Guess who is the top play?
A few years ago, Tom Tango created Win Probability Added (WPA). It uses historic numbers show the chances that a team will win a game. It is called a story stat. It looks for which plays had the most impact on the game. Here are the 5 best and worst WPA values for the Royals hitters in 2011:
5. WPA = -0.209
On 2011-08-13 the Royals (vs White Sox) are down 4-5 in the 8th inning with 1 out, the following happened:
Hosmer was at 2B besides Frenchy being on 1B. The one piece of data that I don't buy is that it was a weak hit to SS. I don't remember a weak hit out of Sal all season.
4. WPA = -0.211
On 2011-04-03 with the score tied 9-9 in the bottom of the 13th inning with 1 out, the following happened:
This is what happens when Escobar and Getz are hitting. At least Matt Treanor was hitting next. He hit a 3 run blast to deep LF for a 12 – 9 win.
3. WPA = -0.225
On 2011-06-19 with the Royals (vs TLR's Dream Team) down 3-4 in the 7th inning with 1 out, the following happened:
Jeff Francoeur lined out to second (Liner). Melky Cabrera out at second.
Alex Gordon was on 3B, so a little small ball by Frenchy would have gotten him home. Instead, he was unclutch and hit into the double play.
2. WPA = -0.235
On 2011-07-10 with the Royals (vs. Tiggers) down 1-2 in the 9th inning with 1 out, the following happened:
Eric Hosmer was caught stealing.
He wasn't even trying to get himself in scoring position. He was already at 2B. He was caught going to 3B. Rookie mistake.
1. WPA: -0.325
On 2011-04-21, Royals (vs Indians) are down 1-2 in the 9th inning with 0 outs, the following happened:
Royals had a 66% chance of winning with a run on 1B and 3B. Escobar can't get the ball out of the infield. Aviles out on the bases. I think I have heard this story a few times. At least there is a happy ending if you keep reading.
5. WPA = 0.+436
On 2011-05-18 with the Royals down 2 to 3 in the 9th inning with 0 outs, the following happened:
Eric Hosmer homered (Fly).
Hoz led the 9th off with a HR off Neftali Feliz. This inning is probably most known for the two pinch runners, Dyson and Aviles, getting picked off later in the inning.
The two teams didn't score in the 10th inning. In the top of the 11th, good old dope smoking Jeremy Jeffress came in and gave up 2 runs.
4. WPA = +0.461
On 2011-04-21 with the Royals (vs. Indians) down 1-2 in the 9th inning with 1 out, the following happened:
Melky Cabrera singled to left (Liner). Mitch Maier scored. Alcides Escobar scored. Chris Getz advanced to 2B.
The Royals had their season's worst hitting WPA that inning (see #1 above). With runners at 1B and 2B, Chris Perez walks Chris Getz with runners and 1B and 2B. Yes that Chris Getz. Melky came up and hit a single to drive in the runners from 2nd and 3rd.
3. WPA = +0.509
On 2011-07-23 with the Royals (vs Devil Rays) down 3-4 in the 9th inning with 2 outs, the following happened:
Alex Gordon doubled to right (Fliner (Fly)). Alcides Escobar scored.
The double was versus the Professor. The Royals won the game in the 10th on a Butler Single, Aviles came in to pinch run, and Hosmer hit a double.
2. WPA = +0.513
On 2011-04-03 with the Royals (vs Angels) down 7-9 in the 9th inning with 1 out, the following happened:
Wilson Betemit doubled to left (Fliner (Liner)). Alex Gordon scored. Chris Getz scored. Jeff Francoeur advanced to 3B.
Fernando Rodney walk all three base runners (Getz was a PR for Kila). Betemit came in for a the double. After that double, the Angels switched to Kevin Jepsen. He then walk Escobar to load the bases again. Treanor and Aviles both ground out to end the threat.
1. WPA = +0.705
On 2011-07-15 with the Royals (vs Minnesota) down 0-1 in the 9th inning with 2 outs, the following happened:
Eric Hosmer homered (Fly). Melky Cabrera scored.
The Savior arrived and there was much rejoicing.