Trade Who?

by chubias on Oct 3, 2011 11:04 PM EDT

It seems reasonable clear that the Royals are going to need some new pitching blood. And though I am sure the Royals would be happy to sign a truly major free agent, I'm guessing that is unlikely to happen (Though not impossible). Assuming the Royals were unable/unwilling to pay for a free agent like Mark Burhle, Edwin Jackson, or CJ Wilson, the Royals can either wait for the prospects to mature or trade. Assuming you were going to make a trade or two, what would you put on the table?

In full disclosure, I'm not Royals fan. I like the Royals, and I was a fan as a kid. But I quit following baseball all together, and only picked it back up in the last couple years. My home is in Washington now, so I came back a Nationals fan (they can use all the help). If you are the kind of fan that can understand having an AL team and an NL team, then the Royals are my AL team. If you aren't, then I'm just a Nats fan. I explain all of this because I think that the teams ought to be talking. The Nationals have strong pitching depth. They could use another dominant starter, but what team couldn't? What the Nationals don't have is much of an offense. They ranked 24th in Runs and 25th in OBP. Could a workable trade be had?

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The Royals say they are looking for one top of the line guy, maybe a second.

If they go for a 2nd guy, maybe something could work. The Nats would only be willing to deal an average-ish guy with upside, like a Gorzelanny. I am guessing for that type of guy, the return would be Melky Cabrera. Offensive CF for SP. That is the only potential deal I see for these teams. Even in that scenario, the Nats win the trade, though.

by dejezeus on Oct 4, 2011 4:55 AM EDT reply actions

And the fans support this?

The whole rotation is busted, and they are looking to fix one guy? I’ll admit that I don’t know all the prospects the Royals have, but it seems like you would be better off with five 3s than a 1 and four 5s. Perhaps I am wrong, but it seems like your position players need only the chance to win. Unlike some NL teams that need to win games 3-1, you guys can win 8-5. Plus, I don’t think you want Gorzelanny, though I would be happy to trade him for Melky. (Esp. if we sign Livo to the pen as a long man). I thinking with your solid infield that you should really consider John Lanan. He’s not a 2 (unless you are being very generous), but he’s a very strong 3. He’s been a healthy workhorse for the last 3 yrs. Most importantly he’s a groundball machine.

by chubias on Oct 4, 2011 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions

Lannan's a 4/5 at best

He’s about as close to the mythical 1 WAR starter as you can get. We’ve been able to find a couple of those guys as cheap FAs.

by WestCoastRoyal on Oct 4, 2011 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions

Based on what?

His numbers are similar though slightly less than Ivan Nova, who I would rate as a weak 2. Perhaps I am simply overestimating the value of all pitchers.

by chubias on Oct 4, 2011 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Based on what?

His numbers are similar though slightly less than Ivan Nova, who I would rate as a weak 2. Perhaps I am simply overestimating the value of all pitchers.

by chubias on Oct 4, 2011 10:40 PM EDT up reply actions

Lannan really is more of a #4 SP

Going by the most meaningful pitching metrics, he’s been a decidedly below average pitcher in every year of his MLB career. His FIP in almost every season of his MLB career has been about 12% below league average. His xFIP has been about 10% below league average. HIs SIERA and tERA have also been below average. He hasn’t managed as much as 1.5 fWAR in any of his major league seasons. By bWAR (which I think is a less meaningful formulation of WAR), he was pretty good in 2008 and 2009 but genuinely bad in 2010 and 2011, managing less than 1.0 bWAR in both seasons.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 4, 2011 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, of course he looks bad on FIP and xFIP

he’s a ground ball pitcher. His strength is tied to the amount of groundballs he can induce. Although he’s never thrown a GB/FB under 1, you can see a clear colleration between his success and his GB/FB. He’s not going to get a ton of K’s, but he isn’t going to give up as many HRs and xBHs either and he’ll still get the outs. Lannan gave up about 1.50 bases per inning. Grienke gave up 1.58. Obviously, Grienke is stil the better pitcher, but I don’t think that FIP and xFIP properly apprieciate that some pitchers induce a higher groundball rate, and thus give up fewer runs, even if they get hit more frequently. Is this better than a pitcher that lines up 10 Ks a game, no. Is this better than trying to get 10 Ks, failing, and ending up with 5 Ks and 4 HRs? Absolutely. Lannan will probably never throw a shutout or a no hitter, but he’ll give you the consistent good start you need to win. I realize that this doesn’t jive with the goal of sabermetrics in evaluating a single pitcher, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t useful to a team.

by chubias on Oct 5, 2011 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions

You're ignoring SIERA and tERA

FIP and xFIP don’t take GB rates into account. SIERA and tERA do. And those metrics don’t like Lannan much. tERA absolutely hates him. High GB rates are very useful for a pitcher. But they don’t make up for everything else he doesn’t do very well. He really isn’t very good. I don’t see even an average MLB starter there. I’m not saying he’s crap. I’m saying he’s a decent #4 SP (at least in the NL).

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 6, 2011 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions

The Reasoning:

Between Hochevar, Paulino, and Duffy, there are a lot of high hopes. Somewhat founded. Maybe. Then it is filling the other role with a #1, and maybe a #3 whether through:
-Chen (not a #3)
-a prospect (none seem ready)
-a trade (like with the Nats, I guess, but not sure they have a #3 either, not to mention not liking to give up more on top of selling to get a #1)
-a current player (Crow, Holland, Teaford, Maz…probably won’t work)
-a free agent (it is questionable that anyone will be a good value)

by dejezeus on Oct 4, 2011 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions

I didn't realize that

I can understand that Duffy was a rookie and perhaps pulled up earlier than he might have been on another team. The fans are still holding out hope on Hochevar? After four brutal seasons? Is he streaky? Great one day, terrible the next?

by chubias on Oct 4, 2011 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Several writers more articulate than myself have written about him recently

Luke went from being a joke on the verge of Kyle Davies to…well, something to be realistically optimistic about. Before July 3, his K/9 was 4.38. Super duper bad. After? About doubled.

Many reasons have been given: (1) he has located inside more effectively and avoided haning pitches, (2) he has used his slider more often, (3) an uptick in velocity, (4) he allowed fewer walks, (5) fewer HRs and (6) has generally avoided the big inning.

It seems like he may have actually turned a corner. If he learns how to pitch out of the stretch, he could be, y’know…good. But his LOB% is still awful, which could mean that more big innings are in store.

by dejezeus on Oct 5, 2011 2:28 AM EDT up reply actions

I would guess Jordan Zimmerman would be the only guy that fits the bill

And I don’t see the Nats being interested in moving him.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 4, 2011 9:21 AM EDT reply actions

Yeah, I don't see them trading Zimmermann for anything short of a better pitcher.

by chubias on Oct 4, 2011 10:47 AM EDT up reply actions

You can have Tim Smith, David Lough and Paulo Orlando

It would be hard, but I’d be willing to give them up for a true ace.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 4, 2011 9:23 AM EDT reply actions 2 recs

that's a lot to give up...

but don’t be shocked if they demand Irving Falu and Derrick Robison, as well, and to try come out even better.

If women only slept with nice guys...guys would only be nice. And they don't. And we're not.

by setupunchtag on Oct 4, 2011 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Clint Robinson, straight up....

I typed that thru gritted teeth and a typhoon of flop sweat….but I DID IT, and NOW IT IS DONE.

by Nighthawk at the Diner on Oct 4, 2011 11:37 AM EDT up reply actions

I'm personally not willing to give up on Orlando yet.

Not til he repeats AA at least 3-4 more times.

I'm waiting for my wave of talent to arrive.

by mitchfreakingmaier! on Oct 4, 2011 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions

But Der(r)e/i(c) Robinson, a.k.a. "D-Rob," a.k.a. The Next Kenny Lofton

is off the table

Making watching baseball as fun as doing your taxes.
My Twitter feed.
Before getting tweaked, read up on regression.

by Matt Klaassen on Oct 4, 2011 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions

Of course

We can’t mortgage the team’s future.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 4, 2011 12:25 PM EDT up reply actions

As bad as we need pitching

I would even discuss Anthony Seratelli. Has the verseratellity to help someone. He was one of many All-Stars in the organization this year. Must be for pitching, though, and HAS TO be the right deal.

by Rufus R. Jones on Oct 4, 2011 10:48 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

These prospects seem a little young

The Nationals are an organization that respects age (see Livan Hernandez, Ivan Rodriguez, Davey Johnson). In short, I think we should focus on prospects over 30.

by chubias on Oct 4, 2011 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions

An older pitching prospect

named Suppan could be had for the right price I bet. Pitched last year at AAA Omaha, KC keeps passing him over.

by Rufus R. Jones on Oct 4, 2011 11:19 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 2 recs

NO

He has post-season experience. We will need that next October.

Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com

by RoyalsRetro on Oct 5, 2011 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions

See now we're cooking

by chubias on Oct 5, 2011 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions

Zimmerman would be interesting.

Looks like a good young pitcher, unfortunately we really don’t have much hitting depth.

Don’t know if our front office would want to give up Cuthbert or Myers for Zimmerman.

That would leave us with Melky Cabrera,Lorenzo Cain,Christian Colon(probably don’t need a middle infielder), Clint Robinson, and Brett Eibner.

We could add pitching to that trade though which could help us but idk.

by vic1124 on Oct 5, 2011 12:28 AM EDT reply actions

I take this thread as a sign

That Dayton has very quickly put out the Batsignal about his quest for pitching. So fans of other franchises are already cruising RR and sizing up the Royals’ prospects? Not good times.

by thelaundry on Oct 5, 2011 4:27 PM EDT via mobile reply actions

?

Have I don’t something that is truly offensive? I geniunely don’t understand. Obviously, not all of your prospects are going to make it to the big leagues, you have a really good core of postion players, and your rotation was the worst in the MLB. Why wouldn’t you want to trade?

I understand that Royals have a long history of being looted, but your finally on the cusp of contention (assuming you could fix your rotation) and you are upset because a fan thinks that thier team might be able to trade you what you clearly need? I can understand if you didn’t like the trade they were offering. It would be fine for you to blast me because you don’t think John Lanan is a good pitcher or you think the price is too steep. You want to rip on me by offering generally failed prospects, fine. But why wouldn’t you want to trade something to get a solid starting pitcher?

Assume for a second that Grienke hadn’t asked to be traded, would you have been happy with the trade? If not, then why wouldn’t you want to be on the other side of that trade, (ie giving prospects for SP)? Obviously, I am not saying that the Nationals would trade a pitcher that is as a good as Grienke, but why the general disdain for the process?

by chubias on Oct 5, 2011 6:50 PM EDT up reply actions

Because I am very worried that the Royals

Are willing to give up too much in terms of prospects to get a pitcher to front their rotation. The Royals seem to think they are a credible division contender in 2012 if they upgrade their rotation, but I am not nearly as confident as they are. There is potential to actually set the process back by making a big move too soon.

There is a lot of snark, but it’s not personal. It’s a way to get through a long string of losing seasons, failed rebuilding efforts and bad personnel/strategic decisions.

I took your post as a sign of the Royals FO overplaying their hand and announcing they want a pitcher and several top prospects are in play, so much so that fans of other teams take note. I apologize if you feel you’ve been mocked or attacked. A baseball fan should be able to reach out to other fans and talk about trades. It should be fun.

by thelaundry on Oct 6, 2011 11:17 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions

No need for an apology

I was just confused. Personally, I would think that it is a good thing that GMDM would bring as much attention to the team as possible. The price is always high for SP and the best thing that you guys can hope for is multiple teams wanting to trade for your guys. If the White Sox decided to start over, the Astros dump whatever is left, the Dodger’s get sold to another owner who can’t afford them. I’m not really sure who else might be selling pitching.

by chubias on Oct 6, 2011 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the concern is

…that Moore is saying that 1) the Royals are close to contention, 2) all that’s between us and contending is starting pitching, 3) we’re not going after good FA SP’s and 4) the way we’re going to get good SP’s is through trade.

Moore has confirmed, very clearly and loudly that the Royals are highly motivated buyers, and that he’s putting all of our eggs in the trade-for-a-SP basket. This isn’t exactly the strongest bargaining position for Moore to be in.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 6, 2011 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions

+1

Dayton has painted himself into a corner by going public beyond the usual “always looking for opportunities to improve the ballclub.”

by thelaundry on Oct 6, 2011 4:07 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

He was unusually open/candid

Usually he just talks about exploring all avenues and doing whatever he can to improve the team, etc. Maybe he was trying to prepare the fanbase for s there being no big FA signings so that they don’t get so pissed off. Fans love big FA signings, especially when it’s clear to everyone that the Royals can afford big FA signing right now.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 6, 2011 4:32 PM EDT up reply actions

There is plenty of room for him to make a bad deal

but don’t critcize him for doing so until he makes one. So long as GMDM is willing to walk away if the price is too high, then it doesn’t hurt your position. To say he has painted himself into a corner implies that he can’t walk away, which is both false and problematic. Especially since conventional wisdom suggests that the Royals will not be competitive in signing a major free agent, more so given the relative scarcity of top of the rotation guys in this FA class. Perhaps Moore will convince the owner that a substanial payroll increase will make the Royals viable, but if not then you’ll have to trade or wait.

by chubias on Oct 6, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions

But conventional wisdom is what is driving

His assertion that the Royals are a starter or two away from contending. He has guys he likes everywhere except the top of the rotation. Never mind that besides the risk of injury, there are guys who had career years (the entire OF), guys who had their best half seasons (Hochevar and Paulino), with many of the other key guys being very young. Give these guys a chance to show on the field next year they are ready to contend before trading away top prospects, especially Wil Myers, that can help the Royals truly contend in 2013 and beyond.

by thelaundry on Oct 6, 2011 4:51 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

Well, you have to make a decision on that

the longer you wait on prospects to come up, the more risk you run with your current team. I don’t think prentending like are fine with your team is going to earn any points here. There is more than one way to play that. You are right that he could be aloof and detached say the same thing every team in baseball is saying and maybe happen upon a deal. Or he could blitz every trade and make it known that he wants to get a deal done, and that he’ll workout a 6-team mega trade if he has to get the right guys at the right price.

by chubias on Oct 6, 2011 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions

As an aside

I wouldn’t expect to get a true number one. Obviously, I don’t know your farm system so you might. But I think that you would find more value in getting 3 3s instead of a single ace. I was told earlier though that your organization has confidence in 3 guys.

by chubias on Oct 6, 2011 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions

I would be very satisifed to end up

With a 3 out of this, but that probably puts me in the minority of fans, and that is even more so now that the Royals have announced they are ready to acquire a frontline SP as the final piece of puzzle.

Just adding a league average guy who can give them 180-200 IP would be a real improvement over the near full season of starts they sent out Kyle Davies and others not worth mentioning to the mound.

I hope the Royals do pull it together and contend next year, as I do every year. I just don’t EXPECT them to, not yet.

by thelaundry on Oct 6, 2011 5:47 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Plus, you might be able to move Melky

My thread here came from an attempt to locate a lead-off CF for the Nationals. Our OBP is terrible. Several fans at Federal Baseball were not thrilled with the idea because Melky’s negative UZR. But I was more intrigued by a discussion with another friend, who didn’t think that JZimm alone would be enough to get Melky and I wouldn’t have traded JZimm for Melky unless he came with a package of top prospects. So, I came here to see what Royals fans thought. As it turns out, you just have so little faith in the FO that I don’t see y’all liking any deal that isn’t outrageously in your favor.

by chubias on Oct 6, 2011 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions

if DM can get Zimmermann for Melky, i think most around here would have a party

by BeauJackson on Oct 6, 2011 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions

I think his friend's name is Jim Bowden

by thelaundry on Oct 6, 2011 6:22 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions 1 recs

Jim Bowden reminding fans everywhere...

it could be worse!

by chubias on Oct 6, 2011 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Damn right

by Sweep_the_Leg on Oct 7, 2011 10:28 AM EDT up reply actions

As you should.

by chubias on Oct 6, 2011 8:25 PM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, he can walk away, but you don’t want to have to walk away because the other side knows how desperate you are to trade for a good SP. It’s better to look like you don’t need to make the trade because you have many other options, including FA’s.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 6, 2011 4:58 PM EDT up reply actions

Well, the other side doesn't want you to walk either

Besides you aren’t going to convince anyone that you don’t desperately want an ace. Every team outside perhaps the Rays and Phillies, would like another ace. Some other teams such as the Angels, don’t need an ace as much as a back of the rotation guy.

by chubias on Oct 6, 2011 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Fair enough

It’s not hard to see that a team needs an ace, any more than an NFL team that needs a QB.

by thelaundry on Oct 6, 2011 6:04 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

The Royals don't just "desperately need an ace"

They need one or two good (or pretty good) SP’s. I’m not talking about the elite of the elite. I’m just talking about at least average, but hopefully above average or maybe even genuinely good starting pitching. Yes, everybody knows that’s what the Royals need. But Moore has emphasized that not only is that the Royals need, but we desperately need it right now because he thinks the Royals are close and he’s in win-now mode.

The “power of least interest” is a significant force in negotiations. Moore has punted that power to the other side in any negotiations for an SP trade this offseason.

You may know me as NYRoyal.

by Scott McKinney on Oct 6, 2011 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions

the dodgers wont be sold to someone who cant afford their guys

Fire Everyone

by billybeingbilly on Oct 6, 2011 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Probably Not.

But you never know. McCourt bought the team in the first place.

by chubias on Oct 6, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions

And do you really think that Selig

is going to make the same mistake twice by letting another McCourt-type buy them?

by Sweep_the_Leg on Oct 6, 2011 4:19 PM EDT up reply actions

No. But I never doubt the depth of human stupidity either.

by chubias on Oct 6, 2011 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Strasburg for Moose

by david.lowe on Oct 5, 2011 6:53 PM EDT reply actions

Between Zimmerman and Rendon

the Nationals seem to have a logjam at 3B in the near and immediate future. Besides, it would probably take Moose, Hosmer, and Myers to pry Strasburg away from the Nats front office. They’re building that team around him and Harper.

by Sweep_the_Leg on Oct 5, 2011 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions

i was kidding

by david.lowe on Oct 5, 2011 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions

My guess is that they put Rendon at 2nd and use either Desmond or Espinosa at SS

but it depends on what trades they reach in this winter.

by chubias on Oct 5, 2011 8:34 PM EDT up reply actions

Had Greinke not declined the trade to the Nats

Espinosa would already be a Royal, right? Espinosa, Storen, Zimmerman, and a prospect C, right?

by royal_in_cincinnati on Oct 6, 2011 9:02 AM EDT up reply actions

Yeah, I'm pretty glad that didn't go through

I don’t know that I have seen the complete list of players offered, but I think it was something like that. Considering that Zimmermann posted a 3.4 WAR to Greinke’s 3.9 WAR season, and Greinke is a FA next season, it wouldn’t have been worth it. But we had no idea that Zimmermann was coming back from Tommy John so dominant. Storen was a top closer with 40 something saves. As an aside Zimmermann the pitcher has two Ns at the end, Zimmerman the 3b has one.

I’m not sure if it was Flores or Norris that you were talking about for catcher. Norris was more lauded at the begining of the season, but Flores seems to have come back from his injury ok. If he gets back to 2009 shape, then he’s a real find, but it is a risk. He was not domininant this season, but wasn’t getting regular play and returning after a year off.

by chubias on Oct 6, 2011 10:36 AM EDT up reply actions