice to have someone who can hit at 2B or SS
And if Gio doesn’t hit, he’s not really worth anything with his mediocre at best defense. I don’t think it’d be the smartest thing in the world to do, but paying someone like Phillips now while the young guys aren’t raking in the dough wouldn’t be indefensible.
i dont see any way the reds dont exercise that option though...
even if they dont want to pay him…he’d have trade value
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Oct 24, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Phillips is
untradeable. Any trade makes the option a mutual one, so he could decline it and become a free agent. Even if you could get him to accept the mutual in advance, he would probably cost more in prospects than my Kinsler scenario, unless the Reds really wanted Melky.
If they did not pick up his option, he would probably get at least that on the free agent market.
Kinsler is better than Phillips and one year younger. his cost is 2 years for $17 million total. If you wanted it to be longer (BeauJackson), we would have the option of re working his deal prior to the option year. He would probably still be cheaper than a full free agent Phillips, as we would get the first year at $7 million, and the option year as leverage. Barmes would be cheaper, (say $4 or $5 million) but, although he is a good fielder, I don’t think he adds enough to warrant not looking at Gio, and he is the oldest of the players mentioned as well. I think Gio could reach Barme’s offensive level. Trivia: The Astros acquired Barmes for our own Felipe Paulino.
I like seeing ideas other than waiting and hoping though.
"Trying is the first step to sucking" -Jimmy Chance
i think the best idea is to trade for joe saunders
he is a proven winner
by BeauJackson on Oct 25, 2011 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions
Offensively...
Gio will be better than Barmes, shortly, I believe. Clint has a career OPS+ of 78.
As for 2nd base, I would rather the Royals go after Kelly Johnson. He’s LH, three years younger than Barmes, a former Brave and DM pick, has played slightly above average defense through his career, has a history of up/down years (and this year was a down year), has 47 HRs in the last two years, and is possibly interested in a one-year deal to re-establish himself after a not-very good 2010. And he wouldn’t cost us Billy Butler (or anyone else). If Aaron Hill is non-tendered, I think he’d be worth taking a gamble on, as well.
If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.
by setupunchtag on Oct 26, 2011 10:04 AM EDT up reply actions

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